Horse Antepost
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Tingle Creek
Tingle Creek
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He won a couple times over the extra trip so if what's been said is true and he was weak then he's every chance this year to get the trip, either way, the entries over the trip are no surprise because they have no choice, other than SS being out like this week there is nothing for him over 2 miles, they have to target and work towards the Ryanair.
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Captain Conan is my idea of the winner now. Unbeaten over 2miles as a chaser. Has Sire De Grugy held on last seasons form. I also think the arguement that Sire De Grugy has progressed past him will prove hollow. He hasnt beat genuine graded horses to earn his inflated mark. A defeat to Kid Kassidy is worrying and Henderson will know where Conan is in Comparison to the Kid. And id suspect Conan is he bigger hope going forward. Somersby doesnt win often enough to interest me but I expect a decent run. While the headgear needs to work the oracle for kauto stone who on recent form doesnt look too clever.
Also if I was the owner of Arvika Ligeonnaire I would be entered up for this expecting to win and then be having a crack at the king george on boxing day. If u have a horse as good as he is going right handed surely you'd go for the big prizes this winter while confidence is high. The horse isn't getting any younger. Its a shame for the horses followers that we wont see it. |
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Yep,Mullins and co will be kicking themselves imo,would have really fancied him for this race.
Duffy, Its all very well going up in trip to avoid clashing with yer stable superstar,just as long as the horse don't suffer for it.We don't know how strong the horse will be this season,so the Ryanair, which is a top race now, is open to question. One thing for sure,until I see him finish off a 2m 5 race at the required level I wont be backing him for a Ryanair. |
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I was more or less laughed at on the Cheltenham section a few weeks back for suggesting the Tingle Creek as an ideal race for Arvika
 He's half a stone better than anything in here in my opinion. I wonder why Sizing Europe has never ome back here after his easy win two years ago? Would have a favourite's chance on last season's form. I'm with Captain Conan now, glad he's been dropped in trip, won the Henry VIII here last season over two miles. Beat Sire De Grugy easily last season and goes well fresh. |
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There is momentum building behind CC. He might go off favourite. Is it worth pointing out lots of people were saying avoid Nicky's first time out this season or not?
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whatys wrong with sprinter?
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Pregnant.
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A double for the Moores at Sandown today.
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wd sint, good solild performance there
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Hacked up. A good weekend for the Moores.
CC wants a trip imo. |
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yeh, well done sint, good winner in the end.
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cheers Stevie.
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yep, well done sint - this non-believer is now a convert, he was very good there.
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I think he is better right-handed tbh.
On another note, Flemenstar is out of the John Durkan tomorrow, lame. |
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Sounds like sour grapes being a CC fan but I'd still back him again against sdg with the run under his belt, he got desperately tired late on, still can't see the winner that highly rated,but I often miss the blindingly obvious!
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you'd have to say the official handicap ratings were pretty much spot on and he's beaten Oiseau about 8 lengths further today than he did in the celebratiion cup last season.
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CC travelled like the best horse in the Jewson but found nothing at the finish too. He may well come on for the run as tbh I suspected they were going to run in the December Gold Cup as a prep race for the King George. He only ran today because SS was out but I think SDG has improved past him anyway.
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Added SDG now into my champ chs book at 16s laddies. Ok, may not run, and track/ground may not suit but at 16s against a horse that would be 2nd fav on the day with very few runners and 3 places worth the risk imo!
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yep price seems ok. Maybe look at the without SS market.
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"He won't necessarily go to Cheltenham as I think he needs a more conventional track. For some people it's the be all and end all, but not for me. I'd like to take him to France at some stage."
would nt touch him AP tbh myself but do like the horse |
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Somersby jumped bl00dy awful and still beat Captain Conan and imo would have won the race had he jumped.
Still that not to put SDG down,he jumped better and deserved to win. Going forward this season I would be looking at Somersby's prices if they met again,think hes the better horse...when he jumps as he can do. |
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Somersby's performance interested me too - I'll need to go back and look at his jumping but my first impression was that he was just tapped for toe in the back straight.
I've liked both his efforts this season in comparison to his abbreviated campaign last year - trouble is going to be finding the right race, form book says Cheltenham is not his track but I'd be inclined to target the Ryanair on the assumption that Sprinter and Cue Card will go in opposite directions. I'm sure he'll turn up for the Victor Chandler but liable to run into Sprinter again there. |
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It werent good rease,but he still managed to travel into the race,and then when he was just behind the winner at I think the pond fence(maybe the one after),he fecked up again.
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I thought that CC travelled like the best horse and got desperately tired, we know he's got no question marks over him as a 2 miler remember, the question is whether he'll stay further, he finished yesterday like he didn't stay 2 miles, he didn't travel like a horse that needs further as like I say he travelled best, he badly needed it IMO, they won't meet again but I'd back him again against SDG next time for sure if it happened.
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Somersby needs a trip, Captain Conan in my opinion is trip less. And i would back SDG against both again and again, even over 2m 4f at Cheltenham!
About the 16/1 voucher i now have for the champ chs, i looked at the post the trainer supposedly said about looking at the French racing around about that time in the year and can't see he will myself. Surely finishing 2nd or 3rd even in a champ chs will accrue more money than winning a race in France  And should he even remotely get close to SS at xmas, i can see him being a certain starter. Also with it already looking a small ish field. At 16/1 defo worth the risk, what if something untoward were to happen to SS £50 place money for my tenner each way, al take that thank you very much! |
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If something happened to SS you wouldn't have a small field, if Cue Card ran poorly or threw up another question re : trip he'd back in it at a shot, you're better off having ss running and keeping everyone away for the place part, remember, he hates the track too.!
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Yeah your probably right lol.
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perhaps ss running and unseating at the first with no harm to horse or jockey?
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Don't forget Simonsig folks. IF something did happen to SS then he'd be the first one to line up. That's if he is OK too after his minor injury.
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Forgot all about him
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what did you all think of the winner? I think he's about the most overrated horse around and the form of the Tingle is very poor. But what do I know, I bet a horse that horse that ran with choke out but was desperate to find something.
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I bet SDG in the champ chs cos its most likely to be 2nd or 3rd fav behind SS in the market in a race very likely to not throw up very much depth amongst the opposition to SS, with likely hood of less than 8 runners, and 3 places thus making it one of the filthiest each way races within antepost rules. A reason i think why most books only went 7s and 8/1 after the tingle creek.
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Never been sure of the ante post rules regarding each way and small fields just to clarify if their was only 5 runners on the day and you have one of the 5 on an ante post bet each way do you still get 1, 2, 3, on your selection???
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Yes mate you do, you get whatever the place terms were for that race at time the bet was struck. If you keep an eye on place terms for vaious antepost markets on oddschecker you will see on markets where the books expect there to be less than 8 runners sometimes when still there maybe 8+ entries that they only offer 1/4 1-2 antepost, other times where it could be 50/50 less than 8 go to post they could still offer 1/5th 3 places, even on markets where generally they would be 1/4 all races on the day such as at cheltenham. When backing antepost each way, you always have to check whatever the place terms of the bet are and work out for yourself if it is good value or not. You are always weighing those quandaries up!
Each way antepost is not always good value though i like it. There has been a couple of occasions in the past where i have backed something with place terms of 1/4 1-2-3 and 4 went to post and the race in fact on paper was very much a match, this was a long time ago now but my selection finished 3rd and i was paid! This was in the days before internet and was only thanks to a friend i kept the ticket lol! |
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Just to clarify:
20 entries = antepost 1/4 1-2-3-4 16 @ final declaration stage, normal market = 1/4 1-2-3-4, if one non runner normal market changes to 1/4 1-2-3 but antepost stays 1/4 1-2-3-4 even if only 4 run with 12 non runners! |
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^
The Cathcart was always the best race in the calendar for this. |
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But it does work both ways, you get paid out at whatever the place terms were when the bet was struck no matter how much the race changes from time of bet to race time. So if you backed something with 12 entries and you got 1/4 1-2-3 antepost, then the race was re-opened or during a supplementary stage and 4+ horses were added, your bet stays at 3 places, even if the day of race market is now paying 4!
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SEATHESTARS....NO1 09 Dec 13 07:52 Joined: 04 Oct 09 | Topic/replies: 2,561 | Blogger: SEATHESTARS....NO1's blog
I bet SDG in the champ chs cos its most likely to be 2nd or 3rd fav behind SS in the market in a race very likely to not throw up very much depth amongst the opposition to SS, with likely hood of less than 8 runners, and 3 places thus making it one of the filthiest each way races within antepost rules. A reason i think why most books only went 7s and 8/1 after the tingle creek. I'm guessing you got A* in English Language, STS?  BTW, it is dangerous to assume SS will have few opponents. On the face of it there is not much at the momemt but over the course of a season there are always improvers in each of the classic races. |
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No sint, i got a F in Enhglishddd lol
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One more word of caution, 16's sounds great on the face of it but in reality it's 6/4 a place and you're only really playing for 2 places, plus he doesn't like the course and plus plus he is a horse that will sort of be in there actually half trying to win so they could bollox him trying to do just that rather than trot round and pick up a place...but that's all worst case scenario
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