Horse Antepost
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Some wild moves in the market already. You'd think SS was a doubtful starter.
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He is very doubtful
A bad Trachea wash and an unlikely runner |
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where would he go next?
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victor chandler in jan
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tar v much
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THE Tingle Creek Chase is in danger of losing its headline act after trainer Nicky Henderson sensationally revealed Sprinter Sacre is not certain to run on Saturday due to an unsatisfactory tracheal wash.
The superstar chaser, who is unbeaten over fences and was among 11 entries for the BetVictor-backed Grade 1 contest unveiled on Monday, will be tested again on Thursday morning before the final declarations are made. Henderson said: "We routinely give the horses a tracheal wash every Monday morning and though Sprinter Sacre's looked normal the figures from the laboratory told us otherwise. "If the figures are the same when we test him again on Thursday then he won't run. "At this stage I’m certainly not ruling him out, I’m just issuing a warning. I have known horses that appear wrong on Monday and be perfectly alright on Thursday. A fortnight ago My Tent Or Yours wasn't too clever. "Unfortunately it's something you can't treat - it's an absolute nightmare and I wanted to let everyone know as soon as possible. We only got the test results back at four o'clock this afternoon. "It's very disappointing but you cannot take chances especially with a horse like him, but don't rule him out yet." More to follow . . . |
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Could be carnage on here.lowest laid looks about 1.17/1.18 !!
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I always thought scoping a horse was to find out whether they had a cold or not too, so if SS has a cold, as he scoped dirty on Monday and he was clean last week cos hendo says they routinely scope every horse every monday morning, he aint going to be clean Thursday all of a sudden is he
 Sprinter is probably a runner imo, been watching the market all day today, every time money appears at 2, it gets snapped up down to as far as 1.8 at one stage, hendo after siome wages maybe Say he might not run, get odds against a 1/6 poke, xmas money, bit like the Chatterbox/MTOY race last seasonNever known a stable with stars like it, theres a few stables with stars that runs in the big races that could be short prices and just dont do that, hendo seems to have been doing it at least last few years, some have run, not many haven't! |
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The saddest thing about it is betfair will obviously suspend this market as soon as it looks like theres an announcement to be made but the saddest truth is there will always be people out there that no, we will probably no for sure Weds night into Thursday morning just by watching the market.
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SS is 1.93 on here, you could back him at that price and then save on Sire De Grugy at 4/1 incase he does not make, as he is the next most likely winner and a 6/4 chance if SS is out.
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I've took a chance that he runs, a dirty scope could just be a minor cold, a bit of bacteria in his mucus, could easily have cleared up by now. Got 6/4 after commission about a 1/6 shot!
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He's out Marko.
Sire De Grugy to win? |
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out!
reported by SSN. Will they really wait until Victor Chandler in Jan with risks around the weather possibly a factor at that time of year? There is Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton on second day of King George meeting, would have thought he is eligible for that? |
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Just gave some money away there then, oh well I knew the risk. Fair play to hendo for letting everyone know asap. Actually makes it a better race, Hes gna run Captain Conan now instead.
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Interesting that they're prepared to give Captain Conan a shot at this when Kid Cassidy had the beating of Sire De Grugy at Cheltenham.
Somersby looked rejuvenated at Exeter too, my first impressions are to prefer both those to Sire De Grugy. |
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Crap of Betfair not to re-open the market having cancelled unmatched bets though. Seem to remember making this criticism a few dozen times before too...
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Kid Cassidy was getting 10lb from SDG at Cheltenham and he is probably a better horse around Sandown. Fascinating race now anyway.
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Captain conan beat sire de grugy as a novice quite easily, sire de grugy has race fitness but I suspect just doesnt have the ability of CC and I cant have somersby, so for me hendo still wins it.
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yep, I'm probably over-complicating things, Captain Conan has a chase win over Sire De Grugy though albeit on soft ground at Cheltenham.
Agreed, should be a cracker now. |
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billies going even money sire de grugy, are you kidding me!! CC 3/1 somersby 3/1, I'll take even money the pair against him every day thanks, CC a better horse on his own but I'll take the cowards way out and throw in somersby just in case.
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I've taken 9/4 about SDG. I think he is an improved horse since meeting CC previously and he was not originally targetted for this race. I find it interesting that his last 3 runs were all over 20f and his expected debut was over 20f too in the December Gold Cup. Maybe the trainer sees him as more of a middle distance horse now? We'll see.
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1 11151- Captain Conan247 6 11-7 Nicky Henderson53 Barry Geraghty 159 136 165
2 3F42-7 His Excellency20 b 5 11-7 David Pipe54 A P McCoy 148 111 158 3 1P7P-5 Kauto Stone35 b1 7 11-7 Paul Nicholls74 Daryl Jacob 153 — 146 4 42RR-6 Mad Moose20 h1 9 11-7 Nigel Twiston-Davies40 Dave Crosse 143 114 163 5 314-54 Oiseau De Nuit20 t 11 11-7 Colin Tizzard50 Brendan Powell 154 161 165 6 411-12 Sire De Grugy20 7 11-7 Gary Moore77 Jamie Moore 169 165 177 7 34U-1 Somersby32 9 11-7 Mick Channon50 Dominic Elsworth 161 155 168 8 575F-5 Tataniano20 9 11-7 Richard Rowe40 Andrew Thornton 147 130 155 9 P5-036 Viva Colonia14 8 11-7 Brian Ellison64 Leighton Aspell 139 141 152 |
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There is 10lb between them on ORs, Duffy.
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sint, do you not think that Sire De Grugy's rating is a little questionable? I'm not overwhelmed by the form of either of the races which saw him leap from 145 to 169 - when I look at the beaten horses, I think there are question marks over whether most of them ran to their best form.
Captain Conan's Sandown form ain't too shabby either. |
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should be clearer, the handicap win at Chepstow is hard to knock but I think the value of the Celebration Chase win at Sandown is questionable when you look at the beaten horses.
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Interesting price differentials here - Laddies 9/4 SDG with Billy Hills 5/4.
I really like SDG and thought his Chepstow performance was 170+ (which would easily be enough to win on Saturday now). He obviously jumped poorly LTO and was giving away 10 pounds to an improver. That being said, even rating Kid Cassidy generously at 155, he only put in a 160-162 performance latest. THe question is, is that good enough to win on Saturday? |
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I do think overall SDG has just about the best form over 2 miles but this OR of 169 seems a bit high to me. I felt that most of the runners in the chepstow contest did not run to form and at cheltenham perhaps Special Tiara went a shade quick and is that horse also overrated and is Oiseau De Nuit past it?
It could be SDG is still really a 160 horse and therefore would not have that much in hand. Though I still see him as just about the likliest winner but no t for me at the price. |
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yep you can question it Rease. I remember Tataniano winning the same handicap chase at Chepstow off a high mark (who was then a 4/1 chance for the Tingle Creek himself afterwards but got injured prior), so I don't think there is usually much strength in depth to that race. However I do think if he jumps better than last time out he'll beat these. He stumbled at the 4th and had a mistake at the 6th. Captain Conan may be good enough to win and he could have improved but i'm not sure this is the right trip for him tbh,especially on Good ground.
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I really don't understand why they keep running Mad Moose.
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If SDG was a genuine 169/170 horse then I'd be pricing him up around 4/7 with 6/1 the other 2. But I think it's more like 162 vs 2 x 160 horses. So 9/4 SDG and 3/1 the other 2 is about right. No bet in the race for me yet.
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I'd be of the opinion that if CC had run in all the races that SDG did last year, the ratings, well, SDG's anyway would look a bit different, I know it's a long time ago, but on debut CC was comfortably the better horse, he went on to run over a trip that last year at least was the wrong trip for him, but was still able to put in good runs in the jewson and at aintree, SDG 16lb leap up the ratings from beating a declining FR is highly questionable I would have thought, only opinion though but I hope that CC is a better horse than SDG.
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I would have the same suspicions too Duffy, however it wasn't just Finian's Rainbow in that race, some fairly other decent horses in behind and actually SDG was still technically a novice when running in that race.
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Fascinating race though with very differing opinions price wise, when else could you get a 9/4 shot being priced up at evens/5/4 somewhere else
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What about tactics? will Geraghty try and make all at his own pace. If he gets his own way and into a good rhythm then he could be hard to get past.
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If I were the owner of Arvika L, I would be thinking why did we not make an entry??
And any idea where Overturn is?? Not a great renewal now imo. |
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No telling how good CC might be at 2miles....stable only went the 2m4f route because of Simonsig.
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Agree with ELG there, I think I read somewhere that he was regarded as a bit weak last year and as he's a big horse it could be that this year he'll be able to develop into a 2.5 horse,you'd still be more than hopeful he'd be able to to himself justice over 2 miles though, ultimately I'm hoping he will develop into a big player for the ryanair with the strengthening up he's apparently done.
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it's his entries in staying type races that interest me tbh.
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He was certainly weak when walking over the line at Sandown last season,he will need to be a lot stronger than that if hes to be top notch at 2.5 imo.
At the moment for me he is a 2 miler. |
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Should add it was very soft when he struggled home at Sandown,and if he has strenghtend and on better ground he could be a threat in a race like the Ryannair I guess,but when I saw him in the nov chase at Sandown this time last year I was very impressed with him,it was quiet soft that day I recall.That was over 2m and I think at this stage its his optimum distance.
I expect him to win the Tingle Creek. |