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the winner of this often (5 in last 10 years) ran in the top 5 in the Paddy Power so you won't go far wrong concentrating on those that did this year. Backed 2 of the 5
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Rick, I can't believe you're being silly enough to rule out Colour Squadron simply because he's a maiden ffs. Had he not been hampered two out latest, then he wouldn't be a maiden anymore. He fits EVERY one of your other criteria, and yet your ruling him out simply because of a technicality. 7/1 reflects his chance, but to rule him out on that basis is crazy
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I'm not ruling him out, he can certainly win but has been put up 7lbs which is another reason
I am CHOOSING not to bet him, that is a totally different approach and certainly not silly you have your methods and I have mine, and I make consistent profit year on year using mine so I'll thank you not to call them silly ta |
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the criteria is actually :
won at least 2 chases and ideally a graded chase not 'not a maiden chaser' so even if he had won the PP he would still be dismissed, so you got that wrong too |
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Judo you're funny and really entertain me. Made me laugh already this morning. Top forumite.
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Colour Squadron won't be much shorter on the day, will he?
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I totally agree with judorick, can,t have colour squadron at all, think he has a mind of his own. not for me thank you - good analysis by the way, am rowing in with johns spirit this time with a saver on RE. Give him one more chance! g.luck all!
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Colour Squadron won't be much shorter on the day, will he?
There have been occasions in the past SOULDANCER when the field for this race has cut up quite badly. If most/all stand their ground though I'd be inclined to agree with you. |
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I think he'll be shorter than 8/1 Soul if McCoy is riding tbh. If the ground gets soft then he'll drift.
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They can't all stand their ground (safety limit!) but I hope you got my drift!
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Not very scientific but CS looks like one of these horses that sucker people in as there is always going to be an excuse, even if it's relevant, to back it again before disappointing, these horses do eventually win of course but only when everyone has long since given up on them, to this end I'll be backing it at around the 20/1 mark in the grand annual....I've got him in a long distance treble for the race along with a couple others of his type, andreas and bellvano
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Stewart Family Thank You Gold Cup
Class 1, Grade 3, £100,000 Total Prize Fund. 2.25pm, Cheltenham, Saturday, December 14, 2013. For 4yo+, 2m 5f. Penalties: after December 1, a winner of a chase 5lb (no penalty to increase a horse's weight above 11st 12lb). Entries closed November 26, entries revealed November 27 (35 entries), weights revealed December 4. Five-day confirmation stage December 9, final 48-hour declaration stage 10am, December 12. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including the racing on Monday, December 2. Form Horse Age/Wgt Owner Trainer 5/4520-1 KID CASSIDY (IRE) 7-11-12 J P McManus Nicky Henderson 3P240-0 THE GIANT BOLSTER 8-11-11 Simon Hunt David Bridgwater 2/11151- CAPTAIN CONAN (FR) 6-11-11 Triermore Stud Nicky Henderson F0211-F KATENKO (FR) 7-11-09 Andrew Brooks Venetia Williams 24251-0 CHAMPION COURT (IRE) 8-11-09 Mark Boothright Martin Keighley 301-131 TRIOLO D'ALENE (FR) 6-11-08 Mr & Mrs Sandy Orr Nicky Henderson 43112-1 ROLLING ACES (IRE) 7-11-08 Paul Barber, Ian Fogg & David Martin Paul Nicholls 4133-66 WISHFULL THINKING 10-11-08 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs F1011-5 RAJDHANI EXPRESS 6-11-07 Robert Waley-Cohen Nicky Henderson 13336P- GHIZAO (GER) 9-11-07 The Johnson & Stewart Families Paul Nicholls 444-541 NOBLE PRINCE (GER) 9-11-06 Des Sharkey Paul Nolan IRE 13114-3 UNIONISTE (FR) 5-11-04 John Hales Paul Nicholls 6/U-0426 GAUVAIN (GER) 11-11-03 The Spoofers Philip Hobbs 311PB-1 KAPGA DE CERISY (FR) 5-11-02 Andrew Brooks Venetia Williams 2110-01 CANTLOW (IRE) 8-11-00 J P McManus Paul Webber 14-P0F2 EASTER METEOR 7-11-00 Mr & Mrs S C Willes Emma Lavelle 6033-11 JOHNS SPIRIT (IRE) 6-11-00 Christopher Johnston Jonjo O'Neill 51211-3 GRANDIOSO (IRE) 6-10-13 Andrea & Graham Wylie Paul Nicholls 2/2425-2 COLOUR SQUADRON (IRE) 7-10-12 J P McManus Philip Hobbs 1522-20 TAP NIGHT (USA) 6-10-11 J P McManus Lucinda Russell 0112//01/- SALUT FLO (FR) 8-10-10 Allan Stennett David Pipe 5P513-3 HOME FARM (IRE) 6-10-09 Chris Jones Arthur Moore IRE 23100-1 SILVER ROQUE (FR) 7-10-09 Lord Vestey Fergal O'Brien 22102-3 MA FILLEULE (FR) 5-10-08 Simon Munir Nicky Henderson 5F23-04 PEPITE ROSE (FR) 6-10-06 Falcon's Line Ltd Venetia Williams 606F0-1 TATENEN (FR) 9-10-06 The Stewart Family Richard Rowe 1//4/563-4 MAIL DE BIEVRE (FR) 8-10-06 P E Atkinson Tom George 1/0P10-P BALLYNAGOUR (IRE) 7-10-06 Allan Stennett David Pipe P5114-5 MCMURROUGH (IRE) 9-10-05 Mrs D W Davenport Malcolm Jefferson 330-P24 ATTAGLANCE 7-10-03 H Young, G Eifert, R Snyder Malcolm Jefferson 103-040 NATIVE GALLERY (IRE) 8-9-13 William Tyrer Ben De Haan P0F-04 6 SOLIX (FR) 7-9-13 Paul Vogt Ian Williams 3P-6132 DOUBLE ROSS (IRE) 7-9-13 Options O Syndicate Nigel Twiston-Davies 11-030U THEATRICAL STAR 7-9-10 Brocade Racing Colin Tizzard 614-232 SEW ON TARGET (IRE) 8-9-10 A Selway Colin Tizzard 35 entries 2 Irish-trained |
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Champion Court is likely to go for the Peterborough Chase.
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Forecast for early part of next week looks decent. Likely Good to Soft ?
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Would say decent ground yup on wat ive seen
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Might be watering!
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Looking at the market I would say these are very unlikely runners, Unioniste (ran Yesterday) Captain Conan (ran yesterday) Triolo (won hennessy) Rolling Aces (ran friday over 3m) Champion Court (goes for the Peterborugh), Katenko (ran yesterday). So, unless Kid Cassidy runs off 160 I suspect Rajdhani Express will be top weight off 155.
Do horses like Cantlow and Easter Meteor run off their new marks or old? They are 8 and 5lb higher respectively from Newbury. It doesn't look like a strong renewal to me. |
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New, weights were out on the 4th so any hike b4 that will be carried here
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Sweet.
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Attaglance ew for me at 20's, he has a decent pull in the weights with Johns Spirit (9lbs) and Colour Squadron (7lbs), I can see him going off at 10s or 12s on the day.
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Radhjani Express nt entered
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Bit of a surprised that. Either he's had a set-back or they feel he is better off running in conditions/graded races off level weights.
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Noble Prince an eyecatching price for me but also entered in the Peterborough so will have to wait.
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Suspect the ground is too quick for Rajdhani Express. Taking about watering to maintain 'good'!
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Noble Prince holds an entry in the Betfred Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon on Thursday, but is likely to instead head to Prestbury Park this weekend.
Nolan said: "We've haven't totally made up our minds, but I'm 90 per cent sure he'll go to Cheltenham. Everything has gone well since Thurles, but it was difficult to know what to make of that run. The two horses he beat, Realt Dubh and Fosters Cross, haven't run well since. "It's not easy to assess where he is. I thought 9lb was a high enough rise for winning that race, he's up to 154 again now, but he seems to be coming back to himself. "We hope he's back to a reasonable standard, but that remains to be seen. You'd like to be going over with more confidence, if his last run had worked out that bit better, but it hasn't and it's not an easy call. We'll see what happens on Saturday. We're happy with the horse." |
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JOHN's SPIRIT to continue his progression - and win for the 3rd time this season
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They surely would have left him in until at least the 48hr stage if that was their line of thought FF..
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Mail De Bievre for me. Running off a fly weight. Has plenty of early speed. Gets into a nice rhythm, and get 10 lengths ahead early on. Just scrambles home to hold off Colour Squadron. That's my hope anyway
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Radjhani Express got struck into in the Paddy Power and is 'on the easy list'
Might have been nice to mention a bit sooner. |
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Thanks shockster
If he was struck into and on the easy list, why the feck was he entered? |
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thanks BJG
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R Express, looked ominous when he didn't shorten in price.
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Has it even rained since the PP ?
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Moore reported: "Home Farm is likely to run in the Stewart Family Thank You Gold Cup and David Casey will ride, all being well. I was really happy with his first run at Naas and he has been fine since then.
"We are bringing him over because it looks like an ideal race for him. He has a nice weight and it will help us determine where we are going for the rest of the season. He has only had five starts over fences so this will be super experience for him. "We used to always come to England in the old days when we had the right horses, rather than just waiting for the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals. We have won Imperial Cups, Game Spirits and Victor Chandlers but we just haven't had the horses lately." |
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Has it even rained since the PP ?
Virtually no rain here in Cheltenham since the PP and little - if any! - forecast this week. |
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It's understandable that Paddy Power 1-2 Johns Spirit and Colour Squadron are joint favourites for the race, as we've seen in the past Paddy Power form is a good guide to the December race. Walkon was 2nd in both race last season, Quantitativeasing & Poquelin had come 2nd in Paddy Power then won this race on their next start and of course Exotic Dancer won both races back to back in 2006.
As was widely accepted before the Paddy Power last month it was a below average renewal, no Grade 1 class horses lurking in there like we had last year with Al Ferof. So we can come at this race from the perspective of finding ones ahead of the handicapper. So in that respect I'm looking at two, Double Ross & Attaglance. Firstly Double Ross failed to get off the mark on his first 2 runs over fences last term, then switch back to hurdles where he won over 2m5f in a handicap hurdle at the Paddy Power meeting, followed by a good 4th in the Ladbroke over 2m, he then ran a fine race from the front to be 3rd to Salubrious in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham. The form of that run has been boosted by Salubrious since. Switching back to fences this season he beat Paddy Power 4th Attaglance at Perth by 2l and then stumbled after 5 out to lose any chance nto behind Balder Succes at Chepstow. He was well backed in first time h/c company on his latest start where he was 2nd. But the yard were is terrible form at the time having had but 1 winner from 50 runners and that weekend was again fruitless. With the yard in superb form now and with his like for this trip and track I expect a bold front running performance in this ala Little Josh in the 2010 Paddy Power. Aided by the featherweight he will likely carry of 10-5 helping make the task of keeping the run to the line up. Some expected showers at the end of the week will aid him from being outpaced at key moments. The next one of interest is Attaglance 4th in the Paddy Power last month where he was outpaced at a key moment in the race but stayed on. He won the Martin Pipe on the tougher New Course at Cheltenham which this Dec Gold Cup is run on, with a chase rating of 137 he's still 18lb below his hurdles mark so looks well in and can post an improved performance in what looks a weaker race. Of the remainder Home Farm looks a horse who could be on a favourible mark, being by Presenting you could see some big improvement on this better ground. Grandioso also looks a potential improver, Nicholls warned he'd need the run lto and in the circumstances it was a fine effort in coming 3rd. With the ditcheat yard in flying form right now he looks a big danger. Of the principles, Colour Squadron would probably have scope for most improvement if having AP in the saddle, a clearer run and strip fitter for his first outing. But one who I will likely have a few quid on is Mail De Bievre who is in off a mark of 140 on his first h/c run in England Selections Double Ross 1pt e/w 25/1 Attaglance 1pt 12/1 |
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CV, how bad was Double Ross's stumble at Chepstow? I did not see the race but there is no mention of it in the Racing Post in-running comments which is unusual if it was a bad one.
Attaglance was running from 6lb out of the weights last time out so did well to finish where he did. |
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I thought NTD has said previously that DR needs cut in the ground?
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Does anyone know if Mail de Bievre is an intended runner? Looks to have been given a chance by the handicapper.
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If Colour Squadron gets beaten it won't be due to stable form. Hobbs has had 7 winners in his last 12 runners. Stable on fire methinks.
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