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BETFAIR HURDLE
Saturday 8th February 2014ALL ODDS Favourites:Irving (12), Dell Arca (14), Quick Jack (14), Smashing (14), Willows Saviour (14), Cheltenian (16), Flaxen Flare (16), Garde La Victoire (16), Ptit Zig (16), Rolling Star (16), Stand To Reason (16), The Skyfarmer (16), Upazo (16), Ally Cascade (20), Chris Pea Green (20), Deep Trouble (20), Gilgamboa (20), Ifandbutwhynot (20), Marito (20), Melodic Rendezvous (20) |
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The King pair of Montbazon off 140 at first glance could be well handicapped if he can get him back and Vendor off 138 now he has started to deliver what they've always thought of him could be well handicapped too. 20's both of them.
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Be interesting if Snake Eyes gets a run before the race ala MTOY to get a mark to get into the race.
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Fcuk me Montbazon is alive. No doubt in my mind he is well handicapped of his mark but that's if he is the same horse, and you would want to see the yard have some winners first.
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Vendor is interesting, though. He won well at Newbury last time out and 8lb rise I thought was fair. He was entered in the Ladbroke Hurdle too but i'm guessing they didn't run there due to stable form? Or perhaps they just wanted to save him for this given 2 of his wins since coming to the UK have been at Newbury. Off 138 he will be attractively weighted and I think I shall have a small bet at 20/1, despite obvious concerns about stable form.
I was a big fan of Montbazon in his early days but it's a right gamble backing him at this moment in time, esp when stable has another likely, more suitable candidate. |
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4 weeks until race .. will wait a week or two as I can't see him being backed until the yard turns a corner.
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How long was AK lockin down his year for due to that bug? Would put me off any of his till i saw him av a few winners tbh
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Looks a good race and looking forward to being there. Usually go to Hennessy but first time for this. Will wait till nearer the time before punting though as looks incredibly difficult. If Ptit Zig won this would have to be considrerd for Champion. Very tough ask.
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Not sure BJG, 2-3 weeks I think. Agree though, his horses cannot be backed ante-post until he's had some winners.
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King did have one entered in the Classic Chase at Warwick, Saturday, but isn't running now.
Has one in the Victor Chandler the following weekend. |
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Kashmir Peak, 25-1, has to be the plot. Flat track, left handed, big field, nice "how will he run in blinkers" on the all-weather lto. Beat Sametegal at Donny last season and is now set to get 14lb. Nice.
Clearly does not go at Cheltenham and should just sneak in at the bottom though wouldnt be surprised to see him land a small prize to get a penalty after the weights come out, just to make sure. Ding, dang, doo ![]() |
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I really hope Melodic Rendezvous is fit and well to line up, would make my season.
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Irving now goes for this en route to the Supreme, ala Darlan and MTOY. Irving is rated 143, so could be a good move as if he is a genuine Supreme winner/level, then by the end of the season he could be rated 150. That said, is the trainer thinking more about the trainers title with this move? The race is worth about 30k more to the winner than the Supreme is.
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I like Irving a lot.
But lets be honest, he has acquired at rating without really beating anything. ok one or 2 decent horses. I would have it at 138++++ |
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Quite possibly Ibra, though I remember similar comments about MTOY & Darlan. Irving has not really had a hard race yet. Hard to tell isn't it?
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Rolling star and Cheltenian pricewised
16-1 Rolling looks like another Henderson star On his Ladbroke run, it would be hard to suggest Rolling Star is a likely winner of the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury next month, but I don’t think that was anything like his form and at 16-1 he looks a decent bet to win a race his trainer Nicky Henderson has won five times. Rolling Star has been a little disappointing since hacking up in Grade 2 at Cheltenham on his debut for his current yard, especially when a well-beaten sixth when favourite for the Triumph Hurdle. However, Henderson still holds him in the highest regard, often mentioning him in the same breath as last year’s winner My Tent Or Yours and only yesterday confirming his entry in the Champion Hurdle. Clearly his homework is that of a high-class horse and if he can perform as his connections think he is capable of, then his current mark is not that harsh at all. The Ladbroke is the stumbling block as he was never really travelling behind Willow’s Saviour, but he was pretty strong in the market that day and the Henderson horses weren’t in anywhere like the same form as they are now. He looks the number-one stable choice at this stage and given what a record the trainer has in the race, he is worth backing at his current odds. The other one I like is the former Champion bumper winner Cheltenian. He’s clearly had plenty of problems and it was a really weak race he won at Uttoxeter last time, but on his bumper and early hurdles form he appears to be thrown in off a mark of 134. Of course there are inexperience worries because the Betfair would be only his fourth run over hurdles, but the same is the case for the current favourite Irving. Furthermore, Philip Hobbs has been having a good season with his handicap hurdlers. At the start of last season Cheltenian was caught on the line by a good horse who is now rated 145; the well-beaten third Valdez has looked one of the best novice chasers around and the fourth is a highly regarded horse as well. That to me was one of the better non-Graded novice hurdles run all last season and even on that form there is every reason to think Cheltenian is well handicapped. Connections still hold out hopes of him going for one of the novice races at the festival, and if that is the case he has to have a massive chance in a handicap off his current mark. Irving has to be a big danger to all. He was a good horse in Germany on the Flat and has progressed with every run over hurdles. However, while he was impressive at Ascot last time, I’m not convinced by the form of that race as the third horse that day has been beaten out of sight at Warwick and the horse who was upsides until falling at the last was thrashed in the Tolworth. Nevertheless, he could only beat the horses put in front of him and there is likely to be plenty more to come as the season progresses. Willow’s Saviour has to run well too. He is 13lb higher than when winning at Ascot but that was deserved as he looked to win with loads in hand. The way he travels in his races suggests he might be up to handling his rise in the weights, but this is going to be a better race at a different track and there is a feeling he might have shown his hand now. Of the Irish, the form of Quick Jack’s win at Cheltenham is looking better all the time and his trainer Tony Martin is always a man to fear in these big two-mile handicap hurdles. He won the County Hurdle with a similar type in Ted Veale last season but that one took in the **** Hurdle at Leopardstown first and I just wonder whether that will be the route Quick Jack takes. As a consequence, I can’t suggest backing him just yet. Maybe Marito for Willie Mullins might be of interest if he lines up, but the Irish trainers tend to target the race at Leopardstown at the end of this month rather than the Betfair Hurdle, so who knows whether he will turn up or not. Today's bets Rolling Star 1pt win at 16-1 generally Cheltenian 1pt win at 16-1 generally |
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I would hold your money on Cheltenian as he needs over 20 to come out just to get a run. Not saying he's not well weighted but certainly isn't an AP play at this stage as looks unlikely to get a run!!!!!! No bookies NRNB either as insurance.
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You'd get your money back if he didn't make the cut, as long as he was left in until the final decs.
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Yes you would Deeping, but when trainers realise that they aren't going to get a run they look for and enter in different races. All I'm saying is, it's a very risky bet and very unlikely to run, so why tie up your money and hope it is left in just to get a refund. Cheltenian will be double figure odds anyway with a 20+ field.
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Irish Saint 152 (+12) so will be 7lbs well in if running in the Betfair Hurdle.
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willow's saviour out with a pulled muscle.
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Had nibble on Dell Arca 14/1 loves the soft cant be anything else at moment,maybe heavy/off?
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Was keen on one for this and was all ready to back him but trainer told me he's not running. Think they're doing the Imperial Cup / Cheltenham combo attempt.
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If you will CV what horse are you talking about?
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Hmmm....... Not swing bowler is it Sint???
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Sorry cvbyrne
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Think he means Dell Arca, be nice to be informed by trainer in public?
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Cv are you are stating Dell Arca not running re trainer, plenty of money to lay.
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The owner said it's running in a sporting life bit on Lion Rouge or whatever it's called
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Well I backed Vendor last weekend after Valdez one. I hope that is a sign the stable are returning to form but of course it's still open for debate. At least there is some money queueing up to back him now. If he runs/improved stable form by next saturday he is a 12/1 chance in my book. Won twice at the track on soft ground. 20/1 worth the risk.
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PFN has confirmed both of Irving & Irish Saint will run.
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No hurdle races at Sandown tomorrow so maybe Melodic Rendezvous will run here instead.
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I think trainer of MR said would go for the Kingwell Hurdle on 15th Feb.
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@Sintonian: When did he confirm this?
He said a few weeks ago that Irving "might" run at Newbury en route to Supreme Novices but had missed the Tolworth due to heavy ground. Maybe he will miss this too due to heavy? When did he actually say he is running? Cheers? |
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@ gamerawins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irKc-_59j70 comfirms he runs there 2 mins in |
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I think Nicholls is making a mistake.
Far West was his original main horse for this and I sincerely hopes he still goes for it as he is the best of the PFN entries. I hope he hasn't been put of running him just because the bookies say his other two are favs. The bookies are wrong as FW will prove to be a much better horse than those two. I wonder does this vid mean he definitely doesn't run? That would be silly. Hmmmmm |
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Un Temps Pour Tout
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Axom website (owners of Irving & Far West) says that Far West is being aimed at Imperial Cup @ Sandown on March 8th.
Combine this with the recent video released by PFN & it would seem certain FW is a certain non runner in the Betfair. |
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FLAXEN FLARE and Quick Jack, two of the leading fancies for Saturday's Betfair Hurdle, have been ruled out of the race.
Flaxen Flare is as short as 10-1 for the Newbury contest, but will not run according to trainer Gordon Elliott, while Tony Martin has blamed the handicap mark given to Quick Jack in Britain for his decision to keep the horse in Ireland, adding the Cheltenham Festival was also off the agenda. RELATED LINKS Betfair Hurdle betting Owned by Pat Sloan, Flaxen Flare ran one of the races of his career to finish second to Gilgamboa in the ****.com Hurdle at Leopardstown last month. Both he and stablemate Rocky Wednesday are engaged in the Betfair Hurdle, but Elliott said: "Neither of them will run." Quick Jack, who finished third in the ****.com Hurdle when a heavily backed favourite, was a general 12-1 chance for Newbury, but Martin sees little point in running the horse off his British mark. "He couldn't win off 119 at Leopardstown and a mark of 136 is way too high over there," said Martin. "What's the logic in that? He won't be going to the County Hurdle either and he'll be staying in Ireland." |