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BJG
27 Nov 13 12:47
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 29,810 | Blogger: BJG's blog
121-15    Tidal Bay35      12    11-12    Paul Nicholls     163    56    172
86203-    Teaforthree266      9    11-2    Rebecca Curtis     153    162    170
3P11F/    The Minack679      9    11-1    Paul Nicholls     152    —    —
21113-    Rocky Creek267      7    11-0    Paul Nicholls     151    146    171
12F-41    Dedigout48    7    10-13    A J Martin     150    126    169
21224-    Super Duty267    7    10-11    Donald McCain     148    148    170
2131-5    Godsmejudge42    7    10-11    Alan King     148    110    170
3612-0    Same Difference56    7    10-10    Nigel Twiston-Davies     147    157    171
2P0-96    Join Together55      8    10-9    Paul Nicholls     146    114    147
2710-5    Across The Bay56    9    10-9    Donald McCain     146    107    115
2F8P-5    Quartz De Thaix45    9    10-8    Venetia Williams     145    134    145
2175-1    Sydney Paget35      6    10-8    Donald McCain     145    136    169
0/P4-2    Silver By Nature35    11    10-8    Lucinda Russell     145    104    172
15U-0P    Terminal101    6    10-7    W P Mullins     144    146    170
F5-176    On His Own61    9    10-7    W P Mullins     144    148    165
1356-2    Highland Lodge62      7    10-6    Emma Lavelle     143    164    175
1521-4    Poungach49    7    10-6    Paul Nicholls     143    152    170
1162-0    Goulanes42    7    10-6    David Pipe     143    121    173
7711-U    Quentin Collonges42      9    10-5    Henry Daly     142    154    168
21372-    Vesper Bell246    7    10-5    W P Mullins     142    134    171
2643-P    Bostons Angel233    9    10-5    David Pipe     142    126    163
P52P-4    Hey Big Spender63      10    10-3    Colin Tizzard     140    157    174
116P-1    Nuts N Bolts35      7    10-3    Lucinda Russell     140    115    172
1220-2    Merry King56    6    10-3    Jonjo O´Neill     140    104    171
814-12    Beeves63    6    10-3    Donald McCain     140    135    163
5103-3    Sam Winner42    6    10-3    Paul Nicholls     140    139    171
1103-9    Wyck Hill56      9    10-3    David Bridgwater     140    153    171
111P-0    Well Refreshed70      9    10-2    Gary Moore     139    124    177
421-01    Midnight Appeal45    8    10-2    Alan King     139    153    169
3P1-25    Goonyella34      6    10-1    J T R Dreaper     138    127    172
11/P-2    Victors Serenade48      8    10-0    Anthony Honeyball     137    —    —
212P-1    Vintage Star47    7    10-0    Sue Smith     137    133    174
212P-    Hawkes Point290      8    10-0    Paul Nicholls     137    108    173
090-84    Saint Are35    7    9-13    Tim Vaughan     136    133    166
3P0-FP    Pete The Feat45    9    9-12    Charlie Longsdon     135    113    176
F/43-2    Mister Marker55    9    9-12    Nicky Richards     135    121    167
3131-7    Amigo58      6    9-12    David Pipe     135    81    101
37-313    Gas Line Boy35    7    9-11    Philip Hobbs     134    78    165
21U5-2    Loch Ba45      7    9-11    Mick Channon     134    155    168
P-3313    Storm Survivor77    7    9-11    Jonjo O´Neill     134    147    167
1022-0    Chartreux101    8    9-11    Tom George     134    126    166
374-4    Alfie Sherrin35      10    9-11    Jonjo O´Neill     134    142    164
02-U3    Swincombe Rock41    8    9-10    David Bridgwater     133    154    167
3156-8    Panther Claw34    7    9-10    Paul Nolan     133    148    165
8-2113    Sivola De Sivola56    7    9-10    Tom George     133    113    167
502-20    Knock A Hand35      8    9-10    Richard Lee     133    129    164
1241-3    Mountainous45      8    9-9    Richard Lee     132    153    168
1117-6    Emperor´s Choice41      6    9-9    Venetia Williams     132    143    171
3P-03    Ace High35      9    9-9    David Pipe     132    70    166
874-26    Tour Des Champs42      6    9-9    Nigel Twiston-Davies     132    138    165
1P823-    Real Milan248    8    9-9    Donald McCain     132    133    166
139-41    Handy Andy43    7    9-8    Colin Tizzard     131    129    160
15586-    Sraid Padraig293    7    9-8    A J Martin     131    91    150
17PP-1    Harouet78    8    9-7    Peter Bowen     130    98    162
2114-2    Red Rocco35    6    9-7    Nigel Twiston-Davies     130    94    164
5P-PP    Halley55    6    9-7    Tom George     130    —    —
3411P-    Safran De Cotte283      7    9-7    Henry Daly     130    133    159
5192-5    Ballyoliver49    9    9-6    Venetia Williams     129    145    163
40-331    Boyfromnowhere41    6    9-6    Rebecca Curtis     129    147    162
5111-2    Denali Highway42    6    9-5    Caroline Bailey     128    149    163
3342-1    Global Power55    7    9-5    Oliver Sherwood     128    124    159
1180-1    Yellow Ball219    5    9-5    Venetia Williams     128    —    139
U2044    Rockyaboya34    9    9-4    W P Mullins     127    116    161
12PP-P    Relax35      8    9-4    Venetia Williams     127    159    170
PP56-5    Going Wrong37    10    9-4    Dan Skelton     127    107    158
123-F3    One In A Milan36    8    9-3    Evan Williams     126    143    158
1-174F    Living Next Door34    7    9-3    A J Martin     126    59    158
2441-P    Netminder70    7    9-2    Sandy Thomson     125    122    158
3FU1-    Valoroso287    8    9-2    Richard Woollacott     125    124    157
2F132-    Fentara252    8    9-2    Tim Walford     125    142    163
1021-7    De La Bech49    6    9-1    Philip Hobbs     124    108    156
53126-    Big News271    7    9-0    Richard Lee     123    132    156
131P-8    Monsieur Cadou55    8    8-13    Tom George     122    87    156
03P-00    Restless Harry35    9    8-13    Robin Dickin     122    79    156
1F-228    Lamboro Lad49    8    8-13    Peter Bowen     122    135    157
4261-7    Flying Award41      9    8-12    Susan Gardner     121    116    158
130-32    Unoccupied55      7    8-11    Eoghan O´Grady     120    95    151
P-8FR4    Triggerman34    11    8-10    Philip Hobbs     119    110    154
355-75    Our Island35    8    8-10    Tim Vaughan     119    132    163
127-75    Rebeccas Choice47      10    8-9    Dai Burchell     118    150    155
3313-5    Milo Milan58    8    8-8    Richard Lee     117    143    155
U2-534    Incentivise35      10    8-8    Richard Lee     117    140    154
1F-2F1    Bendant36      8    8-8    Debra Hamer     117    121    152
3P-URP    Sarando36    8    8-5    Alex Hales     114    —    —
531P-1    Papamoa59    8    8-4    N W Alexander     113    115    146
52U1-P    Mister Philson35    8    8-1    S R B Crawford     110    78    144
211-PP    The Clyda Rover41    9    8-0    Helen Nelmes     109    113    141
1137-4    Xaarcet48    6     Colin Tizzard     118    63    102
Pause Switch to Standard View **Coral Welsh National**
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Report ReaseHeath November 28, 2013 5:36 PM GMT
she said with the Welsh National there is always a weather concern and he's well enough to have a crack at the Hennessy.

Can understand it, nearly 5 weeks since he ran so they'd be between a rock and a hard place if Welsh National abandoned or postponed
Report ReaseHeath November 28, 2013 5:39 PM GMT
...also I suppose after last season's nightmare she's keen to run them whilst they're in good form and rude health.

Of course, she might end up with egg on her face if he has a tough race on Sat without winning, then she runs him in Welsh National unsuccessfully and that leaves a mark on him for the rest of the season.
Report sintonian November 28, 2013 6:16 PM GMT
yes fair point, best to run them when fit and well.
Report betilyerded November 29, 2013 4:33 PM GMT
Sustained support for Safron De Cotte (25's to 16's) and not pricewise inspired either. Due out on Sunday at Carlisle which suggests a big run is expected and stable going very well.
Report knot in wood November 30, 2013 3:50 PM GMT
always thought this race was made for merry king,todays run in the hennessy as not put me off.
Report sintonian November 30, 2013 5:35 PM GMT
Generally speaking you want to avoid any horses who ran in the hennessy in this race, not enough recovery time between the two.
Report Stevie Gerrard November 30, 2013 6:58 PM GMT
I quite like Hawke's Point, before Cheltenham he had beaten Gullinbursti and also finished 2nd to Harry Topper and in front of Bensalem and Pearlysteps. Those lines of form suggest to me he is a mid 140s horse, and you'd think from watching his races the welsh national would be ideal as he had looked a dour stayer until the cheltenham run. I have had some small amounts on here at 28 and 30 so far.
Report forgotmyusername November 30, 2013 9:46 PM GMT
Alfie Sherrin jumps off the page for me. Trainer has a fine record in such races and thought he ran a cracker against some unexposed types in the Fixed Brush hurdle. Not that many miles on the clock for a 10 year old and stamina assured, think he has to be on anyone's short list.
Report betilyerded November 30, 2013 11:14 PM GMT
Im not a trends man but Ive always made it a rule not to back ANYTHING that ran in the Hennessy in the Welsh National - just feel its an after-thought rather than the plan (my records go back 18 years and the winner has never come from the race). I broke that rule a few years back and fell for High Chimes after a staying on 6th in Hennessy. Welsh trainer, won on heavy, Chepstow form etc. etc. Ran a stinker and pulled up. Will never do it again.
As for a 10 year old winning it... Riverside Boy, 1993. Only Martin Pipe when he won it 5 years in 6 managed to pull it off.
Save your money on Alfie Sherrin and back him for Aintree, for that surely is the plan. Just remember Richie McLernon after he won at the festival 2 years back immediately saying he would love to ride him around the national fences as hes some tool. Jonjo plays the long game, as we all know, and my moneys down already - 33-1 5 places at Betvictor.
Report jasey December 1, 2013 12:49 AM GMT
Yes Alfie Sherrin is a national plot,ran last week in same hurdle race as sunnyhillboy did on route to his great run at Aintree.
Heavy ground would be against Alfie as well
Report sintonian December 1, 2013 11:26 AM GMT
Synchronised ran in the same race too before his win in the Lexus. Jonjo clearly uses it as a prep for one of his best staying chasers.
Report judorick December 1, 2013 2:00 PM GMT
shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh about Alfie
Report betilyerded December 1, 2013 3:41 PM GMT
Alfie? Alfie who?Whoops

Anyhoo, thats Safron de Cotte off my WN shorltlist after that laboured performance. Strong in the market today which suggests this wasnt a warm-up and well backed ante post last couple of days.. I pressumed they had waited for the weights to come out to run him under a penalty so all in all a pretty mediocre performance.
Hoping to see Emperors Choice entered up at Chepstow next weekend.
Report ReaseHeath December 1, 2013 4:44 PM GMT
pretty encouraged by HBS effort yesterday, over a distance short enough on a flat track and on ground as lively as he would want plus the first two pulled well clear and the second appears to be an animal of some potential (but I'm biased so I would say that!)

Another to catch my eye on a circumstantial basis is One in a Milan - trainer on record as stating he knows the horse is well handicapped and looks like he might have had his mark protected for this - he's entered over fences at Ludlow on Wednesday so we might learn a bit more then.

The weather is becoming a slight cause for concern - don't think I'm alone in assuming this will be a slog in the mud but it's been unseasonally dry and there is virtually no rain in the forecast for Monmouthshire over the next 10 days, they race at Chepstow next Saturday so let's see how the track is riding then. Appreciate it's the best part of a month away yet and both weather and forecast can change quickly.
Report betilyerded December 1, 2013 8:39 PM GMT
It was a good effort by HBS though he obviously gets a penalty so is a little less attractively handicapped now than he was. He does, however, go into the race in form, unlike some. He's a funny horse as Ive always had him down as a mudlark but arguably his best last 5 or 6 runs have been on g/s or better so maybe a slog in the Chepstow mud (assuming it does rain at some point!) is not what he needs.

I read the same Evan Williams article (may have been the RP stable tour) about One In A Milan but cant say there was much encouragement at Ffos las the other week and he has been guilty of bigging up a horse in the past to no avail. See if he runs Wednesday.
Report slowerthanjohn December 1, 2013 9:08 PM GMT
Jonjo is a master when he steps up horses markedly in trip but have to agree on previous form Alfie doesn't want a slog. If it was unusually decent ground then big big chance as I think he has to go up a few pounds to get into the Grand National. Hate to be boring but I do think if it's heavy then Goonyella will be a massive player, really like his Troytown run finished behind some decent sorts in Mad Brian who I think has a big handicap in him and Colbert Station a decent yardstick. It wasn't enough of a test for him and if he gets the usual Welsh National conditions he is the horse to beat as he is only 6yo and lightly raced.
Report sintonian December 1, 2013 9:28 PM GMT
Owner is saying Rocky Creek will run here .. presumably off 156 or thereabouts? He'll need to be a better horse than Synchronised to win off that mark. He'll make the market for the rest.
Report shockster December 2, 2013 7:26 PM GMT
Have backed Ace High and not too worried if he's a few pound wrong at the weights if Tidal Bay runs and even better if hr doesn't.  Acts really well round the track and I thought a cracking first run for D.Pipe last time at Haydock. Travelled like the best horse IMO and will be bottom weight not top weight on favoured track.
Report BJG December 2, 2013 8:17 PM GMT
sintonian     Joined: 21 Sep 04
Replies: 22240 01 Dec 13 21:28 
Owner is saying Rocky Creek will run here .. presumably off 156 or thereabouts? He'll need to be a better horse than Synchronised to win off that mark. He'll make the market for the rest.


Nicholls said Lexus in the RP
Report betilyerded December 3, 2013 6:55 PM GMT
Hadnt looked at Ace High shockster but has to be of interest. Cant knock his novice win at Chepstow beating Duke of Lucca and Teaforthree hands down despite some iffy jumps and a tendancy to go right which appears to have stayed with him up until his debut for Pipe the other saturday. Was apparently injured after that but had been targeted at last seasons Hennessy until a bad run at Ascot (that was just prior to Dartnall having to shut down because of the herpes virus so may have been one of the affected horses as he ran no sort of race that day). Guess you can forgive his first run back (unlike his ownersCool) and lots to like about his Haydock run, particularly if theres more to come. If there is, he could be well handicapped and he looks a big horse so a light weight would be good. Hasnt been committed to the race yet but there will be worse 33-1 pokes on the day if he turns up. Still not entirely convinced by his jumping, however.
Report Winnerallrite December 3, 2013 7:01 PM GMT
I agree with Global Power have had a little nibble interesting if he does get in to the race
Report morpteh mackem December 3, 2013 7:43 PM GMT
anyone like amigo ?
Report ReaseHeath December 3, 2013 9:39 PM GMT
Amigo was the second PW tip after Goonyella.
Report betilyerded December 4, 2013 7:53 PM GMT
Thats One In A Milan's goose cooked as well, if you can forgive the pre-christmas pun...Looks like Evan has misjudged a horses ability - again.
Report Stevie Gerrard December 7, 2013 10:00 AM GMT
There are a few welsh national entries running in the last at Sandown today and also in the 2.00 Chepstow. Obviously I'm hoping Hawkes Point runs a decent race.
Report sintonian December 7, 2013 11:17 AM GMT
14:00 Chepstow - Hawkes Point

Had some good form against decent novices last season, but has been slow to come to hand and I make no secret of the fact that this is a prep race for the Welsh National. So I have left a bit to work on. But I can see him developing into a decent stayer on soft ground this season.
Report Meat Loaf December 7, 2013 9:33 PM GMT
Red Rocco for Twiston-davies looks very interesting. Proven stayer on soft ground and still with potential improvement. I'm on at 190s
Report sintonian December 9, 2013 8:49 PM GMT
Emma Lavelle has said Highland Lodge will run all being well. He is 1lb lower now for his 4th place at Newbury.
Report CVByrne December 9, 2013 10:57 PM GMT
Merry King, Tidal Bay, Vesper Bell, Well Refreshed would be my shortlist
Report ReaseHeath December 16, 2013 9:09 PM GMT
Sydney Paget is indeed entered in Tommy Whittle at Haydock on Saturday.

Emperor's Choice, Loch Ba, Night Alliance, Nuts N Bolts, One in a Milan, Safran De Cotte, Storm Survivor and Super Duty are other Welsh National entries also engaged in Tommy Whittle.

Still can't see any point in getting involved until 5 day dec stage at the earliest.
Report sintonian December 16, 2013 9:26 PM GMT
Unless you're backing Global Power Wink
Report alleged22 December 16, 2013 9:30 PM GMT
just the one horse jumping out at me

that old dog TIDAL BAY
Report sintonian December 17, 2013 12:24 PM GMT
Silver By Nature was runner-up in the Chepstow marathon back in 2009 and the grey returned to form with a second behind Sydney Paget at Haydock last month, while Nuts N Bolts was a six-length winner on the same card

"Both hold entries in the Welsh National," the Kinross trainer told www.lucindarussell.com.

Profiles Miss
Lucinda
V
Russell Silver By Nature Nuts N Bolts
"Nuts N Bolts will also have entries at Wetherby in the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase, and at Haydock in The Last Fling Chase.

"Silver By Nature will also retain his entry at Leopardstown in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase."
Report sintonian December 18, 2013 11:29 AM GMT
Sydney Paget not going to run says McCain.
Report CVByrne December 19, 2013 10:59 AM GMT
Merry King – A horse Jonjo has had in mind for this race since last season. Has twice been staying on in two big handicaps this season at Ascot and then was a plugging on 5th in the Hennessy despite making a very bad blunder at the 2nd last. The step up in trip looks like it will suit him well as he appears to have plenty of stamina. Jonjo seems to think he wants soft ground and he’ll likely get that at Chepstow. He certainly had no problem with it when going down by a nose to 148 rated Cannington Brook at Haydock last year. That fine effort was at the age of 5. Hopefully he’s progressed and will improve for the conditions of this race. 

Well Refreshed – Loves deep ground and won 3 on the bounce last winter including the Grand National Trial at Haydock in Feb. Ran no race at all on his final start in the Bet365 at Sandown on good ground. Has always needed his first run off a break so we can ignore his effort at Cheltenham in October. But he ran a superb race to be a 2l 3rd to There’s No Panic at Sandown this month, despite making many bad blunders on his way round he kept on. This depth of stamina and willingness to go on despite errors is a good trait. With likely testing conditions at Chepstow he holds very strong claims if he can brush up a bit on his jumping. 

1.5pt Merry King 14/1
1.5pt Well Refreshed 12/1

jumpsadvisor.com
Report harry callaghan December 19, 2013 11:16 AM GMT
cv byrne is this jumpsadvisor your site or is the ramping for a friend??
Report alleged22 December 19, 2013 11:25 AM GMT
think its his site harry
Report harry callaghan December 19, 2013 11:47 AM GMT
think it is or is alleged

fair enough, simple question just wanted to know?
Report CVByrne December 19, 2013 12:01 PM GMT
Yes Harry it's my site. I just copy my articles from there to post on here as I've no reply tool for discussion on my site.

Feel putting the time in to do a piece on big races and putting it up there will help me do proper analysis. I find my biggest weakness right now is lazy betting, looking at half the runners of a race etc..
Report harry callaghan December 19, 2013 12:19 PM GMT
fair enough, certainly keeps you honest as a punter...

tricky game for sure...you should certainly put in your profit/loss running total...should help you and also let people know how you are getting on profit wise...or maybe a small piece of your bets

nice start with double ross i see
Report CVByrne December 19, 2013 1:25 PM GMT
Yeah was thinking what way was best to do the site. It's only new and it's a bit messy with regards Antepost betting on Cheltenham. I've loads of bets placed but they're not posted all in one place place and the odds have changed a lot.

I'll keep a p&l monthly total for the big race betting advice and see how that goes. Move to more structured approach next season when I can have the whole season.

Don't know what to do with the Weekday betting blog. It's more betting out of boredom than any solid money maker for me. Stakes are always lower midweek as racing quality is lower. Will probably do a monthly p&l in there too so people can see the difference.

I'll find the right way to essentially have my betting out there. So everybody can see, one thing that has always grated with me was people doubting you or calling you a liar about bets. The best way to prove you can make money is to put it out there on a site like this.
Report sintonian December 19, 2013 1:37 PM GMT
Not if you are the moderator CV. Details can always be changed/deleted.

Best way is an open forum like this where nothing can be amended.
Report sintonian December 19, 2013 1:47 PM GMT
There are plenty of sites out there which fudge their results so it makes it difficult from a trust point of view. Ofcourse you wouldn't do that! But my point is forums whereby noone has the ownership of moderator tools are better to record P&L's imo.
Report harry callaghan December 19, 2013 1:55 PM GMT
well good luck, tough game

i'll try not to pick the bones out of your selections to much and although you think it doesn't help, it is a forum and sometimes horses need to be discussed and the method behind the selections


Don't know what to do with the Weekday betting blog. It's more betting out of boredom than any solid money maker for me. Stakes are always lower midweek as racing quality is lower.

not sure i agree at all with this, as every bet should carry confidence which is the whole point of putting pts to your selection on a tipping service ie £100 a point. stakes cannot be lower as this is how a points scale works
Report CVByrne December 19, 2013 2:48 PM GMT
You have a point sint about the site that you can make changes to it. But surely when you've posted it up and tweeted the link if you ever then went and changed what you've bet you'd lose all credibility?

Also blog has exact date and time of the post. So could post your selection in there and odds then link to the article on the site?

I suppose it's best best to keep posting selections on here as it's permanent too.
Report CVByrne December 19, 2013 3:02 PM GMT
Harry discussion does help, so feel free to pick the bones of selections. I'm happy to discuss reasoning behind the picks.

I think you may be right about the betting blog. If you're going to put it out there then it should count as much as any other bet. I bet far too much midweek anyway and can force myself to bet less and be more focused with what goes up there.

But the site is trying to make the distinction between £10 & £20 weekday bets and the £50 & £100 bets that are placed on the big races.

Maybe I'll keep a consistent stake level of 1pt is £50 and give fractions and multiples of of that across the site.
Report Facts December 20, 2013 6:11 PM GMT
^ on the right lines ( staking wise)imo.

Two for the race:-

Sydney Paget
Well Rehearsed
Report sixtwosix December 20, 2013 7:59 PM GMT
Goonyella price has gone now of course.
Saddle slipped in Irish National. travels superly well very good debut second place before the faster ground scuppered him last time.
This race looks tailor made for him just like Notra Pere , can see no other winner.
Report Stevie Gerrard December 20, 2013 9:04 PM GMT
currently
soft, heavy in places
and plenty more rain forecast.
Report betilyerded December 20, 2013 10:10 PM GMT
Whats happening with Sydney Paget? All set to run tomorrow but noticed yesterday that Tidal bay was withdrawn from Lexus and all of a sudden SP not declared to run Saturday. Is the horse wrong or have they had a change of heart? Had SP at 25's for Welsh National but laid off after Tommy Whittle was stated intended target - now it could well be running. All too much for my tiny brain to cope with. Surely off such a light weight he would hose up at Chepstow should Tidal Bay run but now Ive lost my tasty price. Boo-hoo. Boo-hoo.
Report ReaseHeath December 20, 2013 10:52 PM GMT
McCain was on ATR in the week, betily - prize money for the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown next Friday is very appealing apparently, thinks he's too young for Welsh National yet.

He suggested he would go to Ireland if not the Tommy Whittle, don't hold me to that though - you know what they're like for changing their mind.
Report sintonian December 21, 2013 1:02 PM GMT
You did well to lay it off in time, Betil.

Sadly Silver By Nature died on the gallops this morning.
Report sintonian December 21, 2013 1:04 PM GMT
Some of these run at Haydock today. I would be surprised if they ran next weekend too.

Still hope Global Power gets in but looks doubtful.
Report betilyerded December 21, 2013 5:55 PM GMT
Yeah, youre right. Didnt run today because the horse was a bit quiet but isnt going to go to Chepstow anyway so thats okay. Well, actually, its not as Id rather he ran but theres not much I can do about that now!
Very sad news about Silver By Nature btw (or Tonto to the stable). great old horse and had a good chance again this year. Condolences to all connections.
Report sintonian December 21, 2013 6:04 PM GMT
Final acceptors on Monday so that will make things a lot clearer!
Report liberator of the oppressed December 22, 2013 6:36 PM GMT
Understand Goonie on the way over Xmas Eve. Oi Oi.
Report sageform December 23, 2013 8:07 AM GMT
I am currently leaning towards De La Bech but will wait until the weights and the going are clear. If the forecast is right, I can see it being almost untraceable or even postponed.
Report ReaseHeath December 23, 2013 10:37 AM GMT
you're making me nervous now, one of my favourite races of the year.

weather looks OK after today though - some heavy rain forecast for Fri morning but not too bad otherwise, will be a slog but should be on?
Report stevo1 December 23, 2013 10:53 AM GMT
Merry King for me been waiting for distance of ground, not sure bout going ( re will be almost heavy but same for all ) defo overpriced still.
Will back again when declared.
Report BJG December 23, 2013 1:48 PM GMT
35     121-15    Tidal Bay35      12    11-12    Paul Nicholls48    Daryl Jacob     163    56    172
34     86203-    Teaforthree266      9    11-2    Rebecca Curtis63         153    162    170
32     612-00    Same Difference28    7    10-10    Nigel Twiston-Davies68         147    157    171
33     2175-1    Sydney Paget35      6    10-8    Donald McCain86         145    136    169
15     52P-41    Hey Big Spender28      10    10-3    Colin Tizzard60         140    157    174
16     356-24    Highland Lodge28    7    10-6    Emma Lavelle67         143    164    175
12     1162-0    Goulanes42    7    10-6    David Pipe33         143    121    173
21     220-25    Merry King28    6    10-3    Jonjo O´Neill44         140    131    171
41     103-99    Wyck Hill21      9    10-3    David Bridgwater50         140    153    171
40     11P-03    Well Refreshed21      9    10-2    Gary Moore55         139    124    176
11     3P1-25    Goonyella34      6    10-1    J T R Dreaper100         138    127    172
14     212P-4    Hawkes Point21      8    10-0    Paul Nicholls48    Ryan Mahon     137    129    173
18     02-201    Knock A Hand13      8    9-10    Richard Lee50         133    146    174
39     12P-12    Vintage Star28      7    10-0    Sue Smith57         137    143    176
31     090-84    Saint Are35    7    9-13    Tim Vaughan63         136    133    166
3     131-70    Amigo29      6    9-12    David Pipe33         135    81    101
7     022-00    Chartreux21    8    9-11    Tom George67         134    126    166
2     374-4    Alfie Sherrin35      10    9-11    Jonjo O´Neill44         134    142    164
24     241-33    Mountainous21      8    9-9    Richard Lee50         132    153    168
36     874-26    Tour Des Champs42      6    9-9    Nigel Twiston-Davies68         132    138    165
1     3P-03    Ace High35      9    9-9    David Pipe33         132    70    166
29     2114-2    Red Rocco35    6    9-7    Nigel Twiston-Davies68         130    94    164
13     7PP-16    Harouet27    8    9-7    Peter Bowen38         130    109    162
4     5192-5    Ballyoliver49    9    9-6    Venetia Williams65         129    145    163
6     40-331    Boyfromnowhere41    6    9-6    Rebecca Curtis63         129    147    162
10     3342-1    Global Power55    7    9-5    Oliver Sherwood100         128    124    159
8     021-71    De La Bech21      6    9-1    Philip Hobbs56         124    122    162
20     1-174F    Living Next Door34    7    9-3    A J Martin40         126    59    158
26     23-F3P    One In A Milan24    8    9-3    Evan Williams50         126    143    158
25     441-P5    Netminder28    7    9-2    Sandy Thomson100         125    117    158
9     F132-P    Fentara28    8    9-2    Tim Walford         125    142    163
38     3FU1-5    Valoroso28    8    9-2    Richard Woollacott50         125    124    157
5     126-FP    Big News10    7    9-0    Richard Lee50         123    131    156
19     1F-228    Lamboro Lad49    8    8-13    Peter Bowen38         122    135    157
30     03P-00    Restless Harry35    9    8-13    Robin Dickin75         122    79    156
37     130-32    Unoccupied55      7    8-11    Eoghan O´Grady         120    95    151
27     355-75    Our Island35    8    8-10    Tim Vaughan63         119    132    163
28     27-753    Rebeccas Choice20      10    8-9    Dai Burchell    Robert Dunne3     118    150    155
22     3313-5    Milo Milan58    8    8-8    Richard Lee50         117    143    155
17     2-5346    Incentivise22      10    8-8    Richard Lee50         117    140    154
23     2U1-P4    Mister Philson17      8    8-1    S R B Crawford100         110    107    144
Report sintonian December 23, 2013 4:25 PM GMT
The ground is going to be Heavy.

Global Power is 26th on the list now so still needs a few more to drop out.

Tidal Bay running is an absolute ball ache. Lots of trainers are going to struggle to find a jockey to do the weight.
Report ReaseHeath December 23, 2013 4:31 PM GMT
Nicholls has kept Tidal Bay in and got Hawkes Point in bang on his mark and already declared Mahon to ride, he was n't born yesterday.

Tidal Bay has been taken out of the Lexus so is obviously going to run here.

About half the field will be out of the handicap, I think?
Report alleged22 December 23, 2013 11:13 PM GMT
ive backed tidal bay Happy
Report sageform December 24, 2013 7:54 AM GMT
Another inch of rain on Friday will make it very doubtful imo.
Report sixtwosix December 24, 2013 9:15 AM GMT
Goonyella carrying 10 stone 1 pound in heavy ground if Tidal Bay stay in ......Grin
Report BJG December 24, 2013 3:52 PM GMT
Goonyella's ferry was cancelled so still in Ireland - tryin to reshedule but the Paddy Power would b plan B
Report BJG December 24, 2013 4:03 PM GMT
Jim Dreaper has had to come up with a Plan B to get Coral Welsh National fancy Goonyella to Chepstow on Saturday after stormy weather scuppered his original thinking.

Dreaper had hoped to send the six-year-old on the journey from Ireland on Tuesday as there are no ferries leaving the Republic on Christmas Day or the 26th.

However, due to rough seas the ferry companies would not allow livestock to travel, and Dreaper will now send his charge up to Belfast in the hope he can sail on Thursday.

Dreaper won the race in 2008 with the seven-year-old Notre Pere, who went on to win at Grade One level.

"We didn't get him away today, which was the plan," said Dreaper, whose charge is joint-favourite with a number of firms in company with Well Refreshed.

"The sea was too rough and they weren't shipping any animals., so that was a shame.

"What we are planning to do now is to sail from Belfast on Thursday morning, which means a lot more driving when we get to the UK but there you go.

"There's no ferries from (southern) Ireland on St Stephen's Day so that's why we are having to do it like that.

"Other than that everything is fine, the horse is very well and the ground is in his favour."
Report x20 December 24, 2013 4:35 PM GMT
Forecast weather is good for Thursday so good luck to the connections for perservering and hope it all proves worthwhile. I really fancied Goony and still do but it seems to me there are any number who can win this having looked in more depth.

Just a thought but weather forecast for Friday is very poor so hope the english travellers plan correctly to get to Leopardstown.....
Report liberator of the oppressed December 25, 2013 10:43 AM GMT
Has Goonie got on the boat yet? Me antepost bet is wavering.
Report JOCI Club December 25, 2013 10:20 PM GMT
This is what the TRENDS say:

Highland Lodge 80%
Amigo 76%
Sydney Paget 70%


Vintage Star 67%
16 Global Power 66%
Hawkes Point 66%
Mountainous 66%
15 De La Bech 66%
Saint Are 65%
Same Difference 65%
Knock A Hand 64%
Tour Des Champs 64%
Teaforthree 61%
Goulanes 60%
11 Fentara 60%
20 Red Rocco 60%
1 Mister Philson 60%
13 One In A Milan 59%
Alfie Sherrin 58%
Merry King 58%
Goonyella 58%
21 Ace High 58%
Well Refreshed 57%
Tidal Bay 57%
Hey Big Spender 56%
12 Netminder 53%
9 Big News 53%
5 Our Island 53%
6 Unoccupied 52%
7 Restless Harry 51%
Chartreux 50%
17 Boyfromnowhere 46%
4 Rebeccas Choice 46%
10 Valoroso 44%
Wyck Hill 43%
18 Ballyoliver 38%
3 Milo Milan 38%
14 Living Next Door 37%
19 Harouet 35%
8 Lamboro Lad 30%
2 Incentivise 30%

My three against the field are:

Highland Lodge @ 12
Amigo @ 30
Sydney Paget (SP if runs)
Report JOCI Club December 25, 2013 10:24 PM GMT
Think Mr Pipe has done the old:

(1) give Amigo a run round at the back of a chase first time out
(2) honed his fitness in a handicap hurdle last time out, without affecting his handicap mark

All of which might mean..........

(3) will be a completely different animal in the big event!

Let's hope so anyway.
Report BJG December 26, 2013 11:07 AM GMT
Goonyella nt entered in PP so all must b ok with travel this mornin
Report liberator of the oppressed December 26, 2013 1:00 PM GMT
Yippee BJG. Lovely day for sailing.
Report BJG December 27, 2013 12:02 PM GMT
NO.    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
1     121-15    Tidal Bay35      12    11-12    Paul Nicholls50    Daryl Jacob     163    56    172
2     86203-    Teaforthree266      9    11-2    Rebecca Curtis70    Patrick Corbett5     153    162    170
3     52P-41    Hey Big Spender28 4xt      10    10-7    Colin Tizzard63    Joe Tizzard     144    153    170
4     356-24    Highland Lodge28    7    10-6    Emma Lavelle69    Leighton Aspell     143    164    175
5     1162-0    Goulanes42 b1    7    10-6    David Pipe32    Tom Scudamore     143    121    173
6     220-25    Merry King28    6    10-3    Jonjo O´Neill42    Richie McLernon     140    131    171
7     103-99    Wyck Hill21      9    10-3    David Bridgwater50    Tom O'Brien     140    153    171
8     11P-03    Well Refreshed21      9    10-2    Gary Moore55    Joshua Moore3     139    124    176
9     3P1-25    Goonyella34      6    10-1    J T R Dreaper50    A E Lynch     138    127    172
10     12P-12    Vintage Star28      7    10-0    Sue Smith67    Ryan Mania     137    143    176
11     212P-4    Hawkes Point21      8    10-0    Paul Nicholls50    Ryan Mahon     137    129    173
12     02-201    Knock A Hand13 4xb      8    10-0    Richard Lee60    Tom Cannon     137    146    174
13     131-70    Amigo29 tb1      6    10-0    David Pipe32    Conor O'Farrell     135    81    101
14     022-00    Chartreux21    8    10-0    Tom George62    Paddy Brennan     134    126    166
15     241-33    Mountainous21      8    10-0    Richard Lee60    Paul Moloney     132    153    168
16     874-26    Tour Des Champs42      6    10-0    Nigel Twiston-Davies68    Sam Twiston-Davies     132    138    165
17     3P-03    Ace High35      9    10-0    David Pipe32     132    70    166
18     2114-2    Red Rocco35    6    10-0    Nigel Twiston-Davies68    Adam Wedge     130    94    164
19     7PP-16    Harouet27 p    8    10-0    Peter Bowen36    Jamie Moore     130    109    162
20     23-F3P    One In A Milan24    8    10-0    Evan Williams39    Conor Ring7     126    143    158
Report sintonian December 27, 2013 12:10 PM GMT
No Global Power.

Hawkes Point has to be of interest now.
Report betilyerded December 27, 2013 3:22 PM GMT
Hawkes Point looks desperately slow sint. I know you need a stayer but he makes Just So look like Frankel!
Report betilyerded December 27, 2013 3:31 PM GMT
Having gone round in circles Im taking a chance on Tidal Bay for one last hurrah. Jacobs won the Bet 365 off top weight on his only ride on the horse and his second in last years hennessy also off top weight wasnt shabby form either. His hurdle victory shows the talent is still there and was hardly disgraced behind Cue Card & Silvi Conti in the Betfair chase. Not sure he can win but will give us a good run for the cash at 16's.
Report shockster December 27, 2013 3:58 PM GMT
I agree with all about Tidal Bay and think I'll have a saver.  Really fancy ACE HIGH though. Will carry only 9st7 and likes the track, trip and going.  Massively overpriced at 33/1 IMO.  Showed improved form last time at Haydock where he had 11st12 on his back and looked the winner turning in.  He has to go close. Well I hope so.
Report sintonian December 27, 2013 6:03 PM GMT
He's out of the weights Shockster..
Report sintonian December 27, 2013 6:06 PM GMT
Just seen jockey is claiming 7lb though..
Report sintonian December 27, 2013 6:16 PM GMT
As much as I avoid backing horses that ran in the Hennessy given their awful record in this race immediately after, I might just have to back Highland Lodge. He is in the weights proper, loves soft ground and faced an impossible task conceding the 26lb to Standing Ovation. He's been dropped a pound for Newbury but is runnning off his old rating, which is annoying. But, my original bet in this race was Global Power. I do not know why he is not running (does anyone? ) as he would have got in given bottom OR is 126, but it might be something to do with Leighton Aspell who rides the majority of Oliver Sherwood's horses so would have ridden Global Power or had the choice between the two. He has also won this race before on L'Aventure.
Report ThunderRoad December 27, 2013 7:04 PM GMT
Gotta be Tidal Bay for me - for one last hurrah
Report JOCI Club December 27, 2013 8:46 PM GMT
Trends for the final field:

Highland Lodge    80%
Amigo    76%

Vintage Star    67%
Hawkes Point    66%
Mountainous    66%
Knock A Hand    64%
Merry King    64%
Tour Des Champs    64%
Teaforthree    61%
Goulanes    60%
Red Rocco    60%
One In A Milan    59%
Goonyella    58%
Ace High    58%
Well Refreshed    57%
Tidal Bay    57%
Hey Big Spender    56%
Chartreux    50%
Wyck Hill    43%
Harouet    35%
Report Brooksielad December 27, 2013 10:34 PM GMT
Tour Des Champs for me, out of the handicap but not by much, the most important thing is that he has his ground. If you read his form all his best efforts have come on ground described as testing, hes only a 6 year old who the twisters think highly of and they have always said he'd be a national sort from a young age. Expect a prominent ride from the off, highly confident of a bold showing.
Report JOCI Club December 27, 2013 11:40 PM GMT
Have listed the horses below in order of stamina (as suggested by the longest distance they have won over going into this race). Tne % is their trends ranking.

[b]Teaforthree     61%        32F (Good)
Tidal Bay     57%        30F (Soft)
Goonyella     58%        30F (Heavy)
Well Refreshed     57%        29F (Soft)
Hey Big Spender     56%        29F (Good to Soft))
Chartreux     50%        28F (Soft
)
[/b]Vintage Star     67%        26F (Soft)
Goulanes     60%        26F (Soft)
Highland Lodge     80%        26F (Heavy)
Harouet             35%        26F (Heavy)
Wyck Hill     43%        25F (Soft)
Amigo             76%        25F (Good to Soft))
Knock A Hand     64%        25F (Good to Soft))
Hawkes Point     66%        24F (Heavy)
Mountainous     66%        24F (Heavy)
Tour Des Champs     64%        24F (Heavy)
Red Rocco     60%        24F (Heavy)
One In A Milan     59%        24F (Heavy)
Ace High     58%        24F (Good)
Merry King     64%        21F (Heavy)

The last 3 winners of the Welsh National have shown good stamina prior to the race having won over a minimum of 28 furlongs. However, prior to that there were a few horses winning the National who had only won over 3 miles previously. But, if you're looking at stamina, then you might want to have the top ones listed above on your side.
Report JOCI Club December 27, 2013 11:41 PM GMT
The above excludes PTP wins.
Report ReaseHeath December 27, 2013 11:52 PM GMT
sticking with Hey Big Spender, took a little 25s at 5 day stage and will go back in at best price in the morning. Hope they let him race prominently rather than hunting him around towards the rear as they did when he fell in this race two years ago. Must admit I'm not quite as sure as connections that he'll relish the going but he's the second classiest horse in the race and the classiest has to try to give him 19 lbs.

Will also back Vintage Star at the best price in the morning, has the right sort of profile for the race and seems to be a little under the radar in comparison to some of the other contenders, means I have all my eggs in the basket of the Newcastle Rehearsal Chase form line which is a bit of a worry but I did think it looked decent form at the time.

Of the others, most afraid of Well Refreshed and Hawkes Point.

Goes without saying that I'd be delighted to see the reformed old rogue Tidal Bay win this without any financial involvement!How many Arkle winners have gone on to win the Welsh National?
Report harry callaghan December 28, 2013 2:20 AM GMT
well had a little tickle on knock a hand at 25's think he has been underestimated here given his big field form...main worry is will he get home but willing to take the chance at the price...only 12 in the handicap proper, cannot believe some of these trainers haven't abused some apprenticeships to put them in the weights...

tricky affair as usual but willing to take a small chance here...johnson up
Report Millerracing67 December 28, 2013 2:21 PM GMT
Only a small betting race for me this.
Little bet ew on the Ire hope Goonyella.
Gd luck all Cool
Report JOCI Club December 28, 2013 2:24 PM GMT
Go Amigo go!
Report JOCI Club December 28, 2013 2:27 PM GMT
Or will one of the dour stayers win?

Teaforthree 32F (Good)
Tidal Bay 30F (Soft)
Goonyella 30F (Heavy)
Well Refreshed 29F (Soft)
Hey Big Spender 29F (Good to Soft))
Chartreux 28F (Soft)
Report sintonian December 28, 2013 2:31 PM GMT
thrown 10 eachway at Chartereux 130/1 & 15/1 Excited
Report Stevie Gerrard December 28, 2013 2:53 PM GMT
cracking race, well done all horses. thought Hawkes was going to get it but Mountainous very game.
Report ReaseHeath December 28, 2013 2:56 PM GMT
yep, Tidal Bay a freak of nature, can't believe how well the track has taken all the rain, not quite as attritional as I thought it would be.

well done, winners.
Report sintonian December 28, 2013 2:56 PM GMT
2 more horses to contend the Hennessy and then go into the Welsh National well fancied, and, well beaten. Sad
Report Stevie Gerrard December 28, 2013 3:00 PM GMT
yes a cracker from tidal bay under that big weight
Report knot in wood December 28, 2013 3:11 PM GMT
merry king ran well to be 5,i backed hit ante post 4 places mind. Sad
Report HaylingBilly December 28, 2013 3:58 PM GMT
My old man never taught me much but he did teach me to avoid any Hennessy horse in the Welsh National………..great run by Tidal Bay……...
Report festivalfanatic December 28, 2013 4:31 PM GMT
Never even considered the winner but great result for connections. The Potters have been in the game a very long time and I think used to breed their own when the Duke trained for them.
Report JOCI Club December 28, 2013 6:00 PM GMT
Trends for the final field:

Highland Lodge    80% (PU)
Amigo    76% (7th)
Vintage Star    67% (6th)
Hawkes Point    66% (2nd)
Mountainous    66% (1st)
Knock A Hand    64% (PU)
Merry King    64% (5th)
Tour Des Champs    64% (PU)
Teaforthree    61% (9th)
Goulanes    60% (PU)
Red Rocco    60% (PU)
One In A Milan    59% (4th)
Goonyella    58% (8th)
Ace High    58% (PU)
Well Refreshed    57% (PU)
Tidal Bay    57% (3rd)
Hey Big Spender    56% (PU)
Chartreux    50% (PU)
Wyck Hill    43% (PU)
Harouet    35% (PU)

Suppose all you can say is that most of the top rated horses finished in the top half (1st and 2nd were joint 4th top rated), and most of the lowest rated trend horses finished pulled up (including well fancied Well Refreshed), with the notable exception of Tidal Bay. Highest rated horse disappointed, maybe feeling exertions of Hennessy, and Amigo ran well for a long way.
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