Horse Antepost
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Cesarewitch
Cesarewitch
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Brockwell won his first handicap off 68, is running off 92 on Sat. You guys fancy him for a career best?
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I think a lot of the horses in the race will have won off much lower marks in the past sint, don't think that matters. As for a career best being needed then perhaps it will although I think he is overpriced on that last run and also his Goodwood run he is 4lb better off (without inc jock allowance) with Lieutenant Miller so even that gives him a reasonable chance. Course, distance and ground no problem and has run well in these big handicaps before. 25s looks a bit of value to me, I think he should be on the 14/16 to 1 mark
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The form of his last run may prove to be much better than generally believed, as I have opined at the beginning of this thread.
He has always been a progressive sort. |
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Yes they have Stevie. The majority of horses have progressed up the handicap.
I have added Chiberta King at 25/1 with Oisin Murphy riding. He takes off 5lb, OR 102, so will effectively be 97 witch is 1lb lower than his last handicap win. He has not ran in a handicap for over two years, all of his runs since June 11 have been mostly Listed and Group 2's. Earlier in the season he won at Royal Ascot and stayed on well. He is thoroughly exposed now but he is taking a drop in class. Last run was a Group 2 and whilst he was well beaten some of those horses who beat him that day he had previously well beat himself so im inclined to think it was a slight prep race as he had not ran for over 60 days. |
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Yes he is an interesting one sint, he would similar class to Aaim To Prosper who won the race off 107 last year. I think they met a couple of times and there wasn't much between them. Balding used Murphy on Highland Colori for the Ayr Gold cup too. So yes he does look one to have on your side. I may also add him in also.
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do not understand the ante post money for Smoky Hill, clearly some people think he has a massive chance for some reason or other but I cannot see it and he 's a 50/1 shot on my tissue
yet he 's in single figures and a sea of blue on oddschecker one of us has to be wrong |
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Wouldn't be surprised if's he's been aimed at the race Steve, Worth a pop given yard form and jockey booking imo.
Agree Judo. Think he looks ridiculously short tbh, seems to be based on the trainer saying he thinks the horse is well handicapped. |
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re Chilberta King:
horses that were beaten in the Doncaster Cup on their last start have won the Ces several times (3 times last 10 years) and there are much worse candidates at shorter prices in the market |
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OH MY GOSH omg omg...dis judorick is da best punter in da world, or any other world, know whut am sayin ? he is just da best. Nobody else in dis planet can look at da 30 runner field and say 'dis one won't win'. Peepz out there have been given awards for less. Im gonna toon in to dis race on Saturday to see who is right, in da big showdown between judos 29 horses againt da field in da 30 runner race.
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The horse he beat in the Queen Alexandra aint too shabby either,Shahwardi, just a shame he has not ran since. He was runner-up in the same race the previous year to Simenon who nearly won the Ascot Gold Cup this year. Shahwardi has some other useful form to horses like Tac de Boistron who was 2nd in the Prix Du Cadran at the weekend. Of course you can pick holes in some of the form as you always can but with the 5lb claim it's worth a punt at 25/1 imo.
Draw can put a kibosh on his chance though. |
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yes you can definitely build an argument for the horse on lots of grounds Sint
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Brockwell has a far better chance than Chiberta King imo. Balding is a target trainer and the Queen Alexandria was CK's target. The form isnt worth a hill of beans with horses rated 86 and 80 2 lengths way in 4th & 5th. They said he would be put away for the Ces after that and there he was 3 weeks later getting humped out of sight at Sandown and again at Donny. Intersting to see Jason Tart back on board Brockwell after a cracking run in the Northumberland Plate - think he would have been 2nd with another furlong. Was given too much to do at Goodwood, an indifferent ride at Ascot and returned from a 42 day break to run creditably at Newmarket, granted, given a right thumping by Oriental Fox. That "trial" race has yet to throw up the winner so a note of caution but at 20's there are worse punts.Has been well punted in the last week too. i was hoping for a monsoon and Johnny delta to slip in at the bottom but looks unlikely now
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What's Murtagh booked to ride?
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Oriental Fox
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Shame, as I've ruled that one out, but thanks, Judorick.
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Lads now NRNB, 5 places.
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judorick
08 Oct 13 16:58 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 18,314 | Blogger: judorick's blog do not understand the ante post money for Smoky Hill, clearly some people think he has a massive chance for some reason or other but I cannot see it and he 's a 50/1 shot on my tissue yet he 's in single figures and a sea of blue on oddschecker one of us has to be wrong i agree can't see why they are so keen on this fellow...cannot have it under 20-1 myself very confusing indeed |
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Looks like being soft for sat,lot of rain forcast
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Any news on possible drop outs at the final dec stage?
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Swinging Hawk looks like a good big priced punt.
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not sure its a runner is it follower?? been very weak on here
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1 30 32-121 Tiger Cliff49 4 9-10 Lady Cecil80 Tom Queally 104 102 110
2 20 203501 Oriental Fox21 4x 5 9-10 Mark Johnston41 Johnny Murtagh 104 106 115 3 34 24-711 Thecornishcockney226 t 4 9-8 John Ryan40 Stevie Donohoe 102 81 109 4 1 5-5136 Chiberta King29 p 7 9-8 Andrew Balding67 Oisin Murphy5 102 100 109 5 7 111-3 Pallasator35 4 9-6 Sir Mark Prescott Bt75 Luke Morris 100 70 115 6 16 01-012 Domination48J 6 9-1 C Byrnes F M Berry 95 75 110 7 5 612-27 Earth Amber164 4 9-0 Nicky Henderson Richard Hughes 94 64 111 8 22 116160 Broxbourne21 4 9-0 Mark Johnston41 William Buick 94 77 112 9 21 152111 Platinum35 4xp 6 9-0 Philip Kirby43 Russ Kennemore 94 91 114 10 2 13632 Clowance Estate35 4 8-13 Roger Charlton56 Graham Lee 93 95 116 11 14 7-3714 Smoky Hill27 4 8-11 M Delzangles Umberto Rispoli 91 81 123 12 32 3-2132 Lieutenant Miller73 7 8-11 Nicky Henderson Ryan Moore 91 84 113 13 17 343573 Brockwell21 h1 4 8-11 Tom Dascombe68 Jason Hart3 91 105 114 14 15 926624 Moidore22 4 8-10 John Quinn33 Daryl Byrne5 90 101 116 15 36 1510/8 Big Easy116 6 8-10 Philip Hobbs Jamie Spencer 90 61 113 16 35 14333 Seaside Sizzler34 tv 6 8-8 Ralph Beckett67 Jim Crowley 88 103 113 17 18 725604 Scatter Dice13 v1 4 8-8 Mark Johnston41 Silvestre De Sousa 88 98 116 18 6 5-7324 Waterclock39 p 4 8-8 Roger Charlton56 Joey Haynes5 88 100 113 19 19 083614 Cosimo de Medici21 6 8-7 Hughie Morrison46 Paul Hanagan 87 96 108 20 8 2-8725 Albert Bridge21 5 8-7 Ralph Beckett67 Wayne Lordan 87 106 116 21 27 163727 Cousin Khee35 6 8-7 Hughie Morrison46 Andrea Atzeni 87 106 111 22 31 031600 Nanton21 11 8-5 Jim Goldie43 Barry McHugh 85 96 113 23 4 515110 Poyle Thomas35 p 4 8-4 Ralph Beckett67 Martin Lane 84 100 111 24 33 413510 Eagle Rock21 4xp 5 8-4 Tom Tate50 Andrew Mullen 84 96 113 25 3 5500/9 Recession Proof34 p 7 8-2 John Quinn33 Connor King5 82 72 93 26 28 461674 Taglietelle81 4 8-0 Andrew Balding67 David Probert 80 111 118 27 24 2-5708 Sohar45 5 8-0 James Toller100 Cathy Gannon 80 102 119 28 13 716-85 Los Nadis22 9 8-0 Jim Goldie43 Jack Garritty7 79 89 100 29 26 421820 Flashman22 4 8-0 Richard Fahey56 Duran Fentiman 79 104 116 30 12 10455 Sign Manual25 h 4 8-0 Michael Bell68 Jimmy Quinn 78 95 114 31 25 19431 Swinging Hawk14 4x 7 8-0 Ian Williams44 78 82 113 32 9 746047 High Office21 7 8-0 Richard Fahey56 Kieran O'Neill 77 95 111 33 11 122666 Merchant Of Dubai13 8 8-0 Jim Goldie43 Joe Doyle7 77 93 110 34 23 374023 Jonny Delta14 6 8-0 Jim Goldie43 Shelley Birkett5 77 93 113 35 29 224416 Capellanus107 7 8-0 Brian Ellison50 76 94 109 36 10 320570 Aleksandar21 4 8-0 Jim Goldie43 71 66 106 horrible draw for tiger cliff |
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Not too clever for Lt Miller either :)
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ye tough result for both
the only thing in there favour is eagle rock who will go forward early... has only one style of racing but that is the only thing |
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yes some tough draws for fancied horses domination not too bad in 16 but my outside bet seaside sizzler drawn 36 I have just had 20 quid at 60 on here may well have been 600
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well 25/1 Chilberta King looks big enough to have a poke with 5 places ew from stall 1
not very confident at all about Lieutenant Miller from 32  |
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Jeez fkin shockers of draws here
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decent enough draws for my two Chiberta and Moidore. Not sure Chiberta will want much rain to fall though.
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only ran once on soft sint and won
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yeah not worried about the rain for Chilberta
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yep fair enough that was off a mark of 91. He's also won on Soft over hurdles so may be it will be OK.
Pallasator likely to go off Fav now imo given the draw. He has the same sire as Treve! Motivator, so won't mind the rain. |
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won't be very soft anyway, if the 8 mm predicted lands might be just on the slow side of good (was good to firm Wednesday)
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very very windy up this way,so would need alot of rain to make it soft imo
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The one, imho to handicap would be the Henderson/Hughes one, very hard to pin down a mark, could have been just put away for this
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Am going to caveat this post with a confession I have never picked the winner of this race. Had a few close but never the actual winner. I have had a real close look and have decided to cut it down to low draw and hurdlers who have won over 2m+ so have picked Chiberta King @25/1 and Recession Proof @ 25/1. Good luck to all.
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Chilberta King had some hot form with Aim to Prosper back in 2012 beat him a couple of times not getting any weight , the last time was in september 2012 , as Aim to prosper went on to win the Ces off the welter weight of 9.10 that year , Chilbutra King has to be taken seriously in this event running off 97 when his brilliant young Jockeys allowance is taken into account ,
His run in the QA may be a little misleading as he practically pulled his way to the front after about two miles of the race , he was tiring toward the end of that two mile six furlong contest ,he should be fine over over 18 furlongs , I like this one and Tiger cliff gl all in as tough a race to solv as ever was |
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solve*
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I'm on Albert Bridge at 40s, a decent draw too
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zilzal, as far as earth amber goes id agree its hard to handicap but it would be some effort to win a race like this after 5 starts
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Thinking of taking 9 against the field! Probably a good way to lose money!!
15:50 Newmarket Lieutenant Miller WIN Odds Increment Decrement Stake £0.00 Oriental Fox WIN Odds Increment Decrement Stake £0.00 Clowance Estate WIN Odds Increment Decrement Stake £0.00 Recession Proof WIN Odds Increment Decrement Stake £0.00 Brockwell WIN Odds Increment Decrement Stake £0.00 Earth Amber WIN Odds Increment Decrement Stake £0.00 Chiberta King WIN Odds Increment Decrement Stake £0.00 Broxbourne WIN Odds Increment Decrement Stake £0.00 Poyle Thomas WIN Odds Increment Decrement Stake £0.00 |