Horse Antepost
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Related contingency in ante-post betting?
Related contingency in ante-post betting?
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In the second leg of double, the punter is safe in the knowledge that he horse is good enough to have won the first race, therefore enhancing his chances in the second. The first event will directly impact the market for the second race, which means they are related. If they weren't the markets would remain unaltered. The information gained from the first race is valuable and this is paid for with the reduced price. It's irrelevant what the price for the second leg is when the bet is placed; the double price needs to be calculated at the estimated price that the horse will be should it win, as that is the only scenario with which the bet still stands.
Having said that, more often than not, the special double prices are very stingy, but that's up to the punter to calculate the value. |
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It would be good if Betfair put up some AP doubles markets on the exchange. It'd be interesting to see what the betting would be like.
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I wonder what the special price was for KB to win today and the WH itself
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On the Hurricane Fly example the stranger thing was that he was priced up longer than Jezki and Our Conor for the Champion Hurdle before they met last month but was shorter for the race at Leonardtown.
So the bookmakers before the race had both markets priced up as if they were unrelated. |