**Ladbroke Hurdle**

Dell' Arca, Sametegal, Rawnaq and Flaxen Flare, the first four home in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham last month, are among 57 entries for The Ladbroke at Ascot on Saturday, December 21.
The sponsor has installed the first two home as the 12/1 co-favourites of six for the two-mile £150,000 Grade Three handicap hurdle, alongside Nicky Henderson's Blue Fashion and Rolling Star, and potential Irish raiders City Slicker and Quick Jack.

Henderson is the most successful trainer in the contest, having captured the prestigious and valuable prize with Sentry Duty (2008), Jack The Giant (2007), and Chauvinist (2002).

His eight-strong entry also includes the classy River Maigue, Snake Eyes and Chatterbox, who finished second to Ifbutandwhynot on his seasonal return in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury last week.

The progressive Dell' Arca made the perfect British debut when landing the Grade Three Greatwood Hurdle. His trainer David Pipe is also responsible for Shotavodka, Ronaldo des Mottes, Swing Bowler, Waterunder and Dan Breen.

Auteuil Grade One scorer Ptit Zig is among six entries for seven-time champion jump trainer Paul Nicholls, while Alan King, successful with Raya Star in 2011, has entered Grumeti and impressive Newbury victor Vendor.

Gordon Elliott was victorious last year with Cause Of Causes and could bid for a repeat victory with this year's Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle hero Flaxen Flare, who was last seen coming fourth in the Greatwood Hurdle and is one of seven Irish-trained entries.

Rawnaq fared best of the Irish raiders at Prestbury Park and trainer Michael Smith is hoping his charge can reproduce that effort at Ascot. The six-year-old completed a hat-trick of wins during the summer months, before finishing a respectable seventh on heavy ground in the Galway Hurdle.

Smith, who has just eight horses in training, reported: "All being well, Rawnaq will run in The Ladbroke.

"He has come out Cheltenham well and is in good form. I was delighted with his performance there but we were expecting a big run as he was in such good form.

"We expected the same in the Galway Hurdle, but he came back sick and ran a great race for a horse that wasn't well. It was bottomless as well and he is much better on better ground.

"During the summer, he won a Flat race and two hurdle races really impressively and then ran two good races on the Flat before Cheltenham.

"I've had my licence for nearly a year now and it's great to be associated with a horse like him.

"He is still improving and we think he will be even better over a longer trip. We will wait and see how he gets on in Ascot, but we have always thought further the better for him because he does stay two miles on the Flat."

Other notable entries include Elite Hurdle victor Melodic Rendezvous and Pine Creek who landed a Listed handicap hurdle decisively over the course and distance last month.

111-15    Melodic Rendezvous21      7    11-12    Jeremy Scott     152    150    160
131-21    Ptit Zig41      4    11-11    Paul Nicholls     151    125    147
31/4-3    Grumeti21      5    11-11    Alan King     151    135    159
1165-1    Rolling Star28      4    11-10    Nicky Henderson     150    130    157
332-12    Sametegal34      4    11-10    Paul Nicholls     150    138    153
411-87    Court Minstrel34      6    11-9    Evan Williams     149    136    157
15-112    Call Me Bubbles48F      4    11-9    W P Mullins     149    137    155
PP0-08    Get Me Out Of Here34      9    11-9    Jonjo O´Neill     149    136    155
141-42    Blue Fashion28      4    11-8    Nicky Henderson     148    —    155
17-922    Shotavodka21      7    11-4    David Pipe     144    134    152
21173    Rawnaq34      6    11-3    Matthew J Smith     143    138    154
114-2    Chatterbox23      5    11-3    Nicky Henderson     143    138    159
292-21    Caid Du Berlais15    4    11-3    Paul Nicholls     143    142    154
2128-3    River Maigue14      6    11-2    Nicky Henderson     142    133    152
1213-F    Irish Saint23      4    11-2    Paul Nicholls     142    142    153
167-23    Chris Pea Green23      4    11-2    Gary Moore     142    138    154
4-2134    Flaxen Flare34      4    11-1    Gordon Elliott     141    141    154
376-04    Ruacana14      4    11-1    John Ferguson     141    136    152
213-20    Zuider Zee28      6    11-0    John Ferguson     140    134    154
331-52    Doyly Carte28      5    11-0    Donald McCain     140    125    155
9F-301    Ifandbutwhynot23      7    10-13    David O´Meara     139    137    152
63U-01    Vendor21      5    10-12    Alan King     138    123    152
2U70-0    Cash And Go34      6    10-12    Nicky Henderson     138    126    158
11P-93    Clondaw Kaempfer14      5    10-12    Donald McCain     138    121    155
423-11    City Slicker34      5    10-12    W P Mullins     138    127    155
P64/41    Dunraven Storm29      8    10-11    Philip Hobbs     137    127    152
14615    Waterunder14      6    10-11    David Pipe     137    146    152
4P03-9    Ronaldo Des Mottes14      8    10-11    David Pipe     137    111    160
115-16    Pine Creek34      5    10-11    John Ferguson     137    137    156
1/130-    Swing Bowler284      6    10-10    David Pipe     136    145    157
7/003-    Kazlian14F      5    10-10    Johnny Farrelly     136    139    156
145F3-    Landscape244      5    10-10    Venetia Williams     136    101    155
2121    Dell´ Arca34      4    10-10    David Pipe     136    137    152
2000-1    Ranjaan26      5    10-9    Paul Nicholls     135    124    152
307-04    Dan Breen29      8    10-9    David Pipe     135    137    158
28-050    Vulcanite14      6    10-8    Charlie Longsdon     134    94    140
315-3F    Kaylif Aramis36    6    10-8    Nigel Twiston-Davies     134    131    155
2275-1    Upazo21    5    10-8    W P Mullins     134    106    145
1115/0    Recession Proof35      7    10-8    John Quinn     134    68    143
1655/8    Alaivan14      7    10-8    Jonjo O´Neill     134    137    146
11/B-7    Lexi´s Boy14      5    10-8    Donald McCain     134    140    151
2O10-    Bordoni283      4    10-6    John Ferguson     132    108    148
3/25-3    Dildar49    5    10-6    Paul Nicholls     132    142    155
26-117    Makari49      6    10-5    Nicky Henderson     131    125    155
500-11    Quick Jack36      4    10-5    A J Martin     131    135    150
2115-    Totalize48F      4    10-5    Brian Ellison     131    137    153
7486-1    Knight Of Pleasure34      4    10-5    Gary Moore     131    136    157
U05-68    Sarabad37      5    10-4    W P Mullins     130    112    152
52P-11    Willow´s Saviour43      6    10-4    Dan Skelton     130    143    159
84233-    Chesil Beach Boy254      10    10-3    John Coombe     129    121    156
2111-    Karazhan328      5    10-3    Nicky Henderson     129    —    —
113    Franciscan29      5    10-2    Donald McCain     128    118    155
1450/1    Moujik Borget28      5    10-1    Venetia Williams     127    —    156
224-20    Seventh Sky14    6    10-0    Charlie Mann     126    142    158
4-F238    Milord14    4    9-12    Kim Bailey     124    138    154
3/24-4    Snake Eyes51      5    9-11    Nicky Henderson     123    125    143
2P6-80    Whitby Jack14      6    9-7    Gary Moore     119    120    157

I would be very interested in Blue Fashion in this. He may be better suited by 2m4f, but that's the only negative I could put on him. Yes Hendo has a bucket load entered, but he will probably run 3 or 4, and there isn't much else for him to run in at the moment. Second to the hugely progressive More of That lto, he has been given a 5lb raise, but that looks very fair in the light of yesterdays win for his conqueror. BF and MOT, travelled like much the best horses in that highly competitive handicap, and considering Hendos have been coming on plenty for their first run, I would expect the same of this lad. Plenty of 2 and half milers have won this event before, and at 16s, he looks worth an investment. Obviously if anyone knows that this is definitely the target, it makes it much better.
Sint, Lads have decided not to price this lad up, otherwise would gladly take 14s, or even 12s there.

Agree alleged 14/1 nr no bet cracking price, given rain that has fallen as well, im in!

Quick Jack likely to stay in Ireland apparently.

I can't make head nor tale of this race at the moment. Going to wait for next dec stage.

Really like Recession Proof here , had a nice tootle around Cheltenham at the Paddy Power meeting on his return off a long absence over a distance about a mile further than he's ever been before.

Back on the same mark he won the Totesport Trophy off in 2011.

His only hurdles run inbetween those two efforts was the 2011 Supreme Novices hurdle - he was 5th beaten 8 lengths, the first four were Al Ferof, Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card.

Of course, he might not be as good as he was but 33/1 is a reasonable price to pay to find out.

I had a horse in mind for this race and like Double Ross last week I  had my write up ready to post once he was in the 5 day Decs. Alas Dildar is not among the 5 day decs and that write up is now gone to waste haha so we move onto the remainder of the shortlist.

I had two antepost plays in this already, City Slicker was one I was keen on as Mullins had said he would go for this race next after his win at Punchestown last month. The other antepost play as I said was Dildar who is not in the 5 day decs. City Slicker is now best priced 8/1 and given there is plenty of rain about I’m struggling to see any value in that antepost price. If he were that price day of the race though he could still be tempting. But as he’s entered on Friday also in a Nov hurdle he could take up that option if he gets better ground.

Instead we need to look elsewhere. With the key for me being the likely going, there seems to be rain every day this week including plenty of Friday which will likely mean soft ground. Which gives us the perfect angle to tackle this race, horses who will improve for this ground. Three jump out at me straight away. Chris Pea Green 16/1, Shotavodka 25/1 & Ruacanna 40/1 all three have run fine races on their last start and all three will really benefit from soft ground.

We’ll start things off with 1pt Chris Pea Green, 0.5pt Shotavodka & 0.5pt e/w Ruacana.

I’ll do a full write up on the weekend preview section of http://jumpsadvisor.com/weekend-preview.html

Willows Saviour is mildly interesting as he looks progressive for his new trainer but he too is entered in the Grade 2 noivce race on the Friday.

Pine Creek won well on his previous run at Ascot and is interesting too. Has won twice on Soft but for some reason get the impression he is better on a sounder surface? Dunno.

Illegal to apply Rule 4 to ante-post wagers with or without NRNB.

certainly DOES in shop

Tattersalls Rule 4 states that NO DEDUCTION shall applied to ante-post bets.

Some of you might find this interesting:

The Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle takes place at Ascot on Saturday, 18th December. Always a highly competitive affair, it is generally won by more unexposed improving types. Last year’s race was abandoned.

Below we take a look at the 8 runnings in the past decade.

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-7-27
5yo: 5-6-52
6yo: 1-7-32
7yo: 2-2-18
8yo: 0-1-15
9yo+: 0-1-10
8 of 8 winners have been aged 5 to 7
Horses aged 8+ (0-2-25) have a very poor record having gained no wins and just 2 places from 25 runners.


Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 7-13-97
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 1-11-57
Horses carrying 10-9+ have won 7 of the last 8 (including the last 6) and have filled 19 of 24 places in the last 6 renewals.

Official Ratings

Horses rated 140 or higher: 1-2-16
Horses rated 130 to 139: 4-10-77
Horses rated 129 or lower: 3-12-61
No strong trends on official ratings.


Recent/Past Form

5 of 8 winners won last time out
7 of 8 winners finished in first 3 last time out
6 of 8 winners gained their highest RPR on their last outing
7 of 8 winners was having seasonal debut or had run once that season
7 of 8 winners ran in 4 to 10 times over hurdles beforehand
7 of 8 winners had run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles
6 of 8 winners were second season hurdlers (2 exceptions were third season hurdlers)
5 of 8 winners (last 5) ran at that year’s Cheltenham Festival


Other races

Previous year's winner: 70 (0-0-2)
WilliamHill.com H'cap Hurdle winner (Tocca Ferro):  1 (1-0-1)
Gerry Feilden Hurdle winner (Tocca Ferro): 5 (0-0-1)
Totesport Trophy Hurdle winner (Get Me Out Of Here): 0 (0-0-1)
3 of 8 winners ran in the Caspar Caviar H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 321
2 of 8 winners ran in the Swinton Hurdle, finishing 01
2 of 8 winners ran in the County Hurdle, finishing 70
5 of 8 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (2 County Hurdle, 1 Arkle, 1 Triumph & 1 Supreme Novices)


Trainers

Nicky Henderson (3-2-13) has won 3 of 8 runnings to date, including the last 2.
The Pipe stable (3-2-21) have also won the race 3 times since its inception in 2001.
Venetia Williams (1-1-6) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have previously won the race.
Trainers who have saddled multiple placed runners are Gary Moore (0-3-10), Philip Hobbs (0-3-12) and Paul Nicholls (0-2-7).
Irish trained runners (0-2-15) have gained just 2 places from 15 representatives.


Price

5 of 8 winners have been priced between 7/1 and 14/1
Favourites (1-0-8) have a poor record having won just once in eight runnings, leaving a level stakes loss of 4.75.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 5 to 7
Finished in first 3 last time (ideally won)
Posted their highest RPR last time
Carrying 10-9+
Run no more than once this season
Run in 5 or less handicap hurdles
Ran at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival
Second season hurdler
From either the Pipe or Henderson stables


Still like Chatterbox for this

Totalize smashed up this evenin

Cause of Causes won it as a 4 yo last year and Raya Star carried only 10-01 the year before that

I am treading caution on the move for Totalize, though it is interesting all the same. The reason being is just the betting volume. It's moved all rates down from 44 yet has only shown a total of
Total matched on this event:     £12,998
Betting summary - Volume:     £914
Last price matched:     13.50

Would be interesting to see what price he is Saturday morning and how strong he is in the market.

All over Chatterbox, secured the 14s Monday morning nrnb so happy bunny. Now to just wait for Saturday morning see whats strong and whats not in the market and pinch some juicy prices from the PW table for a couple of savers bets

Looks like you've got a decent bet at 25/1 BJG. Tops 14/1 now.

Ascot stick readings from last season :

21-Dec-12 Heavy (Soft in places) C: 5.9
H: 5.9
21-Dec-12 Heavy C: 6.4
H: 6.5
on Thursday at 08:30
24-Nov-12 Heavy C: 6.3
H: 6.9
24-Nov-12 Soft C: 6.4
H: 6.7
on Friday at 09:00
23-Nov-12 Soft C: 6.8
H: 6.6


Currently 6.6 on hurdle track as of 8-30 this morning.. Almost certain to be heavy

Interesting jockey booking on Totalize .. Wayne Hutchinson. He won the race on Raya Star.

Williow's Saviour gets in right at the bottom too. Would be quite something if Dan Skelton could land a race like this in his first season.

Interesting that BJG opts for Rolling Star though David Bass has a good record for NJH too.