**Paddy Power Gold Cup 2013**

zilzal it's November and he won a race today.

Ah well, makes me look a bit stupid just passing on some useless stuff seen somewhere about his fitness levels in the spring...

Final Ratings after a few important defections:

Rajdhani Express 100%
Champion Court 84%
Johns Spirit 80%

Conquisto 78%
Hidden Cyclone 78%
Ballynagour 77%
Tap Night 74%

Rajdhani Express clear top rated, followed by Champion Court. Then a bit of a bunch up behind, with Johns Spirit marginally ahead of the rest.

Henderson hasn't got a good record in race has he ?

So what? He hadn't won the trainers championship since the 80's until last season

Henderson has had 17 runners, 1 winner and 6 placed in the last 10 years

good enough for me

They said the same thing about Nicholls this time last season.

yep jocci radjahni express  looks to have a lot going for him ,will be backing him and 1 other and in my 10 ta follow .

I can't have him myself. Just can't get beyond his record first time up. Will need to be at his absolute best to give a stone to some really good horses and just think he will come on for this run. Good luck though!

he's only had 7 chase starts and is 6 years old, basing opposition on first time out record for a horse like that is a bit flimsy, it's like he is 9 years old and hasn't won first time out

and Chemical Nicky nominated this race straight after last win at Ayr

What really good horses is he giving over a stone too? Maybe John's Spirit it in light but with Sams claim it's less than a stone and about a fair handicap between the two. Don't think their are any other sleepers with the same form as Radjahni express at the bottom of the handicap.

I will be shocked if Radjahni Express completes the course on Saturday if he's out of the first 4.

*not like

A hard race to work out.
There isn't a top class novice from last season who could improve well beyond his current OR, who could be well in.
The older horses are not 2m 5f specialist.
So i'm taking a chance on Colour Squadron. Looked a top grade hurdler. Didn't fire last year, but hoping he can bounce back off a very generous mark.

good luck all

not that hard imo, there;s only 4 or 5 realistic winners, everything else got to do stuff they've never done like win in higher than class 3, or at the trip, or win a chase for the first time, win off marks they've been beaten off before and so on

Very true if you look at it from your stat angle.
Not knocking it by the way, we all look at races in our own way.

I like to look at good class novices from the year before. There isn't any.
Secondly a top class handicapper at the distance. There isn't any.
A poor renewal for me this is.
I'm taking a chance that Colour squadron is better than he looked last year and as good as he looked he could be 2 years ago. Like Tranquil Sea 4 years ago.

Radjahni Express form ties in with Changing Times, who ties in with Dynaste and Module from the Jewson. He could be well in on his mark and he has the course form. He could be a 160 horse, who knows? He's only 6 and has the course form.

As I repeat again, Tom George must have been mad not to go for this race with Module. £91,000 prize for the Paddy Power over the optimum trip for his horse and he has course form or £35,000 over a trip that is inadequate in the Haldon. Hmmmm

Let it go Dogg.
He isn't running.
Live in then now

You must remember these folk who train horses, they aint the brightest

Another Rajdhani backer signing in plus a small e/w saver on Tap Night.

Good thread.

I think it's between three horses

Ballynagour - We don't really know how good he is, might have bounced at the festival when sent off a very short priced favourite, goes well fresh, could be well handicapped.
Colour Squadron - I thought he travelled like the best at the festival then either dogged it or didn't stay. He has the perfect jockey for his style of racing, he will be switched off at the back which will help his jumping, off a mark of 139 could be thrown in on better ground.
Radjahni Express - I echo the other comments on here, he is the potential class improver in the race and Cohen's 5lbs claim could be the difference between winning and placing.

Horses like Champion Court, Finians Rainbow etc I can see running well but just not winning off their marks without claimers.

Good luck all.

My two against the field are Ballynagour and Colour Squadron. If i were to back a third it would have been Champion Court. I think he will carry weight and run a big race. He's said to be in good nick.

Just looked at last years thread on this race,54 pages and the winner not mentioned till page 53, and no one tipped him!! 
Was a better class race, this one looks poor to me.The winner could pick this lot up and carry them
I will take a good look Saturday morning but wont be going mad.

Correction, Foyleswar mentioned him on page 50, and I see hes tipped Radjhani this time.

About the best reason ive read on this thread for backing him

Stuff ya stats,trends, form etc etc, just follow foyles!!!! He knew the class of Al Ferof!!!!!

RE Al Ferof 1 year ago

judorick     13 Nov 12 21:04 
I will rule him out completely because:-

he is slow
all of the last 10 winners had won a chase at 2 miles 4 furlongs at least, he hasn't
Paul Nicholls has an abysmal record in the race
he is very slow and badly handicapped

All entitled to our opinion judo. And I don't like backing horses first time up that haven't proved they can win. I dont think that's 'flimsy'.

Colldogg. Nadia de la Vega, Colour Squadron and Johns Spirit all very good horses IMO. And all getting roughly a stone.

In my opinion, the ground won the race for Al Ferof last season. From the top of my head only 4-5 horses finished the race, a few of them were rags and over fences Walkon has shown himself to dog it when given the licence to go and win the race. Al Ferof is a very good horse but in my opinion, i don't think he would have won off his mark of 159 on normal good ground in your typical renewal of the race (i.e. Imperial Commander, Exotic Dancer, Our Vic, Great Endeavour etc would have all slammed him off their marks on decent ground). It's why a horse like Champion Court is underpriced without a claimer on board without his mark as it's difficult to see him winning this race, a handicap lest we forget - I think when the ground is heavy/bottomless as it was last year the aspect of a race being a 'handicap' goes out the window and you are better just concentrating on a horse who will act on the ground, is a solid jumper and stays well. Al Ferof ticked those boxes but like many others, I failed to take into account that the bottomless ground renders the handicap aspect of the race, almost redundant, so didn't think he could win off 159. For me, last years race is irrelevant towards looking at this race and future years but it did teach me not to just concentrate on a horse's handicap mark on bottomless ground.

To suppose the above I expect Al Ferof to get exposed as a very good but not a top class horse in the King George where he will likely be underpriced on account of his visually impressive win in last season's Paddy Power.

* support not suppose

I'm not slating Al Ferof either. I'm annoyed with myself for having tunnel vision last year and not appreciating that he is bred and shown himself to be a strong stayer, has a touch of quality, generally jumps very well and acts well on the track so he was an amazing bet last year at 8/1+ given the ground but in my opinion you had to think outside the box and not treat the race as a handicap. I think this years renewal will be back to a regulation handicap type winner.

May have a touch more quality than you think Swagger, and imo time will tell us that..
Would agree somewhat re the KG though, but that would be more to do with the track rather than how good he is imo.
Really think Alf is a proper Cheltenham horse,have always said this after watching the supreme,and to my mind that's where you will see the best of him, whether he can still win top races elsewhere,i don't know,i hope so though.

Interesting point re the track Budd, he could deveop into a Ryanair horse. Personally I just can't get out of my head that Ascot race when even though he was a novice, he was in my opinion easily swept aside and outclassed by Somersby and Finians Rainbow (the latter improved after that race as a horse when being held up keeping him switched on and interested to beat targets and not emptying his tank from the front) which puts me off him for the King George etc but I probably do underate Alf as a horse at Cheltenham I would agree with that.

hardly a mention for my fancy vino griego

Phillip Hobbs has had 4 winners in his last 15 runners, so had an eachway bet on Colour Squadron now, though i'm slightly concerned that Graeme has backed it.

re Module .. trainer has said he is more suited to smaller fields for the time being.

2 against the field for me are F'Rainbow and Hidden Cyclone, I usually prefer to back a second season chaser but imo there is no Imperial Commander, Exotic Dancer in the field this year. So you have to go with a horse that is proven at Grade 1 level. Doubts about them both, Finian's is he fit? If he turns up in Queen Mother Champion Chase form I can't really see him being beat. Hidden Cyclone? Have they got him right this season as he wasn't right at any stage last term. If so his runs as a novice entitle him to a chance off this mark.

In the 60 running's of this race 17% of the top weights have won, that's just under a fifth of the races. Taken another way, lets be liberal and say an average of fifteen runners ran in each race, that's 900 runners, 10 top weights won and 50 also ran's won, or 50 top weights failed and 840 also ran's.
To invert that data would mean; 93% of horses other than top weight don't win but only 83% of the top weights don't.
Given we are looking for an edge and the above clearly hints at one, throw in Finnians 10Lb drop in official ratings and also I alluded to the fact that 12 out of the last 15 winners finished the season as top official rating and only a small minority of the field could possibly achieve that status, then 10/1 would seem very good value indeed.

Four against the field: Rajdhani Express, Finnians Rainbow, Astracad and Gift Of Dgab.

Here I have a mixture of progressive second season chasers and old guard alike. I thought Astracad was going equally as well as Johns Spirit first time out (hadn't come of the bridal), but McClernon managed to keep Twiston D boxed in as the race began in earnest, then Twiston ran into the back of those infront as they jumped two out and lost valuable momentum, he has a big  pull in the weights and will strip much fitter for what has been the main target.
Gift Of Dgab has been a plot since he came back from injury, before which he has good form tied in with Flemenstar, he's since had a couple of runs over too far and a final hurdle blow out which has all the hallmark of a Martin swoop.

Good luck folks.

Having looked at this for a good while now, I have come to the conclusion that they all have questions to answer and as a consequence I don't think there will be a winner this year.  If it was softer I would give a chance to Hidden Cyclone.  Good luck

shockster 15 Nov 13 17:35 
Having looked at this for a good while now, I have come to the conclusion that they all have questions to answer and as a consequence I don't think there will be a winner this year.  If it was softer I would give a chance to Hidden Cyclone.  Good luck


That's the best bloody summary I've read and pretty well sums up my thoughts...having said that I'll tentatively side with ballynagour, even after the warwick stroll and the weight rise there was still a thought that he was still well handicapped, I'll take a chance that he bounced next time and back fresh again perhaps he can do it.

Im come around to the conclusion that Henderson holds the key, but i dont know which one, so i'll be greedy and go for the com f/c......

shockster

if it was heavy then vino griego would have a great chance given the way he won over C+D earlier this year as it is I think he has a great e/w chance

winning course form and visor back on

I have thrown £2 on Attaglance. Cheltenham festival winner over hurdles from a yard in blinding form.

Joined: Date Joined: 05 Oct 03 | Topic/replies: 10,638 | Blogger: zilzal1's blog
Im come around to the conclusion that Henderson holds the key, but i dont know which one, so i'll be greedy and go for the com f/c......

Well if he does z, then not sure what door it will unlock. No serious money for any of his. I backed RE each-way on the day the entries were announced. He was 14/1 2 weeks ago. 12/1 now....don't see a lot of stable confidence there. When was the last time they went 7/1 the field for this race? Could be a right result for the bookmakers.

find it funny that CCM uses the 'doesn't win FTO' argument against Radjhani Express yet thinks Colour Squadron, who is a maiden over fences, can beat him first time out

Colour Squadron will have to improve his jumping dramatically since last season to have a chance in a race like the PP.

You're a bit of a know it all, arent you judo?

There s nothing 'funny' about it at all. Anyone who has seen Colour Squadron know he needs to improve his jumping. But the fact he is so lightly raced over them, means there is a chance he will. To not even encounter the prospect of him beating RE is whats funny. Just because it doesnt fit your 'opinion', because that's all it is.

Last time they met, Colour Squadron ran a decent race despite not jumping well, and tired under a big weight in softer ground. He is 18lbs better off, is a horse I think goes well fresh, and has his preferred ground. Added to that, the stable seem in very good nick. Now he might well not have improved his jumping and disappoint again, we shall see.

I find it funny you can get it so wrong (see Al ferof post), yet continue to post as if you are some kind of visionary.

Right had a good look this morning,and decided its Champion Court for me,and I also like the Conquisto/Astracad form so will have a couple of back up bets on those.
At the big prices I fancy Carrickboy could run a big race and worth a couple of bob I reckon.
Good luck all.

No stand out candidate for me, so sticking with the bottom three, all e/w. Nadiya de la Vega, Colour Squadron and Johns Spirit. Good luck!

Not really a race to get involved in slide rule handicapping imo , best Horse in the race is Finians  Rainbow , second best is  probably Champion Court?
They are shouting  CC from the rooftops  so that will do for me at the price ,which is  fairly generous  gl

Tough race. Everytime I look at this I just can't believe the price of Wishful Thinking, it's a bit of an insult.

Last season he came out and had his prep in the Old Roan and won a chelt handicap nto off 162. Same again this year, ran in the Olad Roan, and runs in this off 158.

He comes with his risks, he could spit the dummy out, but I can see him running well (stable in form) and 40/1 ew 5plcs with Ski bet, seems fair.

I look at the rest, and the youngsters don't give me the feel of potential superstars, and those we know about are exposed enough. Gift of D'Gab and Hidden Cyclone could have more to come if they take to the race.

IMO this year it's a lottery.  Some will disagree and some will find the winner and well done to you.  They say the National is a lottery but this appears a much harder puzzle this year than the National ever does.  Had a tiny bet on Hidden Cyclone just because it's the PP and it's a flagship race.  Ill disciplined.

G1 Track/Class 1 NH Hcap races, are very good betting opportunities in my experience.I think JOHN's SPIRIT is a really good bet. Champions Court nb.

Looks a hard race, I have backed FR at 40 antepost and today will be backing RE ew but i dont see an AL Ferof lurking in the field.

i'm sticking with nadiya as although now carrying overweight with the jockey goes particularly well off the lay off with ground much better than last years i find it hard to see her out the frame...ballynagour has to be respected for me with the horse still very unexposed...difficult stuff but nadaya for me ew

John's Spirit for me as he is an improving second season chaser off near enough bottom weight. His light was hidden under a bushel last season by some novicey jumping errors, including when running a good race in the festival novices handicap. Would have finished much closer to Rajdhani Express but for a serious blunder four out. So, he needs a clear round but I was impressed with him over C&D last time out. Rob Conti, beaten into second not for the first time this season, was a fit horse going up in the handicap and the third ran very well at Cheltenham yesterday. John's Spirit has been placed 13/18 times in his career so clearly has ability and I'm hoping he'll continue his improvement today. A good each-way bet at around 17/2 in my opinion. I'll have a saver on Rajdhani Express as he has the best form in the book and a reverse csf on the two.

PS annoying that the race second favourite in this bonus race wasn't listed in the Racing Post ten to follow competition. They must be choosing the horses too early.

Concur it looks very trappy.

Small bets ew on Rajdhani Express earlier in the week (don't know why I bothered, could have got bigger price and 5 places this morning) and Astracad who does n't look as poorly handicapped to me as connections would have you believe.

Would not be surprised, however, if any of the following won:

Finian's Rainbow, Champion Court, Tap Night, Colour Squadron, John's Spirit and Nadiya de la Vega.

I can't have Ballynagour as favourite though, it's true he's unexposed but, to me, he's at least equally likely to be exposed as mediocre as to turn out to be a graded chase horse later in the season.Pipe horses still seem to be priced up like they were when his father was running the joint back in the day - I don't like Goulanes in the race which precedes the Paddy Power either.

If I'm wrong will be back to hold my hand up later.

Agree about the pipe horse, you cannot even judge if it is good enough for this race. you are only guessing at 8/1, id rather guess with a bigger price.

Attaglance because I'm following Jefferson this season
Vino Griego because Im following PW over 20-1 selections
Kumbeshwar cant let a Hutchinson horse go off at such a big price
Easter Meteor no one has mentioned it so I can take all the glory.

Good Luck all it is a very tricky race and really I dont have a clue.
Lets hope they all come back safe

Backed Rajdahni Express. Shamelessly following Judo's opinion! :)

Easter Meteor falling at the last has certainly cost Colour Squadron the win there. WD Johns Spirit backers.

Well done winners!

Well done winners and hard luck to CS backers but he hit evens IR

wd winners

Radjhani Express will come on a bundle for the run, travelled and jumped beautifully, no finish

December Gold Cup next

Why do you say that Judo? Surely would have been primed for today or do you now think there was something in his first time out record?

Looked like his handicap rating was the problem.

think a lot of the NJH horses looking like they need the run tbh but I don't think first time out record for a horse like that is really relevant, sample size too small. How many seasons you basing that on? 2? not enough for me

Anyway, next

judorick 30 Oct 13 16:07 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 19,538 | Blogger: judorick's blog
First draft Short List:

40F-452 ASTRACAD (FR)  7 Raymond Mould   Nigel Twiston-Davies

61/0P10- BALLYNAGOUR (IRE) 7 Allan Stennett    David Pipe

12411P- BENEFFICIENT (IRE) 7 A Shiels/Niall Reilly   Tony Martin IRE

2/11151- CAPTAIN CONAN (FR) 6 Triermore Stud   Nicky Henderson

0/11121- DYNASTE (FR)  7 John White    David Pipe

26033-1 JOHNS SPIRIT (IRE) 6 Christopher W T Johnston  Jonjo O'Neill

2F1011- RAJDHANI EXPRESS 6 Robert Waley-Cohen   Nicky Henderson   

133120- TEXAS JACK (IRE)  7 Robert Watson   Noel Meade IRE

33262-1 THIRD INTENTION (IRE) 6 Robert and Sarah Tizzard  Colin Tizzard

2P301-1 TRIOLO D'ALENE (FR) 6 Mr & Mrs Sandy Orr   Nicky Henderson

Given that horses tend to have 4 or 5 seasons I would say 2 seasons is something to go, but that's just me.

Given that horses tend to have 4 or 5 seasons I would say 2 seasons is something to go, but that's just me.

* to go on

Final Ratings after a few important defections:

Rajdhani Express 100% 5th
Champion Court 84%
Johns Spirit 80% 1st

Conquisto 78%
Hidden Cyclone 78% 3rd
Ballynagour 77%
Tap Night 74%

Winner 3rd best in trends ratings.

Handled with the usual class and dignity judo.... Gamble landed.

Nice when you watch a horse you've backed go from last to first during the race. Strange that McCoy hardly had a good word to say about it during the Morning Line. The stable must have been on!

An antepost bet where I win, amazing. After betting Easter Meteor last time out would have been gutted if he'd won. Thought Raj Express run like he definetely needed it. Jumped and travelled so well.

Don't lay it off next time

but picking 10 horses is not a skill picking 1-2 is surely?

Well done winners, including Pricewise who advised it at 12/1.

NJH horses are running like they need it and Pipes are just running terribly.

Looked a really poor renewal once the initial entries came out, which is when I lost interest in it, and with Dynaste and Marito failing to take their places it really was a shocker. Still maintain that Module would have won on the bridle.

Autocue, the plan was always to lay it off.

Well its quiet clear that those who touted Colour Squadron knew what they were talking about,that was seriously unlucky.Easter Meteor may have won...who knows,but certainly one of those 2 would have.

Well done winners. Colour Squadron did appear unlucky. Attaglance ran a blinder too from 6 lbs out of the handicap. Pity RE didn't hit the frame but he jumped beautifully and hopefully can make amends at the December meeting.

wd winners. The bottom few in the handicap were the ones to concentrate on. Attaglance gave me a good run for a 35/1 shot laid off at 20 but sadly he came past my place only bet-Radjani Ex. on the run in so lost on the race!

I backed Colour Squadron and obviously it would have been nice to see what would have happened if he didnt get slightly hampered at the 2nd last. But i don't feel unlucky. I think Johns Spirit was in the lead plenty early enough and idled badly up the run in. If Easter had stood up i feel the same horse would have still won the race.

Bl00dy hell!! you sure???

CS was pretty much level with JS when EM fell,by the time CS recovered from that incident he was about 6 lengths behind,and he got beat what? half a length??
JS may have idled, but no way can I see any other result than either CS or EM winning had that incident not occurred, and astonished to be honest that anyone can see different.

On first impression CS looked very unlucky but after watching it again, when CS got to within a length JS ran on again, just idling imo.

I do feel that yea.
If Easter had have stood up then Johns Spirit would have had horses to run against up the run in and not been left alone.
We'll never know but thats how i saw it.

so a horse that's level with another than goes 6 lengths behind after getting hampered and gets beat half a length,would have lost anyway??.

Sorry, just cant have it,but we obviously see it differently. No problem.

Would be odds on in a novice chase................

With the faller, JS was left in front ( sooner than the jockey would have wanted). He booted him on, and it was obvious he was idling in front, but once CS began to get to him , JS picked up again. No doubt in my mind that JS would still have won whatever the circumstances.

no one is saying he did not idle in front, but we are talking of a difference of 5-6 lengths here!! That's a lot of idling!!!

anyway its done,not much point in going on and on about it

I think we were deprived of a potentially crackerjack finish between 3 horses. I don't think its right that people are dismissing Easter just cos he was ridden and the other two were going better. He stays 3m and wasn't stopping. IMO CS by a length, JS and EM either way very tight in behind.

I guess I benefited from EM falling in that although I had 60 on EM at a big price, I had 235 ew JS @ 8's and might have only collected a place. Main bet was well beat.

Absolutely RG,he weren't beaten when he fell.
I backed him as well

What a difference a day makes - so much for Pipes horses running terribly.

think some of the previous runners at this meeting were overrated (in fairness by racing media rather than stable) - none of Top Gamble, Ballynagour and Goulanes have actually achieved very much.

Also he suggested ground might not be soft enough for one or two of those - but did n't shy away from racing them which will probably mean they strip fitter when they do get their ground.

Also, The Liquidator looks a serious tool.

Marito

Jezki

I won't post what I know but I know plenty about Marito now, including why he wasn't entered. All I can say on that is that it was a mistake which is highly unlikely to be happening again.

Anyway, today I think you all saw what the horse can do. Expect plenty more, but in the UK.

That's all for now but keep your eyes and ears open.

Cheers.

Not sure much can be gleaned from the Morgiana other than it was a fairly sedate pace, much like a training session for the Mullins horses, and a sprint finish. We don't know how fit each of the horses were (only Mullins will know that), and not sure it told us that much about Marito, apart from he's fit and well.

Think HF has been beaten first time out before, so maybe this was the time to get him beaten. I wasn't very impressed with the run, but it never was going to be a race to provide an impressive performance. Plenty more to cme from HF. Interested to see where Mariot goes now...John Durkan maybe?

The concern for HF today was that mullins has been saying leading up to the race that he's never had him so good coming out of the summer, it was workmanlike, I thought he quickened up far better first time out last season when he had go native snapping at his heels, the jezkis and our conors of this world had their chance today, although their respective previous runs were nothing to write home about, albeit one on the flat.

I think he said he'd come back stronger than ever, which perhaps doesn't necessarily mean he had him at concert pitch for the race. Hopefully, a combination of stronger, and full fitness will see him have another great season. I was expecting sligtly more than I got from the dual champion and 1/16 shot. However, the acid test is 4 months or more away, so shouldn't be too hasty darwing any conculsions at this early stage.

Well done Willie, great call nt to run here off 147! #dc