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Horse Antepost
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These 88 comments are related to the topic:
** Longines Hong Kong International Races (8 Dec 2013) **
** Longines Hong Kong International Races (8 Dec 2013) **
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Replies: 88
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I'm a bit concerned with the vibes coming from the Hannon yard regarding Sky Lantern. Not sure what to make of it but I will be waiting till the day of the race before I back her now, hopefully she will be OK!!! If Dan Excel gets a good draw, he could be the EW play for me, he has got some good form against Glorious Days and some of the other Hong Kong runners. 25-1 seems a decent price for a horse who works well with Military Attack and has been campaigned the same sort of way by John Moore.
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It's not that i don't like him Sint he has done nothing wrong this season so far and he may step up again but Dan Excel, as an example, gave him 5lbs and was beaten 2 lengths lto and it was only DE's 2nd up run so 4-1 is a bit too short for me.
Mr D - these were notes from yesterday; SKY LANTERN (GB) The filly made her first appearance on the track today, and attracted a mass of media attention. Assistant trainer Richard Hannon jr said: “She was a bit quiet when she arrived at the weekend, but she is fine now and is eating and drinking plenty. We’re just giving her a quiet canter today.” |
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Reversal on the draw in the sprint this year
http://www.hkjc.com/english/corporate/racing_news_item.asp?in_file=/english/news/2013-12/news_2013120501217.html |
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Track work for today
http://www.hkjc.com/english/corporate/racing_news_item.asp?in_file=/english/news/2013-12/news_2013120501319.html |
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Superb draw for Lucky Nine!
 Thanks for the info HK.  |
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Great one for Dan Excel too - Glorious Days and Gold Fun got filthy ones.
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Good draw for Mount Athos and The Fugue.
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Will 8 suit Sky Lantern? Helene Spirit will try to get to the front from 5 along with Dan Excel from 7 so she could get in early to help.
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Looks like you've got markets for every race at Sha Tin on Sunday
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Yep, I think your spot on with that HK regarding Sky Lantern. I will be having Dan Excel as my EW saver, pretty good draw for him. GD and GF got a couple of stinkers.
I'm a bit worried with Military Attack in 9. His best runs have been when he's sat just off the pace. He could struggle to get an ideal position from there!!! |
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9 is not ideal at all but he has won from wide draws before as he does have some gate speed to sit just off if he can get in, Side Glance in 2 means he could do what he did in Aus from there.
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This may be of help to anyone for all of Sunday's card
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20131208_starter_all.pdf |
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cheers for those cards HK, can't understand why the Racing post haven't got them up yet. looks a top class card looking forward to it.
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Couple of stats for you if that's what floats your boat - no horse drawn over gate 9 has won the sprint since it was moved to 1200m in 2006. 19 runnings of the vase only 4 times have horses won that were drawn in double digits.
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4 from 19 isn't bad at all when you consider the lesser number of runners compared to single figure runners. 22% strike rate, or thereabouts.
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The sprint is the interesting one - there have been some decent horses drawn high too. If you like Lord K I would suggest the price will be bigger on the HKJC on Sunday than it currently is, think Lucky Nine will get a lot of cash.
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Agree with Sint regarding the draw stats for the HK Vase. They have all of the home straight to sort themselves out so I wouldn't be worried with a high draw.
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Dr Dino was the last winner from a double digit draw (2008) and the only placed horse in the race drawn in double digits since Six Sense came 2nd to Ouija Board in 2005 so not great stats - I do agree with you though that they do have 2f before the bend so should be able to sort themselves out but these stats are worse than the mile race where there isn't such a bias. I haven't looked at the prices of those unplaced horses drawn wide and can't be bothered to do so as I know what I'm doing in that race anyway - it was just a bit of info should you take those things in to consideration.
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After I've told you this I'm going to do a trio on horses drawn 10-14 as you know what will happen now!!
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Some interesting stuff HK, it's surprising how some stat's work out. I never thought it would that biased in the HK Vase!
The one I've backed is in 10!!!  |
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Just had a quick look and those drawn high are usually longer priced runners so that balances it out a little - double digits in the main, Dr Dino was fav when he won in 08 drawn 12.
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Some info from today is Mt Athos is looking very good and has some very good reports about his wellbeing
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yep, he looks the eachway bet to me as previously stated, 10/1, and a win bet on The Fugue in multiples! That is my plan of attack!
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Interesting that Moore thinks Dan Excel and Military Attack may be a race shorter than he'd like in their preparation.
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I'm exactly the same Sint for that race anyway!!
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First multiple bets on
Fourfold Sky Lantern 6.50 Hong Kong Mile - 08/12/2013 Red Cadeaux 9.00 Hong Kong Vase - 08/12/2013 Lucky Nine 5.00 Hong Kong Sprint - 08/12/2013 Military Attack 4.00 Hong Kong Cup - 08/12/2013 1 bets @ £5.00 Stake £5.00 Estimated Return:£5850.00 Lucky 15 Sky Lantern 6.50 Hong Kong Mile - 08/12/2013 Red Cadeaux 9.00 Hong Kong Vase - 08/12/2013 Lucky Nine 5.00 Hong Kong Sprint - 08/12/2013 Military Attack 4.0 0Hong Kong Cup - 08/12/2013 15 bets @ £1.00 Stake £15.00 Estimated Return:£2249.00 |
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Looks like a decent bet F, I will post my multiple bet on Saturday night my time (I'm changing my mind frequently) - unfortunately it will be SP only on HKJC but at least they do accept all up bets.....my main bets will be done as singles on the day and I'm not too sure I can post from my phone as I can't access the forum by the ap. If you are watching live race 2 and 6 are decent too.
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Dandino and Galileo Rock out
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7801 07-12-2013
13:28 Sha Tin Sunday All Up Win 4X11 $50 Race 4 11 THE FUGUE Race 5 2 LUCKY NINE Race 7 14 SKY LANTERN Race 8 1 MILITARY ATTACK $550.00 Only 1 different to yours Fato - the $ is HKD. Will back them as singles on the day, or change my mind but this is on as a multiple. I like Mt Athos, Frederick Engels, Dan Excel and Side Glance as EW bets as singles too - may do a place only multiple on them. |
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Great minds think a like!!!
 I've placed two EW Lucky 15 bets and an ante post bet on Asuka Kurichan (50-1 EW) in the Vase. I will probably add a couple of single EW bets as well but my main bet of the meeting will be Lucky Nine. Freddy Engels was one I was looking at last night HK. He's got a good draw and his run in the Premier Bowl (G2 Handicap) was very good considering he was carrying a lot more weight than the others. His last run can be forgiven because he was drawn wide (12)! Very interesting contender who has slipped under the radar. If Lucky Nine wasn't running he would be the EW play. EW Lucky 15 Bet 1 Vase: Asuka Kurichan @ 33/1 Sprint: Lucky Nine @ 4/1 Mile: Sky Lantern @ 11/2 Cup: Military Attack @ 3/1 EW Lucky 15 Bet 2 Vase: Asuka Kurichan @ 33/1 Sprint: Lucky Nine @ 4/1 Mile: Dan Excel @ 25/1 Cup: Military Attack @ 3/1 Have a great day HK, it looks and sounds like it will be absolutely fantastic!!! Good luck all. |
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GL to you too.
I'm hoping I get some extra to play with from race 2 where I like the 3, the fav is the obvious selection and won well last time out but I think this race is easier than Destined for Glory has run in this season and at the moment he's 10-1 so a good EW play. Mr D - this is my 6th one in a row, Snow Fairy is the best memory so far. |
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Sha Tin is the one racecourse I would love to go to. Maybe next year, if I can get the funds together!!! 6th in a row, you know how to rub salt in the wound HK!
 Some great memories over the last few years but Pride holding off Admire Moon was a real favourite of mine, especially after her agonising defeat to Vengeance Of Rain the previous year. Snow Fairy was electric that day, another one of Dunlop's that thrived on traveling to the other side of the world!! |
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I have lived her for 6 years so it would be criminal not to go - probably the best value racing I have been to.
As I mentioned before if you do get to come you would have to come from the Weds before so you could take in Happy Valley too as that place is mental. Sha Tin is massive it takes almost 100k people - the only thing missing are bookmakers and being in the hands of late money from the syndicates if you think you've found a good value proposition. Though you don't have any worries about being paid out or getting on for any sum, 6 of us won the Triple Trio one weds night and got paid out HKD 432k in cash as soon as the weigh in sign was posted for the final leg. |
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Yep, that would be criminal HK.
I have a had a look into it, flights and hotels are not as expensive as I thought. If I did go, I would head out on the Monday before the meeting and come back the following Monday so Happy Valley would fit in nicely on the Wednesday. Hopefully one of my Lucky 15 bets comes in! That Triple Trio was a good pay out!!! |
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Wasn't worried so much about Galileo Rock over this trip but Dandino being out certainly makes things easier for the front two now.
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This may be of interest to you - it's the racing to win show that they air the night before each meeting, you can click on each race number to get the analysis of the team for that specific race.
http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/showcase.asp |
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right lets see how many I get wrong....
Vase - The Fugue. Class Act in the race. The Magician put in a crazy final quarter to beat her last time. sub 22 seconds. Really don't think the likes of Simeon and Mount Athos can match that. Sprint - Lucky 9. Thought it was a fine run in the Manikato behind Buffering...just didn't handle the straight track at Flemington on Oaks Day....should be a lot fitter now, handy draw and hopefully blows this lot away. Mile - Sky Lantern eachway at the prices...Guineas Winner, Coronation Stakes winner when draw way out in the car park and then probably her best performance when taking the Sun Chariot. The put her away straight after with this race firmly on the agenda. Cup - Military Attack groupie. The Draw is tricky but if he's back to that Singapore Airlines performance then he takes this. |
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I've also got a fiver on that quad ELG at 251/1. Would kick myself if The Foog won and let down a fourfold :D
Despite the poor draw I can't help but think Slade Power is a big price. Potentially massive on HKJC too. Is there any way I can get HKJC prices in the UK? Can you get place odds too? Would love to go to this meet one day. A Wednesday night at Happy Valley was the closest I got, but that was excellent. |
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Sint have you got your fourfold(s) on yet? :)
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Well we've got 4 happy people or 4 suckers.....after watching the tv analysis I'm not convinced we are right about the girls but I'm on anyway so I can't do my usual and change my mind and then watch in horror as my original selection skates home. I suspect I might now just do the we selections I made as singles - depends how drunk I am....the trouble is I have a lot of people paying me cash today for their ticket which is always a danger!!
Good luck all |