Soft Falling Rain and soft ground

Looks as though they're resigned to the state of the ground and he's a runner. The Gp2 sprint should shed some light on the state of the ground on the straight track, more often the ground rides quicker on the straight and hopefull it will tomorrow.

I was really impressed with Soft Falling Rain last time and he tops my figures for this race. Receiving only 3lbs I have Dawn Approach 2lbs behind him. For me there is a question mark that DA will even replicate his best form, let alone improve on it and he makes no appeal at the price. I can see why they've entered Top Notch Tonto for this as I don't believe he has as much to find as some might think and obviously acts on the ground, he'd be a decent price for a place but the big negative is he's just had two hard fast run races and I think his improvement has levelled off. Also, Ellison after his last race said he'd be put away for the year so this looks something of an afterthought with the race offering an opportunity probably considered too good to miss. Maybe the trainer changed his mind because the horse is so well in himself? I won't be backing him, though, due to the reason stated. Some people said Olympic Glory was an unlucky loser to Moonlight Cloud but I said at the time I thought he was heavily flattered and still hold that view.

Despite the ground being an unknown quantity for Soft Falling Rain I have to back him, hopefully the ground on the straight will be drier than expected and then he'll be a confident bet.

I think OG was flattered by that run to MC too. It was her second Group 1 in the space of a couple of weeks and 1 mile stretches her stamina. She would thump him 5 lengths over 7f. The form of the races he has actually won during his career is not all that strong either.

DA is drifting to 11/4, undecided about saving on his at the moment.

Snap Figgis. I think he has the potential to dominate the mile scene in Europe next year if they keep him in training. Would have been one of my biggest bets of the year but for the ground. Will still have a good each-way bet, but only a small percentage of what I'd have on him otherwise.

I agree, sint, Moonlight Cloud had already run her race when OG was gaining ground, the final time wasn't great compared to what she'd achieved before. It was also interesting to hear Hannon say the run came as a surprise as he hadn't been showing much at home. OG's best run as a 2yo was at Longchamp on very soft ground, he returned to the same track last time on soft ground so had no excuse in a race where the winning form only amounts to Gp2 at best. Will need a career best tomorrow.

Richard Hills on ATR just now. Describes him as a battle hardened miler, the type need. He was more sweet on Mukhadram in the Champion too. FWIW.

ThunderRoad, I think he would've looked even more impressive if they hadn't gone so hard so far from home.

agree that possibly Dawn Approach had a long hard season.

Even ignoring the apparent illness last time at Deauville, I think Figgis predicted a bounce there after fast time at Goodwood only 11 days earlier.

But a seriously tough and classy horse in the mould of Giants Causeway and Rock Of Gibraltar imo. Had a hard season as a 2yo, 6 races starting in March and ending at the Dewhurst in October. "Only" had 5 races this season where the Derby can be struck out of the form book

A nice break of 69 days since Deauville, easily prepared to forgive that run given think he is head and shoulders above these (only classic winner in the field)

Think it significant that Farhh been diverted by Godolphin to the 1m2f contest, with a minor doubt at that trip in the ground. He would have had a major chance here even against Dawn Approach. So can only assume that Jim Bolger given strong vibes to Godolphin that his horse ready to do himself justice.

Assuming that's the case, think he should be an evens or 5/4 chance. So will have to dive in headfirst for the current 11/4, win, lose or draw.

Ped, what do you class as head and shoulders above?

on this season's figures, 9lbs in hand of Olympic Glory and 15lbs of Maxios. I don't have anything notable for Soft Falling Rain

Their was me thinking that DA hasnt run anywhere near his debut this season.

I would think Farhh is running over 1m2f as they have the same owner

Agree he has the beating of OG

I make the ground a little softer on the straight than last year but still not overly soft, still unknown territory for SFR but at the price I'm prepared to take the risk.

Completely wrong about Olympic Glory, great run from Top Notch Tonto as well, pity I talked myself out of backing him to place.

Have to be careful not overrate horses on this ground, I think most aren't handling it at all and running way below their best.