Cesarewitch

As often the case, I suppose the reality lies probably somewhere in  the  middle ground.
I agree with you all that rationally the likelihood of such extraordinary improvement is vanishingly small, but I cannot dispel the feeling that something pretty unusual has occurred here!

Smoky Hill still in the Cadran at 5 day stage.....doesn't bode well for Newmarket :(

smokey hill not in the betting for cadran,hope he is coming over

will be finalising the work on this but have it down to 6 or 7 already

sometime mid weeek finalise the short list, start betting after the draw is known

Smoky Hill certainly looks like a potential blot on the handicap!

Can someone post the 5 day decs?

Nt up yet - no major shocks tho - Ted Veale the most notable absentee, Drive Time, Aaim to Prosper too

Will put em up wen i av em easy to c+p

got it down to 2 now, waiting on the final decs and draw

1    32-121    Tiger Cliff49      4    9-10    Lady Cecil50    Tom Queally     104    102    110
2     203501    Oriental Fox21 4x      5    9-10    Mark Johnston40         104    106    115
3    24-711    Thecornishcockney226    4    9-8    John Ryan40         102    81    109
4     5-5136    Chiberta King29      7    9-8    Andrew Balding71    Oisin Murphy5     102    100    109
5     111-3    Pallasator35      4    9-6    Sir Mark Prescott Bt100         100    70    115
6     01-012    Domination48J      6    9-1    C Byrnes         95    75    110
7     234122    Mutual Regard39    4    9-0    Sir Mark Prescott Bt100         94    94    114
8     612-27    Earth Amber164    4    9-0    Nicky Henderson    Kieren Fallon     94    64    111
9     116160    Broxbourne21    4    9-0    Mark Johnston40         94    77    112
10     152111    Platinum35 4x    6    9-0    Philip Kirby60         94    91    114
11     10433d0    Highland Castle49    5    8-13    David Elsworth67         93    91    114
12     13632    Clowance Estate35    4    8-13    Roger Charlton50         93    95    116
13     7-3714    Smoky Hill27    4    8-11    M Delzangles         91    81    123
14     3-2132    Lieutenant Miller73      7    8-11    Nicky Henderson    Ryan Moore     91    84    113
15     343573    Brockwell21      4    8-11    Tom Dascombe62         91    105    114
16     926624    Moidore22    4    8-10    John Quinn33         90    101    116
17     1510/8    Big Easy116    6    8-10    Philip Hobbs         90    61    113
18     32100/    Mamlook783J    9    8-9    David Pipe         89    —    —
19    14333    Seaside Sizzler34      6    8-8    Ralph Beckett78         88    103    113
20     725604    Scatter Dice13    4    8-8    Mark Johnston40         88    98    116
21     5-7324    Waterclock39    4    8-8    Roger Charlton50    Joey Haynes5     88    100    113
22     083614    Cosimo de Medici21      6    8-7    Hughie Morrison43         87    96    108
23     2-8725    Albert Bridge21    5    8-7    Ralph Beckett78         87    106    116
24     163727    Cousin Khee35    6    8-7    Hughie Morrison43         87    106    111
25     031600    Nanton21    11    8-5    Jim Goldie48         85    96    113
26     515110    Poyle Thomas35    4    8-4    Ralph Beckett78    Martin Lane     84    100    111
27     413510    Eagle Rock21 4x    5    8-4    Tom Tate50         84    96    113
28     5500/9    Recession Proof34    7    8-2    John Quinn33         82    72    93
29    461674    Taglietelle81    4    8-0    Andrew Balding71         80    111    118
30     2-5708    Sohar45    5    8-0    James Toller100         80    102    119
31     716-85    Los Nadis22    9    7-13    Jim Goldie48         79    89    100
32     421820    Flashman22    4    7-13    Richard Fahey56         79    104    116
33     10455    Sign Manual25    4    7-12    Michael Bell70         78    95    114
34     035043    Wyborne21    4    7-12    Brian Ellison44         78    65    114
35     00-550    Cloudy Spirit70J      8    7-12    Andrew Hollinshead56         78    104    112
36     19431    Swinging Hawk14 4x    7    7-12    Ian Williams38         78    82    113
37     746047    High Office21    7    7-11    Richard Fahey56         77    95    111
38     122666    Merchant Of Dubai13    8    7-11    Jim Goldie48         77    93    110
39     374023    Jonny Delta14    6    7-11    Jim Goldie48         77    93    113
40    224416    Capellanus107    7    7-10    Brian Ellison44         76    94    109
41     320570    Aleksandar21    4    7-5    Jim Goldie48         71    66    106
42     07774-    Becausewecan351      7    7-1    Brian Ellison44         67    —    94
43    542528    Keep Kicking28    6    6-13    Simon Dow         65    60    100

I like domination but at a bigger price seaside sizzler

cheers BJG.

I've had a bet on Moidore at 33/1. He may need the going slightly softer but his form from a handicapping p.o.v. looks fair to me. Gave 2lb to Well Sharp back in May and although he was beat 6 lengths, Well Sharp is now 20lb higher. Moidore is 10lb better off with Oriental Fox from their Newcastle run and he gave 13lb to Statutory who has just slammed Prescott's horse Mutual Regard (rated 95) by an easy 8 lengths at Pontefract. Whether i'm right or wrong 33/1 seems rather big to me.

an easy 14 lengths, not 8.

Short list

Lieutenant Miller
Domination
Oriental Fox
Big Easy

Have backed Lieutenant Miller ante post so far, 12/1

waiting on the draw before adding more stakes

As I have already noted, whatever you make of the merits of the Trial race, Oriental Fox undoubtedly put in a remarkable performance that day.
However, with a 5lb pull for a 5 length beating, Brockwell must have a real chance of turning the tables and yet is still twice the price!
I think he should be on your shortlist.

don't care what you think, it's not on my short list for very good reasons and I doubt it can win

I won't be backing Oriental Fox either, penalised horses have a bad record in the race

I wouldn't suggest for one moment that you (or anyone else) should care what I think!
I am only expressing an opinion. It would not be much fun if we all agreed!

Put PALLASATOR down for this race, after his eye catching seasonal comeback in the Old Borough Cup.

Jason Hart seems to be booked for Brockwell Aft, taking a useful 3lb off.  I've had a bit on.

I am sure you won't regret it Stevie G - Must be a stonking each way bet at 25/1 if he doesn't get done by the draw.

Smokey Hill and Lieutenant Miller e/w against the field for me,

good luck with your bets everyone

Brockwell won his first handicap off 68, is running off 92 on Sat. You guys fancy him for a career best?

I think a lot of the horses in the race will have won off much lower marks in the past sint, don't think that matters. As for a career best being needed then perhaps it will although I think he is overpriced on that last run and also his Goodwood run he is 4lb better off (without inc jock allowance) with Lieutenant Miller so even that gives him a reasonable chance. Course, distance and ground no problem and has run well in these big handicaps before. 25s looks a bit of value to me, I think he should be on the 14/16 to 1 mark

The  form of his last run may prove to be much better than generally believed, as I have opined at the beginning of this thread.
He has always been a progressive sort.

Yes they have Stevie. The majority of horses have progressed up the handicap.

I have added Chiberta King at 25/1 with Oisin Murphy riding. He takes off 5lb, OR 102, so will effectively be 97 witch is 1lb lower than his last handicap win. He has not ran in a handicap for over two years, all of his runs since June 11 have been mostly Listed and Group 2's. Earlier in the season he won at Royal Ascot and stayed on well. He is thoroughly exposed now but he is taking a drop in class. Last run was a Group 2 and whilst he was well beaten some of those horses who beat him that day he had previously well beat himself so im inclined to think it was a slight prep race as he had not ran for over 60 days.

Yes he is an interesting one sint, he would similar class to Aaim To Prosper who won the race off 107 last year. I think they met a couple of times and there wasn't much between them. Balding used Murphy on Highland Colori for the Ayr Gold cup too. So yes he does look one to have on your side. I may also add him in also.

do not understand the ante post money for Smoky Hill, clearly some people think he has a massive chance for some reason or other but I cannot see it and he 's a 50/1 shot on my tissue

yet he 's in single figures and a sea of blue on oddschecker

one of us has to be wrong

Wouldn't be surprised if's he's been aimed at the race Steve, Worth a pop given yard form and jockey booking imo.

Agree Judo. Think he looks ridiculously short tbh, seems to be based on the trainer saying he thinks the horse is well handicapped.

re Chilberta King:

horses that were beaten in the Doncaster Cup on their last start have won the Ces several times (3 times last 10 years) and there are much worse candidates at shorter prices in the market

OH MY GOSH omg omg...dis judorick is da best punter in da world, or any other world, know whut am sayin ? he is just da best. Nobody else in dis planet can look at da 30 runner field and say 'dis one won't win'. Peepz out there have been given awards for less. Im gonna toon in to dis race on Saturday to see who is right, in da big showdown between judos 29 horses againt da field in da 30 runner race.

The horse he beat in the Queen Alexandra aint too shabby either,Shahwardi, just a shame he has not ran since. He was runner-up in the same race the previous year to Simenon who nearly won the Ascot Gold Cup this year. Shahwardi has some other useful form to horses like Tac de Boistron who was 2nd in the Prix Du Cadran at the weekend. Of course you can pick holes in some of the form as you always can but with the 5lb claim it's worth a punt at 25/1 imo.

Draw can put a kibosh on his chance though.

yes you can definitely build an argument for the horse on lots of grounds Sint

Brockwell has a far better chance than Chiberta King imo. Balding is a target trainer and the Queen Alexandria was CK's target. The form isnt worth a hill of beans with horses rated 86 and 80 2 lengths way in 4th & 5th. They said he would be put away for the Ces after that and there he was 3 weeks later getting humped out of sight at Sandown and again at Donny. Intersting to see Jason Tart back on board Brockwell after a cracking run in the Northumberland Plate - think he would have been 2nd with another furlong. Was given too much to do at Goodwood, an indifferent ride at Ascot and returned from a 42 day break to run creditably at Newmarket, granted, given a right thumping by Oriental Fox. That "trial" race has yet to throw up the winner so a note of caution but at 20's there are worse punts.Has been well punted in the last week too. i was hoping for a monsoon and Johnny delta to slip in at the bottom but looks unlikely now

What's Murtagh booked to ride?

Oriental Fox

Shame, as I've ruled that one out, but thanks, Judorick.

Lads now NRNB, 5 places.

judorick
08 Oct 13 16:58
Joined:
27 Nov 11
| Topic/replies: 18,314 | Blogger: judorick's blog
do not understand the ante post money for Smoky Hill, clearly some people think he has a massive chance for some reason or other but I cannot see it and he 's a 50/1 shot on my tissue

yet he 's in single figures and a sea of blue on oddschecker

one of us has to be wrong



i agree can't see why they are so keen on this fellow...cannot have it under 20-1 myself very confusing indeed

Looks like being soft for sat,lot of rain forcast

Any news on possible drop outs at the final dec stage?

Swinging Hawk looks like a good big priced punt.

not sure its a runner is it follower?? been very weak on here

1 30     32-121     Tiger Cliff49     4     9-10     Lady Cecil80     Tom Queally     104     102     110
2 20     203501     Oriental Fox21 4x     5     9-10     Mark Johnston41     Johnny Murtagh     104     106     115
3 34     24-711     Thecornishcockney226 t     4     9-8     John Ryan40     Stevie Donohoe     102     81     109
4 1     5-5136     Chiberta King29 p     7     9-8     Andrew Balding67     Oisin Murphy5     102     100     109
5 7     111-3     Pallasator35     4     9-6     Sir Mark Prescott Bt75     Luke Morris     100     70     115
6 16     01-012     Domination48J     6     9-1     C Byrnes     F M Berry     95     75     110
7 5     612-27     Earth Amber164     4     9-0     Nicky Henderson     Richard Hughes     94     64     111
8 22     116160     Broxbourne21     4     9-0     Mark Johnston41     William Buick     94     77     112
9 21     152111     Platinum35 4xp     6     9-0     Philip Kirby43     Russ Kennemore     94     91     114
10 2     13632     Clowance Estate35     4     8-13     Roger Charlton56     Graham Lee     93     95     116
11 14     7-3714     Smoky Hill27     4     8-11     M Delzangles     Umberto Rispoli     91     81     123
12 32     3-2132     Lieutenant Miller73     7     8-11     Nicky Henderson     Ryan Moore     91     84     113
13 17     343573     Brockwell21 h1     4     8-11     Tom Dascombe68     Jason Hart3     91     105     114
14 15     926624     Moidore22     4     8-10     John Quinn33     Daryl Byrne5     90     101     116
15 36     1510/8     Big Easy116     6     8-10     Philip Hobbs     Jamie Spencer     90     61     113
16 35     14333     Seaside Sizzler34 tv     6     8-8     Ralph Beckett67     Jim Crowley     88     103     113
17 18     725604     Scatter Dice13 v1     4     8-8     Mark Johnston41     Silvestre De Sousa     88     98     116
18 6     5-7324     Waterclock39 p     4     8-8     Roger Charlton56     Joey Haynes5     88     100     113
19 19     083614     Cosimo de Medici21     6     8-7     Hughie Morrison46     Paul Hanagan     87     96     108
20 8     2-8725     Albert Bridge21     5     8-7     Ralph Beckett67     Wayne Lordan     87     106     116
21 27     163727     Cousin Khee35     6     8-7     Hughie Morrison46     Andrea Atzeni     87     106     111
22 31     031600     Nanton21     11     8-5     Jim Goldie43     Barry McHugh     85     96     113
23 4     515110     Poyle Thomas35 p     4     8-4     Ralph Beckett67     Martin Lane     84     100     111
24 33     413510     Eagle Rock21 4xp     5     8-4     Tom Tate50     Andrew Mullen     84     96     113
25 3     5500/9     Recession Proof34 p     7     8-2     John Quinn33     Connor King5     82     72     93
26 28     461674     Taglietelle81     4     8-0     Andrew Balding67     David Probert     80     111     118
27 24     2-5708     Sohar45     5     8-0     James Toller100     Cathy Gannon     80     102     119
28 13     716-85     Los Nadis22     9     8-0     Jim Goldie43     Jack Garritty7     79     89     100
29 26     421820     Flashman22     4     8-0     Richard Fahey56     Duran Fentiman     79     104     116
30 12     10455     Sign Manual25 h     4     8-0     Michael Bell68     Jimmy Quinn     78     95     114
31 25     19431     Swinging Hawk14 4x     7     8-0     Ian Williams44         78     82     113
32 9     746047     High Office21     7     8-0     Richard Fahey56     Kieran O'Neill     77     95     111
33 11     122666     Merchant Of Dubai13     8     8-0     Jim Goldie43     Joe Doyle7     77     93     110
34 23     374023     Jonny Delta14     6     8-0     Jim Goldie43     Shelley Birkett5     77     93     113
35 29     224416     Capellanus107     7     8-0     Brian Ellison50         76     94     109
36 10     320570     Aleksandar21     4     8-0     Jim Goldie43         71     66     106




horrible draw for tiger cliff

Not too clever for Lt Miller either :)

ye tough result for both

the only thing in there favour is eagle rock who will go forward early... has only one style of racing

but that is the only thing

yes some tough draws for fancied horses domination not too bad in 16 but my outside bet seaside sizzler drawn 36 I have just had 20 quid at 60 on here may well have been 600

well 25/1 Chilberta King looks big enough to have a poke with 5 places ew from stall 1

not very confident at all about Lieutenant Miller from 32

Jeez fkin shockers of draws here

decent enough draws for my two Chiberta and Moidore. Not sure Chiberta will want much rain to fall though.

only ran once on soft sint and won

yeah not worried about the rain for Chilberta

yep fair enough that was off a mark of 91. He's also won on Soft over hurdles so may be it will be OK.

Pallasator likely to go off Fav now imo given the draw. He has the same sire as Treve! Motivator, so won't mind the rain.

won't be very soft anyway, if the 8 mm predicted lands might be just on the slow side of good (was good to firm Wednesday)

very very windy up this way,so would need alot of rain to make it soft imo

The one, imho to handicap would be the Henderson/Hughes one, very hard to pin  down a mark, could have been just put away for this

Am going to caveat this post with a confession I have never picked the winner of this race. Had a few close but never the actual winner. I have had a real close look and have decided to cut it down to low draw and hurdlers who have won over 2m+ so have picked Chiberta King @25/1 and Recession Proof @ 25/1. Good luck to all.

Chilberta King  had some  hot form with Aim to Prosper back in 2012 beat him a couple of times not getting any weight , the  last time was  in september  2012 , as Aim to prosper went on to win the Ces  off the welter weight of 9.10 that year    , Chilbutra King has to be taken seriously   in this event running  off 97 when his brilliant young Jockeys allowance  is taken into account   ,

His run in the QA may be a  little misleading as he  practically pulled his way to the front  after about two miles of the race , he was tiring toward the end  of that  two mile six furlong contest  ,he should be fine over  over  18 furlongs , I like this one and  Tiger cliff  gl all
in as tough a race to solv as ever  was

solve*

I'm on Albert Bridge at 40s, a decent draw too

zilzal, as far as earth amber goes id agree its hard to handicap but it would be some effort to win a race like this after 5 starts

Thinking of taking 9 against the field! Probably a good way to lose money!!
15:50 Newmarket
   
Lieutenant Miller
WIN    Odds Increment Decrement     Stake     £0.00
   
Oriental Fox
WIN    Odds Increment Decrement     Stake     £0.00
   
Clowance Estate
WIN    Odds Increment Decrement     Stake     £0.00
   
Recession Proof
WIN    Odds Increment Decrement     Stake     £0.00
   
Brockwell
WIN    Odds Increment Decrement     Stake     £0.00
   
Earth Amber
WIN    Odds Increment Decrement     Stake     £0.00
   
Chiberta King
WIN    Odds Increment Decrement     Stake     £0.00
   
Broxbourne
WIN    Odds Increment Decrement     Stake     £0.00
   
Poyle Thomas
WIN    Odds Increment Decrement     Stake     £0.00

weather forecasters increased the amount of rain set to fall to 9.5 mm, of which 5.8 mm on Saturday before 6pm

rain woke me up tonight(mile from course)
Chucking it down.

be interesting to see the going map on Friday morning as it was good to firm at 11.30am Thursday

http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html

going now 'good' all over at 11.30am Friday

http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html

recession proof loves the rain, has a crack irish claimer on board,thrown in at the weights and is fit and fancied.drawn 3.

Good luck pmt...

bbc news forecasting LOTS of rain for East Anglia

pmt been a while,hope all is good have sent a direct message

Bloody weather Was planning on having a gd few £££ ew on Domination.
Did not want 2 see the rain coming for him
Think he would have went very close on gd fast ground.

pmt
Hope you are right!
Have been backing him steadily for six weeks now at all prices from 80 down and keeping my fingers crossed.

Like the Arc I am not sure the Ces draw will be that significant given that, in my opinion, a lot of dross was and is drawn low in the respective races. Wouldn`t be surprised to see the race develop up the middle of the track.Would still give Tiger Cliff,Big Easy,Seaside Sizzler and Lieutenant Miller good chances.

thanks tt anf aft, he had a tendon injury after the supreme than he got colic nearly died, than a hernia been a nightmare but he got dropped 6 lbs for the time off and his jockey is really good and claims 5 as well.keep the rain falling.will go hurdling afterwards.

you don't think the stables other runner has a better chance pmt?

The draw? Is the draw really a concern here? 2 mile NH races don't have a draw.

clearly you don't know the stats and this is not a NH race

Judo, I bow to your superior knowledge. I was just surprised, that's all.

Feel a little boring looking at the comments but with Recession Proof and Chiberta King myself. Slightly concerned that the young lad will do too much on CK early to hold a position from stall 1 however

How the f*** has Smoky Hill got in off 91!!!

I know stakes form can be unreliable in handicaps, but 91 looks VERY lenient.

On at 11-1.

You can tie yourself in knots attempting to analyse the effects of the draw in this or any other flat race. The draw  doesnt matter in this race. I used to think so but really, it doesnt. King Revo was drawn in 36 when only finding the mighty sergeant cecil one too good back in 2005. never can tell was similarly drawn when winning the other year. Landing Light was drawn low when he won but they came down the other side of the course so in essence he was drawn high. Its nonsense!! Which is why if the ground doesnt deteriorate as badly as some think then the 16-1 that Leiutenant Millar has gone out to could look very big this time tomorrow. I'll take him and Johnny Delta e/w at 80-1.

judo- whats ur hashtag on twitter mate.pm me if u dont mind.

With more rain forecast it could be soft ground by racetime.
If so, Pallasator would be of interest.

Pete, there is a right-hand turn at 90 degrees which makes the draw important, you don't want to be stuck wide on it as obviously you'll be covering more ground.

I really don't see the angle with chiberta king miracle stuff for me...horse cannot win off this mark

pallasator is of interest but he does tend to idle and as much as i like him he cannot be bet with confidence at the trip...a great plot this...i really don't care the ground is going against domination as think he can handle this for one race...i like him a lot...he is well in

if the french horse wins it will be the equal miracle of chiberta king and he has his ground...pure heroine for me and i will give up if either of these win... on an equal note will be recession proof who has been flogged down the years...and has nothing left

anyway a brutal affair and as a few know i am brutal but honest...

love the ces and a rag with a chance is swinging hawk even though he is in the car park...

After much deliberation and the fact that I can`t back them all I have settled on five horses more in hope than any degree of conviction.

Tiger Cliff,Big Easy,Seaside Sizzler,Lieutenant Miller and Smokey Hill.

Abuse me later.

Not having a go as I'm laying off betting (been 5 weeks now) but will be hoping Recession Proof wins for pmt

Pete, there is a right-hand turn at 90 degrees which makes the draw important, you don't want to be stuck wide on it as obviously you'll be covering more ground.

Cheers Sint. I take your point. I suppose it depends how bunched up they are when they hit the bend.
They also have a good gallop before they get there, if my memory serves. Anyway, if you and Judo both
agree it matters then that's good enough to convince me.

Smoky Hill
Recession Proof
Cousin Khee
GL everyone.

Smoky Hill
Recession Proof
Cousin Khee
GL everyone.

Little bit of W&PL on Pallasator & Domination. GD luck all.

did anyone find that winner?

insane result

backed Lieutenant Miller & Chilberta, good runs for the money

boil over...

remarkable performance lost 10 lengths at start...

can't script it sometimes

really weird , wonder how much got matched at huge prices?

got that chiberta wrong good call ew that thought he had way to much weight

Someone tipped that winner on twitter.

Chiberta ran well.

Never mind lads,jumps getting going now!!

yes indeed, can't wait for the jumps! I am a jumps man budd

but I have also had a fantastic flat season punting wise so I will miss it from that aspect

Fillies & new headgear eh
Give it a try on the wife's & burds lads & see what happens
Someone on the other horse racing page tipped it up & very well done to him
Amazing performance after such a poor start.

Hope that blew the draw angle out of the water for good. If a horse can give that much ground away and still win then really, what does a few lengths gained on an inside draw matter. Looked at Scatter Dice yesterday morning after seeing S de Sousa booked (2-2 on the horse and 4-19 for Johnston on 4yp+ this year but couldnt even see a first tiem visor working - wrong!)

putting the viser on would suggest  the plan was to  be up with the pace or lead ....