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ashleigh
27 Oct 13 12:14
Joined:
Date Joined: 23 Aug 02
| Topic/replies: 2,625 | Blogger: ashleigh's blog
market up now.   
1 of my favourite races. 
dynaste fav, but will he run?
Pause Switch to Standard View HENNESSY GOLD CUP
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Report JOCI Club November 28, 2013 10:15 AM GMT
Trends analysis:

Rocky Creek 90%
Lord Windermere 89%
Invictus 77%

Houblon Des Obeaux 63%
Our Father 63%
Katenko 59%
Highland Lodge 54%
Hadrian´s Approach 51%
Opening Batsman 48%
Prince De Beauchene 48%
Triolo D´Alene 47%
Cloudy Too 46%
Theatre Guide 46%
Merry King 38%
Super Duty 38%
Same Difference 38%
Cape Tribulation 33%
Imperial Commander 33%
Vesper Bell 31%
Loch Ba 26%
Terminal 25%
On His Own 23%
Whodoyouthink 8%
Report JOCI Club November 28, 2013 10:19 AM GMT
Trends analysis:

Rocky Creek 90%
Lord Windermere 89%
Invictus 77%

Houblon Des Obeaux 63%
Our Father 63%
Katenko 59%
Highland Lodge 54%
Hadrian´s Approach 51%
Opening Batsman 48%
Prince De Beauchene 48%
Triolo D´Alene 47%
Cloudy Too 46%
Theatre Guide 46%
Merry King 38%
Super Duty 38%
Same Difference 38%
Cape Tribulation 33%
Imperial Commander 33%
Vesper Bell 31%
Loch Ba 26%
Terminal 25%
On His Own 23%
Whodoyouthink 8%


Last year, the same analysis came up with:

Bobs Worth 94% 1st

Hold On Julio 69%   
Tidal Bay 63%    2nd
First Lieutenant 59%    3rd
Frisco Depot 55%   
Duke Of Lucca 49%   
Saint Are 49%   
Teaforthree 46%   
Harry The Viking 45%   
Magnanimity 42%   
The Package 41%    4th
Planet Of Sound 39%   
Roberto Goldback 39%   
Junior 38%   
Diamond Harry 38%   
Soll 37%   
Alfie Spinner 31%   
Ikorodu Road 23%   
Fruity O´Rooney 9%
Report BJG November 28, 2013 10:34 AM GMT
Racecourse Newbury ‏@RacesNewbury 3m
Hennessy Gold Cup decs: Cape Tribulation, Katenko, Prince De Beauchene, Lord Windermere, Houblon Des Obeaux, Imperial Commander, Rocky Creek

Racecourse Newbury ‏@RacesNewbury 1m
Cont... Cloudy Too, Super Duty, Triolo D'Alene, Same Difference, Our Father, Opening Batsman, Hadrian's Approach, Invictus, Theatre Guide


Racecourse Newbury ‏@RacesNewbury 53s
Cont... Terminal, Highland Lodge, Merry King, Loch Ba, Whodoyouthink - 21 runners in total
Report shockster November 28, 2013 10:40 AM GMT
Only On His Own and Vesper Bell taken out.
Report BJG November 28, 2013 11:18 AM GMT
1     1155-P    Cape Tribulation28    9    11-12    Malcolm Jefferson50    Jack Doyle     158    133    168
2     F0211-    Katenko308    7    11-11    Venetia Williams43    Aidan Coleman     157    124    166
3     1/12-3    Prince De Beauchene28    10    11-9    W P Mullins55    R Walsh     155    40    163
4     21231-    Lord Windermere262    7    11-8    J H Culloty    Mr Robbie McNamara     154    129    163
5     3274-1    Houblon Des Obeaux28    6    11-8    Venetia Williams43    Liam Treadwell     154    132    166
6     1P/2P-    Imperial Commander238 t      12    11-7    Nigel Twiston-Davies45    Paddy Brennan     153    103    166
7     21113-    Rocky Creek239      7    11-5    Paul Nicholls72    Daryl Jacob     151    141    166
8     1103-1    Cloudy Too27    7    11-4    Sue Smith40    Richard Johnson     150    144    170
9     21224-    Super Duty239    7    11-2    Donald McCain50    Jason Maguire     148    143    165
10     381-13    Triolo D´Alene28    6    11-1    Nicky Henderson56    Barry Geraghty     147    149    166
11     3612-0    Same Difference28 v    7    11-1    Nigel Twiston-Davies45    Sam Twiston-Davies     147    152    166
12     P/124-    Our Father294 t    7    11-1    David Pipe61    Timmy Murphy     147    115    145
13     211P-P    Opening Batsman28 tp    7    11-0    Harry Fry67    Noel Fehily     146    146    168
14     2235-2    Hadrian´s Approach26 p      6    11-0    Nicky Henderson56    Nico de Boinville5     146    153    167
15     11131/    Invictus651    7    10-13    Alan King36    Robert Thornton     145    —    —
16     PFP1-3    Theatre Guide26 t    6    10-13    Colin Tizzard83    Joe Tizzard     145    148    166
17     15U-0P    Terminal73    6    10-12    W P Mullins55     144    141    165
18     1356-2    Highland Lodge34      7    10-11    Emma Lavelle73    Leighton Aspell     143    159    170
19     1220-2    Merry King28    6    10-8    Jonjo O´Neill59    Richie McLernon     140    144    167
20     21U5-2    Loch Ba17      7    10-1    Mick Channon67    Dominic Elsworth     133    154    167
21     5P-008    Whodoyouthink33 p    8    10-0    Oliver McKiernan    Patrick Mangan3     132    111    154
Report Colldogg November 28, 2013 11:49 AM GMT
Have Cloudy Too owners got something against Ryan Mania? Can't believe he's never partnered the horse.

As I backed Rocky Creek antepost, I was hoping for a few more to drop out. However looking through the final decs I can't see an awful lot that is better than him if he runs up to his mark. Certainly not going to be out of the first 4 if he completes.
Report unclepuncle November 28, 2013 3:52 PM GMT
Have looked at this race for weeks trying to find an angle or an outsider whose some value but can't find one.

Lord Windermere and Rocky Creek look the safest plays, with Invictus (thrown in if in same form as when last seen) and Our Father (outstanding record fresh) the dangers.

That's the first 4 in the market so think I'll just sit and watch.
Report sintonian November 28, 2013 4:53 PM GMT
You can rule out Our Father imo. He's only had 3 chase runs which is way undercooked for a race like this. I know he has a 100% record fresh but he'll have to do something no other horse has done and that is win the race with less than 5 chase starts.

Invictus has been and had TWO racecourse gallops. If he ain't fit for his life i'm a dutchman. He has drifted to 11/1 now, if he gets much bigger I may have to go against my original opinion of not backing Choc and have a saver.
Report Regular Fries November 28, 2013 5:10 PM GMT
This looks ultra competitive doesn't it!

If Invictus is fit for his life, isn't there also a danger of him undercooked as well sint? Only one chase run more than Our Father and won't have run in such a big field before. Quite a conundrum!
Report duffy November 28, 2013 5:22 PM GMT
Isn't there a danger that we could be putting too much stock in the improvement that BW and SC have achieved and carrying invictus along with it, that's still an inponderable.Also, has the stable form just fallen off a bit.?
Report judorick November 28, 2013 5:28 PM GMT
absolutely right
Report JOCI Club November 28, 2013 5:36 PM GMT
sintonian
28 Nov 13 16:53
Joined:
21 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 22,193 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
You can rule out Our Father imo. He's only had 3 chase runs which is way undercooked for a race like this. I know he has a 100% record fresh but he'll have to do something no other horse has done and that is win the race with less than 5 chase starts.


7 of last 10 winners had run in 3 to 6 chases prior to winning the Hennessy.

Not sure where you got your stats from but:

Bobs Worth - 4 chases
Diamond Harry - 3 chases
State of Play - 4 chases
Trabolgan - 4 chases
Srong Flow - 4 chases
Report sintonian November 28, 2013 6:10 PM GMT
Apologies, though 3 is far from ideal.
Report marychain1 November 28, 2013 6:10 PM GMT
what has Rocky Creek done to justify favouritsm for a Hennessey?
Report sintonian November 28, 2013 6:12 PM GMT
He may improve experience wise RF, and mentality, but I personally believe he is as fit as they can get him without having had a race. Probably why he has had two racecourse gallops but that's just my opinion.
Report sintonian November 28, 2013 6:14 PM GMT
Invcitus only needs 8lb in hand to win off 145, this still puts him 2 stone below BW & SC.
Report sintonian November 28, 2013 6:35 PM GMT
He's looked potential top quality in a couple of his races, Mary. But tbh I have only backed him due to his paper profile and the trainers modus operandi. It's hard to say how well handicapped he is. Backers are betting on him improving/trends. Stable in fine form though.

My other bet in the race is Loch Ba at 40/1. He has bottom weight, had a run recently, stable in-form as their Sgt Reckless turned over West Wizard on Monday, and the horse has won at the track.
Report ReaseHeath November 28, 2013 6:41 PM GMT
Rocky Creek at least has some decent form with the likes of Houblon Des Obeaux and Harry Topper.

It's Our Father's price I can't get my head around, seems to be purely on the basis that he 'goes well fresh' - the chase he won looks a pretty weak race in hindsight and they finished strung out like washing (though it was a likeable performance).

Anyway, I think it's going to be Opening Batsman and Invictus for me.
Report judorick November 28, 2013 7:06 PM GMT
if you look at the history of the Reynaldstown Chase at Ascot, it often supplies horses that go close in the Hennessy

Burton Port won the Reynaldstown before running second to Diamond Harry off 158

Air Force One was second off 153

Rocky Creek gets in here off 151 which makes me think he is really well handicapped. When you combine that with the trainers record, his age, number of runs, wins in Graded chase and many other useful pointers, not least the trainer nominating this race and deliberately missing the Cheltenham Festival then it's easy to see why punters have latched on to him
Report shockster November 28, 2013 7:42 PM GMT
I'm on 3 at Ante Post and like the chances of them all as they are all 6 and hopefully still improving.  Merry King and Triolo D'Alene I'm happy with but I am coming round more to the idea of TERMINAL.  Yes his last couple of runs look average but he is unbeaten on GOOD ground and only beaten on GS once when behind Lord Windermere in the RSA. He was 10L behind after making a bad mistake 4 out and stayed on again.  Saturday he is 10lb better off and 2lb better off with Hadrians Approach for the 2L he was behind him.  The ground looks likely to be either Good or Good/Soft and he looks overpriced.

Does anybody know who the jockey will be?  Wouldn't mind a good claimer!
Report slowerthanjohn November 28, 2013 7:55 PM GMT
I'm on 2 ante post Merry King ew at 20's and Lord Windermere at 12's. Not overly confident as I think it's a very open renewal this year. Rocky Creek is respected but if he wasn't trained by P.Nicholls he would be a far far bigger price and strictly on his Aintree run is that well handicapped. Our Father is obviously a first time out beast but not sure any of his form amounts to much? Invictus beat Bob's Worth and Silviacno Conti but I'm pretty sure both ran well below par as Alfie Spinner seperated the 2 of them and he has proved to be no world beater. I'm starting to think Prince De Beauchene could be a big player as he has always been well regarded.
Report JOCI Club November 28, 2013 8:16 PM GMT
sintonian
28 Nov 13 18:10
Joined:
21 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 22,200 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
Apologies, though 3 is far from ideal.


I kind of see it as a positive. The lightly raced, second season, progressive types tend to thrive, perhaps because they've never given the handicapper the oportunity to catch up with them.
Report Big Bucks John November 28, 2013 8:19 PM GMT
I agree with ReaseHeath about Our Father being too short, not saying it can't win but don't see what it has achieved to be that short in the betting.
Report sintonian November 28, 2013 8:32 PM GMT
tricky balancing act between experience and not showing your hand to the handicapper Joci. I'd prefer a bit more exp myself for a race like this, it's like a mini-national.
Report brandyontherocks November 28, 2013 9:37 PM GMT
I'd much rather back a lightly raced chaser whose true handicap mark could be hidden from the handicapper. This race quite often goes to a young, improving sort.
Report brandyontherocks November 28, 2013 9:38 PM GMT
Sint you surprise me
Report betilyerded November 28, 2013 9:58 PM GMT
Slowerthanjohn - Invictus beat Bob's Worth and Silviacno Conti but I'm pretty sure both ran well below par as Alfie Spinner seperated the 2 of them and he has proved to be no world beater.

Very good point though Alfie Spinner was first past the post in the Hennessy last season - minus jockey Mark Quinlan!

I was on Highland Lodge at 25's immediately after Standing Ovation won the Badger Ales but any confidence has evaporated with every bit of moisture that has left the ground. cant see it troubling the classier horses.

Surprised to see Super Duty running after all the negative comments about running in the race at the start of the season from Donlad McCain. Maybe he was expecting a bog?
Report duffy November 28, 2013 10:15 PM GMT
I really liked highland lodge too, wouldn't be at all surprised to see him withdrawn now and kept back for the welsh national.
Report mac99 November 28, 2013 10:57 PM GMT
Lord Windemere  has been placed in all of his last six runs  culminating in a win in the  top Novice chase  at Cheltenham , those six runs came  within  just a four month period , he has had a fair rest  now  so it is difficult to see past him if fully fit   , for a saver  I will go for  Hadrians Wall , he will be that bit more mature than when he ran against  Lord Windemere in March  and is  nearly a stone better off  when the  claimer allowance is added in  , he has had a run  and may be better on a Flat Track , plenty more of interest  but can't back em all gl
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 28, 2013 11:37 PM GMT

Nov 28, 2013 -- 1:06PM, judorick wrote:


if you look at the history of the Reynaldstown Chase at Ascot, it often supplies horses that go close in the HennessyBurton Port won the Reynaldstown before running second to Diamond Harry off 158Air Force One was second off 153Rocky Creek gets in here off 151 which makes me think he is really well handicapped. When you combine that with the trainers record, his age, number of runs, wins in Graded chase and many other useful pointers, not least the trainer nominating this race and deliberately missing the Cheltenham Festival then it's easy to see why punters have latched on to him


I thought Nichols missed the festival with Rocky Creek cos he said chelt' wouldn't suit, he was waiting for punch/aintreeConfused

Report judorick November 28, 2013 11:48 PM GMT
maybe so, but he nominated the Hennessy early

just pointing out SOME of the reasons the horse is fancied

151 is low, when you consider he beat Houblon des Obeaux at levels, yet gets 3lb in this race
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 28, 2013 11:48 PM GMT
Not sure but i think i will take back what i said above as i have just found an article from Nichols on here from back in January. It goes into detail about his possible handicap mark taking into account the point to point it ran in etc and

But I view Rocky Creek as very much a horse for next season, and I am already looking forward to the Hennessy with him. So I wouldn't mind missing Cheltenham with him, like we did with Silviniaco Conti last year, and going to Aintree.

But obviously nothing will be decided until I sit down with Andy Stewart and David Johnson, though I think a race such as the Reynoldstown at Ascot could be an option for his next start.

Wherever he goes next, and whatever he does this season though, he is a proper horse for the future.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 28, 2013 11:59 PM GMT
http://puntersclub.mirror.co.uk/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/hennessy-gold-cup-trends-2013-1384728143



Not a bad source for trends
Report judorick November 29, 2013 12:00 AM GMT
that's exactly what I remember reading and the horse has been laid out
Report mac99 November 29, 2013 7:26 AM GMT
I meant Hadrians Approach*  Hadrians Wall a non runnerExcited
Report sintonian November 29, 2013 10:24 AM GMT
Brandy, we are splitting hairs with horses that have had between 3-4 chase starts and 5-6. I've not said I prefer an exposed handicapper, just a horse with more than 3 chases so they have the right blend of experience but at the same time not being overly exposed. 5-6 chase runs is what I tend to look for in this race but that's just me. None of the horses at the head of the market you would call exposed.
Report BJG November 29, 2013 11:46 AM GMT
Robbie McNamara broke his collar bone this mornin - Douggie Costello will ride Lord Windermere
Report mange November 29, 2013 12:16 PM GMT
Ive had to back IMPERIAL COMMANDER off 153............Its won before after nearly a year off.................did nothing wrong in Jan off 164.......& the booking of Paddy makes it a serious assault

            G.L. all
Report sageform November 29, 2013 1:16 PM GMT
Rocky Creek now has to taken seriously after Paul Nicholls sent out 4 winners in 24 hours, 3 of them staying chasers. If they have all been trained as a group for this meeting, there could be a few more to come.
Report The Sawyer November 29, 2013 2:28 PM GMT
mange the race in January was not a handicap and he was beaten receiving 6lbs by the then 151 rated Cape Tribulation. At the weights he shouldn't beat CT and he is available at almost three times the price of IC on here.

I hope they both run blinders but I think both will need slower ground to win this.

GL all the same.
Report ReaseHeath November 29, 2013 2:48 PM GMT
Nicholls said yesterday that Rocky Creek is also the latest occupant of the box which used to be home for Kauto Star!
Report Can't Catch Me November 29, 2013 3:01 PM GMT
Never hidden his affection for the horse! Surprised it isnt clear fav myself. The drying ground probably the only thing not in his favour.
Report Autocue November 29, 2013 3:19 PM GMT
Imperial Commander's run against Cape Tribulation looked OK but the form didn't amount to much afterwards. This race usually goes to young improvers nowadays not has-beens dropping down the handicap.
Report ReaseHeath November 29, 2013 3:55 PM GMT
Wilde Blue Yonder snaps a 28 runner losing streak for Alan King just as I was fretting about the Invictus' stable form.

Impossible game, this!
Report brandyontherocks November 29, 2013 4:03 PM GMT
Fair game Sint.
Thought you was implying you prefer seasoned handicappers.
Report 1st time poster November 29, 2013 4:17 PM GMT
carruthers, Wink
Report Arklearkle November 29, 2013 4:49 PM GMT
Rease the fact that RC is in Kautos box may say more about PFNs horses than it does about RC but he could eventually be a world beater I suppose. Certainly it would appear that he has been well minded and no better race to mind him for. His horses appear to be on fire also of course.
Report Millerracing67 November 29, 2013 5:06 PM GMT
Took a little bit of the ante-p about Rocky Creek some wks ago for this (12s ew).
Would have preferred the ground a bit more on the soft side for him but he looks sure to be in the mix granted a gd clear round (still looks a solid ew at 8s yet imo)
Gd luck 2moro all Cool
Report ReaseHeath November 29, 2013 5:21 PM GMT
Arkle, yes I appreciate that - he was n't making a big deal about it - Just A Par is next door in Denman's old box.Problem for Nicholls is that the benchmark is so high and the media invite the comparisons. On the other hand, the benchmark should help him assess the potential of his new generation chasers more accurately than emerging trainers who have not had the same quality previously.

I quite admire the way Nicholls has handled himself since Kauto and Denman retired - quietly gone about the business of trying to replace them without putting too much pressure on himself or the horses, unlikely to be any like-for-like replacements - more a case of having a number of contenders until one establishes himself as a top notch staying chaser.

I won't be backing Rocky Creek because the ground might be a bit too quick and he's short enough now, would n't be surprised if he won though.
Report Colldogg November 29, 2013 6:30 PM GMT
Is it just me who doesn't get the gamble on Loch Ba? Noway near the quality to win a Hennessy. Class 3 handicapper at best...

Super Duty and Rocky Creek are my 2 against the field.

I love Houblon Des Obeaux but unfortunately he's too high in the weights after his win at Ascot. I also think  that with the way he jumps and the amount of stamina he has that he's a future national winner. That's for another thread though, can still see him plugging on in an attritional race like this to get a place.
Report judorick November 29, 2013 6:33 PM GMT
no, not just you
Report FOYLESWAR November 29, 2013 7:13 PM GMT
like the rsa winner lord windermere  off a mark of 154 here, has a progressive profile  and placed in grade 1 and 2s novices chases over shorter  he seemed to relish the step up in distance in the rsa and the likely strong pace in  the henessey  should be ground could be softer but won on gd to soft at the ,trainer has had the race in mind since last season and he is lightly raced over fences having had 6 runs and never out of the 1st 3 and open to more improvement this season .
merry king looks on an upward curve and could be best of the lower weighted runners and appeals each way .
selection ., lord windermere 1pt win ,merry king 1 pt each way
Report festivalfanatic November 29, 2013 7:14 PM GMT
Far too hard for the likes of me. I've had a little bit EW on Invictus and Merry King but it won't change my lifestyle if they lose!
Report buddeliea November 29, 2013 7:17 PM GMT
With you there FF,im on Hadrians Approach fwiw. No life changing here either,but if he wins I wont say no to some Cheltenham money.
Reckon hes the winner if he jumps ok, problem is he often don't!!
Report FELTFAIR November 29, 2013 7:37 PM GMT
No strong feelings but will have a shilling e-w on Hadrian`s Approach and Loch Ba(didn`t take the 42 when the market was at 109% Cry)
Report slowerthanjohn November 29, 2013 8:00 PM GMT
Judorick knows best as usualWhoops
Report ThunderRoad November 29, 2013 8:49 PM GMT
Will be surprised if Lord Windermere wins this. Culloty swerved Down Royal earlier in the month because the ground was yielding, with good ground likely tomorrow, it can't suit him? Jumping and staying the distance aren't certain either.
Report judorick November 29, 2013 8:55 PM GMT
wtf did I say? Confused
Report dunlaying November 29, 2013 9:28 PM GMT
Terminal ,he is overpriced at a general 50/1.
Any drying of the ground should help his cause.
Report mac99 November 29, 2013 9:38 PM GMT
Think Lord windermere will stay for sure , in fact he improved for the step up in trip when winning the RSA   over 25 furlongs in March   ,  his pedigree  is packed with stamina  , don't know about the suitability of the ground  but the   three miles two  plus distance is a big plus  imo
Report Giddy November 29, 2013 10:22 PM GMT
Hadrians Approach must have a huge engine as his jumping has been dire.  Must go very close if jumping well, but I just cant see it.
Having said that I'm siding with another who's jumping badly let him down last season,Houblon Des Obeaux. Jumped well enough at Ascot on his reappearance
and  a repeat of that should hopefully see him in the mix. Closely matched with Rocky Creek but double the odds.Slightly worrying that Aidan Coleman has chosen Katenko

If anyone's interested my mates own Baile Anrai running in the Rehearsal at Newcastle tomorrow. Got blinkers on for the first time and Skelton has said his absolutely flying at home
and expecting him to run a big race
Report Steamship November 29, 2013 10:33 PM GMT
I'm certainly interested Giddy I backed his winner yesterday and I have just looked at him on here and there is a lot of money for him. Possible Pricewise
Report Giddy November 29, 2013 10:48 PM GMT
He picked up a leg injury while with Ian Williams and it wasn't noticed by the stable. He ran twice more with the Injury,hence the poor showings
They took him off Williams and put him with Skelton
Harry has ridden him in most of his races and he's saying that he has never been better. The boy's who own him know Jack about racing but they do
lump on if they thing his going to run a big one
Just passing on what I'v heard Steamship.
Good luck mate
Report Can't Catch Me November 29, 2013 11:03 PM GMT
After Denman's two Hennessy wins, Paul knows all about landing the big prize at Newbury and, in Saturday's runner Rocky Creek, he sees many similarities to that great chaser...

I have been lucky enough to land the Hennessy three times as a trainer and twice as a jockey, and my runner this year, Rocky Creek, is not unlike my dual winner Denman in appearance.

He is nearly the size of that bruiser, and as big as a tank.

In fact, let's hope that we will be calling Rocky Creek the "New Tank" just after 3pm on Saturday afternoon.

And I think that he has everything you look for in a Hennessy horse.

The only negative is that I wish the ground was slower. I have heard some question his lack of experience in big fields, but that is often the case with second-season chasers, as so many of the novice chases cut up.

He fits into the right rating category for the race these days - and I would hope that by the end of the season he is rated higher than his current mark of 151 - is a second-season chaser with more than a touch of class, who gallops, and jumps well in the main.

And he is fit enough, having had two racecourse gallops. And they were fair pieces of work, too, with pretty decent hurdlers. Okay, I'll tell you their names. He did separate pieces of racecourse work over 2m with Celestial Halo and Black River, and I liked what I saw.

I don't think that he will be beaten for lack of fitness. I have done as much as I possibly can have with him, bar a run.

Draw a line through his Aintree run - the ground was too quick, and so many disappoint there after a long season that I am not losing much sleep over it - and Rocky Creek has a lot going for him. The way he progressed up until then, winning the Reynoldstown, always had me thinking of this race and he has obviously had this as a long-term target.

He has done plenty of work, has schooled at least once a week for the last two months - in the indoor school and on grass - and comes here primed to run a big race.

I am confident that he will run his race - he wouldn't in the line-up if I wasn't - but whether that will be good enough we will see.

I hope and pray it is good enough because I would like nothing better than to win this race for the David Johnson and Andy Stewart families, for obvious reasons.

There is no end of serious rivals, but if I had to pick one horse out among the opposition it would be Our Father.

I am sure that David Pipe will have him fit and firing for this race for similar reasons to me - it's a massive prize and the horse is also part-owned by the family of the late David Johnson - and first time up is the time to catch him. It wouldn't surprise me in the least were he to prove a very well-handicapped horse off 147.

In many ways, if Rocky Creek doesn't win the Hennessy, then I hope the Pipe yard, with their long association with David, will be leading the winner in tomorrow afternoon.
Report Steamship November 29, 2013 11:05 PM GMT
Thanks Giddy I wish I could give you the winner of the Hennessey but I don't have a clue. Ive backed Cape Tribulation and Opening Batsman because I follow those stables ut as for the winner I'm stuck.
Report Navel-Gazer November 30, 2013 12:27 AM GMT
Looks like Shockster's already stolen my thunder but I think Terminal is capable of providing a surprise at 50/1 - he was travelling well in the RSA Chase until a 'stopper' about 6f from home looked to put him out of it, yet he recovered and ran on quite strongly - another 2f and he could well have won it...even allowing for Boston Bob's blunder at the last.

I know it wasn't a vintage renewal of that race but he could be well treated off 144.
Report sc1883 November 30, 2013 7:16 AM GMT
At the weights, the horse to take out of the RSA is Hadrian's Approach. With Nico's claim he is basically running off 141, the lad schools him everyday and the cheekpieces should sharpen his jumping up which apart from one mistake last time looked much better, he must go close! I also agree about terminal, 50/1 is an insult and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him bang in with a chance 2 out.
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! November 30, 2013 9:02 AM GMT
People backing terminal should realise their balance situation will be in terminal decline.

There is a piece of form to suggest even if he turns up on its best form it will not win.

Hope you find that before you lose all your cash.
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 30, 2013 9:14 AM GMT
is weighted to run as well as lord windermere
Report buddeliea November 30, 2013 9:55 AM GMT
Tizzards are a canny old lot,although it looks a doubtful stayer to me,they are quit bullish about Theatre Guide,gonna chuck a bit on him at big odds.

Think terminal is overpriced,possible dark horse.
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 30, 2013 9:59 AM GMT
such a wide open race budd, reminds me of the carruthers race, no real top class 2nd season novices who could win a gold cup and plenty of the old guard in the mix.
Report buddeliea November 30, 2013 10:07 AM GMT
yes mate,its a real good Fascinating race with so many that could win. A profit in this one would be a bonus alright.
Think I would be happy with a run for my money and a bit of excitement,and probably close my eyes every time Hadrians Approach jumps!! He is really well in though.
Report Stevie Gerrard November 30, 2013 10:29 AM GMT
The 2 horses best in on my figures are Highland Lodge and Hadrian's Approach and I've had a few quid on the both. GL all
Report sintonian November 30, 2013 12:09 PM GMT
That's a pretty bullish from PFN. Stable flying. Let's hope he is right. Loch Ba to snatch 4th Excited

What a day in prospect, good luck all.
Report ReaseHeath November 30, 2013 1:03 PM GMT
finally got off the fence and gone for

Lord Windermere 10/1 ew with ew saver on Opening Batsman at 50/1.

Good luck!
Report FatoteSport November 30, 2013 1:25 PM GMT
I'm going to have a bit on Katenko at 20s
Report Stevie Gerrard November 30, 2013 3:10 PM GMT
cracking race, wd winners.
Report mac99 November 30, 2013 3:20 PM GMT
Well done winners , back to soft ground handicaps  for Lord windermere ,smart operator  Mr henderson , Rocky ran a great race as well  , probably would have got there on soft ground , but who knows
Report duffy November 30, 2013 3:23 PM GMT
loads were still travelling turning in weren't they, invictus came there full of running but got tired, highland lodge ran well enough but couldn't shake them off on that ground....very good winner though, could even afford to bungle the last.
Report Stevie Gerrard November 30, 2013 3:28 PM GMT
Hadrian's Approach jumping let him down again, considering he'd beat Theatre Guide 9l lto then you'd have to think he could have gone close but you cant be sure. Lord Windemere did get quite badly hampered but was well enough beaten in the end. First 2 home look about 160 horses.
Report sc1883 November 30, 2013 3:30 PM GMT
glad I had a saver on triolo! at least hadrians will have another day to come good
Report duffy November 30, 2013 3:32 PM GMT
H Lodge surprised me keeping on for 4th, took my eye off of him when they got him and assumed he'd have dropped right out of it, hopefully the welsh national and heavy ground next.
Report JOCI Club November 30, 2013 3:52 PM GMT
Trends analysis:

Rocky Creek 90% 2nd
Lord Windermere 89%
Invictus 77%

Backed to win only. Sad
Report sintonian November 30, 2013 5:32 PM GMT
Cracking shout at 70's Shockster. Someone else put him up too but I can't remember who. Nice one.

Rocky Creek ... think he may have won if the ground was softer tbh but nevertheless he ran a great race. Can he do a What A Friend and follow up with a win in the Lexus? Nothing of Denmans calibre in the race this year though.


Highland Lodge ran a good race for 4th but was beaten 13 lengths in the end and was receiving weight from the 3 horse in front of him. I know he prefers Softer ground but I can't have him for the Welsh National personally after two big efforts already this season.
Report sageform November 30, 2013 5:47 PM GMT
Just a word for Theatre Guide, yet another improvement by the Tizzards and great to see Hey Big Spender winning again at Newcastle. He wasn't far behind the first 2 and clear of the rest.
Report slowerthanjohn November 30, 2013 6:38 PM GMT
Well done winners, Shockster you were right about the Ascot but the wrong house for meCrazyCan't believe how the bookies were slashing prices!Some of the SP's were stupid.
Report brandyontherocks November 30, 2013 6:42 PM GMT
well done anyone who backed him.

No gold cup threats from that race tho.
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 30, 2013 7:26 PM GMT
Well done winners.

I had a big bet on Kantenko, still feel it would had been in the first 2.

Still i backed TD at 70 & 29 AP, sure i posted it earlier. Amazingly fast ground at newbury.
Report mange November 30, 2013 7:30 PM GMT
Prob dun Katenko good..............(you cant take the P out of a fence)...............I had a bit.................trust hes Ok.................a horse for the future.............were "handcuffed" now Ib Cry
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 30, 2013 7:34 PM GMT
I have backed him for the KG & GC, like i did last season.

My problem is i spend my whole season looking for a overpriced GC winner. Plain

But then again i backed Exotic Dancer at 750 & 1000 for those 2 races in the past.
Report ReaseHeath December 1, 2013 9:33 AM GMT
well done winners!

weights came out Nov 13 and just had a look at pricing tables in PW column on Nov 14 before I throw it out (sad I know!) - 47 runners in the tables vs 21 starters on the day - price comparison as follows



Invictus    Best Price Nov 14 8/1   SP 8/1
Rocky Creek  10/1, 8/1
Hadrian's Approach 12/1, 12/1
Our Father 12/1, 11/2
Lord Windermere 12/1, 7/1
Katenko 14/1, 20/1
Highland Lodge 14/1, 6/1
Imperial Commander 16/1, 20/1
Houblon Des Obeaux 16/1, 25/1
Triolo D'Alene 20/1, 20/1
Prince De Beauchene 20/1, 16/1
Super Duty 20/1, 14/1
Merry King 20/1 12/1 (PW selection)
Cape Tribulation 25/1, 50/1
Cloudy Too 25/1, 20/1
Opening Batsman 25/1, 25/1
Theatre Guide 33/1, 33/1
Terminal 33/1,33/1
Loch Ba 50/1, 16/1
Whodoyouthink 50/1, 100/1

Note also these are best ante-post prices and there were opportunities to back most if not all of the runners at bigger prices than SP yesterday morning (I backed Lord Windermere at 10s and Opening Batsman at 50s, not my finest hour!) plus at least two firms went 5 places each way and a couple more had free bet/money back offers for second place finisher.

I appreciate there would have been an opportunity to back your horse earlier than Nov 14 (but before knowing the weights) and some may have got nice prices about their fancy on here (liquidity?) but would seriously question the value in the antepost market for this race?
Report ReaseHeath December 1, 2013 9:35 AM GMT
^ missed out Same Difference 20/1, 33/1
Report Autocue December 1, 2013 11:14 AM GMT
Thanks for that ReaseHeath. A lot of the fun has gone out of ante-post betting due to rubbish odds that no longer take account of risks that apply to betting in advance of a race eg. injury, ground conditions, trainer form. I'm not sure why people bother and perhaps they don't much apart from a few quid here and there. You'ld need to look at liquidity to determine that though.
Report Millerracing67 December 1, 2013 5:15 PM GMT
Cracking race yest Cool
Great effort from my ew hope Rocky Creek & a gd hcap ch on soft ground awaits him, be interesting to see if he lines-up for the Welsh Nat?
Winner looks a smart young improving staying ch also & likes that gd/ish ground.
The A King horse travelled like a gd horse for most of the race only to run out of gas after 2 out, very gd 1st run back after time off, looks to be on a very gd mark providing he goes on from this run.
Wd winners Cool nice price considering it was the stable jocks pick.
Report shockster December 1, 2013 9:12 PM GMT
just back in Yorkshire after a cracking weekend at Newbury.  Nice to have the winner and I would recommend this meeting to anyone should you get the chance.  Have also backed Triolo at big prices for the National but think the hcp mark is now likely to be blown, however may still get a nice weight if Long Run goes for it.
Report FELTFAIR December 2, 2013 5:03 PM GMT
Wouldn`t count the first two out of the Gold Cup just yet.
Report shockster December 3, 2013 12:24 PM GMT
2008 Hennessy winner Madison Du Berlais has died of colic.  Always thought he was a good honest horse who never got the recognition for 2008-2009 season.  Won the Levy Board chase from Denman and then the Totesport Bowl at Aintree where he was about to beat Denman again but Denman fell.   I am not in any way saying Madison was better than Denman, before anyone pipes up, but he was on those 2 days. RIP
Report duffy December 3, 2013 1:02 PM GMT
RIP, another good old stick.
Report judorick December 3, 2013 4:22 PM GMT
Invictus badly injured won't race again poor thing
Report FELTFAIR March 2, 2014 11:39 AM GMT
FELTFAIR
Date Joined: 01 Jun 10 Add contact | Send message When: 02 Dec 13 17:03 Joined: Date Joined: 01 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 2,988 | Blogger: FELTFAIR's blog
Wouldn`t count the first two out of the Gold Cup just yet.

Will the Nicholl`s horse be the next to enter the fray alongside Trio? Neither without e-w chance.
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