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Cambridgeshire winner
Cambridgeshire winner
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sintonian Joined: 21 Sep 04
Replies: 21557 19 Sep 13 11:58 Willie Haggas has 7 entries in the race currently so it will be interesting if Queensberry Rules is his only runner. The more I look at this, the more I think he holds a nap hand here. Going to pay very close attention to his entries and jockey bookings. |
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I have no doubt his best chance of a winner is with Graphic who is on my final short list of 7
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Ryan Moore on Queensberry Rules?
They are at least, trying. SO that's good. :) |
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I've added Code Of Honor @ 25/1.
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Has someone tipped him up today, Uncle? Lots of blue on odds-checker and only 25/1 available at B0yles. I have just had a looked through his profile and he is clearly progressive. Reminds me a bit of Pipedreamer, a progressive 3yo with few runs on the clock. 3 wins from 7 outings, OR 99. Henry Candy had 4 winners in his last twenty runners, going to add a few quid myself.
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Deep cogitation continues but this is my latest post in my races notes
Graphic is starting to interest me in as much as he has the look of a long term plot: Graphic got onto the final short list of 7 and the trainer knows what he is doing. The horse won't mind the going at all and beat Ascription fair and square at Haydock. That one has shot up 15lbs since being beaten by Graphic (running on softer going though) and that could mean the horse is really well in. They tried Graphic over C&D in October 2012 on good to soft. He ran 5th of 15 as a 3yo against the older horses yet a year later, and after winning his last two starts, he can line up here off 2lb lower than last year. Looks a plot but I am definitely worried about the trip. Most Cambridgeshire winners had won at 10 furlongs and those that had not were placed at 10 furlongs in good races (Graphic has neither on his CV). I note Haggas took the horse from Hannon and as we know he can land these big handicaps with other trainers cast offs (Rex Imperator). Trip is the worry |
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Trainer has said cut in the ground is essential for Haafaguinea, fwiw.
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Code of Honor actually comes from the same 3yp handicap at Goodwood that Pipedreamer ran in before his Cambridgshire win. Had to back him at 25/1 given profile and yard form. Would be happy if James Doyle rides, he won on him at Sandown.
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Tha'ir, who is also on my short list, also ran in that Goodwood handicap and is 7lb better off with Code of Honour for 3 lengths which is plenty when you consider he was top weight, didn't handle the track and now is in much better form having run a close second at Doncaster latest. 33/1 looks a big price to me. Specially when you look at some of his 2yo form (beaten length by Olympic Glory, won at Royal Ascot). Stable is also in red hot form (although a poor record in this race)
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Okay, enough talk of shortlists. Time to walk the walk:
Strictly Silver Ascription Nine Realms Forgive Graphic Short Squeeze Queensberry Rules Don't think Swiftly Done, Gabrials Kaka or Tigers Tail will get in. Other than that, please not let Dance and Dance win it! Followed that piece of sh1t over a cliff this year. |
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Quite exposed for a 3yo though Judo, 13 runs. Could run into a place given some useful form but handicapper must have a fair assessment of him.
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there's 5 days left to cogitate roger, I'm still making fine judgement calls to differentiate between them
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3 Haggas runners in your shortlist Roge. I will most likely add one closer to the time.
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he has only just come to hand imo sint, he might well have plenty more scope, is 4lb lower than after winning over 10 furlongs earlier this season, just the stable form in the race puts me off but the yard is in generally excellent form
most of them have some reason to question their suitability for the race and it's a matter of judging these weaknesses against each other several have a question mark on the going, the trip, class of race, form going in etc etc |
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Oh yeah deffo.
I'll probably bin the lot of 'em once the draw is out but these are (IMO) at least 5lbs well in and have plenty going for them re their profiles. Yeah Sint, like I said last night (and I think you did before) I think Haggas holds the key to this one. |
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yes I to like tha'ir but slightly worrying is weakness on here I also like Gabriel the great
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yes there's a lot of data to take into account and market signals will no doubt prove important, then there's the draw, pace profile, going and so on
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I guess that's why this is the ante-post forum!
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indeed! it's like solving a puzzle putting all the clues together to come up with an answer, just some of the clues (like the final decs, jockey bookings, draw, going, wind and weather and market moves) don't come along til later in the week
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Just did a RP search on some Henry Candy stats. He has a 16% strike rate at Newmaket overall, 7-43 showing a small loss. But when you narrow those winners down they all appear to be 3yos, 7/19, 37% strike rate for an LSP of £23. He is also 4/13 with his 3yos this month, 31% strike rate for an LSP of £21. No wonder this horse is being backed imo. Anyway, I've backed him again, eachway, at 20/1. A couple of firms are going 5 places.
Are there any quotes knocking around? Something must have initiated the widespread cut this morning. He was 28/1 with VC. |
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Maybe the form of the yard, the fact he looks certain to get in, & also the weather outlook for dry weather at Newmarket - he's better on decent ground (yes, I know he won on soft as a 2-y-o). Certainly looked impressive when he got some pace to race at when he won at Sandown.
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I was surprised Gosden pulled out Trade Commissioner - I'm convinced his optimum conditions are 9f & fast ground. Yard seem to have got it into their head he wants cut & 10f - which is too far on the wrong ground, & which made his Newbury effort last weekend that much more commendable.
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Isn't there some virus hitting Gosden's yard at present or did I just dream that one up?
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Last year's winner BRONZE ANGEL catches my eye at this stage . Trainer not had a great season to say the least but interesting returning here after almost a year's absence.
GRAPHIC stays on strongly in his races over a mile and this trip should suit , only doubt for me is will he get outpaced at some stage? |
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Fergus Sweeney rides COH. James Doyle on the Gosden/Abdullah horse Seek Again.
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J P Murtagh on Educate.
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Koral really are an appalling firm. Currently have a 10/1 Fav, then 5 others at 12/1. Disgusting.
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Yes that's true Roger, not how serious it is though.
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* not sure
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Bronze Angel last years winner was my early selection , was hoping they would get Buick again to ride the horse , they have missed a trick there if the Horse is properly fit as He takes a fair bit of shaking up to get going and Buick is the Man for that Job in the wide open spaces of Newmarket
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NO. DRAW HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
126 210445 Area Fifty One14 5 9-10 Richard Fahey50 William Twiston-Davies3 105 104 112 219 201026 Belgian Bill13 tp 5 9-9 George Baker38 Pat Cosgrave 104 97 112 34 010035 Educate35 4 9-9 Ismail Mohammed40 Johnny Murtagh 104 103 114 413 861595 Field Of Dream21 b 6 9-8 Jamie Osborne64 Adam Kirby 103 106 115 515 020100 Prince Of Johanne37 p 7 9-8 Tom Tate50 Graham Lee 103 106 116 632 728614 Strictly Silver35 p 4 9-7 Alan Bailey88 Robert Winston 102 93 115 729 626121 Ascription14 4xht 4 9-7 Hugo Palmer63 Joseph O'Brien 102 101 120 822 61315- Bronze Angel350 p 4 9-6 Marcus Tregoning50 George Baker 101 96 114 912 670915 Marcret28 6 9-5 James Unett Tom McLaughlin 100 104 112 1011 793242 Arsaadi21 b 4 9-4 William Haggas53 Ahmed Ajtebi 99 95 115 1121 511123 Robert The Painter7 v 5 9-4 David O´Meara32 Daniel Tudhope 99 109 112 1223 634702 Chapter Seven7 4 9-3 Stuart Williams60 Jamie Spencer 98 115 119 1316 10-400 King´s Warrior77 6 9-3 Peter Chapple-Hyam67 Jack Duern5 98 93 115 1427 750-40 Fury101 p 5 9-3 William Haggas53 98 94 114 158 226107 Danchai28 b1 4 9-3 William Haggas53 William Buick 98 98 115 166 21-017 Nine Realms21 4 9-2 William Haggas53 Liam Jones 97 106 115 179 31261 Sam Sharp35 7 9-2 Ian Williams44 Paul Hanagan 97 100 114 1830 464435 Proud Chieftain16 p 5 9-2 Clifford Lines Ted Durcan 97 88 112 192 281022 Tha´ir16 3 9-2 Saeed bin Suroor50 Silvestre De Sousa 102 94 116 201 421492 Gabrial The Great14 4 9-1 Luca Cumani68 Andrea Atzeni 96 107 114 2125 41104 The Rectifier7 t 6 9-1 Seamus Durack67 Seamie Heffernan 96 111 116 2231 081003 Captain Bertie33 5 9-1 Jane Chapple-Hyam22 Pat Smullen 96 108 113 2318 113306 Queensberry Rules37 t 3 9-0 William Haggas53 Ryan Moore 100 105 113 2435 112603 King George River36 3 9-0 Alan Bailey88 Robert Tart3 100 100 114 2534 701225 Red Avenger36 3 9-0 Ed Dunlop69 Gerald Mosse 100 106 113 2633 864020 Dance And Dance27 p 7 9-0 Ed Vaughan50 Jim Crowley 95 103 116 2710 293312 Forgive21 4 8-13 Richard Hannon61 Richard Hughes 94 109 118 2828 49153 Code Of Honor34 3 8-13 Henry Candy56 Fergus Sweeney 99 83 115 2924 543121 Top Notch Tonto21 4x 3 8-13 Brian Ellison50 Dale Swift 99 110 122 3020 743411 Graphic21 4xp 4 8-13 William Haggas53 Frankie Dettori 94 100 112 3114 116570 Boonga Roogeta49 4 8-12 Peter Charalambous100 Rosie Jessop3 93 106 115 3217 12-124 Seek Again21 3 8-12 John Gosden76 James Doyle 98 90 110 337 586234 Jack´s Revenge35 tb 5 8-12 George Baker38 Oisin Murphy5 93 106 115 343 422133 Tres Coronas77 6 8-12 David Barron35 Mickael Barzalona 93 107 115 355 221311 Pacific Heights17 4x 4 8-12 Brian Ellison50 Philip Prince5 93 100 115 |
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I had a bit on Gabriel the great 27 and their 44 on here and they are drawn 1 and 2 not sure that is the place to be
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tha'ir sorry
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Looks a tough puzzle this year. The one horse in the race that I feel is a possible group horse is Bronze Angel, very impressed with how he won it last year and hopefully he can become the first horse to win back to back cambridgeshires since Prince De Galles in 1970.
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Has this race ever been won by a horse having his first run of the season? Surely a very hard thing to do given nature of the race.
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Of his 7 entries Willie Haggas is running 6. Scattergun or not?
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After firmly being in the Short Squeeze camp , its jump ship time to Queensbury Rules doubt he will go off anywhere near 14/1 on the day.
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FYI - Sly Bet are now going 6 places for anyone who did not bet ante-post.
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Help needed please
Where can I find the horses balloted out? Forty |
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Forty, they'll be running in the Silver Cambridgeshire on Friday I would have thought.
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