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Graham55
11 Nov 13 21:06
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Date Joined: 24 Feb 05
| Topic/replies: 35 | Blogger: Graham55's blog
Haven't seen a thread up as yet so thought I'd start one, best odds currently below:

Bobs Worth (2), Silviniaco Conti (11/4)in, Dynaste (7), Cue Card (10), Tidal Bay (10), Long Run (12), First Lieutenant (14), The Giant Bolster (16), Roi Du Mee (20), Harry Topper (25), Imperial Commander (25), Prince De Beauchene (25), Cape Tribulation (33), Cloudy Too (33), Wayward Prince (40), Mr Moonshine (100)

Can't help but think this race will cut up, if Dynaste runs Saturday that comes out, Long Run a doubt along with First Lieutenant.

Tidal Bay also unconfirmed.

Anyway, it's between the top two for me unoriginal I know but I think the 11/4 about Silviniaco is a monster price. Won this last year, Nicholls has confirmed this is its target. Track is ideal as are the wheelie jumps. Bob's Worth obviosuly the main danger but I think Silviniaco takes this and takes it well.

Any other musings?

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Replies: 197
By:
judorick
When: 12 Nov 13 00:35
knowing the state of the going would help
By:
Steamship
When: 12 Nov 13 14:41
Making my first ever visit to Haydock on Betfair Chase Day, really looking forward to it.
By:
shockster
When: 12 Nov 13 14:57
Nice course Haydock. Hopefully I'll be there too.  It's a lot narrower than it appears on TV so viewing is excellent.  I reckon Tidal Bay will take some beating if he runs using last years Hennessy as a yardstick, but looks a cracker and it will depend who's wound up on the day.
By:
judorick
When: 12 Nov 13 14:59
any idea of the current state of the going?
By:
shockster
When: 12 Nov 13 15:26
At this time of year I would imagine it will be good/soft or softer.  Haydock has always held water and it can be really heavy. Impossible to be accurate so far in advance though.  Soft 2009, G/S 2010 + 2011, Soft 2012.
By:
buddeliea
When: 12 Nov 13 16:29
Well if its soft or even worse I would rally fancy Tidal Bay,fit from his hurdles run will help as well.


As I said on another thread somewhere,its a fascinating watching race,with last seasons Gold Cup winner and SC who was going close it seemed.Then you have a big race for Cue Card with the will he stay factor.
A couple of horses coming through the ranks in Roi du mee and Harry Topper and also Dynaste and a couple who need to bounce back after below par efforts in First Lieutenant and Long Run.
Really looking forward to this race,and hope its fairly decent ground and it don't cut up too much.
By:
judorick
When: 12 Nov 13 16:32
going to cut up, reckon no more than 7 will run, could be as few as 5
By:
buddeliea
When: 12 Nov 13 16:34
That would be a real shame,it could tell us a lot that race, you basing that on the likely going judo?
By:
judorick
When: 12 Nov 13 16:38
and many of the trainers talking about other races, might get a few rags running

might be totally wrong, just the impression I get, Harry Topper for example defo not running, don't think Dynaste will run

BW, SC, CC, TB + possibly TGB, LR, IC

Might get the likes of Wayward Prince and other no hopers
By:
sintonian
When: 13 Nov 13 13:57
Didn't Mouse Morris say FL was going to run? Best wait and see though ..
By:
buddeliea
When: 13 Nov 13 15:59
Looks like Roi Du Mee will run,his trainer seemed to think so yesterday anyway.
By:
Rocky88888
When: 16 Nov 13 14:27
stuck 25 on silviniaco conti at 5/2 should be good oul race
By:
judorick
When: 16 Nov 13 22:47
right so...(hunting for value):

been trying to put a line on the match up between Dynaste and Cue Card using Module

now it has to be noted that both Module and Cue Card were racing over a trip short of their best and were making seasonal debut which makes comparison with the Jewson difficult

Dynaste beat Module a length and a neck at levels

Module beat Cue Card 6 lengths in receipt of 20lbs

How far would Module have beaten Dynaste getting 20lbs? A lot more than 6 lengths I reckon

The reason I'm saying all this is because the going is unlikely to be soft enough for Tidal Bay so he may not run and both the Nicholls and Henderson horses are appearing to need a run

so if TB, BW and SC are not to win the race (just for arguments sake) then the only realistic contenders that are likely to run are Cue Card and Dynaste who are 9ish and 8ish on here

If TB and the rags don't run then surely both will be much shorter on the day? I'm going to wait til nearer the race to be more certain of the going but I'm pretty sure I want to be on both big time

but back to my original argument, surely CC must be a long way ahead of Dynaste at levels? And he has had a run, which was apparently much needed, and Dynaste has not...

can you see what I'm getting at (decent going permitting)?
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 17 Nov 13 00:36
Agree with the basic premise but...

Nicholls said today (well yesterday) that both TB and SC are intended runners, also TB has already had a run in West Yorkshire Hurdle (maybe you were thinking more about Conti needing a run).

Also worth remebering that race is over 3m 1f this year as opposed to 3m, they gotta use part of flat rack due to drainage **** up or similar?

Still like Cue Card for this but will wait and see what turns up.
By:
buddeliea
When: 17 Nov 13 07:01
Well that's all well and good Judo,but utterly useless if CC don't stay 3m,which really is what this race is all about for him...proving he can be as good over 3m as he is over shorter.
If Bobsworth and Tidal Bay run the winner will have to stay 3m bl00dy well!!!
By:
buddeliea
When: 17 Nov 13 08:09
Tidal Bay will almost certainly run as trainer is saying,and I think it should be made clear that he does not NEED real soft ground,as his run in the Hennessey behind Bobsworth showed.
I would imagine it will be at least good/soft next week.
By:
JOCI Club
When: 17 Nov 13 08:18
Not sure Bobs Worth will 'need the run'. Seems to do OK first time out usually. Won every season opener apart from his bumper, and that includes the Hennessy and the Berkshire Novice Chase (beating Cue Card funnily enough, albeit narrowly and in receipt of 7lbs).
By:
sintonian
When: 17 Nov 13 10:32
Agree Joci. With Bobsworth particularly this will be his first major target of the season as there are no other races for him until the Argento Chase unless they travel over to Ireland which is unlikely.

Judo, if you wait until nearer the time when the going is known then chances are the prices would have disappeared by then.
By:
buddeliea
When: 17 Nov 13 11:46
To be honest,i think anyone thinking of backing Cue Card against Bobsworth,SC and Tidal Bay in his 2nd attempt at 3m having failed 1st time(excuses I know),is stark raving mad-no offence meant.
Would it not be better just to watch,with maybe an antepost voucher at decent prices for future staying races,its not as if hes a value price for a potential non stayer.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 17 Nov 13 14:07
Tizzard not exactly inspiring confidence talking to Plunkett just now - 'need to talk to owner on way home from racing tonight but we'll probably declare him at the 5 day stage'.

He did n't say so but I bet they put Cue Card in the Amlin at Ascot next Saturday also.
By:
JOCI Club
When: 17 Nov 13 14:09
Wouldn't surprise me.
By:
shockster
When: 17 Nov 13 15:15
If they are going down the 3 mile route with Cue Card, then this has to be the time.  If he can't beat the big boys with the benefit of a run then there is little hope when all are 100% match fit.

Pipe seems in top form now and Dynaste will be ready for this.
By:
sintonian
When: 17 Nov 13 16:38
Daryl Jacob opting to ride at Ascot next weekend for Al Ferof and Zarkandar instead of Silviniaco.
By:
SeaTheStars101
When: 17 Nov 13 23:29
Good stuff Sint not a big fan of DJ but he wasn't going to be on the 1 I like anyway. I love this tidal bay made my christmas winning the lexus. Just keeps finding more and more and when you think he is done he gets a second wind and is off again.

I backed bobs worth for the henessey and gold cup last year will be thereabouts obviously the most likely winner. But TB with a sharpener over hurdles and the best form against the best horse in the race BW. I think TB is the 1 to go with off level weights with BW and with soft in the going description he will relish this. although SC could be the 1 to come of age and take it at the price I am not interested.

People talking of CC are nuts he needs genuine good ground to show his best form at any distance let alone over 3m+ which he is unproven. The betfair chase is rarely good ground all the stars will have to align for this horse to win. I do fancy him in the spring for 2m5f races on good but thats it.
By:
eskdale
When: 18 Nov 13 15:46
Wouldn't be backing bobs worth around haydock like a greyhound track now will be outpaced a long way out silviniaco conti or dynaste for me!
By:
sisyphus
When: 18 Nov 13 16:21
I have always had it that Haydock has stamina as a prerequisite, races are invariably ran as a slog. The course is not to dissimilar to Doncaster and Newbury and I don't recall a moment where Bobsworth got outpaced in the Hennessey. He looked to get outpaced at Cheltenham but plaudits put that down to a mixture of the downhill section and a superb ride from Geraghty, waiting for the rising ground to deliver his burst. Haydock has a four and a half furlong run in that rises slightly all the way from the six furlong shoot to the line and I could list you loads of attrition laden performances over the years. The ground always comes up testing and this years race is over an extra furlong. For my shillings worth I one wouldn't be discounting Bobsworth on account of the course being like a greyhound track.
By:
boy wonder 07
When: 18 Nov 13 16:38
cue card will never win at 3miles he must be a monster place lay if they all line up
By:
boy wonder 07
When: 18 Nov 13 16:46
don't forget whilst haydock has been alike to a greyhound track for the last few years this season they will be back on the outside with supposedly stiffer fences this will be a true test
By:
sisyphus
When: 18 Nov 13 17:24
JudoRick
right so...(hunting for value):
Good I will hunt with you...

been trying to put a line on the match up between Dynaste and Cue Card using Module and it has to be noted that both Module and Cue Card were racing over a trip short of their best and were making seasonal debuts which makes comparison with the Jewson difficult
Firstly Cue card was only beaten by Sprinter Sacre in the 2 mile CHAMPION chase, so you cant be sure that 2 mile is not his best distance. Secondly you don't know how much either has progressed over the summer. Thirdly the courses were entirely different and the opposite way round. Finally the comparison is completely ludicrous.

Dynaste beat Module a length and a neck at levels.
Over 2 mile four furlongs going left handed.

Module beat Cue Card 6 lengths in receipt of 20lbs.
Over 2 miles going right handed.

How far would Module have beaten Dynaste getting 20lbs? A lot more than 6 lengths I reckon.
Well is that over 2 miles or 3 miles, totally agree with you if its 2 miles but disagree over 3 mile, how far would Mo Farah beat Usain bolt over 10,000 metres giving him 20lb? A lot more than 6 metres I reckon.

The reason I'm saying all this is because the going is unlikely to be soft enough for Tidal Bay so he may not run and both the Nicholls and Henderson horses are appearing to need a run
Well its looking like both the Nicholls horses are taking their chances, the ground is likely to be proper winter dead, and both Nicholls and Henderson have had 8 winners each in the last fourteen days against the well out of form Tizzard with only 2.

so if TB, BW and SC are not to win the race (just for arguments sake) then the only realistic contenders that are likely to run are Cue Card and Dynaste who are 9ish and 8ish on here
The biggest crock of sh1t reasoning from the heart statement I have ever heard unless you are betting on the match, in which case you will get 4/5 the field.

If TB and the rags don't run then surely both will be much shorter on the day? I'm going to wait until nearer the race to be more certain of the going but I'm pretty sure I want to be on both big time
Surely if your backing both then you want bigger prices, if the scenario you dreamt of when you were at your wildest should come true, then both will be half the price and half again because you are divided, why don't you wait until they are approaching the line and bet in running.

but back to my original argument, surely CC must be a long way ahead of Dynaste at levels? And he has had a run, which was apparently much needed, and Dynaste has not...
Doesn't really matter about your original argument you were obviously p1ssed when you dreamt all this up. They both won first time out last year, Pipe obviously under cooked Dynaste after his 3 month mid winter rest leading up to the Jewson, and the distance is obviously not Dynaste's optimum, and certainly not Cue cards.

can you see what I'm getting at (decent going permitting)?
One last thing, Dynaste absolutely dotted up over the course and distance in the fixed brush hurdle 2 seasons back looking like he could go round again, match that to Cue Card not even looking like getting round once the only time he encountered 3 mile, and I think we have found our value.

You obviously love Cue Card blindly to ignore the facts but I bet you he don't even run.

Alas poor JudoRick he knew him not so well.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 18 Nov 13 17:43
sisyphus
18 Nov 13 18:24
Joined:
19 Jan 04
| Topic/replies: 286 | Blogger: sisyphus's blog
JudoRick
right so...(hunting for value):
Good I will hunt with you...

been trying to put a line on the match up between Dynaste and Cue Card using Module and it has to be noted that both Module and Cue Card were racing over a trip short of their best and were making seasonal debuts which makes comparison with the Jewson difficult
Firstly Cue card was only beaten by Sprinter Sacre in the 2 mile CHAMPION chase, so you cant be sure that 2 mile is not his best distance. Secondly you don't know how much either has progressed over the summer. Thirdly the courses were entirely different and the opposite way round. Finally the comparison is completely ludicrous.







oh dear a serious error here...

have you been asleep for a year or did you miss cue card winning the ryannair sisyphus last season

don't think he has ever run in a champion chaseGrinor has heShocked
By:
sisyphus
When: 18 Nov 13 17:46
True Second only to Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle
By:
sisyphus
When: 18 Nov 13 17:47
Taken in 2 mile races first time out in both the last two seasons
By:
unclepuncle
When: 18 Nov 13 18:02
Silviniaco Conti looks the most likely winner to me and I'd have him favourite.
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Nov 13 18:42
Tidal Bay has the form to win this along with his having a run already this season.
Most likely winner imo.
By:
yeast
When: 18 Nov 13 19:36
Worth noting that Saturday's race is over 3M 1F rather than the usual 3M. Can only be a help to Bob's Worth.
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Nov 13 19:47
he will be 2nd home I reckon
By:
shockster
When: 18 Nov 13 20:01
I've backed Dynaste as I think there's more to come.  A leap of faith is needed but we'll find out on Saturday.  Agree with you Budd regarding Tidal Bay and after watching last years Hennessy where he gave Bobsworth 6lb btn 3l and then winning the Lexus, I find it difficult to understand why his hcp mark is 9lb lower than Bobsworth?????  Do think it's a tough ask for a 12 year old though.
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Nov 13 20:04
Normally it would be a tough ask Shock but he don't seem to be normal!!

Well yes mate,on all known form last season he aint 9lb inferior.
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Nov 13 20:07
Big race for Dynaste,and a few others- in particular Cue Card.
Could be right about Dynaste mate I think theres definitely more to come,but whether he can produce that 1st time out against this field?.... interesting!!
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