Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
I'll need some weather predictions first. I'm thinking that things could get softer, which means i'll have a small stake on Chief Barker at 8/1. The trainers title is in the bag, so does Toormore really need another run ?
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 61
|
By:
I have backed Pinzolo eachway at 7/1. Despite the margin of victory last time out, he had no clear run and was quite impressive. He also handles Soft ground well.
If you have read the owner's interview Graeme about Toormore it seems they are only running because they want their horse to finish as the top 2yo for the season which currently belongs to War Command. Snow Sky has been supplemented as he was massively impressive on Heavy ground last time out but the two horses in behind have been beaten since and Stoute hasn't a particularly good record in this race I believe? Correct me if I am wrong. Century was supplemented too and could be anything, AOB has won 3 of the last 4 RP Trophys but it was just a maiden and need to prove he likes the ground. He probably will being by Montjeu but still, he is 7/2. |
|
By:
i don't buy all the stuff about toormore... the owner said the horse was bouncing 2 weeks ago so this is a group 1 race and they want to run what is wrong with that??
|
|
By:
Nothing Harry. I found his comments odd tbh. If you had backed him for the Guineas next year im not sure you'd want to run him in this race however where it is likely to be a strong test of stamina on Soft ground.
|
|
By:
yes but really sint that is what it comes down to people have backed it for the guineas and are pocket talking...
the horse is clearly well as the owner said and this looks a weak group 1 on paper it must be remembered camelot did the double so it isn't a negative him running and he is obviously well...it has to be remembered this is a good prize in its own right. |
|
By:
They want it to finish as top 2y/o ? ....i'm not one for these sort of bragging rights. I don't even rate the 2000 guineas as something to rush a horse for, let alone a RP trophy. The horse has still to come into himself, and i think if it's soft they would be better putting him away. Before i get scoffed at for my guineas comment, i think the races in the latter part of the season are the best ones to win. That's my opinion.
|
|
By:
maybe they feel it is a prize not worth turning down and fits in well with the horses education??
|
|
By:
We will see what happens. His last 2y/o race was the same date as Toronados, and they are both similar in size and scope. I hope it pisses it down and they take him out. If it really pisses it down, then Chief B might have a chance. I've had a small bet on him for the derby at 33/1. He has scope for plenty of improvement over 1 1/2 m. I can see one or both being sold. Varian has a good horse in there who won lto. I think Mastercrasftman progeny will really go onto good things in the coming years. He was tough and robust himself.
|
|
By:
personally until we see whether toormore is a runner its hard to play...as admirable as chief barker is i have my doubts he is up to this sort of grade...just isn't for me unless saturday proves me wrong...he would exceed my expectations if he got in the 3 here
i have been waiting all year for some cut in the ground for somewhat and i have down as an overlay here at 8-1 he should not be underestimated in the context of this race the varian horse is improving fast but i have to say i think okalahoma city is just a mere listed horse so am happy to watch him win at the skinny 7-2 the others with promise are maidens so are hard to judge from a betting angle |
|
By:
I have backed Toormore for the Guineas, however, I've not backed War Command or Kingsman for it and if any of those were destined to run on Saturday I'd call it an equally stupid decision.
|
|
By:
earlier comments weren't aimed at you figgis...
out of interest why would you see saturdays weak group 1 as a problem??...horse is well and looks a good opportunity to cement himself at the top of the guineas betting if he is good as people think he is he should win this well... goodwood was rain soaked ground was it not?? |
|
By:
Harry, it's one thing getting the mile next May but entirely different expecting a speedy 2yo to get it at this stage on stamina sapping ground. I don't see how the RPT can be considered a suitable target for a Guineas prospect. Camelot did the double but he was always seen as more of a Derby prospect, the Guineas was a bonus and as things turned out he ran in a very weak Guineas. I don't think Toormore has any realistic pretensions to being a middle distance horse and don't see what is to be gained for a horse with a potentially good future next year, even if he was to beat this moderate opposition.
|
|
By:
ok fair enough looks like the ground is going to ride soft so maybe they will pass it over...fair comments about camelot...
if it were good though figgis i see no reason why the creature shouldn't run against this bunch...a good opportunity and if he is as well as they are saying he is, it would be a good education for him against mediocre opposition... i for one wanted to see it, just to see how good he is from a handicapping point of view, we would of got a good line through the johnson horse but suppose they will pass it over anyway as i said to you before i have my own questions to answer with the horse... as can't get an angle on him myself |
|
By:
Harry, I have him on the same mark as I had Dawn Approach after his Dewhurst win, but that's just me. Even if I'm right it doesn't mean he's automatically going to win the Guineas next year, I had New Approach slightly higher than Dawn Approach but he found one too good in the end, some even go backwards over the winter. For me, a good win might just consolidate my opinion of him but I'd rather an element of doubt remain than see him having a hard race.
|
|
By:
fair enough i don't have him that good for reasons we have talked about...i don't have many 2 year being that good this year in fact i think they are a poor bunch...if toormore's rating by the racing post and even yourself are believed then he has legitimate claims in getting his hands on the guineas because there really isn't much depth
i have to say just to not after time but i like berkshire as an individual and is my guineas pick as we speak and a rag who probably won't run anjal who i get the feeling has had his problems but i like him...but i won't be playing till the day because a lot of horses have questions hanging over them and i can't make a book around a lot of horses who i don't know are running and vice versa in regards backing the ones i like |
|
By:
Toormore and Chief Barker have same connections and it would seem strange to run them both. My guess is that the latter will run and the former will be put away for next season presumably for the Guineas as he currently does not have a Derby entry.
We`ll all know on Thursday. |
|
By:
It's different owners within the same syndicate.
|
|
By:
Sintonian, I just watched that clip of Pinzolo and it was an impressive pick up considering how he had to wait. The only thing i noticed watching the video the 2nd time round is it looks like he will win by a cosy half a length and then appears to idle and allow the 2nd horse to only finish a nose behind. Potentially it was the camera angle which isn't perfect. However his disrupted passage and the fact that he had to wait for a gap made it look like a performance that needed to be marked up
Have also backed Toormore for the Guineas, I had that Curragh performance as being top notch potentially the best of any 2 year old by some distance, be more than happy if he didn't run on saturday, although I don't think it looks a strong race at all. |
|
By:
@Harry, at this stage and its an early opinion but I agree, there might be some lurkers that will only run at three but not a great deal outside of the Coolmore two, Kingman and Toormore. Maybe this race will throw up a really good performance from someone.
|
|
By:
Harry, not sure how you have come to the conclusion this is a weak race. Century has run once and Won, he has the same profile as Camelot & Kingsbarns before they Won the race. Kingston Hill is 2/2 and an impressive winner of a Group 3 last time out. Pinzolo is also 2/2 and again Won well last time out. The two horses he beat in his maiden run at Newmarket today so you would expect his form to be boosted. And we then have Somewhat who run close to Berkshire last time out.
I take the complete opposite view tbh and think this might be a decent renewal of the race for a change. Lots of the have stamina laden pedigrees which Toormore does not. I could see him getting beaten if the going is Soft. |
|
By:
Toormore is trading at 5/1 on here. I suspect he won't run. He is not really bred to win at a mile on soft ground as a 2yo.
|
|
By:
Yup, he's bigger than 5/1 now, and the other Hannon horse is a big number than i'd like also. You can deduce one of a few things from these prices i.e training, put away etc...i wouldn't be suprised if these 2 will be purchased by the grey silks, and put away.
|
|
By:
Sudden Wonder just hacked up at Newmarket to boost Pinzolo's form.
|
|
By:
I really liked Pinzolo when it won last time
|
|
By:
I'll have to have a look at this Sudden wonder video. Final declerations today, assume no Toormore turning up because of the ground.
|
|
By:
@sint when pinzola is a 4-1 shot for a group 1 on the back of winning a minor conditions race beating mere 85 rated horses it tells me it is weak group 1...like i said as much as i feel the varian horse is a nice type the horse he beat at newmarket is listed class at best
yes there are some potentially nice long term projects who have won maidens and the race might unearth a derby type but on paper it looks a weak affair for group 1 standard |
|
By:
Hannon on Toormore
Richard Hannon said on his website: "We have decided to run Chief Barker and not Toormore, who will now be put away until next year when he will have a Guineas preparation. Toormore is all class but his speed would be blunted by soft ground." will keep you warm over the cold winter months figgis |
|
By:
Confidence high in Pinzolo camp
Pinzolo was backed for the Racing Post Trophy on Wednesday, into 4-1 (from 6), and trainer Charlie Appleby said: "You don't come across horses like him very often and we're confident of a good performance." must be good one the trainer says so |
|
By:
Thanks, Harry.
|
|
By:
do you like anything here figg?? a lot at short prices here with questions to answer...
|
|
By:
Too difficult for me, harry. Somewhat clearly tops my ratings here based on his Listed win over 7f and the ground will suit, but even though the Royal Lodge contained some good horses I wasn't impressed with it as a race and the actual strength of the form. Of the runners with solid mile form I reckon Kingston Hill sets the standard but it's not a very high standard and I think he's vulnerable to an improver. I'll just be watching with interest.
|
|
By:
fair enough agree i think the royal lodge was a messy affair as well... have put a line through it with the rag finishing so close...i like somewhat here at what i believe to be a fair price 8-1 i think he is going to improve for cut in the ground my main concern for him is getting home but am forced to chance it at the price as feel he is going to improve for the ground...the improvers are lurking but am not that taken by aidens horse
agree though very difficult |
|
By:
Yes, I think if Somewhat can replicate his 7f form over the mile at this stage then it'll take a very good horse to beat him so the price is tempting. I don't really know what to make of his Royal Lodge showing, on the face of it there was no disgrace in getting narrowly beaten by Berkshire but as you've pointed out the race as a whole doesn't stack up and neither does the time. Personally I don't see the way the race was run as a plausible excuse. Maybe the firmer ground didn't help him, as his very best form was with cut and his action points to softer ground suiting him better.
|
|
By:
ye that is the problem will he translate over the mile...been nagging me for a few days...its no problem i will only play come the day but holds me back a tad...the other problem with him is the o'brien second string who i think will take him on up front, so not ideal...he himself is a big price considering the horse he beat 8 lengths won a maiden yesterday
am talking myself out of the bet fcking game |
|
By:
Harry, the trainer is a negative for me so I'd require a bigger price than I would if trained by some others.
|
|
By:
trainer the same for me totally agree
 always trying though figgis always trying |
|
By:
Any ideas about the Coolmore trio and who rides Johann Strauss? My gut feeling is he is a much better horse than his two questionable rides suggests. I doubt he is the a pacemaker.
|
|
By:
I thought Somewhat looked uncomfortable on the ground and track last time, you could see him changing his legs a few times. Doncaster with cut should suit ideally and I wouldn't be worried about the trip. His Newbury win puts him 4lb ahead of Kingston Hill and Chief Barker on my figures and they in turn are another 4 ahead on Pinzolo but that one had to wait for his run last time is value for more. Not sure about aiden's ones as haven't got figures for them.
I think Somewhat could be worth a bet but his figure despite being the best is only just about listed class on my ratings so I'm inclined to just watch. |
|
By:
well more like G3 rather than listed I should say
|
|
By:
Wouldn't surprise me if Kingston Hill improved again and posts a good figure on saturday. Definitely think I'll be leaving the race alone, don't like 2yo races at the best of times.
|