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Graham55
11 Nov 13 21:06
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Date Joined: 24 Feb 05
| Topic/replies: 26,376 | Blogger: Graham55's blog
Haven't seen a thread up as yet so thought I'd start one, best odds currently below:

Bobs Worth (2), Silviniaco Conti (11/4)in, Dynaste (7), Cue Card (10), Tidal Bay (10), Long Run (12), First Lieutenant (14), The Giant Bolster (16), Roi Du Mee (20), Harry Topper (25), Imperial Commander (25), Prince De Beauchene (25), Cape Tribulation (33), Cloudy Too (33), Wayward Prince (40), Mr Moonshine (100)

Can't help but think this race will cut up, if Dynaste runs Saturday that comes out, Long Run a doubt along with First Lieutenant.

Tidal Bay also unconfirmed.

Anyway, it's between the top two for me unoriginal I know but I think the 11/4 about Silviniaco is a monster price. Won this last year, Nicholls has confirmed this is its target. Track is ideal as are the wheelie jumps. Bob's Worth obviosuly the main danger but I think Silviniaco takes this and takes it well.

Any other musings?
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Report Angel Gabrial November 21, 2013 7:04 PM GMT
I don`t fancy Cue Card as a thorough 3 miler but you never know. I would however like to see him allowed to stretch out up with the lead otherwise he will be frustrated whilst restrained. He is not a hold up type i am convinced,they just need to bite the bullet he needs to get into rhythm to preserve his energy and allowed to enjoy himself.
Report duffy November 21, 2013 8:43 PM GMT
Agree with the negatives about CC in behind too, he needs to get into a rhythm out in front otherwise the jumping will suffer, either way he's going to have nowhere to hide on Saturday, but it's the very best thing for the horse because after Saturday, he's either going to be a very viable KG horse or perhaps might not even have to run in a 3 mile race again, with the quality there is in the race along with the way the race will be run, it's pretty clear that we will get a definitive answer with regards to CC and his suitability to 3 miles .
Report ReaseHeath November 21, 2013 9:15 PM GMT
yep, we might also learn whether Dynaste and Conti can be the 'real deal', if Tidal Bay can be a realistic Gold Cup contender at age of 13, and whether Long Run is regressing or if Wetherby was an aberration.

We also might not get definitive answers to any of those questions (agree we should get definitive answer to the Cue Card one, barring accidents)  - that's what makes it such a fascinating race.
Report brandyontherocks November 21, 2013 9:20 PM GMT
Really can not get my head round people thinking Bibs Worth is not quick enough.

Watch the Gold Cup again.

Coming to the third last Bob is 6+ lengths behind the leaders. This was down to his jumping. He is a good jumper but he isn't electric. Always losing 1/2 length per fence. Then Silviano falls in front of him. He loses another 2 lengths.
Long Run and Sir Des Champs quicken to the 2nd last and within no time Bobs Worth is on their heels.

He has enough pace to cope with these.

If Cue Card does stay he is the only danger I can see to Bob.
Report thornton reed November 21, 2013 9:56 PM GMT
I backed Cue Card antepost at 10s thinking the race would cut up a bit. If he stays he has to go close, but its a very big if.

Tempted to lay off now. Looks a absolute cracker and I'm gutted I'm not there to see it.
Report FatoteSport November 22, 2013 12:08 AM GMT
Bob's Worth is a tiny horse. I estimate 84% the size of the national hunt average, which is why he loses ground every jump.
Report Colldogg November 22, 2013 12:41 AM GMT
This is a VERY hard race to call. Almost a no bet race for me but will have to have a little dabble in this race of such quality. I think other people have summed it up well by saying i've not been this excited for a staying race since Denman and Kauto Star were in their pomp.

Bob's Worth - Obvious place to start and clear fav. He proved all the doubters wrong last season. His performance in the Hennessey and Gold Cup were brilliant and he was the deserved champion. Is he unbeatable though? He doesn't seem like he is bombproof like Kauto Star was for a large part of his career so I can see why people are looking for other options.

Cue Card - I love the horse. He's a true star and one of the best in training and really likable. I'd love to see him win this on Saturday. Head over heart though I don't think he can do it. He blunders and fences and has his own way of jumping some. This will be exposed more over 3 miles and 1 jumping error against a field of this quality and it could be curtains.

Dynaste - Good horse but not THAT good. I think he will be found out in this company. He will gain a lot of experience from a race like this and he is one for the future and may improve. Strictly for Saturday though I can't see him being in the first 3.

Long Run - Wetherby aside, 12/1 is a bit of a insult price for this horse. He's easily the clear value call from a ew perspective. Will probably run a good race again without being good enough. Got a great place chance though if Wetherby has not left it's mark.

Roi Du Mee - Not good enough for this field.

Silviniaco Conti - Filled in the substantial hole left at the Nicholls yard to an extent and performed really well last season. I backed him for the Gold Cup and watching it first time I thought he had been so unlucky and would have won the race had he not fallen. Having watched it back again and again though I'm not so sure. Would he have been able to hold off Bob's Worth and Sir Des Champs up the hill? Maybe not. His run at Aintree while forgivable at the end of a long season (Somewhere Denman flopped at before too) but still it did not make him stand out as elite. Whether people think Fehily is better than Jacob, you surely have to think that in a race so big Nicholls would put his number 1 jockey on board if he thought it had a big chance of winning no matter how he dresses it up to the press?

The Giant Bolster - Love the nutty fella but he's out of his depth in this class away from Cheltenham.

Tidal Bay - The old rogue certainly still has it but winning a betfair chase at the age of 12 against this sustained quality just won't happen. He's a star and a great servant of the national hunt game. He won't be good enough though in this race. Might run on to a place if he's lucky.

Verdict is that Bob's Worth will be VERY hard to beat and instead of looking for value elsewhere in such a good field, it may pay just to go with the obvious choice. Cue Card is interesting but jumping and stamina issues will probably let him down. Long Run also has his jumping problems, but they normally still allow him to at least get a place.

I'm going to go for Bob's Worth and have a small ew saver on Long Run at the prices. Long Run could almost be a free bet to nothing.
Report Angel Gabrial November 22, 2013 12:47 AM GMT
Bob`s Worth fiddles a few but i think that shows that he quite clever at his fences and it does not seem to bother him. Not the biggest but no doubt the gutsiest high ranking chaser on offer, he finds more at the end of his races than other horses and that is worth a few hands.
Report buddeliea November 22, 2013 7:50 AM GMT
Colldogg,

Which part of Tidal Bays recent chase form tells you he will be lucky to place,and wont be good enough........Good luck with that!!
Or are  you just thinking hes too old??
Report Colldogg November 22, 2013 11:39 AM GMT
I just feel their are 3 better horses than him in the field. On top of the 3, their are also younger horses who could be better than him and have the chance to show it on Saturday. Of course his age doesn't help him either as he is nigh on approaching 13 and how many 13 year olds have been placed in Grade 1's recently?

I can just see it going the same way as the Lexus getting outpaced and one of the first off the bridle. It was a brilliant performance to win but 3 big factors are different. 1) The quality of horses in this years Betfair are higher than the Lexus. 2) He's another year older. 3) He has no Ruby Walsh on board him on Saturday.
Report buddeliea November 22, 2013 12:03 PM GMT
well maybe age will catch up,but on all known form from last season their aint 3 better 3m 1f horses in the race,only 1 by my reckoning.
He beat Sir Des Champs in the Lexus,you think their are 3 better horses over 3m 1f than the Gold Cup runner up??
Form Evidence says that aint right.

I have no problem you having opinions of course,but to say he wont be good enough is a bit harsh imo, especially when you look at the formbook.
Report Big Bucks John November 22, 2013 12:34 PM GMT
Long Run and Tidal Bay are the value bets for me.

Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti will in my opinion contest the Gold Cup in March, this is there first run of the season though so will be opposing them both.

Dynaste is too short on what he has achieved so far and this is his first run of the season.

Long Run - Never been out of the frame bar his last race which was his first run of the season. Unlikely to be good enough for the Gold Cup but this could be his Gold Cup. He finished 2 and a half lengthsw behind SC last year in this race but that was his first run of the season and SC was coming into the race with a run already under his belt.

Roi Du Mee - Not good enough for this field.

The Giant Bolster - Again not good enough and his first run.

Tidal Bay - Certainly not an old rogue anymore so consistent and will love the soft going. No holes in his form, the biggest question mark will be with his age and can he still compete with the top dogs, he has up until now so no reason to oppose yet on that basis.
Report sintonian November 22, 2013 1:27 PM GMT
If Silviniaco does not win tomorrow i'd wonder if he is being trained for the King George.
Report buddeliea November 22, 2013 1:30 PM GMT
that's a weird one sint,last season Kempton he said would not suit the horse...so whats changed??
Report sintonian November 22, 2013 1:52 PM GMT
Not sure why they've changed their minds tbh Budde.

The fences tomorrow have had 1.5 inches added to them. Going to need to jump impeccably all the way.
Report sisyphus November 22, 2013 3:01 PM GMT
Sint, Budd

£5,000 for fifth place, get payed for schooling in public
Report FOYLESWAR November 22, 2013 8:13 PM GMT
also gone for long run win and place at 15 or better on here ,1st poor run in around 3 years in charlie hall and scoped badly post race plus the mistake didnt help ,no stamina doubts a gold cup winner and 2 king georges and always seems to be better for his  his 1st run lof season ,looks decent value to me !
Report duffy November 22, 2013 11:11 PM GMT
Dynaste for me, I know he needs to improve, but by default so does every novice from the year before racing against the big boys for the first time, we eventually saw that 3 miles was his trip and I can just see him stalking travelling easily and picking it up against some very decent horses.
Report bigben the horseman November 22, 2013 11:36 PM GMT
This is my take on the horses:

Bobs Worth - Always underestimated because he's a smaller than the average chaser and can make the game look hard work. However his attitude and engine are     unquestionable and his record left handed is unquestionable. He's the perfect example of how you want a racehorse and not a show horse. He'll be very hard to beat. My main play in the race. Ill be trying to get slightly bigger odds in play as he'll be making things look hard work during the first circuit whilst others wont.

Cue Card - For me a horse that needs good ground to be at his best and needs to be allowed to bowl along to jump at his best. If they hold him up tomoro I think the horse will make jumping errors and ruin his chance of being involved in the finish. If they let Cue Card bowl along I believe he wont quite stay. I dont think this is his race and the horse could be at ascot in a more suitable race. Also has been beaten by Bobs Worth over 2m4f and I dont see him reversing that form over 3m1f.

Dynaste - Clearly talented but from a form point of view I dont think he is going to be good enough. He's an eye catching traveller and will look to be going well for a long way. However up the home straight I think he will toil. I dont think the Aintree win proves he has the stamina for this his connections will also have one eye on the King George whereas other connections have no King George plans to worry about.

Long Run - I will forgive him his last run and he's record of making the frame is admirable. He'll strip fitter here as he needs the run first time imo. However has finished 2nd in this race the last 2 seasons and I think this is the toughest renewal he'll have faced yet. If your a fan get your money on in thr place market as I dont think he can quite win this.

Roi Du Mee - Needs a career best here and by some way. Sizing Europe has never stayed 3 miles and First Lieutenant ran to bad to be true last time and until proven otherwise I think he's flattered with that victory. He is the wild card here tho imo and if he runs a monster race we will be scratching our heads thinking what a price that was with a convincing victory of Sizing Europe and First Lieutenant last time out.

Silviniaco Conti - Has a huge chance based on the formbook alone. I will forgive him his below par run at Aintree last time as many a horse has ran below form there after being prepared for the Gold Cup. Last years winner of this. Will love the ground and has the class and stamina. Gun to my head though I dont think he'd have beat Bobs Worth in the Gold Cup. If Bobs Worth is beat this is 1 of 2 horses I think have some sort of chance of doing it.

The Giant Bolster - If its not at Cheltenham consider it a day out with this lad. Cant fancyhim at all.

Tidal Bay - If this horse was 10 years old and not 12 years he be half the price because the form book is outstanding over the last 5 runs since nicholls sweetened  him up. He hasnt been running like a horse rising 13 and therefore deserves maximum respect until he looks that way. He's form with Bobs Worth in the Hennessy coupled with his G1 win in Ireland beating the Gold Cup 2nd Sir Des Champs gives this lad the 2nd best form in this race imo. I wont be backing him to win but will be making sure I dont lose if Tidal Bay wins and will be placing a cover bet to cover my other 2 stakes.


Summary:

I'll be placing £100 Bobs Worth in running hoping and expecting to get 3/1.
I'll put £20 on Tidal Bay at around 10/1.

Good luck to all
Report JOCI Club November 22, 2013 11:52 PM GMT
Maybe we can over-analyse these early season races, and it might come down to something simple like who has their horses in better nick on the day.

Bobs Worth always seems to turn up relatively fit for his season pipe-opener, and if this is going to be his only run til January, then maybe he'll be plenty fit enough.

Silviniaco Conti did well in this last year, but will he be fully wound up, if he's going for the King George? Don't know.

Dynaste is interesting. If it wasn't for his Cheltenham Festival run, I'd be quite keen on him. He showed he was better than that over a trip at Aintree. Pipe may have him cherry ripe, and that could be the difference.

Hard race to weigh up, and no bet, but I fancy either Bobs Worth or Dynaste.
Report ReaseHeath November 22, 2013 11:59 PM GMT
Tizzard stable form still not great , nor Bridgwater as it happens.
Report shockster November 23, 2013 10:51 AM GMT
Bobsworth 11/4 Betfred and money back if he falls upto £25.  not sure how long price will last.
Report FOYLESWAR November 23, 2013 10:54 AM GMT
have also backed dynaste win ,no harm in having 2 cracks at the cherry !
Report A_T November 23, 2013 10:56 AM GMT
Field of top class plodders - hard to know which will be nearest it's peak. I'll go for Silvi
Report mac99 November 23, 2013 11:44 AM GMT
Cue Card  would  nearly match  Sprinter Sacre in public esteem if he can win today  over  25 f  , he beat  Flight lieutenant   over 21f  at Cheltenham  last year   and was  not noticeably stopping at the end , hope he can do it ,but he is  up against it  gl
Report Big_Issue November 23, 2013 11:46 AM GMT
It slightly grates with me that anybody (punters/trainers/owners) could see this race as a stepping stone to future events such as the Gold Cup. The National Hunt Year isn't just the Cheltenham Festival countdown and these races should get, like today, the quality field that it has attracted, as surely a Grade 1 Chase worth 100K+ stands alone and rightly so. Looking forward to what should be a cracking race.
Report Graeme83 November 23, 2013 2:54 PM GMT
BW
Report judorick November 23, 2013 3:16 PM GMT
so happy GrinGrin

can't wait for Makybe Diva to get home from work

fantastic
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 23, 2013 3:20 PM GMT
Your faith has been rewarded judo, well done Cool
Report Mr Mischief November 23, 2013 3:25 PM GMT

Nov 23, 2013 -- 9:16AM, judorick wrote:


so happy can't wait for Makybe Diva to get home from workfantastic


This horse is now in the realms of greatness but of course you always knew this, well done

Report Irish_Celtic November 23, 2013 3:26 PM GMT
Well done Judo, you knew . Few red faces looking in .Blush
Report JOCI Club November 23, 2013 3:28 PM GMT
Excellent performance.
Report A_T November 23, 2013 3:34 PM GMT
Well done anyone who backed the winner - I thought it had no chance of staying. As for Henderson's they will no doubt be be very different beasts come March - something that gives me no pleasure to say.
Report brandyontherocks November 23, 2013 3:39 PM GMT
Great performance from Cue Card. Well done Tizzards.
Report Brooksielad November 23, 2013 3:43 PM GMT
great performance by cue card today, obviously fit enough today and had his way from the front but he deffo stays and surely will go close in the King George.

I was very pleased with Silviniaco Conti jumped well, was slightly annoyed Noel took him the long way round as he lost lots of ground when he could of just sat in behind and preserved more energy, he'll be much fitter for that and I'm really looking forward to watching him take on Cue Card again on boxing day.

Dynaste surprised me I didn't really rate the horse thought he was a little hyped but he showed he can mix it with the big boys.

Gonna be an exciting season in the staying chasing department :)
Report Angel Gabrial November 23, 2013 3:44 PM GMT
He had plenty left in the tank and letting him get into a rhythm was good to see.

Does he prefer it left handed though?
Report brandyontherocks November 23, 2013 3:48 PM GMT
He has won at Exeter and Ascot so right doesn't seem a problem.

Looking forward to the George now with Cue Card, Al Ferof and Dynaste
Report JOCI Club November 23, 2013 3:53 PM GMT
Hope that's not the last we'll see of Bobs Worth before the Gold Cup.
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 23, 2013 3:54 PM GMT
henderson mentioned that he may go for the lexus
Report JOCI Club November 23, 2013 3:54 PM GMT
So how good does that make Sprinter Sacre now?
Report Tucho November 23, 2013 3:54 PM GMT
Lexus Hendo sort of said.
Report Angel Gabrial November 23, 2013 3:59 PM GMT
He just seems more consistent going left handed.

Captain Chris was odds on in my book before the blunder.
He was so well in at Exeter but yes was impressive. His rhythm just seems more in tune consistently left handed.
Report JOCI Club November 23, 2013 4:07 PM GMT
All credit to Tizzard. Beaten unexpectedly at Exeter, then still has the gonads to take on the big boys over an unproven trip, so deserved success in my book.
Report Masterminded November 23, 2013 4:25 PM GMT
Well done anyone that picked him. Despite backing BW I was so happy to see Cue Card win under what was an excellent ride from Joe Tizzard. How easy would it have been to see him held up to get the trip? But no he was bold from the start and an outstanding performance. Credit also must go to Colin because it was bold to go for this race when there were other easier options after his defeat lto. Great race and a great result.

Bob's Worth despite the track ran really poorly I thought. Hope he bounces back but it's easy to forget what these stamina sapping races like Hennessey's and Gold Cup's take out of horses. Just proves what a magnificent animal Kauto Star was.
Report sintonian November 23, 2013 4:54 PM GMT
well done Judo.

Brooksie, is Silvio definitely going for the King George? I thought it was quite noticeable how weak he was in the betting. Ante-post he was 5/2, some 11/4, but today he touched 4/1 on track, 7/2 SP. If betting is any guide then maybe he needed the run?
Report Autocue November 23, 2013 4:59 PM GMT
Hopefully that's  silenced the Bobs Worth has pace brigade. As Henderson said, the pace horses got away from him. Well done Cue Card backers.
Report judorick November 23, 2013 5:06 PM GMT
judorick 16 Nov 13 23:47 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 19,686 | Blogger: judorick's blog
right so...(hunting for value):

been trying to put a line on the match up between Dynaste and Cue Card using Module

now it has to be noted that both Module and Cue Card were racing over a trip short of their best and were making seasonal debut which makes comparison with the Jewson difficult

Dynaste beat Module a length and a neck at levels

Module beat Cue Card 6 lengths in receipt of 20lbs

How far would Module have beaten Dynaste getting 20lbs? A lot more than 6 lengths I reckon

The reason I'm saying all this is because the going is unlikely to be soft enough for Tidal Bay so he may not run and both the Nicholls and Henderson horses are appearing to need a run

so if TB, BW and SC are not to win the race (just for arguments sake) then the only realistic contenders that are likely to run are Cue Card and Dynaste who are 9ish and 8ish on here

If TB and the rags don't run then surely both will be much shorter on the day? I'm going to wait til nearer the race to be more certain of the going but I'm pretty sure I want to be on both big time

but back to my original argument, surely CC must be a long way ahead of Dynaste at levels? And he has had a run, which was apparently much needed, and Dynaste has not...

can you see what I'm getting at (decent going permitting)?


Wink
Report sintonian November 23, 2013 5:10 PM GMT
yep Bobs Worth is pure stamina. I thought he had a little bit of speed but definitely not. That said, it was still a little disappointing the margin of defeat.
Report Brooksielad November 23, 2013 5:10 PM GMT
well the king George would fit in nicely for Conti and I really hope noel keeps the ride. I still think that would be the plan, he has the pace and he was jumping right handed slightly today which would make me think it could help him if giving him the inside rail in the King George.Conti will be much fitter and you'd see an improved animal. He gave so much ground up today going wide all the way around and it told. He'll be much closer come December 26th. Can't wait :)
Report sintonian November 23, 2013 5:12 PM GMT
actually very disappointing, 40 lengths.
Report sintonian November 23, 2013 5:13 PM GMT
PFN has indicated SC will go there but not seen his post-race comments..
Report call it a day November 23, 2013 5:25 PM GMT
Cue Card now has 3 victories over Conti; cannot see him ever beating the Tizzard  horse. Cue Card has also mashed up Al Ferof ,who didn't impress that much today. Tidal looks gone, so to my eye Nicholls horses are going to be getting a good look at Cue Card's backside for the rest of the season.
Report sintonian November 23, 2013 5:30 PM GMT
Quite possibly. There were 5 3/4 lengths between then today. That distance is not insurmountable if Silvio needed the race.
Report sintonian November 23, 2013 5:30 PM GMT
* them
Report judorick November 23, 2013 5:32 PM GMT
JT never once went for his whip, and the KG is a shorter trip

would expect CC to confirm the form with SC but Dynaste might come on massively
Report sageform November 23, 2013 5:41 PM GMT
To answer the question about Sprinter Sacre, we all know that over 2 miles he is stones in front of anything but I would love to see him take on Cue Card in a Ryanair-not that either of them will run in it now.
Report sintonian November 23, 2013 5:45 PM GMT
Beat him 9 lengths in the Melling Chase, Sage. Think he was eased down that day too.
Report judorick November 23, 2013 6:09 PM GMT
4 and a half lengths Melling, 7 lengths Arkle and Cue Card was also eased when beaten. I have SS 8 to 10lb better at 2.5 miles
Report Angel Gabrial November 23, 2013 6:24 PM GMT
Strangely enough i find myself liking Cue Cards Gold Cup chances as value against his King George chances, not something i would have believed pre race today.

He is all about rhythm and jumping. He jumped stickily in the KG last year and at Exeter on his seasonal debut in the Haldon so even though he has won right handed i still have a slight doubts over his jumping/rhythm at Kemptom. Dynaste will be more suited to that race imo.
Report JOCI Club November 23, 2013 6:25 PM GMT
'Comfortably', and 'very easily' were the terms used to describe Sprinter Sacre's victories over Cue Card though, so the winning margins probably don't tell the full story.
Report Angel Gabrial November 23, 2013 6:29 PM GMT
Sacre was actually blowing quite hard after the Melling at Aintree lead NH and BG to suggest that`s as far as he wants to go, so i am not sure as to how much more BG could have got out of the horse if he had really got after him.
Report Brooksielad November 23, 2013 6:47 PM GMT
Dynaste was quite clearly 110% for today. Typical Pipe lets absolutely kill him on the gallops to try and take an early pot. Can't see Dynaste improving much more. Cue Card had his own way upfront, the King George will be a very diff story. I'd say Cue Card saved about 6/7 lengths on Silviniaco Conti as Conti raced really wide throughout the whole race which I thought was very strange, perhaps they was worried about him falling like he did in the gold cup when he was covered up...

I'd be slightly worried about Hendo's horses at the moment, hope MTOY is on song for next weekend.
Report judorick November 23, 2013 7:27 PM GMT
amazing the conclusions people draw ^^

1. You have no evidence Pipe did any such thing
2. Dynaste improved bundles from the Jewson to Aintree and could easily improve as much again
3. Many horses improve plenty after their FIRST run outside novice company
4. Cue Card went a strong gallop and most could not lay up with him. Roi Du Mee tried to take him on and fell apart eventually PU
5. Don't think SC will be going to Kempton, PFN has Al Ferof earmarked for that

Frankly, Cue Card gagged up on the bridle without any use of the whip so he is going to be hard to beat in any race. Dynaste is a massive threat at Kempton and might reverse the placings
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 23, 2013 7:35 PM GMT
Flat track today, cheltenham hits the stamina reserves more than any grade 1 track.

Not saying he wont stay in the gold cup.
Report ReaseHeath November 23, 2013 7:53 PM GMT
well done, judo - no bet for me today but could not be much more thrilled if I'd backed him.

Been there for all four of his festival appearances and was there when he won his first novice hurdle at Aintree.

There's just something about his free spirited way of going when they let him do what he did today - I reckon there's plenty in the tank and suspect he might have been idling a little up the straight (definitely listening to the crowd).

It would be almost the ultimate training performance to turn the 2010 Champion Bumper winner into the 2014 Gold Cup winner but it's possible now (still won't be easy).

Loved the race, the purity of spirit that means even the horses who are n't quite what they were try their hearts out.

Love the understated approach of the Tizzards too - they've campaigned the horse positively in general and that has enabled them to tap his potential to the full, would have been so easy to get the hump after Exeter and turn up at Ascot today. (thought they might do that myself).

I wonder if PFN has thought about the Welsh National for Tidal Bay? Would be worth a shot I think.
Report brandyontherocks November 23, 2013 8:21 PM GMT
Nicholls said after the Betfair that he thought the George was between Cue Card and Al Ferof. Doesn't shout confidence about Silviano.  Maybe he wont be running??

Bobs Worth was bitterly disappointing. I hope that isn't the end of him.
Report Angel Gabrial November 23, 2013 8:28 PM GMT
I think Bob`s Worth was taking deep breaths at every fence today, not his course the way he jumps. He will be back, he is as tough as old boots.

Paul Nicholls talking out of of his corn hole btw., making the KG into a 2 horse race.
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 23, 2013 8:35 PM GMT
Totally agree, BW could be slow in the GC as he beat the worse field in living memory last season. & im a fan.
Report aft November 23, 2013 8:49 PM GMT
Dynaste has as much chance of reversing placings in the KG as I have of becoming pope!
Report judorick November 23, 2013 10:04 PM GMT
boy wonder 07 18 Nov 13 17:38 Joined: 18 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 467 | Blogger: boy wonder 07's blog
cue card will never win at 3 miles he must be a monster place lay if they all line up

good shout Laugh
Report Steamship November 23, 2013 10:22 PM GMT
Well done judorick with that earlier in the month. Great performance by the Tizzards and Cue Card good to see a big pot not going to one of the big 3. You would think that Kempton on Boxing day would be perfect for him, the only concern would be last years running, I would have to watch that race again. I think Nicholls is right about it almost being a 2 horse race as accidents apart I over 3 miles could anything that has been beaten by Cue Card today beat him in the KG.

What a race that Supreme was
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 23, 2013 10:56 PM GMT
The description given to Cue Cards running in last years King George chs says:

Blundered 1st and mistake 2nd, soon tracking leaders

and the last bit says:

finished tired btn 20 lengths

I rather blindly took it in that he blatantly did not get the trip in that race. I did not back him at Cheltenham on the back of that and did not back him today on the back that i thought the same and possibly (even though he wasn't stopping in the ryanair) stupidly thought that 2miles 5f round cheltenham would be approx as far as he would like to go.

However

I now can see that his undoing in the KG last year was in fact most likely down to the state of the ground together with them first two mistakes after all did he not almost uproot that first fenceConfused I do not think there is anything anywhere in his form that says he does not like going right handed. Yes he has campaigned mostly on left handed tracks but as the above poster has pointed out he has won at Ascot beating Captain Chris easily by 6 lengths and it is just a coincidence and probably more to do with the races and where they are at that he has raced mostly on left handed courses than right.

Will certainly take a very good un to beat him in this years renewal of the King George, i for one at 3/1 is a backer. Lets just hope that 3/1 - 5/2 lasts as i can only count maybe 4 opponents out of a poss 12 starters for this years race (guessing on the 12), the top 5 on here make up to only 75% and the books already are very close to betfair prices.

I wouldn't put anyone off backing

Dynaste

Al ferof

but i really cannot see past Cue Card now!!!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 23, 2013 11:20 PM GMT
And, can we maybe make a case for Bobs worth and the National or is that pie in the skyConfused
Report gnashersblackpool November 24, 2013 2:18 AM GMT
enjoy the pie.
Report spothediference November 24, 2013 2:20 AM GMT
great shout judo hats off mate//
Report boy wonder 07 November 24, 2013 10:06 AM GMT
lol well done judorick cost me a good few quid I was there yesterday and thought every horse bar the giant bolster looked magnificent in themselves I bet dynaste as early as may for the king George as I definitely never had cue card as a top class 3 miler he was magnificent yesterday. the positives I can take for dynaste is rembering how well he jumped and travelled in heavy ground last year at Kempton also cue card got in tight to a couple yesterday and even though haydock had made their fences stiffer they wont have been as big as Kempton will be given cue cards ability to miss the odd one out and deeper winter ground I didn't think it was that soft yesterday and the possibility dynaste will improve for yesterday I think he can win the king George but one thing for certain I wont be laying cue card for a PLACE
Report sintonian November 24, 2013 10:47 AM GMT
Cue Card made a bad mistake in the HaldonGC at Exeter. He is still prone to a bad and when it does happen it costs him a lot. He was magnificent yesterday but it's not like he pinged from fence to fence.

Brooksie, I think Noel was going wide for the perceived ''better ground''. Maybe it was better, hard to say they will know best.
Report sintonian November 24, 2013 10:48 AM GMT
If Silvio does not go to Kempton then i'd guess the Lexus or Hennessy in Ireland next ..
Report ReaseHeath November 24, 2013 11:09 AM GMT
I appreciate that we don't hear as much from losing connections post race as from winning ones but I thought Joe Tizzard made two significant observations post race yesterday.

First (and obviously) he reminded everybody that Cue Card is bred to get three miles and secondly he said that his defeat in the King George taught him how to race in the sense that he does n't have to start racing just because he gets taken on for the lead.

I really think the winner is the one to take out of the race yesterday, he is n't/was n't foot perfect but he's a fundamentally sound and sometimes spectacular jumper and will be seen to even better effect on better ground. He's certainly a more athletic, superior jumper to Bob's Worth and Long Run.
Report judorick November 24, 2013 12:26 PM GMT
as I was saying on another thread, when I was researching the King George George this time last year (and I posted this at the time) the thing that struck me was the similarity in Cue Card's racing career to other top notch staying chasers of recent times like Best Mate, Kicking King and now, in particular, Imperial Commander

I had already drawn the conclusion that Sprinter Sacre was an absolute monster (which I also stated many times) and had awarded him massive figures in both the Game Spirit (175 minimum) and Arkle (178). So, I knew Cue Card had a high level of ability already.

Then, he comes out and bolts up by 26 lengths off 157 in the Haldon Gold Cup which made think 'wow, how good was that?'

Anyway, I was looking at previous King George's looking for trends, studying profiles of previous winners when I had what I can only describe as a 'Eureka Moment' in my head, a vision of the future, lights flashing, sirens blaring woo woo woo woo, ner ner ner ner,ding ding ding ding ding, jackpot baby... Cue Card is the next great staying chaser!!

Hard to describe but it's that feeling that wells up inside and you recognise it... yes! I have spotted greatness!

Of course, often it all goes wrong and they don't turn out to be any good but this time it was right. He is an absolute top notcher. Watch the replay, JT did not administer the persuader once during the race and the moment he pulled up to talk to Alice Plunkett the horse was barely breathing and would have gone round again in my opinion. Amazingly there are people still doubting him

Anyway, nice when a plan comes together
Report penzance November 24, 2013 1:13 PM GMT
don't think people doubted the ability
of the horse,just his stamina.
Report judorick November 24, 2013 1:21 PM GMT
garbage, plenty just knocked him
Report sintonian November 24, 2013 1:22 PM GMT
It's only his jumping that is sometimes called into question which I think is fair, and until yesterday his stamina was questioned too, hence why his SP was 9/1. His engine has always been evident.
Report FOYLESWAR November 24, 2013 3:05 PM GMT
very well done judo ,you kept the faith and were rewarded, nice one !
Report penzance November 24, 2013 3:09 PM GMT
gargage it is thenLaugh
Report Brooksielad November 24, 2013 4:12 PM GMT
Umhm
Of Silviniaco Conti, Nicholls said: "He ran very well. It was a better race than last year and I just felt he needed the run. I was well pleased. He's in the King George, and I think that would be favourite, but one would have to give him an entry in the Lexus (at Leopardstown)."
Report Angel Gabrial November 24, 2013 9:39 PM GMT
Regarding the King George for Cue Card - last year he was only a 6 year old and running on heavy ground over that trip for the first time. It would have been an incredible performance to win, probably the best 6 year old performance in the race for a long time.
Report Mr Mischief November 25, 2013 8:17 AM GMT

Nov 24, 2013 -- 6:26AM, judorick wrote:


as I was saying on another thread, when I was researching the King George George this time last year (and I posted this at the time) the thing that struck me was the similarity in Cue Card's racing career to other top notch staying chasers of recent times like Best Mate, Kicking King and now, in particular, Imperial CommanderI had already drawn the conclusion that Sprinter Sacre was an absolute monster (which I also stated many times) and had awarded him massive figures in both the Game Spirit (175 minimum) and Arkle (178). So, I knew Cue Card had a high level of ability already.Then, he comes out and bolts up by 26 lengths off 157 in the Haldon Gold Cup which made think 'wow, how good was that?'Anyway, I was looking at previous King George's looking for trends, studying profiles of previous winners when I had what I can only describe as a 'Eureka Moment' in my head, a vision of the future, lights flashing, sirens blaring woo woo woo woo, ner ner ner ner,ding ding ding ding ding, jackpot baby... Cue Card is the next great staying chaser!!Hard to describe but it's that feeling that wells up inside and you recognise it... yes! I have spotted greatness!Of course, often it all goes wrong and they don't turn out to be any good but this time it was right. He is an absolute top notcher. Watch the replay, JT did not administer the persuader once during the race and the moment he pulled up to talk to Alice Plunkett the horse was barely breathing and would have gone round again in my opinion. Amazingly there are people still doubting himAnyway, nice when a plan comes together


judo, if you look far enough above you'll see I congratulated you for your faith in CC and I said he's now in the 'realms of greatness'. To be really there he must win a true and traditional Championship race, ie Gold Cup, Champion Chase or Champion Hurdle. The likes of Champions Bumpers or Ryanairs don't cut it in this realm Im afraid. FWIW I firmly believe he will take all the beating in the Gold Cup this year and perhaps even beyond this year but until he does it is wrong to anoint him as a genuine great just yet.

Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 25, 2013 9:52 AM GMT
It's all about opinions isn't it, but i am sorry mr mischief, but i rated the betfair chase as just as good as a championship race given the opposition was just as strong and in some but not many cases stronger than any race you would get at the Cheltenham festival. Also i must also add a race to be dubbed a championship race does not have to be run at Cheltenham, it can be at any track anywhere in the Uk with grade 1 status dependant upon opposition. Of course the prestige may not be there and for that reason you can argue that it is not but i don't just go on that when assessing. I think the betfair chase will in time get its own prestige, if it don't already hold some.
Imo also, the King George is a championship race, it has prestige of its own right and is a grade 1. Championship races don't always have to have the word champion in their titles imho!
Report Big_Issue November 25, 2013 10:38 AM GMT
Or be run at Cheltenham.
Report Angel Gabrial November 25, 2013 3:59 PM GMT
Seathestars

Championship races are not used as stepping stones for the rest of the season. At Championship races ALL runners are fully prepared and ALL trainers have attempted to get their horses to peak at the top of their ability for that particular race.

Are you suggesting this was the case with the Betfair Chase?
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 25, 2013 4:23 PM GMT
To suggest that not all horses are at their peak to run in a grade 1 is ridiculous imho of course they are their not machines their living breathing animals! Therefore every race, however run is different and therefore anything can and invariably does happen during a horse race!

Yes, i am!
Report sageform November 25, 2013 4:49 PM GMT
Even if it is a championship race, some horses are almost impossible to get to their full peak physically, and more important, mentally first time after a summer break. Many chasers get progressively harder to get fit with every passing year and I suspect that Bobsworth and Long Run are both not fully switched on yet. Whether they will ever recapture their best form is another question.
Report Angel Gabrial November 25, 2013 5:10 PM GMT
Cue Card must have had the edge on fitness over his main rivals, taking nothing away from his performance though. You don`t have these fitness doubts in Championship races.
Report Mr Mischief November 25, 2013 5:53 PM GMT

Nov 25, 2013 -- 3:52AM, SEATHESTARS....NO1 wrote:


It's all about opinions isn't it, but i am sorry mr mischief, but i rated the betfair chase as just as good as a championship race given the opposition was just as strong and in some but not many cases stronger than any race you would get at the Cheltenham festival. Also i must also add a race to be dubbed a championship race does not have to be run at Cheltenham, it can be at any track anywhere in the Uk with grade 1 status dependant upon opposition. Of course the prestige may not be there and for that reason you can argue that it is not but i don't just go on that when assessing. I think the betfair chase will in time get its own prestige, if it don't already hold some.Imo also, the King George is a championship race, it has prestige of its own right and is a grade 1. Championship races don't always have to have the word champion in their titles imho!


I take your point and the Haydock race is clearly growing in stature every year which is only a good thing, but it's a bit like the olympics. You can win all you like around the world but it's what you do in the olympics that gets remembered and where true champions are defined. Cheltenham is the same for National Hunt racing, all roads lead there and it's there where the cream rises to the top. Of course that's to take nothing away from Cue Cards outstanding performance the last day. As I said above I believe he'll take all the beating at the Festival

Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 25, 2013 6:00 PM GMT
I know not the place, but how to you copy someone elses post like you just have mr mischief please? I have always just copy and pasted it into the reply box then put italics on it whenever ive done that i.e



Mr Mischief 25 Nov 13 17:53 Joined: 01 Nov 09 | Topic/replies: 2,118 | Blogger: Mr Mischief's blog

I take your point and the Haydock race is clearly growing in stature every year which is only a good thing, but it's a bit like the olympics. You can win all you like around the world but it's what you do in the olympics that gets remembered and where true champions are defined.

But you put it in a box as if there was a button one could press? Am really confused lol
Report Mr Mischief November 25, 2013 7:13 PM GMT
There is a quote option on the top tight of each post sts. Just click on that and then make your post
Report Mr Mischief November 25, 2013 7:13 PM GMT
top right
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 25, 2013 7:22 PM GMT

Nov 25, 2013 -- 1:13PM, Mr Mischief wrote:


There is a quote option on the top tight of each post sts. Just click on that and then make your post


Ah, finally i fig it out Laugh, use are on on live view

Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 25, 2013 7:23 PM GMT
Now just how the feck you upload photos, never managed to do that either, not for the want of trying, there is a thread ive created on the chit chat forum lol
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