Argento Chase

Hoping it stays soft enough for Harry Topper to repeat his Charlie Hall performance. Jumped like a brick at Sandown on decent ground before Christmas. Hopefully slower ground will mean an easier round of jumping for him, because he's certainly got the engine for it.

Soft ground is going to be right up Rocky Creek's street. He'd have won the Hennessy with a bit more juice in the ground imo.

I'd be keen on Harry Toppers chances on soft ground. But he'll have to give weight away here as he's won an open company Grade 2. Henderson said he won't run Triolo if soft and BBC weather seems to say rain coming Thurs and a decent amount Friday enough to keep the ground soft I'd hope. So merit in antepost betting I'd say

I'd have to respect Rocky Creek in the conditions. Houblon Des Obeaux is the highest rated horse in the race too.

Hopefully will retrieve losses in Hennessey on Saturday with Rocky Creek at 3s.

Had a small win bet on RC at 5/2 now. He's won on his second start the last two seasons, likes soft ground (current going is soft with unsettled forecast) and there is a possibility Triolo may not run. In any case, he is 5lb better of with Triolo from the Hennessy and 4lb better off with Theatre Guide. PFN has a pretty good record in the race so i'll chance him even if all his best form is on flatter tracks. He's not run since the Hennssy due to a bout of constipation, apparently.

Restless Harry was really impressive last time out, admittedly in a handicap off 122, but he won by 17 lengths and loves Soft too so could be an interesting outsider, if running.

Triolo D’Alene is an unlikely runner if soft ground and clerk of the course maintains it will be soft on Saturday. While there is a lot of rain forecast for Friday. Unioniste is an intended runner in the Skybet as you would expect is likely for Walkon and Time for Rupert would probably be better served exploiting a mark of 143 in a handicap. Champion Court is jocked up for the race, but it would be a very odd decision to run him over 3m1f on Soft, he holds an entry in the 2m5f chase on the same card. Also entered are Restless Harry and Pigeon Island and who knows if they are intended runners and are well below the class required to win this. The Giant Bolster has been way below his best this season and he is easy to pass over here.

That leaves Rocky Creek, Houblon Des Obeaux, Theatre Guide, & Harry Topper - ​Rocky Creek looks to have very solid claims here getting weight and given the conditions but there isn't enough juice in his price. Theatre Guide has run well on his last two starts in good handicap company, but they were on good ground and it will be testing here. Houblon Des Obeaux has had 2 good wins this season but both were at Ascot a track he likes. He ran well there last season as a Novice before running well below that form in the RSA. So I'm not sure he'll like this track as much.

Which leaves me with Harry Topper a horse who will relish conditions, this race often turns into a dour slog like we saw last season. This horse has plenty of stamina and it's easy to forgive his defeat lto as he simly needs these testing conditions. I think Unioniste will advertise the form of his Charlie Hall win in the Skybet Chase. Even though he has to give weight away here I can't see him not at least plugging on for a place so I'm keen to take the price antepost tonight.

So my process of elimination of the week...

1pt e/w Harry Topper 10/1 - Corals


http://jumpsadvisor.com/weekend-preview.html

Good write up and reasoning CV, but I'm going to oppose you with Theatre Guide as I'm not sure he will be too inconvenienced by the soft.  He is worse off at the weights with Rocky Creek compared to the Hennessy but does at least have some decent course form, which most of these don't including Rocky Creek.  TGB does love this place, however, he's not in any form and doesn't like soft although has a win on it. 6/1 seems very fair for Theatre Guide.

Scratch Theatre Guide.

NO.    FORM    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
1     1UB-13        Harry Topper 50 p      7    11-10    Kim Bailey33    Jason Maguire     153     116     164
2     1-72U2        Champion Court 14      9    11-6    Martin Keighley22    Ian Popham     157     163     169
3     74-161        Houblon Des Obeaux 35      7    11-6    Venetia Williams48    Aidan Coleman     159     128     169
4     00UU1        Restless Harry 10      10    11-6    Robin Dickin50    Charlie Poste     141     115     155
5     1113-2        Rocky Creek 56    8    11-5    Paul Nicholls71    Daryl Jacob     157     137     173
6     37253P        Pigeon Island 24 tv      11    11-4    Nigel Twiston-Davies39    Sam Twiston-Davies     129     108     148
7     47-7U5        The Giant Bolster 24 hv1      9    11-0    David Bridgwater38    Tom Scudamore     157     160     182

It's cut up a fair bit. Would guess Triolo and Theatre Guide are missing due to the going.

On form and weights it looks like Rocky Creek should win this, but this race can be just about stamina and hanging in there so he'll have to prove he handles the track.

Wow that's a result, I knew the race would cut up hence I took the antepost e/w but still thought Theatre Guide would run.

Think Rocky, Topper and Houblon will fill the first 3. Champ Court running is baffling!!!

Could I canvas peoples thoughts on TGB in this race , he has ran most of his best races at Cheltenham and won at the late January fixture in 2011 and 2012
admittedly in handicaps but won well , when he has dipped his toe into grade 1 company for the last 2 festivals he was 2nd to synchronised btn 2.1/4l in the 2012 gold cup and he went toe to toe with long run , bobs worth , sir des , s conti etc in last years gold cup only giving in from the 2nd last to the line 3m 2.1/2f (also made a mistake that stopped him in his tracks about 5/6 out but rallied) this was on his supposedly unfavoured soft ground but saw the trip out well on it, as it will also be soft tomorrow over a slightly shorter trip he imo must have a monster chance of winning based on his best efforts. now I know he was well beaten in cue cards haydock race (so was bobs worth and pretty much everything else) and he was jfav with unioniste at Aintree and UR but from previous experiences that's not his course, he was having a day out at the races over HURDLES on new years day here at Cheltenham
as a confidence booster to have him primed for the argento imo. I recall midnight chase winning the race a couple of years ago when Mulholland said this was his gold cup as he was just shy of G1 level but loved the course and I believe the same applies to TGB but he's slightly better than MC again imo.
As the last 6 winners were all aged 9 or 10 he also fits that profile and an article in the weekender singles him out on a statistic that 7 of the last
8 horses who ran to a mark of 165 and put in a performance 20lb below on their last race before the argento went on to win it (hell of a percentage call)
I d love to here both positives or negatives as I blindly feel he's a shoe in. thanks

In addition to previous post his gold cups were at level weights with the cream of chasing however he receives weight from all his rivals tomorrow

Lost my money on Theatre Guide then. Can't see any comments on why he isn't running?

Rocky Creek's lost the 2 rivals imho, so a few quid on to get my stake back, fingers crossed. If he wins well it could be a Gold Cup ride for Darryl Jacob. A good ew shout as after the first 2 in the betting it's wide open.

He has a chance bigblockhead, the form book says he is a very good horse on his day. But he runs more bad races than good ones these days.

The TGB will certainly act on the course and get the trip, obvious worry is the ground.

He's slipped down the ratings because he's been running on the wrong courses,ie Aintree and Kempton, all his best form is on large galloping courses, and not speed courses.

I was personally hoping that Bridgewater would find another totally unsuitable race for him, so his rating would drop even further, with a view for a tilt at the national, who's course would suit him, as would sandowns whitbread.

agreed sintonian but just feel he's a proper Cheltenham horse , he's the only one to win a Cheltenham chase over further than 17f (thanks pigeon island for the grand annual backed at huge odds on the morning of the race) the others have as many if not more questions to answer than TGB he's been there and done it against the best of the last 2 years whereas the others are all potential , beaten Hennessey horses or out of depth , and he gets weight off the lot of them.

twonky , the ground was a worry in the last gold cup but he coped perfectly well on it

I know, tbh, I'm not too enamoured with last years gold cup, but all his best form is on good ground. Tomorrows ground will be worse than last years GC, but, he's acted on this ground before and it's a class below GC standard.

Certainly worth having a saver on him.

Certainly looks a bunch of handicappers lining up tomorrow.

I would sway towards Harry Topper but reserved for in running (more if he still their late on) and the non staying champion court.

Rocky Creek is overrated, so their be some value in this race.

Rocky Creek is well treated by the conditions as novice wins only have half penalties. The Giant Bolster even better treated as he hasn't won since Sept 2012 and has no penalty at all but is he as good as he was?

Ouch! Got that right but only backed Rocky Creek!

well done bigblockhead.

good call bigblockhead !

wd, was a good call on TGB blockhead