Horse Antepost
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121-15 Tidal Bay35 12 11-12 Paul Nicholls 163 56 172
86203- Teaforthree266 9 11-2 Rebecca Curtis 153 162 170
3P11F/ The Minack679 9 11-1 Paul Nicholls 152 — —
21113- Rocky Creek267 7 11-0 Paul Nicholls 151 146 171
12F-41 Dedigout48 7 10-13 A J Martin 150 126 169
21224- Super Duty267 7 10-11 Donald McCain 148 148 170
2131-5 Godsmejudge42 7 10-11 Alan King 148 110 170
3612-0 Same Difference56 7 10-10 Nigel Twiston-Davies 147 157 171
2P0-96 Join Together55 8 10-9 Paul Nicholls 146 114 147
2710-5 Across The Bay56 9 10-9 Donald McCain 146 107 115
2F8P-5 Quartz De Thaix45 9 10-8 Venetia Williams 145 134 145
2175-1 Sydney Paget35 6 10-8 Donald McCain 145 136 169
0/P4-2 Silver By Nature35 11 10-8 Lucinda Russell 145 104 172
15U-0P Terminal101 6 10-7 W P Mullins 144 146 170
F5-176 On His Own61 9 10-7 W P Mullins 144 148 165
1356-2 Highland Lodge62 7 10-6 Emma Lavelle 143 164 175
1521-4 Poungach49 7 10-6 Paul Nicholls 143 152 170
1162-0 Goulanes42 7 10-6 David Pipe 143 121 173
7711-U Quentin Collonges42 9 10-5 Henry Daly 142 154 168
21372- Vesper Bell246 7 10-5 W P Mullins 142 134 171
2643-P Bostons Angel233 9 10-5 David Pipe 142 126 163
P52P-4 Hey Big Spender63 10 10-3 Colin Tizzard 140 157 174
116P-1 Nuts N Bolts35 7 10-3 Lucinda Russell 140 115 172
1220-2 Merry King56 6 10-3 Jonjo O´Neill 140 104 171
814-12 Beeves63 6 10-3 Donald McCain 140 135 163
5103-3 Sam Winner42 6 10-3 Paul Nicholls 140 139 171
1103-9 Wyck Hill56 9 10-3 David Bridgwater 140 153 171
111P-0 Well Refreshed70 9 10-2 Gary Moore 139 124 177
421-01 Midnight Appeal45 8 10-2 Alan King 139 153 169
3P1-25 Goonyella34 6 10-1 J T R Dreaper 138 127 172
11/P-2 Victors Serenade48 8 10-0 Anthony Honeyball 137 — —
212P-1 Vintage Star47 7 10-0 Sue Smith 137 133 174
212P- Hawkes Point290 8 10-0 Paul Nicholls 137 108 173
090-84 Saint Are35 7 9-13 Tim Vaughan 136 133 166
3P0-FP Pete The Feat45 9 9-12 Charlie Longsdon 135 113 176
F/43-2 Mister Marker55 9 9-12 Nicky Richards 135 121 167
3131-7 Amigo58 6 9-12 David Pipe 135 81 101
37-313 Gas Line Boy35 7 9-11 Philip Hobbs 134 78 165
21U5-2 Loch Ba45 7 9-11 Mick Channon 134 155 168
P-3313 Storm Survivor77 7 9-11 Jonjo O´Neill 134 147 167
1022-0 Chartreux101 8 9-11 Tom George 134 126 166
374-4 Alfie Sherrin35 10 9-11 Jonjo O´Neill 134 142 164
02-U3 Swincombe Rock41 8 9-10 David Bridgwater 133 154 167
3156-8 Panther Claw34 7 9-10 Paul Nolan 133 148 165
8-2113 Sivola De Sivola56 7 9-10 Tom George 133 113 167
502-20 Knock A Hand35 8 9-10 Richard Lee 133 129 164
1241-3 Mountainous45 8 9-9 Richard Lee 132 153 168
1117-6 Emperor´s Choice41 6 9-9 Venetia Williams 132 143 171
3P-03 Ace High35 9 9-9 David Pipe 132 70 166
874-26 Tour Des Champs42 6 9-9 Nigel Twiston-Davies 132 138 165
1P823- Real Milan248 8 9-9 Donald McCain 132 133 166
139-41 Handy Andy43 7 9-8 Colin Tizzard 131 129 160
15586- Sraid Padraig293 7 9-8 A J Martin 131 91 150
17PP-1 Harouet78 8 9-7 Peter Bowen 130 98 162
2114-2 Red Rocco35 6 9-7 Nigel Twiston-Davies 130 94 164
5P-PP Halley55 6 9-7 Tom George 130 — —
3411P- Safran De Cotte283 7 9-7 Henry Daly 130 133 159
5192-5 Ballyoliver49 9 9-6 Venetia Williams 129 145 163
40-331 Boyfromnowhere41 6 9-6 Rebecca Curtis 129 147 162
5111-2 Denali Highway42 6 9-5 Caroline Bailey 128 149 163
3342-1 Global Power55 7 9-5 Oliver Sherwood 128 124 159
1180-1 Yellow Ball219 5 9-5 Venetia Williams 128 — 139
U2044 Rockyaboya34 9 9-4 W P Mullins 127 116 161
12PP-P Relax35 8 9-4 Venetia Williams 127 159 170
PP56-5 Going Wrong37 10 9-4 Dan Skelton 127 107 158
123-F3 One In A Milan36 8 9-3 Evan Williams 126 143 158
1-174F Living Next Door34 7 9-3 A J Martin 126 59 158
2441-P Netminder70 7 9-2 Sandy Thomson 125 122 158
3FU1- Valoroso287 8 9-2 Richard Woollacott 125 124 157
2F132- Fentara252 8 9-2 Tim Walford 125 142 163
1021-7 De La Bech49 6 9-1 Philip Hobbs 124 108 156
53126- Big News271 7 9-0 Richard Lee 123 132 156
131P-8 Monsieur Cadou55 8 8-13 Tom George 122 87 156
03P-00 Restless Harry35 9 8-13 Robin Dickin 122 79 156
1F-228 Lamboro Lad49 8 8-13 Peter Bowen 122 135 157
4261-7 Flying Award41 9 8-12 Susan Gardner 121 116 158
130-32 Unoccupied55 7 8-11 Eoghan O´Grady 120 95 151
P-8FR4 Triggerman34 11 8-10 Philip Hobbs 119 110 154
355-75 Our Island35 8 8-10 Tim Vaughan 119 132 163
127-75 Rebeccas Choice47 10 8-9 Dai Burchell 118 150 155
3313-5 Milo Milan58 8 8-8 Richard Lee 117 143 155
U2-534 Incentivise35 10 8-8 Richard Lee 117 140 154
1F-2F1 Bendant36 8 8-8 Debra Hamer 117 121 152
3P-URP Sarando36 8 8-5 Alex Hales 114 — —
531P-1 Papamoa59 8 8-4 N W Alexander 113 115 146
52U1-P Mister Philson35 8 8-1 S R B Crawford 110 78 144
211-PP The Clyda Rover41 9 8-0 Helen Nelmes 109 113 141
1137-4 Xaarcet48 6 Colin Tizzard 118 63 102
86203- Teaforthree266 9 11-2 Rebecca Curtis 153 162 170
3P11F/ The Minack679 9 11-1 Paul Nicholls 152 — —
21113- Rocky Creek267 7 11-0 Paul Nicholls 151 146 171
12F-41 Dedigout48 7 10-13 A J Martin 150 126 169
21224- Super Duty267 7 10-11 Donald McCain 148 148 170
2131-5 Godsmejudge42 7 10-11 Alan King 148 110 170
3612-0 Same Difference56 7 10-10 Nigel Twiston-Davies 147 157 171
2P0-96 Join Together55 8 10-9 Paul Nicholls 146 114 147
2710-5 Across The Bay56 9 10-9 Donald McCain 146 107 115
2F8P-5 Quartz De Thaix45 9 10-8 Venetia Williams 145 134 145
2175-1 Sydney Paget35 6 10-8 Donald McCain 145 136 169
0/P4-2 Silver By Nature35 11 10-8 Lucinda Russell 145 104 172
15U-0P Terminal101 6 10-7 W P Mullins 144 146 170
F5-176 On His Own61 9 10-7 W P Mullins 144 148 165
1356-2 Highland Lodge62 7 10-6 Emma Lavelle 143 164 175
1521-4 Poungach49 7 10-6 Paul Nicholls 143 152 170
1162-0 Goulanes42 7 10-6 David Pipe 143 121 173
7711-U Quentin Collonges42 9 10-5 Henry Daly 142 154 168
21372- Vesper Bell246 7 10-5 W P Mullins 142 134 171
2643-P Bostons Angel233 9 10-5 David Pipe 142 126 163
P52P-4 Hey Big Spender63 10 10-3 Colin Tizzard 140 157 174
116P-1 Nuts N Bolts35 7 10-3 Lucinda Russell 140 115 172
1220-2 Merry King56 6 10-3 Jonjo O´Neill 140 104 171
814-12 Beeves63 6 10-3 Donald McCain 140 135 163
5103-3 Sam Winner42 6 10-3 Paul Nicholls 140 139 171
1103-9 Wyck Hill56 9 10-3 David Bridgwater 140 153 171
111P-0 Well Refreshed70 9 10-2 Gary Moore 139 124 177
421-01 Midnight Appeal45 8 10-2 Alan King 139 153 169
3P1-25 Goonyella34 6 10-1 J T R Dreaper 138 127 172
11/P-2 Victors Serenade48 8 10-0 Anthony Honeyball 137 — —
212P-1 Vintage Star47 7 10-0 Sue Smith 137 133 174
212P- Hawkes Point290 8 10-0 Paul Nicholls 137 108 173
090-84 Saint Are35 7 9-13 Tim Vaughan 136 133 166
3P0-FP Pete The Feat45 9 9-12 Charlie Longsdon 135 113 176
F/43-2 Mister Marker55 9 9-12 Nicky Richards 135 121 167
3131-7 Amigo58 6 9-12 David Pipe 135 81 101
37-313 Gas Line Boy35 7 9-11 Philip Hobbs 134 78 165
21U5-2 Loch Ba45 7 9-11 Mick Channon 134 155 168
P-3313 Storm Survivor77 7 9-11 Jonjo O´Neill 134 147 167
1022-0 Chartreux101 8 9-11 Tom George 134 126 166
374-4 Alfie Sherrin35 10 9-11 Jonjo O´Neill 134 142 164
02-U3 Swincombe Rock41 8 9-10 David Bridgwater 133 154 167
3156-8 Panther Claw34 7 9-10 Paul Nolan 133 148 165
8-2113 Sivola De Sivola56 7 9-10 Tom George 133 113 167
502-20 Knock A Hand35 8 9-10 Richard Lee 133 129 164
1241-3 Mountainous45 8 9-9 Richard Lee 132 153 168
1117-6 Emperor´s Choice41 6 9-9 Venetia Williams 132 143 171
3P-03 Ace High35 9 9-9 David Pipe 132 70 166
874-26 Tour Des Champs42 6 9-9 Nigel Twiston-Davies 132 138 165
1P823- Real Milan248 8 9-9 Donald McCain 132 133 166
139-41 Handy Andy43 7 9-8 Colin Tizzard 131 129 160
15586- Sraid Padraig293 7 9-8 A J Martin 131 91 150
17PP-1 Harouet78 8 9-7 Peter Bowen 130 98 162
2114-2 Red Rocco35 6 9-7 Nigel Twiston-Davies 130 94 164
5P-PP Halley55 6 9-7 Tom George 130 — —
3411P- Safran De Cotte283 7 9-7 Henry Daly 130 133 159
5192-5 Ballyoliver49 9 9-6 Venetia Williams 129 145 163
40-331 Boyfromnowhere41 6 9-6 Rebecca Curtis 129 147 162
5111-2 Denali Highway42 6 9-5 Caroline Bailey 128 149 163
3342-1 Global Power55 7 9-5 Oliver Sherwood 128 124 159
1180-1 Yellow Ball219 5 9-5 Venetia Williams 128 — 139
U2044 Rockyaboya34 9 9-4 W P Mullins 127 116 161
12PP-P Relax35 8 9-4 Venetia Williams 127 159 170
PP56-5 Going Wrong37 10 9-4 Dan Skelton 127 107 158
123-F3 One In A Milan36 8 9-3 Evan Williams 126 143 158
1-174F Living Next Door34 7 9-3 A J Martin 126 59 158
2441-P Netminder70 7 9-2 Sandy Thomson 125 122 158
3FU1- Valoroso287 8 9-2 Richard Woollacott 125 124 157
2F132- Fentara252 8 9-2 Tim Walford 125 142 163
1021-7 De La Bech49 6 9-1 Philip Hobbs 124 108 156
53126- Big News271 7 9-0 Richard Lee 123 132 156
131P-8 Monsieur Cadou55 8 8-13 Tom George 122 87 156
03P-00 Restless Harry35 9 8-13 Robin Dickin 122 79 156
1F-228 Lamboro Lad49 8 8-13 Peter Bowen 122 135 157
4261-7 Flying Award41 9 8-12 Susan Gardner 121 116 158
130-32 Unoccupied55 7 8-11 Eoghan O´Grady 120 95 151
P-8FR4 Triggerman34 11 8-10 Philip Hobbs 119 110 154
355-75 Our Island35 8 8-10 Tim Vaughan 119 132 163
127-75 Rebeccas Choice47 10 8-9 Dai Burchell 118 150 155
3313-5 Milo Milan58 8 8-8 Richard Lee 117 143 155
U2-534 Incentivise35 10 8-8 Richard Lee 117 140 154
1F-2F1 Bendant36 8 8-8 Debra Hamer 117 121 152
3P-URP Sarando36 8 8-5 Alex Hales 114 — —
531P-1 Papamoa59 8 8-4 N W Alexander 113 115 146
52U1-P Mister Philson35 8 8-1 S R B Crawford 110 78 144
211-PP The Clyda Rover41 9 8-0 Helen Nelmes 109 113 141
1137-4 Xaarcet48 6 Colin Tizzard 118 63 102
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she said with the Welsh National there is always a weather concern and he's well enough to have a crack at the Hennessy.
Can understand it, nearly 5 weeks since he ran so they'd be between a rock and a hard place if Welsh National abandoned or postponed
Can understand it, nearly 5 weeks since he ran so they'd be between a rock and a hard place if Welsh National abandoned or postponed
...also I suppose after last season's nightmare she's keen to run them whilst they're in good form and rude health.
Of course, she might end up with egg on her face if he has a tough race on Sat without winning, then she runs him in Welsh National unsuccessfully and that leaves a mark on him for the rest of the season.
Of course, she might end up with egg on her face if he has a tough race on Sat without winning, then she runs him in Welsh National unsuccessfully and that leaves a mark on him for the rest of the season.
yes fair point, best to run them when fit and well.
Sustained support for Safron De Cotte (25's to 16's) and not pricewise inspired either. Due out on Sunday at Carlisle which suggests a big run is expected and stable going very well.
always thought this race was made for merry king,todays run in the hennessy as not put me off.
Generally speaking you want to avoid any horses who ran in the hennessy in this race, not enough recovery time between the two.
I quite like Hawke's Point, before Cheltenham he had beaten Gullinbursti and also finished 2nd to Harry Topper and in front of Bensalem and Pearlysteps. Those lines of form suggest to me he is a mid 140s horse, and you'd think from watching his races the welsh national would be ideal as he had looked a dour stayer until the cheltenham run. I have had some small amounts on here at 28 and 30 so far.
Alfie Sherrin jumps off the page for me. Trainer has a fine record in such races and thought he ran a cracker against some unexposed types in the Fixed Brush hurdle. Not that many miles on the clock for a 10 year old and stamina assured, think he has to be on anyone's short list.
Im not a trends man but Ive always made it a rule not to back ANYTHING that ran in the Hennessy in the Welsh National - just feel its an after-thought rather than the plan (my records go back 18 years and the winner has never come from the race). I broke that rule a few years back and fell for High Chimes after a staying on 6th in Hennessy. Welsh trainer, won on heavy, Chepstow form etc. etc. Ran a stinker and pulled up. Will never do it again.
As for a 10 year old winning it... Riverside Boy, 1993. Only Martin Pipe when he won it 5 years in 6 managed to pull it off.
Save your money on Alfie Sherrin and back him for Aintree, for that surely is the plan. Just remember Richie McLernon after he won at the festival 2 years back immediately saying he would love to ride him around the national fences as hes some tool. Jonjo plays the long game, as we all know, and my moneys down already - 33-1 5 places at Betvictor.
As for a 10 year old winning it... Riverside Boy, 1993. Only Martin Pipe when he won it 5 years in 6 managed to pull it off.
Save your money on Alfie Sherrin and back him for Aintree, for that surely is the plan. Just remember Richie McLernon after he won at the festival 2 years back immediately saying he would love to ride him around the national fences as hes some tool. Jonjo plays the long game, as we all know, and my moneys down already - 33-1 5 places at Betvictor.
Yes Alfie Sherrin is a national plot,ran last week in same hurdle race as sunnyhillboy did on route to his great run at Aintree.
Heavy ground would be against Alfie as well
Heavy ground would be against Alfie as well
Synchronised ran in the same race too before his win in the Lexus. Jonjo clearly uses it as a prep for one of his best staying chasers.
Alfie? Alfie who?
Anyhoo, thats Safron de Cotte off my WN shorltlist after that laboured performance. Strong in the market today which suggests this wasnt a warm-up and well backed ante post last couple of days.. I pressumed they had waited for the weights to come out to run him under a penalty so all in all a pretty mediocre performance.
Hoping to see Emperors Choice entered up at Chepstow next weekend.
Anyhoo, thats Safron de Cotte off my WN shorltlist after that laboured performance. Strong in the market today which suggests this wasnt a warm-up and well backed ante post last couple of days.. I pressumed they had waited for the weights to come out to run him under a penalty so all in all a pretty mediocre performance.
Hoping to see Emperors Choice entered up at Chepstow next weekend.
pretty encouraged by HBS effort yesterday, over a distance short enough on a flat track and on ground as lively as he would want plus the first two pulled well clear and the second appears to be an animal of some potential (but I'm biased so I would say that!)
Another to catch my eye on a circumstantial basis is One in a Milan - trainer on record as stating he knows the horse is well handicapped and looks like he might have had his mark protected for this - he's entered over fences at Ludlow on Wednesday so we might learn a bit more then.
The weather is becoming a slight cause for concern - don't think I'm alone in assuming this will be a slog in the mud but it's been unseasonally dry and there is virtually no rain in the forecast for Monmouthshire over the next 10 days, they race at Chepstow next Saturday so let's see how the track is riding then. Appreciate it's the best part of a month away yet and both weather and forecast can change quickly.
Another to catch my eye on a circumstantial basis is One in a Milan - trainer on record as stating he knows the horse is well handicapped and looks like he might have had his mark protected for this - he's entered over fences at Ludlow on Wednesday so we might learn a bit more then.
The weather is becoming a slight cause for concern - don't think I'm alone in assuming this will be a slog in the mud but it's been unseasonally dry and there is virtually no rain in the forecast for Monmouthshire over the next 10 days, they race at Chepstow next Saturday so let's see how the track is riding then. Appreciate it's the best part of a month away yet and both weather and forecast can change quickly.
It was a good effort by HBS though he obviously gets a penalty so is a little less attractively handicapped now than he was. He does, however, go into the race in form, unlike some. He's a funny horse as Ive always had him down as a mudlark but arguably his best last 5 or 6 runs have been on g/s or better so maybe a slog in the Chepstow mud (assuming it does rain at some point!) is not what he needs.
I read the same Evan Williams article (may have been the RP stable tour) about One In A Milan but cant say there was much encouragement at Ffos las the other week and he has been guilty of bigging up a horse in the past to no avail. See if he runs Wednesday.
I read the same Evan Williams article (may have been the RP stable tour) about One In A Milan but cant say there was much encouragement at Ffos las the other week and he has been guilty of bigging up a horse in the past to no avail. See if he runs Wednesday.
Jonjo is a master when he steps up horses markedly in trip but have to agree on previous form Alfie doesn't want a slog. If it was unusually decent ground then big big chance as I think he has to go up a few pounds to get into the Grand National. Hate to be boring but I do think if it's heavy then Goonyella will be a massive player, really like his Troytown run finished behind some decent sorts in Mad Brian who I think has a big handicap in him and Colbert Station a decent yardstick. It wasn't enough of a test for him and if he gets the usual Welsh National conditions he is the horse to beat as he is only 6yo and lightly raced.
Owner is saying Rocky Creek will run here .. presumably off 156 or thereabouts? He'll need to be a better horse than Synchronised to win off that mark. He'll make the market for the rest.
Have backed Ace High and not too worried if he's a few pound wrong at the weights if Tidal Bay runs and even better if hr doesn't. Acts really well round the track and I thought a cracking first run for D.Pipe last time at Haydock. Travelled like the best horse IMO and will be bottom weight not top weight on favoured track.
sintonian Joined: 21 Sep 04
Replies: 22240 01 Dec 13 21:28
Owner is saying Rocky Creek will run here .. presumably off 156 or thereabouts? He'll need to be a better horse than Synchronised to win off that mark. He'll make the market for the rest.
Nicholls said Lexus in the RP
Replies: 22240 01 Dec 13 21:28
Owner is saying Rocky Creek will run here .. presumably off 156 or thereabouts? He'll need to be a better horse than Synchronised to win off that mark. He'll make the market for the rest.
Nicholls said Lexus in the RP
Hadnt looked at Ace High shockster but has to be of interest. Cant knock his novice win at Chepstow beating Duke of Lucca and Teaforthree hands down despite some iffy jumps and a tendancy to go right which appears to have stayed with him up until his debut for Pipe the other saturday. Was apparently injured after that but had been targeted at last seasons Hennessy until a bad run at Ascot (that was just prior to Dartnall having to shut down because of the herpes virus so may have been one of the affected horses as he ran no sort of race that day). Guess you can forgive his first run back (unlike his owners
) and lots to like about his Haydock run, particularly if theres more to come. If there is, he could be well handicapped and he looks a big horse so a light weight would be good. Hasnt been committed to the race yet but there will be worse 33-1 pokes on the day if he turns up. Still not entirely convinced by his jumping, however.
) and lots to like about his Haydock run, particularly if theres more to come. If there is, he could be well handicapped and he looks a big horse so a light weight would be good. Hasnt been committed to the race yet but there will be worse 33-1 pokes on the day if he turns up. Still not entirely convinced by his jumping, however.
I agree with Global Power have had a little nibble interesting if he does get in to the race
Thats One In A Milan's goose cooked as well, if you can forgive the pre-christmas pun...Looks like Evan has misjudged a horses ability - again.
There are a few welsh national entries running in the last at Sandown today and also in the 2.00 Chepstow. Obviously I'm hoping Hawkes Point runs a decent race.
14:00 Chepstow - Hawkes Point
Had some good form against decent novices last season, but has been slow to come to hand and I make no secret of the fact that this is a prep race for the Welsh National. So I have left a bit to work on. But I can see him developing into a decent stayer on soft ground this season.
Had some good form against decent novices last season, but has been slow to come to hand and I make no secret of the fact that this is a prep race for the Welsh National. So I have left a bit to work on. But I can see him developing into a decent stayer on soft ground this season.
Red Rocco for Twiston-davies looks very interesting. Proven stayer on soft ground and still with potential improvement. I'm on at 190s
Emma Lavelle has said Highland Lodge will run all being well. He is 1lb lower now for his 4th place at Newbury.
Merry King, Tidal Bay, Vesper Bell, Well Refreshed would be my shortlist
Sydney Paget is indeed entered in Tommy Whittle at Haydock on Saturday.
Emperor's Choice, Loch Ba, Night Alliance, Nuts N Bolts, One in a Milan, Safran De Cotte, Storm Survivor and Super Duty are other Welsh National entries also engaged in Tommy Whittle.
Still can't see any point in getting involved until 5 day dec stage at the earliest.
Emperor's Choice, Loch Ba, Night Alliance, Nuts N Bolts, One in a Milan, Safran De Cotte, Storm Survivor and Super Duty are other Welsh National entries also engaged in Tommy Whittle.
Still can't see any point in getting involved until 5 day dec stage at the earliest.
just the one horse jumping out at me
that old dog TIDAL BAY
that old dog TIDAL BAY
Silver By Nature was runner-up in the Chepstow marathon back in 2009 and the grey returned to form with a second behind Sydney Paget at Haydock last month, while Nuts N Bolts was a six-length winner on the same card
"Both hold entries in the Welsh National," the Kinross trainer told www.lucindarussell.com.
Profiles Miss
Lucinda
V
Russell Silver By Nature Nuts N Bolts
"Nuts N Bolts will also have entries at Wetherby in the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase, and at Haydock in The Last Fling Chase.
"Silver By Nature will also retain his entry at Leopardstown in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase."
"Both hold entries in the Welsh National," the Kinross trainer told www.lucindarussell.com.
Profiles Miss
Lucinda
V
Russell Silver By Nature Nuts N Bolts
"Nuts N Bolts will also have entries at Wetherby in the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase, and at Haydock in The Last Fling Chase.
"Silver By Nature will also retain his entry at Leopardstown in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase."
Merry King – A horse Jonjo has had in mind for this race since last season. Has twice been staying on in two big handicaps this season at Ascot and then was a plugging on 5th in the Hennessy despite making a very bad blunder at the 2nd last. The step up in trip looks like it will suit him well as he appears to have plenty of stamina. Jonjo seems to think he wants soft ground and he’ll likely get that at Chepstow. He certainly had no problem with it when going down by a nose to 148 rated Cannington Brook at Haydock last year. That fine effort was at the age of 5. Hopefully he’s progressed and will improve for the conditions of this race.
Well Refreshed – Loves deep ground and won 3 on the bounce last winter including the Grand National Trial at Haydock in Feb. Ran no race at all on his final start in the Bet365 at Sandown on good ground. Has always needed his first run off a break so we can ignore his effort at Cheltenham in October. But he ran a superb race to be a 2l 3rd to There’s No Panic at Sandown this month, despite making many bad blunders on his way round he kept on. This depth of stamina and willingness to go on despite errors is a good trait. With likely testing conditions at Chepstow he holds very strong claims if he can brush up a bit on his jumping.
1.5pt Merry King 14/1
1.5pt Well Refreshed 12/1
jumpsadvisor.com
Well Refreshed – Loves deep ground and won 3 on the bounce last winter including the Grand National Trial at Haydock in Feb. Ran no race at all on his final start in the Bet365 at Sandown on good ground. Has always needed his first run off a break so we can ignore his effort at Cheltenham in October. But he ran a superb race to be a 2l 3rd to There’s No Panic at Sandown this month, despite making many bad blunders on his way round he kept on. This depth of stamina and willingness to go on despite errors is a good trait. With likely testing conditions at Chepstow he holds very strong claims if he can brush up a bit on his jumping.
1.5pt Merry King 14/1
1.5pt Well Refreshed 12/1
jumpsadvisor.com
cv byrne is this jumpsadvisor your site or is the ramping for a friend??
think it is or is alleged
fair enough, simple question just wanted to know?
fair enough, simple question just wanted to know?
Yes Harry it's my site. I just copy my articles from there to post on here as I've no reply tool for discussion on my site.
Feel putting the time in to do a piece on big races and putting it up there will help me do proper analysis. I find my biggest weakness right now is lazy betting, looking at half the runners of a race etc..
Feel putting the time in to do a piece on big races and putting it up there will help me do proper analysis. I find my biggest weakness right now is lazy betting, looking at half the runners of a race etc..
fair enough, certainly keeps you honest as a punter...
tricky game for sure...you should certainly put in your profit/loss running total...should help you and also let people know how you are getting on profit wise...or maybe a small piece of your bets
nice start with double ross i see
tricky game for sure...you should certainly put in your profit/loss running total...should help you and also let people know how you are getting on profit wise...or maybe a small piece of your bets
nice start with double ross i see
Yeah was thinking what way was best to do the site. It's only new and it's a bit messy with regards Antepost betting on Cheltenham. I've loads of bets placed but they're not posted all in one place place and the odds have changed a lot.
I'll keep a p&l monthly total for the big race betting advice and see how that goes. Move to more structured approach next season when I can have the whole season.
Don't know what to do with the Weekday betting blog. It's more betting out of boredom than any solid money maker for me. Stakes are always lower midweek as racing quality is lower. Will probably do a monthly p&l in there too so people can see the difference.
I'll find the right way to essentially have my betting out there. So everybody can see, one thing that has always grated with me was people doubting you or calling you a liar about bets. The best way to prove you can make money is to put it out there on a site like this.
I'll keep a p&l monthly total for the big race betting advice and see how that goes. Move to more structured approach next season when I can have the whole season.
Don't know what to do with the Weekday betting blog. It's more betting out of boredom than any solid money maker for me. Stakes are always lower midweek as racing quality is lower. Will probably do a monthly p&l in there too so people can see the difference.
I'll find the right way to essentially have my betting out there. So everybody can see, one thing that has always grated with me was people doubting you or calling you a liar about bets. The best way to prove you can make money is to put it out there on a site like this.
Not if you are the moderator CV. Details can always be changed/deleted.
Best way is an open forum like this where nothing can be amended.
Best way is an open forum like this where nothing can be amended.
There are plenty of sites out there which fudge their results so it makes it difficult from a trust point of view. Ofcourse you wouldn't do that! But my point is forums whereby noone has the ownership of moderator tools are better to record P&L's imo.
well good luck, tough game
i'll try not to pick the bones out of your selections to much and although you think it doesn't help, it is a forum and sometimes horses need to be discussed and the method behind the selections
Don't know what to do with the Weekday betting blog. It's more betting out of boredom than any solid money maker for me. Stakes are always lower midweek as racing quality is lower.
not sure i agree at all with this, as every bet should carry confidence which is the whole point of putting pts to your selection on a tipping service ie £100 a point. stakes cannot be lower as this is how a points scale works
i'll try not to pick the bones out of your selections to much and although you think it doesn't help, it is a forum and sometimes horses need to be discussed and the method behind the selections
Don't know what to do with the Weekday betting blog. It's more betting out of boredom than any solid money maker for me. Stakes are always lower midweek as racing quality is lower.
not sure i agree at all with this, as every bet should carry confidence which is the whole point of putting pts to your selection on a tipping service ie £100 a point. stakes cannot be lower as this is how a points scale works
You have a point sint about the site that you can make changes to it. But surely when you've posted it up and tweeted the link if you ever then went and changed what you've bet you'd lose all credibility?
Also blog has exact date and time of the post. So could post your selection in there and odds then link to the article on the site?
I suppose it's best best to keep posting selections on here as it's permanent too.
Also blog has exact date and time of the post. So could post your selection in there and odds then link to the article on the site?
I suppose it's best best to keep posting selections on here as it's permanent too.
Harry discussion does help, so feel free to pick the bones of selections. I'm happy to discuss reasoning behind the picks.
I think you may be right about the betting blog. If you're going to put it out there then it should count as much as any other bet. I bet far too much midweek anyway and can force myself to bet less and be more focused with what goes up there.
But the site is trying to make the distinction between £10 & £20 weekday bets and the £50 & £100 bets that are placed on the big races.
Maybe I'll keep a consistent stake level of 1pt is £50 and give fractions and multiples of of that across the site.
I think you may be right about the betting blog. If you're going to put it out there then it should count as much as any other bet. I bet far too much midweek anyway and can force myself to bet less and be more focused with what goes up there.
But the site is trying to make the distinction between £10 & £20 weekday bets and the £50 & £100 bets that are placed on the big races.
Maybe I'll keep a consistent stake level of 1pt is £50 and give fractions and multiples of of that across the site.
^ on the right lines ( staking wise)imo.
Two for the race:-
Sydney Paget
Well Rehearsed
Two for the race:-
Sydney Paget
Well Rehearsed
Goonyella price has gone now of course.
Saddle slipped in Irish National. travels superly well very good debut second place before the faster ground scuppered him last time.
This race looks tailor made for him just like Notra Pere , can see no other winner.
Saddle slipped in Irish National. travels superly well very good debut second place before the faster ground scuppered him last time.
This race looks tailor made for him just like Notra Pere , can see no other winner.
currently
soft, heavy in places
and plenty more rain forecast.
soft, heavy in places
and plenty more rain forecast.
Whats happening with Sydney Paget? All set to run tomorrow but noticed yesterday that Tidal bay was withdrawn from Lexus and all of a sudden SP not declared to run Saturday. Is the horse wrong or have they had a change of heart? Had SP at 25's for Welsh National but laid off after Tommy Whittle was stated intended target - now it could well be running. All too much for my tiny brain to cope with. Surely off such a light weight he would hose up at Chepstow should Tidal Bay run but now Ive lost my tasty price. Boo-hoo. Boo-hoo.
McCain was on ATR in the week, betily - prize money for the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown next Friday is very appealing apparently, thinks he's too young for Welsh National yet.
He suggested he would go to Ireland if not the Tommy Whittle, don't hold me to that though - you know what they're like for changing their mind.
He suggested he would go to Ireland if not the Tommy Whittle, don't hold me to that though - you know what they're like for changing their mind.
You did well to lay it off in time, Betil.
Sadly Silver By Nature died on the gallops this morning.
Sadly Silver By Nature died on the gallops this morning.
Some of these run at Haydock today. I would be surprised if they ran next weekend too.
Still hope Global Power gets in but looks doubtful.
Still hope Global Power gets in but looks doubtful.
Yeah, youre right. Didnt run today because the horse was a bit quiet but isnt going to go to Chepstow anyway so thats okay. Well, actually, its not as Id rather he ran but theres not much I can do about that now!
Very sad news about Silver By Nature btw (or Tonto to the stable). great old horse and had a good chance again this year. Condolences to all connections.
Very sad news about Silver By Nature btw (or Tonto to the stable). great old horse and had a good chance again this year. Condolences to all connections.
Final acceptors on Monday so that will make things a lot clearer!
Understand Goonie on the way over Xmas Eve. Oi Oi.
I am currently leaning towards De La Bech but will wait until the weights and the going are clear. If the forecast is right, I can see it being almost untraceable or even postponed.
you're making me nervous now, one of my favourite races of the year.
weather looks OK after today though - some heavy rain forecast for Fri morning but not too bad otherwise, will be a slog but should be on?
weather looks OK after today though - some heavy rain forecast for Fri morning but not too bad otherwise, will be a slog but should be on?
Merry King for me been waiting for distance of ground, not sure bout going ( re will be almost heavy but same for all ) defo overpriced still.
Will back again when declared.
Will back again when declared.
35 121-15 Tidal Bay35 12 11-12 Paul Nicholls48 Daryl Jacob 163 56 172
34 86203- Teaforthree266 9 11-2 Rebecca Curtis63 153 162 170
32 612-00 Same Difference28 7 10-10 Nigel Twiston-Davies68 147 157 171
33 2175-1 Sydney Paget35 6 10-8 Donald McCain86 145 136 169
15 52P-41 Hey Big Spender28 10 10-3 Colin Tizzard60 140 157 174
16 356-24 Highland Lodge28 7 10-6 Emma Lavelle67 143 164 175
12 1162-0 Goulanes42 7 10-6 David Pipe33 143 121 173
21 220-25 Merry King28 6 10-3 Jonjo O´Neill44 140 131 171
41 103-99 Wyck Hill21 9 10-3 David Bridgwater50 140 153 171
40 11P-03 Well Refreshed21 9 10-2 Gary Moore55 139 124 176
11 3P1-25 Goonyella34 6 10-1 J T R Dreaper100 138 127 172
14 212P-4 Hawkes Point21 8 10-0 Paul Nicholls48 Ryan Mahon 137 129 173
18 02-201 Knock A Hand13 8 9-10 Richard Lee50 133 146 174
39 12P-12 Vintage Star28 7 10-0 Sue Smith57 137 143 176
31 090-84 Saint Are35 7 9-13 Tim Vaughan63 136 133 166
3 131-70 Amigo29 6 9-12 David Pipe33 135 81 101
7 022-00 Chartreux21 8 9-11 Tom George67 134 126 166
2 374-4 Alfie Sherrin35 10 9-11 Jonjo O´Neill44 134 142 164
24 241-33 Mountainous21 8 9-9 Richard Lee50 132 153 168
36 874-26 Tour Des Champs42 6 9-9 Nigel Twiston-Davies68 132 138 165
1 3P-03 Ace High35 9 9-9 David Pipe33 132 70 166
29 2114-2 Red Rocco35 6 9-7 Nigel Twiston-Davies68 130 94 164
13 7PP-16 Harouet27 8 9-7 Peter Bowen38 130 109 162
4 5192-5 Ballyoliver49 9 9-6 Venetia Williams65 129 145 163
6 40-331 Boyfromnowhere41 6 9-6 Rebecca Curtis63 129 147 162
10 3342-1 Global Power55 7 9-5 Oliver Sherwood100 128 124 159
8 021-71 De La Bech21 6 9-1 Philip Hobbs56 124 122 162
20 1-174F Living Next Door34 7 9-3 A J Martin40 126 59 158
26 23-F3P One In A Milan24 8 9-3 Evan Williams50 126 143 158
25 441-P5 Netminder28 7 9-2 Sandy Thomson100 125 117 158
9 F132-P Fentara28 8 9-2 Tim Walford 125 142 163
38 3FU1-5 Valoroso28 8 9-2 Richard Woollacott50 125 124 157
5 126-FP Big News10 7 9-0 Richard Lee50 123 131 156
19 1F-228 Lamboro Lad49 8 8-13 Peter Bowen38 122 135 157
30 03P-00 Restless Harry35 9 8-13 Robin Dickin75 122 79 156
37 130-32 Unoccupied55 7 8-11 Eoghan O´Grady 120 95 151
27 355-75 Our Island35 8 8-10 Tim Vaughan63 119 132 163
28 27-753 Rebeccas Choice20 10 8-9 Dai Burchell Robert Dunne3 118 150 155
22 3313-5 Milo Milan58 8 8-8 Richard Lee50 117 143 155
17 2-5346 Incentivise22 10 8-8 Richard Lee50 117 140 154
23 2U1-P4 Mister Philson17 8 8-1 S R B Crawford100 110 107 144
34 86203- Teaforthree266 9 11-2 Rebecca Curtis63 153 162 170
32 612-00 Same Difference28 7 10-10 Nigel Twiston-Davies68 147 157 171
33 2175-1 Sydney Paget35 6 10-8 Donald McCain86 145 136 169
15 52P-41 Hey Big Spender28 10 10-3 Colin Tizzard60 140 157 174
16 356-24 Highland Lodge28 7 10-6 Emma Lavelle67 143 164 175
12 1162-0 Goulanes42 7 10-6 David Pipe33 143 121 173
21 220-25 Merry King28 6 10-3 Jonjo O´Neill44 140 131 171
41 103-99 Wyck Hill21 9 10-3 David Bridgwater50 140 153 171
40 11P-03 Well Refreshed21 9 10-2 Gary Moore55 139 124 176
11 3P1-25 Goonyella34 6 10-1 J T R Dreaper100 138 127 172
14 212P-4 Hawkes Point21 8 10-0 Paul Nicholls48 Ryan Mahon 137 129 173
18 02-201 Knock A Hand13 8 9-10 Richard Lee50 133 146 174
39 12P-12 Vintage Star28 7 10-0 Sue Smith57 137 143 176
31 090-84 Saint Are35 7 9-13 Tim Vaughan63 136 133 166
3 131-70 Amigo29 6 9-12 David Pipe33 135 81 101
7 022-00 Chartreux21 8 9-11 Tom George67 134 126 166
2 374-4 Alfie Sherrin35 10 9-11 Jonjo O´Neill44 134 142 164
24 241-33 Mountainous21 8 9-9 Richard Lee50 132 153 168
36 874-26 Tour Des Champs42 6 9-9 Nigel Twiston-Davies68 132 138 165
1 3P-03 Ace High35 9 9-9 David Pipe33 132 70 166
29 2114-2 Red Rocco35 6 9-7 Nigel Twiston-Davies68 130 94 164
13 7PP-16 Harouet27 8 9-7 Peter Bowen38 130 109 162
4 5192-5 Ballyoliver49 9 9-6 Venetia Williams65 129 145 163
6 40-331 Boyfromnowhere41 6 9-6 Rebecca Curtis63 129 147 162
10 3342-1 Global Power55 7 9-5 Oliver Sherwood100 128 124 159
8 021-71 De La Bech21 6 9-1 Philip Hobbs56 124 122 162
20 1-174F Living Next Door34 7 9-3 A J Martin40 126 59 158
26 23-F3P One In A Milan24 8 9-3 Evan Williams50 126 143 158
25 441-P5 Netminder28 7 9-2 Sandy Thomson100 125 117 158
9 F132-P Fentara28 8 9-2 Tim Walford 125 142 163
38 3FU1-5 Valoroso28 8 9-2 Richard Woollacott50 125 124 157
5 126-FP Big News10 7 9-0 Richard Lee50 123 131 156
19 1F-228 Lamboro Lad49 8 8-13 Peter Bowen38 122 135 157
30 03P-00 Restless Harry35 9 8-13 Robin Dickin75 122 79 156
37 130-32 Unoccupied55 7 8-11 Eoghan O´Grady 120 95 151
27 355-75 Our Island35 8 8-10 Tim Vaughan63 119 132 163
28 27-753 Rebeccas Choice20 10 8-9 Dai Burchell Robert Dunne3 118 150 155
22 3313-5 Milo Milan58 8 8-8 Richard Lee50 117 143 155
17 2-5346 Incentivise22 10 8-8 Richard Lee50 117 140 154
23 2U1-P4 Mister Philson17 8 8-1 S R B Crawford100 110 107 144
The ground is going to be Heavy.
Global Power is 26th on the list now so still needs a few more to drop out.
Tidal Bay running is an absolute ball ache. Lots of trainers are going to struggle to find a jockey to do the weight.
Global Power is 26th on the list now so still needs a few more to drop out.
Tidal Bay running is an absolute ball ache. Lots of trainers are going to struggle to find a jockey to do the weight.
Nicholls has kept Tidal Bay in and got Hawkes Point in bang on his mark and already declared Mahon to ride, he was n't born yesterday.
Tidal Bay has been taken out of the Lexus so is obviously going to run here.
About half the field will be out of the handicap, I think?
Tidal Bay has been taken out of the Lexus so is obviously going to run here.
About half the field will be out of the handicap, I think?
Another inch of rain on Friday will make it very doubtful imo.
Goonyella carrying 10 stone 1 pound in heavy ground if Tidal Bay stay in ......
Goonyella's ferry was cancelled so still in Ireland - tryin to reshedule but the Paddy Power would b plan B
Jim Dreaper has had to come up with a Plan B to get Coral Welsh National fancy Goonyella to Chepstow on Saturday after stormy weather scuppered his original thinking.
Dreaper had hoped to send the six-year-old on the journey from Ireland on Tuesday as there are no ferries leaving the Republic on Christmas Day or the 26th.
However, due to rough seas the ferry companies would not allow livestock to travel, and Dreaper will now send his charge up to Belfast in the hope he can sail on Thursday.
Dreaper won the race in 2008 with the seven-year-old Notre Pere, who went on to win at Grade One level.
"We didn't get him away today, which was the plan," said Dreaper, whose charge is joint-favourite with a number of firms in company with Well Refreshed.
"The sea was too rough and they weren't shipping any animals., so that was a shame.
"What we are planning to do now is to sail from Belfast on Thursday morning, which means a lot more driving when we get to the UK but there you go.
"There's no ferries from (southern) Ireland on St Stephen's Day so that's why we are having to do it like that.
"Other than that everything is fine, the horse is very well and the ground is in his favour."
Dreaper had hoped to send the six-year-old on the journey from Ireland on Tuesday as there are no ferries leaving the Republic on Christmas Day or the 26th.
However, due to rough seas the ferry companies would not allow livestock to travel, and Dreaper will now send his charge up to Belfast in the hope he can sail on Thursday.
Dreaper won the race in 2008 with the seven-year-old Notre Pere, who went on to win at Grade One level.
"We didn't get him away today, which was the plan," said Dreaper, whose charge is joint-favourite with a number of firms in company with Well Refreshed.
"The sea was too rough and they weren't shipping any animals., so that was a shame.
"What we are planning to do now is to sail from Belfast on Thursday morning, which means a lot more driving when we get to the UK but there you go.
"There's no ferries from (southern) Ireland on St Stephen's Day so that's why we are having to do it like that.
"Other than that everything is fine, the horse is very well and the ground is in his favour."
Forecast weather is good for Thursday so good luck to the connections for perservering and hope it all proves worthwhile. I really fancied Goony and still do but it seems to me there are any number who can win this having looked in more depth.
Just a thought but weather forecast for Friday is very poor so hope the english travellers plan correctly to get to Leopardstown.....
Just a thought but weather forecast for Friday is very poor so hope the english travellers plan correctly to get to Leopardstown.....
Has Goonie got on the boat yet? Me antepost bet is wavering.
This is what the TRENDS say:
Highland Lodge 80%
Amigo 76%
Sydney Paget 70%
Vintage Star 67%
16 Global Power 66%
Hawkes Point 66%
Mountainous 66%
15 De La Bech 66%
Saint Are 65%
Same Difference 65%
Knock A Hand 64%
Tour Des Champs 64%
Teaforthree 61%
Goulanes 60%
11 Fentara 60%
20 Red Rocco 60%
1 Mister Philson 60%
13 One In A Milan 59%
Alfie Sherrin 58%
Merry King 58%
Goonyella 58%
21 Ace High 58%
Well Refreshed 57%
Tidal Bay 57%
Hey Big Spender 56%
12 Netminder 53%
9 Big News 53%
5 Our Island 53%
6 Unoccupied 52%
7 Restless Harry 51%
Chartreux 50%
17 Boyfromnowhere 46%
4 Rebeccas Choice 46%
10 Valoroso 44%
Wyck Hill 43%
18 Ballyoliver 38%
3 Milo Milan 38%
14 Living Next Door 37%
19 Harouet 35%
8 Lamboro Lad 30%
2 Incentivise 30%
My three against the field are:
Highland Lodge @ 12
Amigo @ 30
Sydney Paget (SP if runs)
Highland Lodge 80%
Amigo 76%
Sydney Paget 70%
Vintage Star 67%
16 Global Power 66%
Hawkes Point 66%
Mountainous 66%
15 De La Bech 66%
Saint Are 65%
Same Difference 65%
Knock A Hand 64%
Tour Des Champs 64%
Teaforthree 61%
Goulanes 60%
11 Fentara 60%
20 Red Rocco 60%
1 Mister Philson 60%
13 One In A Milan 59%
Alfie Sherrin 58%
Merry King 58%
Goonyella 58%
21 Ace High 58%
Well Refreshed 57%
Tidal Bay 57%
Hey Big Spender 56%
12 Netminder 53%
9 Big News 53%
5 Our Island 53%
6 Unoccupied 52%
7 Restless Harry 51%
Chartreux 50%
17 Boyfromnowhere 46%
4 Rebeccas Choice 46%
10 Valoroso 44%
Wyck Hill 43%
18 Ballyoliver 38%
3 Milo Milan 38%
14 Living Next Door 37%
19 Harouet 35%
8 Lamboro Lad 30%
2 Incentivise 30%
My three against the field are:
Highland Lodge @ 12
Amigo @ 30
Sydney Paget (SP if runs)
Think Mr Pipe has done the old:
(1) give Amigo a run round at the back of a chase first time out
(2) honed his fitness in a handicap hurdle last time out, without affecting his handicap mark
All of which might mean..........
(3) will be a completely different animal in the big event!
Let's hope so anyway.
(1) give Amigo a run round at the back of a chase first time out
(2) honed his fitness in a handicap hurdle last time out, without affecting his handicap mark
All of which might mean..........
(3) will be a completely different animal in the big event!
Let's hope so anyway.
Goonyella nt entered in PP so all must b ok with travel this mornin
Yippee BJG. Lovely day for sailing.
NO. HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 121-15 Tidal Bay35 12 11-12 Paul Nicholls50 Daryl Jacob 163 56 172
2 86203- Teaforthree266 9 11-2 Rebecca Curtis70 Patrick Corbett5 153 162 170
3 52P-41 Hey Big Spender28 4xt 10 10-7 Colin Tizzard63 Joe Tizzard 144 153 170
4 356-24 Highland Lodge28 7 10-6 Emma Lavelle69 Leighton Aspell 143 164 175
5 1162-0 Goulanes42 b1 7 10-6 David Pipe32 Tom Scudamore 143 121 173
6 220-25 Merry King28 6 10-3 Jonjo O´Neill42 Richie McLernon 140 131 171
7 103-99 Wyck Hill21 9 10-3 David Bridgwater50 Tom O'Brien 140 153 171
8 11P-03 Well Refreshed21 9 10-2 Gary Moore55 Joshua Moore3 139 124 176
9 3P1-25 Goonyella34 6 10-1 J T R Dreaper50 A E Lynch 138 127 172
10 12P-12 Vintage Star28 7 10-0 Sue Smith67 Ryan Mania 137 143 176
11 212P-4 Hawkes Point21 8 10-0 Paul Nicholls50 Ryan Mahon 137 129 173
12 02-201 Knock A Hand13 4xb 8 10-0 Richard Lee60 Tom Cannon 137 146 174
13 131-70 Amigo29 tb1 6 10-0 David Pipe32 Conor O'Farrell 135 81 101
14 022-00 Chartreux21 8 10-0 Tom George62 Paddy Brennan 134 126 166
15 241-33 Mountainous21 8 10-0 Richard Lee60 Paul Moloney 132 153 168
16 874-26 Tour Des Champs42 6 10-0 Nigel Twiston-Davies68 Sam Twiston-Davies 132 138 165
17 3P-03 Ace High35 9 10-0 David Pipe32 132 70 166
18 2114-2 Red Rocco35 6 10-0 Nigel Twiston-Davies68 Adam Wedge 130 94 164
19 7PP-16 Harouet27 p 8 10-0 Peter Bowen36 Jamie Moore 130 109 162
20 23-F3P One In A Milan24 8 10-0 Evan Williams39 Conor Ring7 126 143 158
1 121-15 Tidal Bay35 12 11-12 Paul Nicholls50 Daryl Jacob 163 56 172
2 86203- Teaforthree266 9 11-2 Rebecca Curtis70 Patrick Corbett5 153 162 170
3 52P-41 Hey Big Spender28 4xt 10 10-7 Colin Tizzard63 Joe Tizzard 144 153 170
4 356-24 Highland Lodge28 7 10-6 Emma Lavelle69 Leighton Aspell 143 164 175
5 1162-0 Goulanes42 b1 7 10-6 David Pipe32 Tom Scudamore 143 121 173
6 220-25 Merry King28 6 10-3 Jonjo O´Neill42 Richie McLernon 140 131 171
7 103-99 Wyck Hill21 9 10-3 David Bridgwater50 Tom O'Brien 140 153 171
8 11P-03 Well Refreshed21 9 10-2 Gary Moore55 Joshua Moore3 139 124 176
9 3P1-25 Goonyella34 6 10-1 J T R Dreaper50 A E Lynch 138 127 172
10 12P-12 Vintage Star28 7 10-0 Sue Smith67 Ryan Mania 137 143 176
11 212P-4 Hawkes Point21 8 10-0 Paul Nicholls50 Ryan Mahon 137 129 173
12 02-201 Knock A Hand13 4xb 8 10-0 Richard Lee60 Tom Cannon 137 146 174
13 131-70 Amigo29 tb1 6 10-0 David Pipe32 Conor O'Farrell 135 81 101
14 022-00 Chartreux21 8 10-0 Tom George62 Paddy Brennan 134 126 166
15 241-33 Mountainous21 8 10-0 Richard Lee60 Paul Moloney 132 153 168
16 874-26 Tour Des Champs42 6 10-0 Nigel Twiston-Davies68 Sam Twiston-Davies 132 138 165
17 3P-03 Ace High35 9 10-0 David Pipe32 132 70 166
18 2114-2 Red Rocco35 6 10-0 Nigel Twiston-Davies68 Adam Wedge 130 94 164
19 7PP-16 Harouet27 p 8 10-0 Peter Bowen36 Jamie Moore 130 109 162
20 23-F3P One In A Milan24 8 10-0 Evan Williams39 Conor Ring7 126 143 158
No Global Power.
Hawkes Point has to be of interest now.
Hawkes Point has to be of interest now.
Hawkes Point looks desperately slow sint. I know you need a stayer but he makes Just So look like Frankel!
Having gone round in circles Im taking a chance on Tidal Bay for one last hurrah. Jacobs won the Bet 365 off top weight on his only ride on the horse and his second in last years hennessy also off top weight wasnt shabby form either. His hurdle victory shows the talent is still there and was hardly disgraced behind Cue Card & Silvi Conti in the Betfair chase. Not sure he can win but will give us a good run for the cash at 16's.
I agree with all about Tidal Bay and think I'll have a saver. Really fancy ACE HIGH though. Will carry only 9st7 and likes the track, trip and going. Massively overpriced at 33/1 IMO. Showed improved form last time at Haydock where he had 11st12 on his back and looked the winner turning in. He has to go close. Well I hope so.
As much as I avoid backing horses that ran in the Hennessy given their awful record in this race immediately after, I might just have to back Highland Lodge. He is in the weights proper, loves soft ground and faced an impossible task conceding the 26lb to Standing Ovation. He's been dropped a pound for Newbury but is runnning off his old rating, which is annoying. But, my original bet in this race was Global Power. I do not know why he is not running (does anyone? ) as he would have got in given bottom OR is 126, but it might be something to do with Leighton Aspell who rides the majority of Oliver Sherwood's horses so would have ridden Global Power or had the choice between the two. He has also won this race before on L'Aventure.
Trends for the final field:
Highland Lodge 80%
Amigo 76%
Vintage Star 67%
Hawkes Point 66%
Mountainous 66%
Knock A Hand 64%
Merry King 64%
Tour Des Champs 64%
Teaforthree 61%
Goulanes 60%
Red Rocco 60%
One In A Milan 59%
Goonyella 58%
Ace High 58%
Well Refreshed 57%
Tidal Bay 57%
Hey Big Spender 56%
Chartreux 50%
Wyck Hill 43%
Harouet 35%
Highland Lodge 80%
Amigo 76%
Vintage Star 67%
Hawkes Point 66%
Mountainous 66%
Knock A Hand 64%
Merry King 64%
Tour Des Champs 64%
Teaforthree 61%
Goulanes 60%
Red Rocco 60%
One In A Milan 59%
Goonyella 58%
Ace High 58%
Well Refreshed 57%
Tidal Bay 57%
Hey Big Spender 56%
Chartreux 50%
Wyck Hill 43%
Harouet 35%
Tour Des Champs for me, out of the handicap but not by much, the most important thing is that he has his ground. If you read his form all his best efforts have come on ground described as testing, hes only a 6 year old who the twisters think highly of and they have always said he'd be a national sort from a young age. Expect a prominent ride from the off, highly confident of a bold showing.
Have listed the horses below in order of stamina (as suggested by the longest distance they have won over going into this race). Tne % is their trends ranking.
[b]Teaforthree 61% 32F (Good)
Tidal Bay 57% 30F (Soft)
Goonyella 58% 30F (Heavy)
Well Refreshed 57% 29F (Soft)
Hey Big Spender 56% 29F (Good to Soft))
Chartreux 50% 28F (Soft)
[/b]Vintage Star 67% 26F (Soft)
Goulanes 60% 26F (Soft)
Highland Lodge 80% 26F (Heavy)
Harouet 35% 26F (Heavy)
Wyck Hill 43% 25F (Soft)
Amigo 76% 25F (Good to Soft))
Knock A Hand 64% 25F (Good to Soft))
Hawkes Point 66% 24F (Heavy)
Mountainous 66% 24F (Heavy)
Tour Des Champs 64% 24F (Heavy)
Red Rocco 60% 24F (Heavy)
One In A Milan 59% 24F (Heavy)
Ace High 58% 24F (Good)
Merry King 64% 21F (Heavy)
The last 3 winners of the Welsh National have shown good stamina prior to the race having won over a minimum of 28 furlongs. However, prior to that there were a few horses winning the National who had only won over 3 miles previously. But, if you're looking at stamina, then you might want to have the top ones listed above on your side.
[b]Teaforthree 61% 32F (Good)
Tidal Bay 57% 30F (Soft)
Goonyella 58% 30F (Heavy)
Well Refreshed 57% 29F (Soft)
Hey Big Spender 56% 29F (Good to Soft))
Chartreux 50% 28F (Soft)
[/b]Vintage Star 67% 26F (Soft)
Goulanes 60% 26F (Soft)
Highland Lodge 80% 26F (Heavy)
Harouet 35% 26F (Heavy)
Wyck Hill 43% 25F (Soft)
Amigo 76% 25F (Good to Soft))
Knock A Hand 64% 25F (Good to Soft))
Hawkes Point 66% 24F (Heavy)
Mountainous 66% 24F (Heavy)
Tour Des Champs 64% 24F (Heavy)
Red Rocco 60% 24F (Heavy)
One In A Milan 59% 24F (Heavy)
Ace High 58% 24F (Good)
Merry King 64% 21F (Heavy)
The last 3 winners of the Welsh National have shown good stamina prior to the race having won over a minimum of 28 furlongs. However, prior to that there were a few horses winning the National who had only won over 3 miles previously. But, if you're looking at stamina, then you might want to have the top ones listed above on your side.
sticking with Hey Big Spender, took a little 25s at 5 day stage and will go back in at best price in the morning. Hope they let him race prominently rather than hunting him around towards the rear as they did when he fell in this race two years ago. Must admit I'm not quite as sure as connections that he'll relish the going but he's the second classiest horse in the race and the classiest has to try to give him 19 lbs.
Will also back Vintage Star at the best price in the morning, has the right sort of profile for the race and seems to be a little under the radar in comparison to some of the other contenders, means I have all my eggs in the basket of the Newcastle Rehearsal Chase form line which is a bit of a worry but I did think it looked decent form at the time.
Of the others, most afraid of Well Refreshed and Hawkes Point.
Goes without saying that I'd be delighted to see the reformed old rogue Tidal Bay win this without any financial involvement!How many Arkle winners have gone on to win the Welsh National?
Will also back Vintage Star at the best price in the morning, has the right sort of profile for the race and seems to be a little under the radar in comparison to some of the other contenders, means I have all my eggs in the basket of the Newcastle Rehearsal Chase form line which is a bit of a worry but I did think it looked decent form at the time.
Of the others, most afraid of Well Refreshed and Hawkes Point.
Goes without saying that I'd be delighted to see the reformed old rogue Tidal Bay win this without any financial involvement!How many Arkle winners have gone on to win the Welsh National?
well had a little tickle on knock a hand at 25's think he has been underestimated here given his big field form...main worry is will he get home but willing to take the chance at the price...only 12 in the handicap proper, cannot believe some of these trainers haven't abused some apprenticeships to put them in the weights...
tricky affair as usual but willing to take a small chance here...johnson up
tricky affair as usual but willing to take a small chance here...johnson up
Only a small betting race for me this.
Little bet ew on the Ire hope Goonyella.
Gd luck all
Little bet ew on the Ire hope Goonyella.
Gd luck all
Or will one of the dour stayers win?
Teaforthree 32F (Good)
Tidal Bay 30F (Soft)
Goonyella 30F (Heavy)
Well Refreshed 29F (Soft)
Hey Big Spender 29F (Good to Soft))
Chartreux 28F (Soft)
Teaforthree 32F (Good)
Tidal Bay 30F (Soft)
Goonyella 30F (Heavy)
Well Refreshed 29F (Soft)
Hey Big Spender 29F (Good to Soft))
Chartreux 28F (Soft)
cracking race, well done all horses. thought Hawkes was going to get it but Mountainous very game.
yep, Tidal Bay a freak of nature, can't believe how well the track has taken all the rain, not quite as attritional as I thought it would be.
well done, winners.
well done, winners.
2 more horses to contend the Hennessy and then go into the Welsh National well fancied, and, well beaten. 
yes a cracker from tidal bay under that big weight
merry king ran well to be 5,i backed hit ante post 4 places mind.
My old man never taught me much but he did teach me to avoid any Hennessy horse in the Welsh National………..great run by Tidal Bay……...
Never even considered the winner but great result for connections. The Potters have been in the game a very long time and I think used to breed their own when the Duke trained for them.
Trends for the final field:
Highland Lodge 80% (PU)
Amigo 76% (7th)
Vintage Star 67% (6th)
Hawkes Point 66% (2nd)
Mountainous 66% (1st)
Knock A Hand 64% (PU)
Merry King 64% (5th)
Tour Des Champs 64% (PU)
Teaforthree 61% (9th)
Goulanes 60% (PU)
Red Rocco 60% (PU)
One In A Milan 59% (4th)
Goonyella 58% (8th)
Ace High 58% (PU)
Well Refreshed 57% (PU)
Tidal Bay 57% (3rd)
Hey Big Spender 56% (PU)
Chartreux 50% (PU)
Wyck Hill 43% (PU)
Harouet 35% (PU)
Suppose all you can say is that most of the top rated horses finished in the top half (1st and 2nd were joint 4th top rated), and most of the lowest rated trend horses finished pulled up (including well fancied Well Refreshed), with the notable exception of Tidal Bay. Highest rated horse disappointed, maybe feeling exertions of Hennessy, and Amigo ran well for a long way.
Highland Lodge 80% (PU)
Amigo 76% (7th)
Vintage Star 67% (6th)
Hawkes Point 66% (2nd)
Mountainous 66% (1st)
Knock A Hand 64% (PU)
Merry King 64% (5th)
Tour Des Champs 64% (PU)
Teaforthree 61% (9th)
Goulanes 60% (PU)
Red Rocco 60% (PU)
One In A Milan 59% (4th)
Goonyella 58% (8th)
Ace High 58% (PU)
Well Refreshed 57% (PU)
Tidal Bay 57% (3rd)
Hey Big Spender 56% (PU)
Chartreux 50% (PU)
Wyck Hill 43% (PU)
Harouet 35% (PU)
Suppose all you can say is that most of the top rated horses finished in the top half (1st and 2nd were joint 4th top rated), and most of the lowest rated trend horses finished pulled up (including well fancied Well Refreshed), with the notable exception of Tidal Bay. Highest rated horse disappointed, maybe feeling exertions of Hennessy, and Amigo ran well for a long way.
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