Peter Marsh Chase - Haydock Park Saturday 18th January

Looks a good race. The top 2 are entered in the Gold Cup.  The Minack back after over a 2 year lay off.  Chance Du Roy just won the Becher Chase.  Plus improvers from Sydney down who probably need a win to get a run in the National.  I've had a few quid on Vino Griego for the Gold Cup so will stick with him here, goes on Heavy and still improving.  Might have a saver on The Minack in case Nicholls has him ready.

Going to stick with Merry King here, he didn’t get home in the heavy ground in the Welsh National yet he still ended 5th as he did in the Hennessy. He’s got lower contest to contest here and he’s also be dropped 4lbs which can also aid his cause. He’s wearing a first time visor which will help him concentrate more and put a bit more effort in. He’ll like the ground and he has course form, going down a short head to Cannington Brook in similar heavy ground last season, that was off a 2lb lower mark and I expect him to be very competitive in this race.

2pts Merry King  @ 11/2

I like Merry King but feel 2 hard races like the Hennessey and Welsh National must have taken the edge of him. If not must have a chance.

Yeah same here backed him last twice,chance at weights visor may help.

The Minack at 10/1

Got to figure the owner wouldn't have kept him in training and Nicholls wouldn't be running him if he was anything other than concert pitch. Goes well fresh anyway and is unexposed. Being a 10 year old shouldn't be a disdavantage (Our Vic won it as a 12 y-o and According To Pete as an 11 y-o), he'll enjoy the ground and he's been dropped 7lbs during his absence, in a race where class (i.e a highish handicap mark) is far from a drawback based on recent trends.

Katenko, - Tad short, possibly over hyped after Cheltenham win last season. Return to testing ground and yard form a positive.
Merry King, - Two hard runs in the Hennessy and Welsh National. Too short.
Vintage Star, - Didn't see out the trip in the Welsh National lto. He looks to have more to offer over fences.
Sydney Paget, - Hacked up in a fair C+D h'cap on reappearance. More demanded in this company off 10lbs higher and poor lto.
Night Alliance, - Won a competitive renewal of the Tommy Whittle by 11 lengths over C+D lto. 16lbs higher.
Chance Du Roy, - Still on a winning mark after Becher Chase win on reappearance but that was the day.
The Minack, - 10/1 but would rather back at 5/1 with confidence behind him after a long way off. On a winning mark.
Vino Griego, - With his riders claim he's on a fair mark on the bare form of his win at Sandown lto.
Valoroso, - 8lbs out of the h'cap and jumping needs improving but he has potential.
Wychwoods Brook - 7lbs out of the h'cap negated by riders claim but up 11lbs for cls4 win lto. Unexposed.

I quite like Vintage Star but it was only three weeks ago he slogged around Chepstow so I'll only be having a saver on him. I prefer Vino Griego who showed plenty of alacrity when winning at Sandown and he seems underestimated by the market. If he were to win a handicap off 157 then he'd have to enter the Gold Cup picture.

surprised the handicapper as dropped merry king 4lb for its hennessy and welsh national runs,he was hardly tailed off finishing 6 and 5.
will stick with him tomorrow.

Does anyone know how the course varies from the one used for the Betfair chase in November. My feeling is that was a very tight course which really didn't suit gallopers. Is the course the same or has it reverted back to the 'normal' haydock track?

Chases are run on the flat course, which is the outer course, joining the old chase course in the home straight. Hurdle course on the inner.

Small bet on Katenko for me given the heavy ground.

So Vino Griego to win this then Gold Cup?

Can't have Katenko because his two runs this season have n't convinced me he's over the operation for severe colic (keep thinknig about Camelot) and can't have Vintage Star or Merry King because they completed in a race that can leave a mark on very testing going only three weeks ago.

I will go with Chance Du Roy, stable in form, great effort last time and still feasibly handicapped on his old form - in fact his effort in the Becher suggests he might have scope for improvement for step up in trip.

Most afraid of Vino Griego and Sydney Paget - if the latter performs as he did last time over CD he must have a great chance but this is a much better race.

So, Chance Du Roy it is - good luck, all.

ReaseHeath   

You dismissed the winner very easily there.

not dismissing anything, mac - just expressing my thoughts.

My reasoning does n't mean they can't win - agree with earlier comments that Merry King is starting to look like a well handicapped horse, just a bit quick after the Welsh National for me and he's only seven, his trainer does produce 'em hard as nails though.

Perversely, I'd be probably be more interested in either of them if they had n't completed in Welsh National. The only Welsh National runners to reappear so far are Red Rocco and Hey Big Spender who were both pulled up in Welsh National and their subsequent races.

It's just a theory and enough to put me off them in a very trappy race, I appreciate I might have to review it tomorrow night.

No problem Roseheath,
Niceone.
Merry King has been laid out for the race.

I had a problem with Chance Du Roy, wondered if his win round the National fences was a specialized affair?
Take that away, then of course he comes into the argument in a big way.
Good luck to you.

you too, mate

should be a cracking contest.

katenko for me gl all

rogerthebutler Joined: 01 Mar 03
Replies: 9018 16 Jan 14 21:04   

The Minack at 10/1

Got to figure the owner wouldn't have kept him in training and Nicholls wouldn't be running him if he was anything other than concert pitch. Goes well fresh anyway and is unexposed. Being a 10 year old shouldn't be a disdavantage (Our Vic won it as a 12 y-o and According To Pete as an 11 y-o), he'll enjoy the ground and he's been dropped 7lbs during his absence, in a race where class (i.e a highish handicap mark) is far from a drawback based on recent trends


Note to self - avoid opening your mouth on a forum. Best to keep quiet and be thought an idiot than to spaeak and prove it!

On a more serious note, how gutting is that for the owners? Keep it in training for 700 days only for it to fall at the first fence on its comeback. Didn't look too clever for the horse from waht the viewer could see either, notwithstanding the commentator saying he was up on his feet again. Hope I'm wrong.

Bit harsh on yourself there Roger, didn't look a bad shout, he'd been of interest to me for The Skybet Chase next week, was just one of those things, as you say, they'd have to have been happy with him to have kept going.

Yeah, horrible for the owners, I think PN was going to tweet on his wellbeing this morning, Just hope it's good news, though I really fear the worst the way he ran off.

Agree Fabulous. Looked a perfectly reasonable shout from Roger. No horse in the race was without question marks.

Thanks guys.

You just feel twenty shades of ar$e when you come on with a chin-stroking post about a 12/1 shot you've got the hots for - and the damn thing falls at the first!!

rogerthebutler- The Minack is a bit sore and is having his knee looked at, I read this on a thread on horseracing.

I remeber in 86 telling a lot of people at work that Door Latch would win the National part of my reasoning was Jim Joel owning it. Door Latch fell at the first, my misery was complete the following April when Maori Venture won the National for Jim Joel without a penny of my money on it

you're not alone roger, if you look at my contribution I could hardly have got it more wrong.

Nicholls said The Minack is having an Xray on his knee tomorrow - I assume they just want to check that he has n't damaged the knee which kept him out for such a long time before yesterday.