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**Coral Welsh National**
**Coral Welsh National**
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Replies: 115
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Goonyella carrying 10 stone 1 pound in heavy ground if Tidal Bay stay in ......
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Goonyella's ferry was cancelled so still in Ireland - tryin to reshedule but the Paddy Power would b plan B
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Jim Dreaper has had to come up with a Plan B to get Coral Welsh National fancy Goonyella to Chepstow on Saturday after stormy weather scuppered his original thinking.
Dreaper had hoped to send the six-year-old on the journey from Ireland on Tuesday as there are no ferries leaving the Republic on Christmas Day or the 26th. However, due to rough seas the ferry companies would not allow livestock to travel, and Dreaper will now send his charge up to Belfast in the hope he can sail on Thursday. Dreaper won the race in 2008 with the seven-year-old Notre Pere, who went on to win at Grade One level. "We didn't get him away today, which was the plan," said Dreaper, whose charge is joint-favourite with a number of firms in company with Well Refreshed. "The sea was too rough and they weren't shipping any animals., so that was a shame. "What we are planning to do now is to sail from Belfast on Thursday morning, which means a lot more driving when we get to the UK but there you go. "There's no ferries from (southern) Ireland on St Stephen's Day so that's why we are having to do it like that. "Other than that everything is fine, the horse is very well and the ground is in his favour." |
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Forecast weather is good for Thursday so good luck to the connections for perservering and hope it all proves worthwhile. I really fancied Goony and still do but it seems to me there are any number who can win this having looked in more depth.
Just a thought but weather forecast for Friday is very poor so hope the english travellers plan correctly to get to Leopardstown..... |
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Has Goonie got on the boat yet? Me antepost bet is wavering.
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This is what the TRENDS say:
Highland Lodge 80% Amigo 76% Sydney Paget 70% Vintage Star 67% 16 Global Power 66% Hawkes Point 66% Mountainous 66% 15 De La Bech 66% Saint Are 65% Same Difference 65% Knock A Hand 64% Tour Des Champs 64% Teaforthree 61% Goulanes 60% 11 Fentara 60% 20 Red Rocco 60% 1 Mister Philson 60% 13 One In A Milan 59% Alfie Sherrin 58% Merry King 58% Goonyella 58% 21 Ace High 58% Well Refreshed 57% Tidal Bay 57% Hey Big Spender 56% 12 Netminder 53% 9 Big News 53% 5 Our Island 53% 6 Unoccupied 52% 7 Restless Harry 51% Chartreux 50% 17 Boyfromnowhere 46% 4 Rebeccas Choice 46% 10 Valoroso 44% Wyck Hill 43% 18 Ballyoliver 38% 3 Milo Milan 38% 14 Living Next Door 37% 19 Harouet 35% 8 Lamboro Lad 30% 2 Incentivise 30% My three against the field are: Highland Lodge @ 12 Amigo @ 30 Sydney Paget (SP if runs) |
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Think Mr Pipe has done the old:
(1) give Amigo a run round at the back of a chase first time out (2) honed his fitness in a handicap hurdle last time out, without affecting his handicap mark All of which might mean.......... (3) will be a completely different animal in the big event! Let's hope so anyway. |
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Goonyella nt entered in PP so all must b ok with travel this mornin
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Yippee BJG. Lovely day for sailing.
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NO. HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 121-15 Tidal Bay35 12 11-12 Paul Nicholls50 Daryl Jacob 163 56 172 2 86203- Teaforthree266 9 11-2 Rebecca Curtis70 Patrick Corbett5 153 162 170 3 52P-41 Hey Big Spender28 4xt 10 10-7 Colin Tizzard63 Joe Tizzard 144 153 170 4 356-24 Highland Lodge28 7 10-6 Emma Lavelle69 Leighton Aspell 143 164 175 5 1162-0 Goulanes42 b1 7 10-6 David Pipe32 Tom Scudamore 143 121 173 6 220-25 Merry King28 6 10-3 Jonjo O´Neill42 Richie McLernon 140 131 171 7 103-99 Wyck Hill21 9 10-3 David Bridgwater50 Tom O'Brien 140 153 171 8 11P-03 Well Refreshed21 9 10-2 Gary Moore55 Joshua Moore3 139 124 176 9 3P1-25 Goonyella34 6 10-1 J T R Dreaper50 A E Lynch 138 127 172 10 12P-12 Vintage Star28 7 10-0 Sue Smith67 Ryan Mania 137 143 176 11 212P-4 Hawkes Point21 8 10-0 Paul Nicholls50 Ryan Mahon 137 129 173 12 02-201 Knock A Hand13 4xb 8 10-0 Richard Lee60 Tom Cannon 137 146 174 13 131-70 Amigo29 tb1 6 10-0 David Pipe32 Conor O'Farrell 135 81 101 14 022-00 Chartreux21 8 10-0 Tom George62 Paddy Brennan 134 126 166 15 241-33 Mountainous21 8 10-0 Richard Lee60 Paul Moloney 132 153 168 16 874-26 Tour Des Champs42 6 10-0 Nigel Twiston-Davies68 Sam Twiston-Davies 132 138 165 17 3P-03 Ace High35 9 10-0 David Pipe32 132 70 166 18 2114-2 Red Rocco35 6 10-0 Nigel Twiston-Davies68 Adam Wedge 130 94 164 19 7PP-16 Harouet27 p 8 10-0 Peter Bowen36 Jamie Moore 130 109 162 20 23-F3P One In A Milan24 8 10-0 Evan Williams39 Conor Ring7 126 143 158 |
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No Global Power.
Hawkes Point has to be of interest now. |
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Hawkes Point looks desperately slow sint. I know you need a stayer but he makes Just So look like Frankel!
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Having gone round in circles Im taking a chance on Tidal Bay for one last hurrah. Jacobs won the Bet 365 off top weight on his only ride on the horse and his second in last years hennessy also off top weight wasnt shabby form either. His hurdle victory shows the talent is still there and was hardly disgraced behind Cue Card & Silvi Conti in the Betfair chase. Not sure he can win but will give us a good run for the cash at 16's.
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I agree with all about Tidal Bay and think I'll have a saver. Really fancy ACE HIGH though. Will carry only 9st7 and likes the track, trip and going. Massively overpriced at 33/1 IMO. Showed improved form last time at Haydock where he had 11st12 on his back and looked the winner turning in. He has to go close. Well I hope so.
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He's out of the weights Shockster..
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Just seen jockey is claiming 7lb though..
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As much as I avoid backing horses that ran in the Hennessy given their awful record in this race immediately after, I might just have to back Highland Lodge. He is in the weights proper, loves soft ground and faced an impossible task conceding the 26lb to Standing Ovation. He's been dropped a pound for Newbury but is runnning off his old rating, which is annoying. But, my original bet in this race was Global Power. I do not know why he is not running (does anyone? ) as he would have got in given bottom OR is 126, but it might be something to do with Leighton Aspell who rides the majority of Oliver Sherwood's horses so would have ridden Global Power or had the choice between the two. He has also won this race before on L'Aventure.
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Gotta be Tidal Bay for me - for one last hurrah
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Trends for the final field:
Highland Lodge 80% Amigo 76% Vintage Star 67% Hawkes Point 66% Mountainous 66% Knock A Hand 64% Merry King 64% Tour Des Champs 64% Teaforthree 61% Goulanes 60% Red Rocco 60% One In A Milan 59% Goonyella 58% Ace High 58% Well Refreshed 57% Tidal Bay 57% Hey Big Spender 56% Chartreux 50% Wyck Hill 43% Harouet 35% |
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Tour Des Champs for me, out of the handicap but not by much, the most important thing is that he has his ground. If you read his form all his best efforts have come on ground described as testing, hes only a 6 year old who the twisters think highly of and they have always said he'd be a national sort from a young age. Expect a prominent ride from the off, highly confident of a bold showing.
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Have listed the horses below in order of stamina (as suggested by the longest distance they have won over going into this race). Tne % is their trends ranking.
[b]Teaforthree 61% 32F (Good) Tidal Bay 57% 30F (Soft) Goonyella 58% 30F (Heavy) Well Refreshed 57% 29F (Soft) Hey Big Spender 56% 29F (Good to Soft)) Chartreux 50% 28F (Soft) [/b]Vintage Star 67% 26F (Soft) Goulanes 60% 26F (Soft) Highland Lodge 80% 26F (Heavy) Harouet 35% 26F (Heavy) Wyck Hill 43% 25F (Soft) Amigo 76% 25F (Good to Soft)) Knock A Hand 64% 25F (Good to Soft)) Hawkes Point 66% 24F (Heavy) Mountainous 66% 24F (Heavy) Tour Des Champs 64% 24F (Heavy) Red Rocco 60% 24F (Heavy) One In A Milan 59% 24F (Heavy) Ace High 58% 24F (Good) Merry King 64% 21F (Heavy) The last 3 winners of the Welsh National have shown good stamina prior to the race having won over a minimum of 28 furlongs. However, prior to that there were a few horses winning the National who had only won over 3 miles previously. But, if you're looking at stamina, then you might want to have the top ones listed above on your side. |
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The above excludes PTP wins.
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sticking with Hey Big Spender, took a little 25s at 5 day stage and will go back in at best price in the morning. Hope they let him race prominently rather than hunting him around towards the rear as they did when he fell in this race two years ago. Must admit I'm not quite as sure as connections that he'll relish the going but he's the second classiest horse in the race and the classiest has to try to give him 19 lbs.
Will also back Vintage Star at the best price in the morning, has the right sort of profile for the race and seems to be a little under the radar in comparison to some of the other contenders, means I have all my eggs in the basket of the Newcastle Rehearsal Chase form line which is a bit of a worry but I did think it looked decent form at the time. Of the others, most afraid of Well Refreshed and Hawkes Point. Goes without saying that I'd be delighted to see the reformed old rogue Tidal Bay win this without any financial involvement!How many Arkle winners have gone on to win the Welsh National? |
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well had a little tickle on knock a hand at 25's think he has been underestimated here given his big field form...main worry is will he get home but willing to take the chance at the price...only 12 in the handicap proper, cannot believe some of these trainers haven't abused some apprenticeships to put them in the weights...
tricky affair as usual but willing to take a small chance here...johnson up |
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Only a small betting race for me this.
Little bet ew on the Ire hope Goonyella. Gd luck all  |
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Go Amigo go!
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Or will one of the dour stayers win?
Teaforthree 32F (Good) Tidal Bay 30F (Soft) Goonyella 30F (Heavy) Well Refreshed 29F (Soft) Hey Big Spender 29F (Good to Soft)) Chartreux 28F (Soft) |
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thrown 10 eachway at Chartereux 130/1 & 15/1
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cracking race, well done all horses. thought Hawkes was going to get it but Mountainous very game.
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yep, Tidal Bay a freak of nature, can't believe how well the track has taken all the rain, not quite as attritional as I thought it would be.
well done, winners. |
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2 more horses to contend the Hennessy and then go into the Welsh National well fancied, and, well beaten.
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yes a cracker from tidal bay under that big weight
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merry king ran well to be 5,i backed hit ante post 4 places mind.
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My old man never taught me much but he did teach me to avoid any Hennessy horse in the Welsh National………..great run by Tidal Bay……...
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Never even considered the winner but great result for connections. The Potters have been in the game a very long time and I think used to breed their own when the Duke trained for them.
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Trends for the final field:
Highland Lodge 80% (PU) Amigo 76% (7th) Vintage Star 67% (6th) Hawkes Point 66% (2nd) Mountainous 66% (1st) Knock A Hand 64% (PU) Merry King 64% (5th) Tour Des Champs 64% (PU) Teaforthree 61% (9th) Goulanes 60% (PU) Red Rocco 60% (PU) One In A Milan 59% (4th) Goonyella 58% (8th) Ace High 58% (PU) Well Refreshed 57% (PU) Tidal Bay 57% (3rd) Hey Big Spender 56% (PU) Chartreux 50% (PU) Wyck Hill 43% (PU) Harouet 35% (PU) Suppose all you can say is that most of the top rated horses finished in the top half (1st and 2nd were joint 4th top rated), and most of the lowest rated trend horses finished pulled up (including well fancied Well Refreshed), with the notable exception of Tidal Bay. Highest rated horse disappointed, maybe feeling exertions of Hennessy, and Amigo ran well for a long way. |