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betilyerded
17 Dec 13 19:53
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Date Joined: 03 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 824 | Blogger: betilyerded's blog
I realise theres already a thread on the Ladbroke but just thought this was worth looking at, as sometimes something so bleedin obvious hits you between the eyes that you need to sit up and look.
Gordon Elliott won this last year when 4yo Cause of Causes hosed up. This year he has another similar chance with Flaxen Flare, a 4yo given almost an identical prep. Theyve both been second in the Galway hurdle, won a small field hurdle in Ireland then ran placed in the Greatwood at Cheltenham. There is though a glaring difference.
Prior to running second at Galway off 131, Cause of causes had won 2 ordinary hurdles from 6 starts. Prior to running 2nd at galway off 135, Flaxen Flare had won 2 hurdles including dossing up at the Cheltenham Festival and running a very creditable 4th at Aintree. Flaxen Flare gets in on saturday off 141. Cause of causes won off 142. Admittedly the latter was much a far closer 2nd at Galway than the former and was also closer in the Greatwood but the image of him running away at the festival is difficult to shake off and, in reality has gone up 14 lbs for winning there, running second in the galway hurdle, 4th at Aintree and winning at Cork.
Gordon Elliott is clearly very adept at improving juvenile hurdlers into older horses - look at the way Carlito Brigante trotted up in the Coral Cup off 142 improving greatly between 4 and 5. He is also a target trainer and its always worth noting when he does flag one up as a target, as this one was at the start of the season.
Flaxen Fare is tactically adept, running well in small and large fields and has top form in both good and soft ground. The only negative is the absence through injury of Davy Condon who has a 1,2,1,4,2,1 record on the horse.
That apart, 16-1 is a  decent price for me as I simply think the handicapper has got him shy of his proper rating in comparison to what his stable mate had achieved last year prior to victory.
Then again, I could be completely and utterly wrong!!
Pause Switch to Standard View Flaxen Flare v Cause Of Causes - A...
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Report Paddy Hair December 18, 2013 10:38 PM GMT
You could have something there, Trainers are creatures of habit.
Report HaylingBilly December 19, 2013 5:54 PM GMT
Thats a really good spot and write up. Thanks for sharing. Certainly got me thinking. Am currently heavily invested in CHATTERBOX and looking for a second option. I think you have just convinced me. Good luck.
Report betilyerded December 19, 2013 7:50 PM GMT
Was wondering who would ride so mixed emotions about Richard Johnson. Has a 2 from 4 for the stable over hurdles in past 5 years but on short priced fav's in nothing races. Will certainly get a ride from him either way. There could also be travel issues which is why Ive waited until 48 hour decs just in case they cant get over. Not a huge amount of support past few days but then Cause of Causes was friendless when he won so not overly concerned about that. Sill think he will run well and hopefully good enough to win!
Anyone on Chatterbox like yourself or Totalise will be feeling very smug with themselves I would think.
Report sintonian December 19, 2013 8:34 PM GMT
Nice observation Betil. I hope he runs well for you but not well enough to beat Chatterbox.
Report betilyerded December 21, 2013 5:56 PM GMT
Well that was brutal and glad to get a place return in the end. Still feel theres more to come on better ground.
Report sintonian December 21, 2013 6:05 PM GMT
yep, well done with place money.
Report HaylingBilly December 21, 2013 7:25 PM GMT
betil - I owe you one mate…….Cheers.
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