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brigust1
22 Oct 13 13:01
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Date Joined: 07 Dec 01
| Topic/replies: 13,129 | Blogger: brigust1's blog
Does anyone else think this has a good chance at 50/1? Not the sort of race I look at but European horses are doing well against what looks like a mediocre Aussie bunch.

In betting order :

7/2  It's a Dundeel
7/2  Fiorente
7/2  Puissance de Lune
8/1  Long John
12/1 Happy Trails
18/1 Green Moon
20/1 Super Cool
25/1 Foreteller
25/1 Shamus Award
33/1 Masked Marvel
40/1 Rekindled Interest
50/1 Seville
50/1 Side Glance
66/1 Mull of Killough

Many of these raced in the UK before going to Oz.

Seville    120
Mull of Killough 116
Side Glance  115
Masked Marvel  112
Fiorente    108
Green Moon  106.

It's a Dundeel was beaten last time out by the French horse Reliable Man rated 115 by 2.75 lengths getting 8lbs. That puts that run on 106 approx.
Down the field or already beaten by It's a Dundeel are Pussance de Lune, Happy Trails, Green Moon and Foreteller.
Happy Trails had already recently beaten Fiorente, Super Cool and Rekindled Interest.
Seville has just won a Gr handicap beating Julienas, rated 100, by half a length.

European horses are doing well in Australia at the moment with the first three in the Melbourne Cup last year and Dandino running a blinder the other day.

I think Side Glance at 50/1 and Mull of Killough at 66/1 are worth a small punt.

They appear to have the highest ratings overall with Seville rated over 2 years ago and Reliable Man's beating of It's a Dundeel is current.
Pause Switch to Standard View Side Glance - Cox Plate 50/1?
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Report sintonian October 22, 2013 3:50 PM BST
Eachway or Win, Brigust?
Report Shiekh Me Hand October 22, 2013 4:21 PM BST
Hey Brig,

Last time out It's a Dundeel actually beat the previously unbeaten "seuperstar" Atlantic Jewel in the "Underwood" at Caulfield.. amongst others behind him were, Happy Trails, Puisaance De Lune and the ex euro Sea Moon who won well a coulpe of weeks ago.

I don't mind Puissance Du Lune to reverse the placings and thin going from Bossy to Ben Melham is actually a positive (bossy rode it like it was Frankel!)
Don't discount the 3 yr old..Long John, Sheikh Mo, Snowden and McEvoy...
Good Luck with your selections
Report brigust1 October 22, 2013 4:31 PM BST
EW Sin. Nothing serious. Terrible racing this week considering ground as well so thought I'd give it a look. Coming rapidly to the end of my season and I always give the jumps a couple of months to get into gear.

I've no idea about the Aussie form Sheikh but the European horses seem to be doing quite well. It isn't something I do seriously. The forum isn't what it used to be otherwise I wouldn't have even needed to bother posting.
Did you see the note on the other thread about accommodation?
Report brigust1 October 22, 2013 5:16 PM BST
I've probably thrown a nifty away Sin. I've had a pony on Side and a pony on Mull with 3 6 5.
Report mac99 October 22, 2013 6:25 PM BST
I do think Side Glance has a chance of placing from  his  draw  in one stall , the market leaders are both drawn wide  so may  not be  able to impose themselves on the Race early on  , this  could play to the advantage of Side Glance  who probably does not get a flat out ten furlongs  but has plenty of tactical speed  , Mull of  Killough  may be more suited  to a Track like Flemington and  soft ground   . but could not  rule him out  completely  gl
Report mac99 October 22, 2013 6:51 PM BST
According to OZ forum  there is a lot of rain about  so maybe  MOK does come into as well   from his draw in Stall four ?
Report brigust1 October 22, 2013 6:57 PM BST
Thanks Mac, cheered me up. Hope you are right.
Report Desmond Orchard October 23, 2013 12:02 PM BST
Isn't Side Glance one of those beasts whose rating was artificially enhanced in order to give Frankel his record rating?Mischief
Report brigust1 October 23, 2013 5:02 PM BST
I'm not referring to Timeform ratings Do I was working to Official ratings. But you are right and your maths will tell you that Frankel, even with Side Glance's supposedly inflated rating, still never won easily enough for him to be rated the best horse ever.

But tht has never prevented me from backing a horse when I think it has a chance. I backed Excelebration in his 3 Group 1 wins as well.
Report judorick October 24, 2013 3:49 PM BST
who's got prices on this now thanks

Happy Trails and Puissance de Lune my two
Report brigust1 October 24, 2013 6:08 PM BST
PDL is 4s with Hills & Corals, 365 are 12s the other one.
Report judorick October 24, 2013 7:44 PM BST
cheers brig
Report brigust1 October 25, 2013 11:23 AM BST
P rice wise going for MoK. Good write up in the RP today.
Report mac99 October 25, 2013 5:55 PM BST
yes , MOK supported by PW , small bet  ew  on it  but has to beat this one... imo
Report mac99 October 25, 2013 5:56 PM BST
Fiorenti realaxing by  the beach Wink
Report judorick October 25, 2013 5:59 PM BST
Fiorente drawn 15, enough to put me off
Report mac99 October 25, 2013 6:03 PM BST
Funny enough on firmish ground  I think he would have his work cut out , but on an easier surface  where they may  not go hell for leather in the  first couple of furlongs , wishful thinking?
maybe .
Report judorick October 25, 2013 6:26 PM BST
I've trebled my bet on Puissance
Report mac99 October 25, 2013 6:31 PM BST
Horse are only ,'spot on '  a couple of times in a Season imo  , that is half the battle with them.To my mind Fiorente  Looks   primed to the minute , but  ,you are a formidable player  Judo  and  I  note your confidence GL
Report judorick October 25, 2013 6:43 PM BST
to be clear that's 3 points win Puissance de Lune and 2 points win Happy Trails

dangers Fiorente and It's a Dundeel but draw done both them

just crossing fingers
Report judorick October 26, 2013 8:05 AM BST
cannot fecking believe that Angry
Report bazzar October 26, 2013 9:00 AM BST
What can you NOT believe, JUDORICK?
Some of us don't know what won.
Report AFL October 26, 2013 9:15 AM BST
15      1st     SHAMUS AWARD    
2      2nd      HAPPY TRAILS          
3      3rd     FIORENTE
Report AFL October 26, 2013 9:16 AM BST
The maiden won.
Report AFL October 26, 2013 9:21 AM BST
http://www.abc.net. au

Three-year-old colt Shamus Award has caused a boilover in the Cox Plate, winning Australasia's biggest weight-for-age contest to register his first race win.

The Danny O'Brien-trained colt was originally an emergency for the $3 million Cox Plate and only gained a start when race favourite Atlantic Jewel was scratched on the day of the barrier draw.

Apprentice jockey Chad Schofield made all the running, taking advantage of the horse's light weight of 49.5kg to lead all the way and win by a nose from the fast-finishing Happy Trails.

Last year's Melbourne Cup runner-up Fiorente held on for third in a great trial for this year's Cup after taking the race up to Shamus Award.

Schofield, the son of top Sydney jockey Glyn Schofield, became the first apprentice to win the Cox Plate since Brent Thompson aboard Fury's Order in 1975.

It was also the first Group 1 win for the 19-year-old, something he was desperately keen to capture.

"I've been wanting to get a Group One really badly and what a way to do it in the Cox Plate," he said after the race.

Schofield didn't have a ride in the Cox Plate until Shamus Award earned a start when champion mare Atlanta Jewel suffered a tendon injury on Wednesday and was subsequently retired.

He was grateful of the opportunity to ride the colt who had run a fast finishing third in the Caulfield Guineas.

"He jumped really fast and I let him find the rail," Schofield said of the race.

"I knew I had it when I shook off Fiorente and he was just so strong to the line.

"About 100m from the finish line I had a look around and saw Happy Trails flying so I wasn't sure if we were going to hang on."

It was the first Cox Plate triumph for Danny O'Brien who had set the horse for the race early in the spring.

He remained confident going into the race despite the horse yet to register a win in its previous nine starts.

Shamus Award was forced back in the Caulfield Guineas and flew home for third but after drawing barrier three in the Cox Plate the plan was to always go forward.

"Today we got a chance to go out and make our own luck and show how good this colt is," O'Brien said.

"He could have easily been a Guineas winner and a Cox Plate winner, but we're pretty happy to take the Cox Plate."
Report brigust1 October 26, 2013 9:39 AM BST
Unlucky Jud. CW didn't give Side Glance the greatest of rides, missed the kick pushed him up too hard then strangled him for 6 furlong. May have been placed but as I thought beforehand it looked like a rubbish race for Group 1.
Report judorick October 26, 2013 9:55 AM BST
cheers Brig

just a bit sick of getting chinned what with this one (averaged 15.5 for good money), Zipp beaten shd yesterday (got 10 early doors), Modern Tutor the other day, Code of Honour 25/1 btn shd for good money.... have had nice touches too but there's large chunks gone missing for the want of less than half a length combined

Sad
Report mac99 October 26, 2013 11:30 AM BST
Great run by one of Judos  selections  Happy Trails , ground officially good by race four  , so no respire for those drawn wide  early on ,  Fiorente wearing  Blinkers , was lit up  from the off ,  might have been better to save a bit of gas for the  home stretch,  but can't say it was a bad ride  as the Horse  finished a good third .Big can't agree it was a poor race , far from it  imo
Report mac99 October 26, 2013 11:30 AM BST
respite*
Report brigust1 October 26, 2013 12:59 PM BST
You may be proved right Mac but a 3 year old maiden won from a horse whose total runs in Group 1's so far his price was 25, 80, 13, 40, 40, 40, 60 and 14. The third horse home Fiorente his trainer said before the race 'I think it's quite funny we can be one of the favourites for the Cox Plate and also the Melbourne Cup because they are totally different races'. This suggests to me in total that the race wasn't a great race. That doesn't mean some of the runners failed to produce their proper form but the reason I fancied Side Glance in particular was because it didn't look a strong race beforehand.
Report brigust1 November 2, 2013 9:33 AM GMT
I know it's after timing but I hope some of you guys cashed in. He was 18.5 on here for a win and 4 for a place. Nice.
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