Cesarewitch

Body Language has since boosted the form as well when running seemingly above himself in a listed race on Friday.

Ces.does look a harder race than trial though.

there's only a handful at best that are on a mark they can win off, look forward to whittling them down when I've examined the last 20 odd runnings

going will as ever be crucial

I don't sorry, 96 ish in my book

That then means, if you think Brockwell ran to 106 that Oriental Fox who gave him 8lbs and a 5 length beating ran to somewhere around 120? (ie. 106 +8lbs more carried + what you award for the 5 lengths

If that's the case Oriental Fox will gag up off 104

Oriental Fox did not realistically improve about 15lb+ in one race (previous best RPR 105)

or at least logical assessment says it's highly unlikely, 5 or 6lbs is more likely

hence Brockwell improved 5 or 6lbs to run 96/97 ish

I mean he was beaten 4 lengths in his previous race and RPR rated that effort 93, and he was 3rd in The Plate and that got RPR 97 and he was only beaten 1.75 lengths

We shall see but in my experience handicappers rarely improve by the amounts you are suggesting in reality and using collateral form from a non handicap race is not solid footing imo

I think if you look at Body Language's Beverley win you can also see he beat Platinum and Nashville and both those 2 horses have won off higher marks since so this does add some substance to the form. However for me personally on my speed figures I don't have Body Language any higher that mid 80s even on that last run but I'm not sure how reliable my speed figures are over the longer distances sometimes.

If we look at cosimo de Medici in that ces trial then it is possible to assume he could have run to his mark given he has won the ces trial before off 84. However more recently the horse has finished 2nd off 80 at Goodwood and 80 is the sort of figure I would think CDM is. Anyway all in all I do think Brockwell has around 5 or 6 lb in hand and  he is proven over c/d and has run well in these big handicaps so yes 25s looks a reasonable price and Oriental Tiger must have a good chance as well.

Was happy enough with PALLASATOR's last run to take a price.

judo
In the interests of constructive debate, would you be willing to assess the Trial race as the result would have been without the participation of 'the first three' (i e had Cosimo de Medici won from Burnham etc) and reveal what rating you would have given to CDM in those circumstances?

My assessment would have been:

90 Cosimo de Medici         RPR previous run   90
81 Burnham......................  "          "         "      86
88 Arch Villain...................  "          "         "      96
76 Silver Samba...............  "          "         "      85
71 Valid Reason................      Best  RPR         86
70 Teak............................  RPR previous run   80
80 Beacon Lady...............    "         "         "      88
etc

As often the case, I suppose the reality lies probably somewhere in  the  middle ground.
I agree with you all that rationally the likelihood of such extraordinary improvement is vanishingly small, but I cannot dispel the feeling that something pretty unusual has occurred here!

smokey hill not in the betting for cadran,hope he is coming over

Smoky Hill certainly looks like a potential blot on the handicap!

Nt up yet - no major shocks tho - Ted Veale the most notable absentee, Drive Time, Aaim to Prosper too

Will put em up wen i av em easy to c+p

1    32-121    Tiger Cliff49      4    9-10    Lady Cecil50    Tom Queally     104    102    110
2     203501    Oriental Fox21 4x      5    9-10    Mark Johnston40         104    106    115
3    24-711    Thecornishcockney226    4    9-8    John Ryan40         102    81    109
4     5-5136    Chiberta King29      7    9-8    Andrew Balding71    Oisin Murphy5     102    100    109
5     111-3    Pallasator35      4    9-6    Sir Mark Prescott Bt100         100    70    115
6     01-012    Domination48J      6    9-1    C Byrnes         95    75    110
7     234122    Mutual Regard39    4    9-0    Sir Mark Prescott Bt100         94    94    114
8     612-27    Earth Amber164    4    9-0    Nicky Henderson    Kieren Fallon     94    64    111
9     116160    Broxbourne21    4    9-0    Mark Johnston40         94    77    112
10     152111    Platinum35 4x    6    9-0    Philip Kirby60         94    91    114
11     10433d0    Highland Castle49    5    8-13    David Elsworth67         93    91    114
12     13632    Clowance Estate35    4    8-13    Roger Charlton50         93    95    116
13     7-3714    Smoky Hill27    4    8-11    M Delzangles         91    81    123
14     3-2132    Lieutenant Miller73      7    8-11    Nicky Henderson    Ryan Moore     91    84    113
15     343573    Brockwell21      4    8-11    Tom Dascombe62         91    105    114
16     926624    Moidore22    4    8-10    John Quinn33         90    101    116
17     1510/8    Big Easy116    6    8-10    Philip Hobbs         90    61    113
18     32100/    Mamlook783J    9    8-9    David Pipe         89    —    —
19    14333    Seaside Sizzler34      6    8-8    Ralph Beckett78         88    103    113
20     725604    Scatter Dice13    4    8-8    Mark Johnston40         88    98    116
21     5-7324    Waterclock39    4    8-8    Roger Charlton50    Joey Haynes5     88    100    113
22     083614    Cosimo de Medici21      6    8-7    Hughie Morrison43         87    96    108
23     2-8725    Albert Bridge21    5    8-7    Ralph Beckett78         87    106    116
24     163727    Cousin Khee35    6    8-7    Hughie Morrison43         87    106    111
25     031600    Nanton21    11    8-5    Jim Goldie48         85    96    113
26     515110    Poyle Thomas35    4    8-4    Ralph Beckett78    Martin Lane     84    100    111
27     413510    Eagle Rock21 4x    5    8-4    Tom Tate50         84    96    113
28     5500/9    Recession Proof34    7    8-2    John Quinn33         82    72    93
29    461674    Taglietelle81    4    8-0    Andrew Balding71         80    111    118
30     2-5708    Sohar45    5    8-0    James Toller100         80    102    119
31     716-85    Los Nadis22    9    7-13    Jim Goldie48         79    89    100
32     421820    Flashman22    4    7-13    Richard Fahey56         79    104    116
33     10455    Sign Manual25    4    7-12    Michael Bell70         78    95    114
34     035043    Wyborne21    4    7-12    Brian Ellison44         78    65    114
35     00-550    Cloudy Spirit70J      8    7-12    Andrew Hollinshead56         78    104    112
36     19431    Swinging Hawk14 4x    7    7-12    Ian Williams38         78    82    113
37     746047    High Office21    7    7-11    Richard Fahey56         77    95    111
38     122666    Merchant Of Dubai13    8    7-11    Jim Goldie48         77    93    110
39     374023    Jonny Delta14    6    7-11    Jim Goldie48         77    93    113
40    224416    Capellanus107    7    7-10    Brian Ellison44         76    94    109
41     320570    Aleksandar21    4    7-5    Jim Goldie48         71    66    106
42     07774-    Becausewecan351      7    7-1    Brian Ellison44         67    —    94
43    542528    Keep Kicking28    6    6-13    Simon Dow         65    60    100

cheers BJG.

I've had a bet on Moidore at 33/1. He may need the going slightly softer but his form from a handicapping p.o.v. looks fair to me. Gave 2lb to Well Sharp back in May and although he was beat 6 lengths, Well Sharp is now 20lb higher. Moidore is 10lb better off with Oriental Fox from their Newcastle run and he gave 13lb to Statutory who has just slammed Prescott's horse Mutual Regard (rated 95) by an easy 8 lengths at Pontefract. Whether i'm right or wrong 33/1 seems rather big to me.

Short list

Lieutenant Miller
Domination
Oriental Fox
Big Easy

Have backed Lieutenant Miller ante post so far, 12/1

waiting on the draw before adding more stakes

don't care what you think, it's not on my short list for very good reasons and I doubt it can win

I won't be backing Oriental Fox either, penalised horses have a bad record in the race

Put PALLASATOR down for this race, after his eye catching seasonal comeback in the Old Borough Cup.

I am sure you won't regret it Stevie G - Must be a stonking each way bet at 25/1 if he doesn't get done by the draw.