**December Gold Cup**

I do like Taquin, will not be playing RSA until after the P.J Moriarty

yep, another Taquin admirer here...

Anyway, with regards to this race - I'm struggling to find a contrary view to those already expressed.

Kapga De Cerisy is a progressive 5yo but all his best form is at Sandown and his two efforts on the track do not inspire confidence.

I still think Kid Cassidy may even find some improvement when he steps up in trip and Noble Prince would have a chance if close to his best form (encouraging signs lto).

Don't expect Rolling Aces will run here? He's in at Sandown on Friday.

Weights out tomorrow.

the winner of this often (5 in last 10 years) ran in the top 5 in the Paddy Power so you won't go far wrong concentrating on those that did this year. Backed 2 of the 5

Rick, I can't believe you're being silly enough to rule out Colour Squadron simply because he's a maiden ffs. Had he not been hampered two out latest, then he wouldn't be a maiden anymore. He fits EVERY one of your other criteria, and yet your ruling him out simply because of a technicality. 7/1 reflects his chance, but to rule him out on that basis is crazy

I'm not ruling him out, he can certainly win but has been put up 7lbs which is another reason

I am CHOOSING not to bet him, that is a totally different approach and certainly not silly

you have your methods and I have mine, and I make consistent profit year on year using mine

so I'll thank you not to call them silly ta

the criteria is actually :

won at least 2 chases and ideally a graded chase


not 'not a maiden chaser'

so even if he had won the PP he would still be dismissed, so you got that wrong too

Judo you're funny and really entertain me.  Made me laugh already this morning. Top forumite.

Colour Squadron won't be much shorter on the day, will he?

I totally agree with judorick, can,t have colour squadron at all, think he has a mind of his own. not for me thank you - good analysis by the way, am rowing in with johns spirit this time with a saver on RE. Give him one more chance! g.luck all!

Colour Squadron won't be much shorter on the day, will he?

There have been occasions in the past SOULDANCER when the field for this race has cut up quite badly. If most/all stand their ground though I'd be inclined to agree with you.

I think he'll be shorter than 8/1 Soul if McCoy is riding tbh. If the ground gets soft then he'll drift.

They can't all stand their ground (safety limit!) but I hope you got my drift!

Not very scientific but CS looks like one of these horses that sucker people in as there is always going to be an excuse, even if it's relevant, to back it again before disappointing, these horses do eventually win of course but only when everyone has long since given up on them, to this end I'll be backing it at around the 20/1 mark in the grand annual....I've got him in a long distance treble for the race along with a couple others of his type, andreas and bellvano

Stewart Family Thank You Gold Cup
Class 1, Grade 3, £100,000 Total Prize Fund. 2.25pm, Cheltenham, Saturday, December 14, 2013. For 4yo+, 2m 5f. Penalties: after December 1, a winner of a chase 5lb (no penalty to increase a horse's weight above 11st 12lb). Entries closed November 26, entries revealed November 27 (35 entries), weights revealed December 4. Five-day confirmation stage December 9, final 48-hour declaration stage 10am, December 12. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including the racing on Monday, December 2.

Form  Horse    Age/Wgt Owner   Trainer
5/4520-1 KID CASSIDY (IRE) 7-11-12 J P McManus   Nicky Henderson
3P240-0 THE GIANT BOLSTER 8-11-11 Simon Hunt   David Bridgwater
2/11151- CAPTAIN CONAN (FR) 6-11-11 Triermore Stud  Nicky Henderson
F0211-F KATENKO (FR)  7-11-09 Andrew Brooks  Venetia Williams
24251-0 CHAMPION COURT (IRE) 8-11-09 Mark Boothright  Martin Keighley
301-131 TRIOLO D'ALENE (FR) 6-11-08 Mr & Mrs Sandy Orr  Nicky Henderson
43112-1 ROLLING ACES (IRE) 7-11-08   Paul Barber, Ian Fogg & David Martin Paul Nicholls
4133-66 WISHFULL THINKING 10-11-08 Diana Whateley  Philip Hobbs
F1011-5 RAJDHANI EXPRESS 6-11-07 Robert Waley-Cohen  Nicky Henderson
13336P- GHIZAO (GER)  9-11-07 The Johnson & Stewart Families Paul Nicholls
444-541 NOBLE PRINCE (GER) 9-11-06 Des Sharkey   Paul Nolan IRE
13114-3 UNIONISTE (FR)  5-11-04 John Hales   Paul Nicholls
6/U-0426 GAUVAIN (GER)  11-11-03 The Spoofers   Philip Hobbs
311PB-1 KAPGA DE CERISY (FR) 5-11-02 Andrew Brooks  Venetia Williams
2110-01 CANTLOW (IRE)  8-11-00 J P McManus   Paul Webber
14-P0F2 EASTER METEOR  7-11-00 Mr & Mrs S C Willes  Emma Lavelle
6033-11 JOHNS SPIRIT (IRE) 6-11-00 Christopher Johnston  Jonjo O'Neill
51211-3 GRANDIOSO (IRE)  6-10-13 Andrea & Graham Wylie Paul Nicholls
2/2425-2 COLOUR SQUADRON (IRE) 7-10-12 J P McManus   Philip Hobbs
1522-20 TAP NIGHT (USA)  6-10-11 J P McManus   Lucinda Russell
0112//01/- SALUT FLO (FR)  8-10-10 Allan Stennett   David Pipe
5P513-3 HOME FARM (IRE)  6-10-09 Chris Jones   Arthur Moore IRE
23100-1 SILVER ROQUE (FR) 7-10-09 Lord Vestey   Fergal O'Brien
22102-3 MA FILLEULE (FR)  5-10-08 Simon Munir   Nicky Henderson
5F23-04 PEPITE ROSE (FR)  6-10-06 Falcon's Line Ltd  Venetia Williams
606F0-1 TATENEN (FR)  9-10-06 The Stewart Family  Richard Rowe
1//4/563-4 MAIL DE BIEVRE (FR) 8-10-06 P E Atkinson   Tom George
1/0P10-P BALLYNAGOUR (IRE) 7-10-06 Allan Stennett   David Pipe
P5114-5 MCMURROUGH (IRE) 9-10-05 Mrs D W Davenport  Malcolm Jefferson
330-P24 ATTAGLANCE  7-10-03 H Young, G Eifert, R Snyder Malcolm Jefferson
103-040 NATIVE GALLERY (IRE) 8-9-13  William Tyrer   Ben De Haan
P0F-04 6 SOLIX (FR)   7-9-13  Paul Vogt   Ian Williams
3P-6132 DOUBLE ROSS (IRE) 7-9-13  Options O Syndicate       Nigel Twiston-Davies
11-030U THEATRICAL STAR  7-9-10  Brocade Racing  Colin Tizzard
614-232 SEW ON TARGET (IRE) 8-9-10  A Selway   Colin Tizzard

35 entries
2 Irish-trained

Champion Court is likely to go for the Peterborough Chase.

Forecast for early part of next week looks decent. Likely Good to Soft ?

Would say decent ground yup on wat ive seen

Might be watering!

Looking at the market I would say these are very unlikely runners, Unioniste (ran Yesterday) Captain Conan (ran yesterday) Triolo (won hennessy) Rolling Aces (ran friday over 3m) Champion Court (goes for the Peterborugh), Katenko (ran yesterday). So, unless Kid Cassidy runs off 160 I suspect Rajdhani Express will be top weight off 155.

Do horses like Cantlow and Easter Meteor run off their new marks or old? They are 8 and 5lb higher respectively from Newbury.

It doesn't look like a strong renewal to me.

New, weights were out on the 4th so any hike b4 that will be carried here

Sweet.

Attaglance ew for me at 20's, he has a decent pull in the weights with Johns Spirit (9lbs) and Colour Squadron (7lbs), I can see him going off at 10s or 12s on the day.

Radhjani Express nt entered

Bit of a surprised that. Either he's had a set-back or they feel he is better off running in conditions/graded races off level weights.

Noble Prince an eyecatching price for me but also entered in the Peterborough so will have to wait.

Suspect the ground is too quick for Rajdhani Express. Taking about watering to maintain 'good'!

Noble Prince holds an entry in the Betfred Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon on Thursday, but is likely to instead head to Prestbury Park this weekend.

Nolan said: "We've haven't totally made up our minds, but I'm 90 per cent sure he'll go to Cheltenham. Everything has gone well since Thurles, but it was difficult to know what to make of that run. The two horses he beat, Realt Dubh and Fosters Cross, haven't run well since.

"It's not easy to assess where he is. I thought 9lb was a high enough rise for winning that race, he's up to 154 again now, but he seems to be coming back to himself.

"We hope he's back to a reasonable standard, but that remains to be seen. You'd like to be going over with more confidence, if his last run had worked out that bit better, but it hasn't and it's not an easy call. We'll see what happens on Saturday. We're happy with the horse."

JOHN's SPIRIT to continue his progression - and win for the 3rd time this season

They surely would have left him in until at least the 48hr stage if that was their line of thought FF..

Mail De Bievre for me. Running off a fly weight. Has plenty of early speed. Gets into a nice rhythm, and get 10 lengths ahead early on. Just scrambles home to hold off Colour Squadron. That's my hope anyway

Radjhani Express got struck into in the Paddy Power and is 'on the easy list'


Might have been nice to mention a bit sooner.

Thanks shockster

If he was struck into and on the easy list, why the feck was he entered?

thanks BJG

R Express, looked ominous when he didn't shorten in price.

Has it even rained since the PP ?

Moore reported: "Home Farm is likely to run in the Stewart Family Thank You Gold Cup and David Casey will ride, all being well. I was really happy with his first run at Naas and he has been fine since then.

"We are bringing him over because it looks like an ideal race for him. He has a nice weight and it will help us determine where we are going for the rest of the season. He has only had five starts over fences so this will be super experience for him.

"We used to always come to England in the old days when we had the right horses, rather than just waiting for the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals. We have won Imperial Cups, Game Spirits and Victor Chandlers but we just haven't had the horses lately."

Has it even rained since the PP ?

Virtually no rain here in Cheltenham since the PP and little - if any! - forecast this week.

It's understandable that Paddy Power 1-2 Johns Spirit and Colour Squadron are joint favourites for the race, as we've seen in the past Paddy Power form is a good guide to the December race. Walkon was 2nd in both race last season, Quantitativeasing & Poquelin had come 2nd in Paddy Power then won this race on their next start and of course Exotic Dancer won both races back to back in 2006.

As was widely accepted before the Paddy Power last month it was a below average renewal, no Grade 1 class horses lurking in there like we had last year with Al Ferof. So we can come at this race from the perspective of finding ones ahead of the handicapper. So in that respect I'm looking at two, Double Ross & Attaglance.

Firstly Double Ross failed to get off the mark on his first 2 runs over fences last term, then switch back to hurdles where he won over 2m5f in a handicap hurdle at the Paddy Power meeting, followed by a good 4th in the Ladbroke over 2m, he then ran a fine race from the front to be 3rd to Salubrious in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham. The form of that run has been boosted by Salubrious since.
Switching back to fences this season he beat Paddy Power 4th Attaglance at Perth by 2l and then stumbled after 5 out to lose any chance nto behind Balder Succes at Chepstow. He was well backed in first time h/c company on his latest start where he was 2nd. But the yard were is terrible form at the time having had but 1 winner from 50 runners and that weekend was again fruitless.

With the yard in superb form now and with his like for this trip and track I expect a bold front running performance in this ala Little Josh in the 2010 Paddy Power. Aided by the featherweight he will likely carry of 10-5 helping make the task of keeping the run to the line up. Some expected showers at the end of the week will aid him from being outpaced at key moments.

The next one of interest is Attaglance 4th in the Paddy Power last month where he was outpaced at a key moment in the race but stayed on. He won the Martin Pipe on the tougher New Course at Cheltenham which this Dec Gold Cup is run on, with a chase rating of 137 he's still 18lb below his hurdles mark so looks well in and can post an improved performance in what looks a weaker race.

Of the remainder Home Farm looks a horse who could be on a favourible mark, being by Presenting you could see some big improvement on this better ground. Grandioso also looks a potential improver, Nicholls warned he'd need the run lto and in the circumstances it was a fine effort in coming 3rd. With the ditcheat yard in flying form right now he looks a big danger. Of the principles, Colour Squadron would probably have scope for most improvement if having AP in the saddle, a clearer run and strip fitter for his first outing.

But one who I will likely have a few quid on is Mail De Bievre who is in off a mark of 140 on his first h/c run in England

Selections

Double Ross 1pt e/w 25/1
Attaglance 1pt 12/1

CV, how bad was Double Ross's stumble at Chepstow? I did not see the race but there is no mention of it in the Racing Post in-running comments which is unusual if it was a bad one.

Attaglance was running from 6lb out of the weights last time out so did well to finish where he did.

I thought NTD has said previously that DR needs cut in the ground?

Does anyone know if Mail de Bievre is an intended runner? Looks to have been given a chance by the handicapper.

If Colour Squadron gets beaten it won't be due to stable form. Hobbs has had 7 winners in his last 12 runners. Stable on fire methinks.

Sint I just rewatched the Double Ross race from Chepstow, he knuckled down very slightly and it wasn't really a mistake. Sportinglife got it wrong when they said stumbled on landing. He just went toe to toe with Balder Succes trying to give him and Romford Pele 5lbs and got outpaced in the end. He just needs a stiffer test than 2m3f the extra 2f and Cheltenham hill will help him out. Plus he won't have to do all the donkey work this time with Easter Meteor and Mail De Bievre in the field. He jumps well which should help him keep his position in the field and that light weight will be an asset.

Ok thanks.

Will Easter Meteor run?,he was out again last week,i would think he must be a bit of a doubt.

CVB

Oh I think a Grade 3 Class 1 race winner is 'classy' enough !

After backing Salut Flo antepost for the paddy power and obviously losing me doe,(does this put me in the sad aftertiming thread? Or is it cos i am not trying to share and celebrate my win with it having lost constitute in it not counting) be rude not to have another little tickle on him on Saturday morning i suppose. Would be some training performance but pipes done it before and he is a horse to catch first time up after long breaks!

I'm in the same camp STS, no other Pipe runners in the field now & what else could they be keeping him for?

Home Farm out, scoped dirty.

McCoy chooses Colour Squadron. In other news, a bear took a big steamy dump in the woods.

There is some rainfall knocking about today and tomorrow in the Cheltenham area. I expect it will be softer conditions than the PP meeting.

Little bit of rain overnight sint but dry as I type. 2/3mm due this afternoon but it is also breezy and very mild. Very little in the way of rain here for the past 2 weeks.

On Salut Flo and Double Ross 12/1 and 16/1 respectfully for this, backed Weds night so 4 places antepost! Both much shorter now, could Pipe really be up to something with Salut Flo i wonder lol just need both to run now

cheers FF.

Noble Prince holds an entry in the Betfred Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon on Thursday, but is likely to instead head to Prestbury Park this weekend.

Nolan said: "We've haven't totally made up our minds, but I'm 90 per cent sure he'll go to Cheltenham. Everything has gone well since Thurles, but it was difficult to know what to make of that run. The two horses he beat, Realt Dubh and Fosters Cross, haven't run well since.

"It's not easy to assess where he is. I thought 9lb was a high enough rise for winning that race, he's up to 154 again now, but he seems to be coming back to himself.

"We hope he's back to a reasonable standard, but that remains to be seen. You'd like to be going over with more confidence, if his last run had worked out that bit better, but it hasn't and it's not an easy call. We'll see what happens on Saturday. We're happy with the horse."

No show for either Huntingdon or Cheltenham and now entered at Navan on Suinday.

Glad I kept my powder dry, another trainer whose comments should be ascribed the Timeform squiggle

It is not the first time he has done that. Sure, if you changed your mind or don't think he has a great chance worthwhile of the travel costs then fine, but don't say he is 90% to turn up and then pull out. This is what arouses cynicism.

Seems interesting that Henderson gives Ma Filleule its chase debut in Britain in this race having had the horse nearly 18 months. 3 chase wins in France, nice seasonal debut in the Listed mares race at Kempton 2 weeks ago, and Nicky's have certainly come on for the run this season & she's probably the most unexposed horse over fences in the race

Paul Nichols Grandioso should come on from the run at Newbury last time out in which he stayed on well. Was put away last season for this season and hard to know just how good he could be, I am expecting him to be getting into the 160's this season as far as Official rating is concerned, so 147 tomorrow he must win off. Attaglance if it stays good ground would be the one to back off these terms tomorrow from paddy power

Provisional trend ratings.

Missing one piece of information....could someone please list the horses who achieved a 142+ RPR last time out?

Tap Night 76%
Johns Spirit 73%
Colour Squadron 73%
Grandioso 66%
Attaglance 62%
Cantlow 60%
Ma Filleule 54%
Salut Flo 53%
Easter Meteor 51%
Double Ross 51%
Sew On Target 48%
Silver Roque 47%
Gauvain 34%

I would imagine that both John's Spirit and Colour Squadron ran 142+ last time out, so it's likely that with the final bit of info, they may usurp Tap Night at the head of the rankings.

Just saw Tap Night available at 40s here, so would be rude not to have an interest as he scores highly on the trends.

This is wide open IMO but I think that Cantlow is probably a bit too big which has as much to do with mccoy being on the other one as anything else, considering it has finally all clicked for him now in a race I'd take a chance that he could defy the weight rise.

Dec 13, 2013 -- 11:55AM, SEATHESTARS....NO1 wrote:

On Salut Flo and Double Ross 12/1 and 16/1 respectfully for this, backed Weds night so 4 places antepost! Both much shorter now, could Pipe really be up to something with Salut Flo i wonder lol just need both to run now

I fancy Double Ross, but can't have Salut Flo with the form of the Pipe stable.

Lost out antepost, back to normal
John's Spirit 6-1 for me.
Still improving, 9lb rise makes it a close call, but he's tough, gives everything. Jumps low, tends to clip a few, if he doesn't clout one he should be there at the finish.

I've backed John's Spirit on his two wins this season and won't be jumping ship. I think he hit the front far too soon the last day, 9lb doesn't make it easy but he is improving.

Missing one piece of information....could someone please list the horses who achieved a 142+ RPR last time out?

Attaglance for me. Screaming at me. 18lbs better off against his best hurdling OR and 11lbs and 9lbs better off against Johns Spirit and Colour Squadron from the PaddyPower Gold Cup for a 5-6 length beating. Previous Cheltenham New Course winner. Relishes Good going and the dryer the better. Hoping he is going to pay for Christmas ! Good luck to you all.

If your on about the rpr which is on the card which sits to the right of 'TS', then all of them lol.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=590856&r_date=2013-12-14#raceTabs=sc_

If its not and you dont want to buy a rp, just got to your local shop lol, dont think anyone pays for members club anymore its a con, i have once, then gave it up as can read post everyday for free if i can be bothered to go out lol

The one on the card on the website is their adjusted one, and not what they ran LTO unfortunately.

Sticking with Johns Spirit again 2day for a few ££ ew.
In memory of a great racing friend JCA.
Thought he won with a little bit in hand last time.

came to a similar conclusion as CV Byrne above albeit belatedly so main bet Double Ross ew at 11/1 with a saver on Attaglance.


Watching the Paddy Power back, Attaglance ran an unusual race - on the pace early, before getting shuffled back, almost at a standstill veering left to jump the last before motoring up the hill.

Might benefit from a more conservative ride and the extra half a furlong on the stiffer New Course.

Tricky contest as you'd expect, some sort of case can be made for most of them.

Your right tricky contest. Tempted by Double Ross myself but don't think its soft enough for him. Attaglance is also interesting at the weights but not convinced with his jumping yet.

I've opted for Ma filleule ew, a bit of an unknown over fences, not sure what to expect, but Hendo wouldn't run him I don't think if he didn't think he had a shout.

*didn't have a shout.

wd winners

excellent call cvb

wd winners

DOUBLE ROSS

Excellent call CVB

Absolutely fantastic.

Been a rough week with a lot of horses coming 2nd and that has erased it all and then some.

Well done other Double Ross backers.

WD winners

and thanks all, it's what racing is about these big Saturday races.

well done Double Ross backers. 4 or 5 on this thread

Colour Sqd looked to be going nicely in behind but didn't find all that much in the end. Still has a big race in him some day though. Handicap mark should remain the same.

well touted on here with great reasoning. well done all winners

I'll be backing colour squadron for something like the grand annual at double figure prices when we've all given up on him and we're left thinking not that bloody thing....bellvano and andreas..esque

Well done CVB - and other winners.

Well done winners. I had a small interest on Cantlow as well as a long term ante post Attaglance who was very disappointing. I have been a big Double Ross fan but didn't think his form over fences was as good as hurdles until yesterday. It now seems like a very well executed plot and he will win again. Meanwhile I still can't have anything to do with Colour Squadron. Despite the stable form being very good, he came up short again when well backed and I just don't think he is up to much.

I stole a few quid on Double Ross but nothing compared to what I could have won if he had ran in the PP.

Sage,
I backed Colour Squadron in the PP and didnt deal he was unlucky to be honest. So the 7lb hike made him a badly handicapped horse to me

brandy, "unlucky" horses that get beaten as many times as this one are a layers dream. His only wins are a bumper and an early novice hurdle. Since 2011 he has been second 6 times, 3 times as favourite, so his rating creeps up making it even harder for him to win. One day he may get lucky if the opposition fail to fire but I would be a layer every time. I just don't think he will face the Cheltenham hill against good horses. Look at what Cantlow did after a bad mistake took him right out of contention-he fought all the way.

only just read this fred ,excellent call c.v . wish I had read it earlier was on at 10s on the day ,25s would have been a lot better !well done !

He turned the form around with John's Spirit by 9 lengths. For me that says he would have certainly won the PP but for the interference.

said before, cs will only win when everyone has finally given up on him, he's one of those!!

Cheers Foyles, I was very happy with Double Ross pick, I’d backed him on his previous run which was his first in h/c company but that was over 2m3f at Ascot where he had to do all the donkey work up front. But he was very well backed that day clearly pointing to connections believing he was a well handicapped horse. I like to take note of well backed horses lto that didn’t win. Rawnaq in the Greatwood was a similar bet, he’d been well backed at Galway in summer.

Back to Double Ross he’s one who would improve for a step up in trip (he was idling at the end of the race) and I think he’ll improve again when upped to 3m. given he likes softer ground he’ll probably go for the 3m h/c chase on the Tuesday at Cheltenham or maybe a h/c chase on soft ground in between. Like the 2m5f at the Trials meeting in Jan.


On the Colour Squadron / Johns Spirit point, think the placing being reversed showed how unucky Colour Squadron was in Paddy Power. Also the horses ahead of them had not run in the Paddy Power either. Cantlow is a 3 miler for sure, I'd expect him to stick with 2m5f though before stepping up to 3m at the festival.

25s cv I bet you was happy ,gives you plenty of Cheltenham festival ante post ammo ,invest it wisely ! and good luck !

Well done & thanks CV!
I'm also interested in Ruacana this Saturday, granted testing ground.

That's the 2nd big Saturday handicap win I've had this season and it's got me focussed on the big handicaps like never before. I'm still learning a massive amount at this game. Only this season have I been able to shift to nearly all win only bets unless odds are 20/1 or above and a general distaste for backing short priced horses away from Graded races. Forced to consider the value of the bet etc.. Hopefully there's another few big h/c wins ahead this season. I have to say I love them now.


But tbh I'm not cut out for forums - as pretty much every regular poster on here will know - I end up acting like a 5 star c*nt too much, for some reason I think every thread should be a hardened debate where you need to get everyone to come around to your opinion of something. So I am trying to channel my efforts and time into actual form reading and putting it all up on my site every bet and opinion for all to see. Better being judged by that than acting like a c*nt and "winning" an argument.

For several winter's I've respected your opinions CVB, but often thought your knowledge of value not the best!
GL

We have all done it CV. Get embroiled in debates that end nasty. In the end you just have to accept all opinions as the result will prove it one way or tother. Great game this, great game.

^
Well said sintonian!

Over on football forums sint it's outright war, I'd only ever experienced years of Villatalk prior to this place. So when fellow fans of the same team have opinions on players and managers etc there is no race at the end of it to settle the debate.


I have a huge passion for this sport and somehow it gets warped into arguments and repetitive points being made which at the end of the day are a pointless waste of time. I can say that I'll not get into them again but tbh that's just speculation. I'll try not comment on others opinions and just stick with discussions generated by my own, maybe that'll work

The football forum is the bigger internet sh1thole on the web. Just a crazy place.

Totally agree, gave it up years ago now. The carnage of Martin O'Neill leaving was just unbelievable. People took sides and took the gloves off