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mary hinge
14 Sep 13 17:16
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Nov 01
| Topic/replies: 272 | Blogger: mary hinge's blog
Ascription was very impressive there, soft ground virtually guaranteed at Newmarket, has to go well
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Report boy wonder 07 September 24, 2013 1:42 PM BST
yes I to like tha'ir but slightly worrying is weakness on here I also like Gabriel the great
Report judorick September 24, 2013 2:01 PM BST
yes there's a lot of data to take into account and market signals will no doubt prove important, then there's the draw, pace profile, going and so on
Report rogerthebutler September 24, 2013 2:15 PM BST
I guess that's why this is the ante-post forum!

Wink
Report judorick September 24, 2013 2:43 PM BST
indeed! it's like solving a puzzle putting all the clues together to come up with an answer, just some of the clues (like the final decs, jockey bookings, draw, going, wind and weather and market moves) don't come along til later in the week
Report sintonian September 24, 2013 3:45 PM BST
Just did a RP search on some Henry Candy stats. He has a 16% strike rate at Newmaket overall, 7-43 showing a small loss. But when you narrow those winners down they all appear to be 3yos, 7/19, 37% strike rate for an LSP of £23. He is also 4/13 with his 3yos this month, 31% strike rate for an LSP of £21. No wonder this horse is being backed imo. Anyway, I've backed him again, eachway, at 20/1. A couple of firms are going 5 places.

Are there any quotes knocking around? Something must have initiated the widespread cut this morning. He was 28/1 with VC.
Report johnnyrant September 24, 2013 4:07 PM BST
Maybe the form of the yard, the fact he looks certain to get in, & also the weather outlook for dry weather at Newmarket - he's better on decent ground (yes, I know he won on soft as a 2-y-o). Certainly looked impressive when he got some pace to race at when he won at Sandown.
Report johnnyrant September 24, 2013 4:11 PM BST
I was surprised Gosden pulled out Trade Commissioner - I'm convinced his optimum conditions are 9f & fast ground. Yard seem to have got it into their head he wants cut & 10f - which is too far on the wrong ground, & which made his Newbury effort last weekend that much more commendable.
Report rogerthebutler September 24, 2013 4:34 PM BST
Isn't there some virus hitting Gosden's yard at present or did I just dream that one up?
Report custardcream64 September 24, 2013 6:01 PM BST
Last year's winner BRONZE ANGEL catches my eye at this stage . Trainer not had a great season to say the least but interesting returning here after almost a year's absence.
GRAPHIC stays on strongly in his races over a mile and this trip should suit , only doubt for me is will he get outpaced at some stage?
Report sintonian September 25, 2013 8:32 AM BST
Fergus Sweeney rides COH. James Doyle on the Gosden/Abdullah horse Seek Again.
Report saddo September 25, 2013 9:25 AM BST
J P Murtagh on Educate.
Report sintonian September 25, 2013 11:52 AM BST
Koral really are an appalling firm. Currently have a 10/1 Fav, then 5 others at 12/1. Disgusting.
Report sintonian September 25, 2013 11:52 AM BST
Yes that's true Roger, not how serious it is though.
Report sintonian September 25, 2013 11:53 AM BST
* not sure
Report mac99 September 26, 2013 8:47 AM BST
Bronze Angel last years winner was my early selection , was  hoping they would get Buick  again to ride the horse , they have missed  a trick there if the Horse  is properly  fit   as  He  takes a fair bit of shaking up  to get going  and Buick is the Man for that  Job in the wide open spaces of Newmarket
Report BJG September 26, 2013 11:36 AM BST
NO. DRAW    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
126     210445    Area Fifty One14    5    9-10    Richard Fahey50    William Twiston-Davies3     105    104    112
219    201026    Belgian Bill13 tp      5    9-9    George Baker38    Pat Cosgrave     104    97    112
34     010035    Educate35    4    9-9    Ismail Mohammed40    Johnny Murtagh     104    103    114
413     861595    Field Of Dream21 b      6    9-8    Jamie Osborne64    Adam Kirby     103    106    115
515     020100    Prince Of Johanne37 p      7    9-8    Tom Tate50    Graham Lee     103    106    116
632     728614    Strictly Silver35 p      4    9-7    Alan Bailey88    Robert Winston     102    93    115
729     626121    Ascription14 4xht    4    9-7    Hugo Palmer63    Joseph O'Brien     102    101    120
822     61315-    Bronze Angel350 p      4    9-6    Marcus Tregoning50    George Baker     101    96    114
912    670915    Marcret28      6    9-5    James Unett    Tom McLaughlin     100    104    112
1011    793242    Arsaadi21 b      4    9-4    William Haggas53    Ahmed Ajtebi     99    95    115
1121     511123    Robert The Painter7 v    5    9-4    David O´Meara32    Daniel Tudhope     99    109    112
1223     634702    Chapter Seven7      4    9-3    Stuart Williams60    Jamie Spencer     98    115    119
1316     10-400    King´s Warrior77    6    9-3    Peter Chapple-Hyam67    Jack Duern5     98    93    115
1427     750-40    Fury101 p      5    9-3    William Haggas53     98    94    114
158     226107    Danchai28 b1      4    9-3    William Haggas53    William Buick     98    98    115
166    21-017    Nine Realms21    4    9-2    William Haggas53    Liam Jones     97    106    115
179     31261    Sam Sharp35      7    9-2    Ian Williams44    Paul Hanagan     97    100    114
1830     464435    Proud Chieftain16 p    5    9-2    Clifford Lines    Ted Durcan     97    88    112
192     281022    Tha´ir16    3    9-2    Saeed bin Suroor50    Silvestre De Sousa     102    94    116
201     421492    Gabrial The Great14    4    9-1    Luca Cumani68    Andrea Atzeni     96    107    114
2125     41104    The Rectifier7 t    6    9-1    Seamus Durack67    Seamie Heffernan     96    111    116
2231     081003    Captain Bertie33    5    9-1    Jane Chapple-Hyam22    Pat Smullen     96    108    113
2318    113306    Queensberry Rules37 t      3    9-0    William Haggas53    Ryan Moore     100    105    113
2435    112603    King George River36      3    9-0    Alan Bailey88    Robert Tart3     100    100    114
2534     701225    Red Avenger36      3    9-0    Ed Dunlop69    Gerald Mosse     100    106    113
2633     864020    Dance And Dance27 p      7    9-0    Ed Vaughan50    Jim Crowley     95    103    116
2710     293312    Forgive21      4    8-13    Richard Hannon61    Richard Hughes     94    109    118
2828    49153    Code Of Honor34    3    8-13    Henry Candy56    Fergus Sweeney     99    83    115
2924     543121    Top Notch Tonto21 4x    3    8-13    Brian Ellison50    Dale Swift     99    110    122
3020     743411    Graphic21 4xp    4    8-13    William Haggas53    Frankie Dettori     94    100    112
3114     116570    Boonga Roogeta49      4    8-12    Peter Charalambous100    Rosie Jessop3     93    106    115
3217     12-124    Seek Again21      3    8-12    John Gosden76    James Doyle     98    90    110
337     586234    Jack´s Revenge35 tb    5    8-12    George Baker38    Oisin Murphy5     93    106    115
343     422133    Tres Coronas77    6    8-12    David Barron35    Mickael Barzalona     93    107    115
355     221311    Pacific Heights17 4x    4    8-12    Brian Ellison50    Philip Prince5     93    100    115
Report boy wonder 07 September 26, 2013 11:38 AM BST
I had a bit on Gabriel the great 27 and their 44 on here and they are drawn 1 and 2 not sure that is the place to be
Report boy wonder 07 September 26, 2013 11:39 AM BST
tha'ir sorry
Report Stevie Gerrard September 26, 2013 11:53 AM BST
Looks a tough puzzle this year. The one horse in the race that I feel is a possible group horse is Bronze Angel, very impressed with how he won it last year and hopefully he can become the first horse to win back to back cambridgeshires since Prince De Galles in 1970.
Report sintonian September 26, 2013 12:21 PM BST
Has this race ever been won by a horse having his first run of the season? Surely a very hard thing to do given nature of the race.
Report sintonian September 26, 2013 12:24 PM BST
Of his 7 entries Willie Haggas is running 6. Scattergun or not?
Report BlazingWalker September 26, 2013 12:24 PM BST
After firmly being in the Short Squeeze camp , its jump ship time to Queensbury Rules doubt he will go off anywhere near 14/1 on the day.
Report sintonian September 26, 2013 12:36 PM BST
FYI - Sly Bet are now going 6 places for anyone who did not bet ante-post.
Report Forty September 26, 2013 1:29 PM BST
Help needed please

Where can I find the horses balloted out?

Forty
Report thornton reed September 26, 2013 1:44 PM BST
Forty, they'll be running in the Silver Cambridgeshire on Friday I would have thought.
Report Stevie Gerrard September 26, 2013 4:43 PM BST
Sint, chivalry did it in 2003
Report Stephen_notloB September 26, 2013 6:59 PM BST
I think Seek Again could be the group horse lurker, I'm hoping so as I have been all over it like a ten bob suit all week!
Report betilyerded September 26, 2013 8:05 PM BST
Jamie Osbourne should have won this a few years back with Docofthebay if Emlyn Hughes hadnt given it one of his "special" rides - the type that he always reserves for when I back one of his mounts - and I think he could do the trick with his Bunbury Cup winner Field Of Dream. Yeah hes exposed, yeah he hasnt got the 10f profile that all the stattos will have you believe you need and rated 103 carrying 9 stone whatever is going to make life a touch hard BUT if anything this horse has been crying out for a strongly run 9f all his career and i think its only because he always runs well over a straight 7 or 8 in the big races that this race has been overlooked in the past. He reminds me of Icriedforyou who was a similarly exposed type but who always ran on well over 7f.
His runs in the past 2 Royal Hunt Cups proves he stays at least a mile, his last run was a typical finish with a flourish effort and with Adam Kirkby back in the saddle I reckon he has a good ew shout at 33-1 first 5 places.
My other poke would be Strictly Silver at 25's, simply because ever since his run at York last year I had him marked down as a horse with a big race in him. His 2nd at Newmarket earlier this year worked out well, thought he won a touch cosily time before last and reckon he did really well at York last time when carrying 10 stone in soft ground (best form on good or better). Won over 9f on aw earlier this year and excuses for all his other defeats this season (ground, returning after a break and too far a trip). Won the same handicap off a higher mark that Tazeez won too and finally Robert Winston who had an 8-32 record on 4yo+ for the stable a few years back but only got 3 rides in the past 3 years, now suddenly riding again for the yard recently and had a first and second for owner of Strictly Silver last week. Its Winstons only booked ride of the day and I smell a plot!!
Good luck everybody
Report judorick September 26, 2013 8:09 PM BST
^ He is on my "take it on the chin if he proves you wrong" list

This is the list of potential lurkers that I predict are not capable of winning off their marks and this race it includes Seek Again, Queensbury Rules, Top Notch Tonto, Educate

I have now completed my short list of contenders and backed a couple but really waiting to see if there is any track bias and whether rain falls between now and the race
Report judorick September 26, 2013 8:10 PM BST
^ refers to Stephen's post
Report GoldCupWinner September 26, 2013 8:31 PM BST
King George River for me. Given a break after his excellent 2nd in a listed race back in April. Didn't beat a horse in his next 2 races but not notably showed signs of returning to form last time and Just have a feeling he may have been laid out for this ever since that listed race.
Report betilyerded September 26, 2013 8:40 PM BST
So Alan Bailey wins it one way or another Laugh
Report judorick September 26, 2013 8:40 PM BST
another on my 'take it on the chin' list

or the 'I'm too chicken to back it' list more like Laugh
Report slowerthanjohn September 26, 2013 9:01 PM BST
William Haggas a man to respect in big handicaps, which of his is best? Well I'm hoping Queensberry Rules, progressive and looked to be crying out for a step up in trip after Britannia 3rd. Then the icing on the cake the booking of Ryan Moore, as Haggas rates him as the man ;) so all in all should go very close. But I backed Stencive in the John Smiths :( so that says it all!

Also do like Educate, looks tailor made for this, goes on any ground, has form at 1m and 10f so the trip no problem. Likes a fast pace to run at and Murtagh sticks with him after a less than inspired ride at Haydock! The negative is can't understand if this race was the prime target why run at Goodwood and get put up 4lbs? not ideal for such a tight handicap.
Report judorick September 26, 2013 9:10 PM BST
I've backed Rex Imperator and Danchai for big handicap wins from the Haggas yard this year and the common factor between them was that they had demonstrated, to me at least, on the track that they had the potential to run at least 10lbs above their BHA marks - and did so. Danchai ran an RPR of 104 off 92 and Rex Imperator ran an RPR 116 off 104

None of the Haggas horses in this race have persuaded me that they have anywhere near the necessary amount in hand, apart from Graphic, and even that is a bit of supposition through the improvement Ascription made.

Haggas has not even had a horse placed in this race and that may be why he is firing so many bullets at it but I don't think he will be collecting
Report mackies-fc September 26, 2013 9:13 PM BST
Nine Realms for me, definitely more to come from him imo. Wouldn't be surprised if either of Alan Baileys won, KGR definitely aimed at the race. Backed Royal Prize in the silver tomorrow as well. Good luck.
Report sintonian September 26, 2013 9:28 PM BST
Only me and Uncle on Code Of Honor then. Laugh Lots of the fancied horses are draw 19+, reckon the winner has to come from that lot tbh.
Report penzance September 26, 2013 9:43 PM BST
like an AP bet,but done something I can't
remember doing before,backed 3 in a race.
Field Of Dream @80
Dance And Dance@36
Strictly Silver@36.
   GL ALL
Report slowerthanjohn September 26, 2013 9:43 PM BST
Missile was 2nd in 1996 for Haggas beaten by the then Cambridgeshire King Jeremy Glover.
Report penzance September 26, 2013 9:46 PM BST
did Clifton Fox win that year?
Report judorick September 26, 2013 10:09 PM BST
I didn't go as far back as 1996 but the point is still valid
Report spothediference September 26, 2013 10:25 PM BST
Care to divulge ur shortlist yet judo?
Report judorick September 26, 2013 10:33 PM BST
not just yet mate, consolation race clues to track bias first, there's seven on the list so will cut it down tomorrow

going also important
Report spothediference September 26, 2013 10:44 PM BST
No hassle judo look forward to reading ur verdict as always.
Report slowerthanjohn September 26, 2013 10:47 PM BST
Clifton Fox did indeed win, still painful. You only need to look at last years renewal to see Haggas ran Mukhadram to finish 5th. Shows what a difficult race it is to win.

I'm probably wrong but don't fancy Top Notch Tonto or Ascripition unless it rains heavily.
Report judorick September 26, 2013 10:59 PM BST
I agree, Tonto and Ascription not on my list

is a hard race to win, get the feeling one of them is going to go off at a million and tow a whole bunch along, bit like the Royal Hunt cup, and either one tracking the pace will stay on or one just behind the leaders will pick them up as they tire.

Just can't quite see who is gonna blast off the hardest but will be watching in play
Report slowerthanjohn September 26, 2013 11:11 PM BST
Just hope none of my jockeys try to do what Hughes did in the Hunt Cup! Tried to be too clever went to the wrong side and never got a run. He did apologise but no good when you've done your hard earned!

If last years winner Bronze Angel had ran this season I think he'd be a big player but can't have first time out. I know its been done but in this case not the plan.

Queensberry Rules also wears a 1st time tongue tie? interested if it makes any difference?
Report judorick September 26, 2013 11:29 PM BST
I don't like em when they are keen and hard pullers, Moore might be the man to get the best but Queensbury more of an in running play imo rather than before the off

be glad when it's over been thinking about nothing else since Ayr
Report slowerthanjohn September 26, 2013 11:45 PM BST
Really like his Royal Ascot 3rd where he finished ahead of Wentworth and Cape Peron who went to be the 1-2 in the big mile handicap at Goodwood. Think the cavalry charge will help him settle and pretty sure he is the Haggas 1st string because of the Moore booking.
Report John.W.Henry. September 27, 2013 7:43 AM BST
King George River is the really interesting runner for me. Extremely progressive on the sand during the winter he carried that progression through to the turf and into the fielden stakes over course and distance, where he proceeded to give the subsequent French derby winner, Intello a minor scare as he surged through with him through the final 1/4mile only to give best to him 100yards from home but still able to give a 7length beating to the subsequent guineas runner up glory awaits.

Now there are reasons to suspect that KGR may have been slightly flattered by his proximity to Intello, however, there is no mistaking the comprehensive way he dispatched Glory awaits into 3rd.

Following the race we are allowed an insight into minor setbacks and targets for the horse and I have c and p them below :

Bailey was delighted with King George River in finishing second behind the Andre Fabre-trained Intello in the Listed Feilden Stakes and being seven lengths ahead of the third, Glory Awaits. 
"I was very pleased with his performance. He pulled a muscle during the race. He'll be OK shortly and is much better now, but he was lame when he came in," said Bailey.
"It was a good run. We are just playing it by ear at the moment, we'll just see how he is. You can't make them ready. You have to play it very carefully. It's very easy to go one step forward and three steps back if you go too quick.
"We gave him an entry in the Dante (at York), but whether he'll be ready for that you wouldn't know. He will get a mile and a quarter, no problem. There are lots of options for him

The former Aidan O'Brien inmate finished second behind French Derby winner Intello in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket in April, with 2000 Guineas runner-up Glory Awaits behind in third.
Connections have so far resisted some big offers for the three-year-old, with Bailey considering a crack at the Hong Kong Derby next March, won this year by the former John Oxx-trained Akeed Mofeed.

"He picked up an injury when he ran at Newmarket," said the Newmarket handler.
"He's back cantering now but I'd say he's still six or seven weeks away from a run. It was a bad enough injury but he's a very good horse so I won't rush him.
"We've had lots of people on trying to buy him as his last race has worked out so well. It was a stifle injury. Ryan (Moore) though he was coming to win and then he felt it go.
"Next year we can think of some really nice races. I've no doubt in my mind he'll be at his best over 12 furlongs and we're thinking of the Hong Kong Derby


He was off for 3 months and returned to race against his elders in the group 2 sky bet stakes and finished well beaten but that only tells part of the story, granted it was a muddling affair but if you study him closely around the 4-3 pole he looks as if he may well win. He appeared to blow up and was eased off and spared an unnecessary hard race.

He next appeared at the goodwood festival meeting only 5 days later. This was a strange piece of race planning for sure and he never featured after being held up at the back, briefly being pulled out wider entering the straight before defeat was readily accepted.

This could be classed as a disappointing effort for sure but I Suspect there were mitigating circumstances which probably governed the run.

three weeks later he turns up at York and again is relatively easy to back but this time we get to see far more of what he might be capable of still.

Held up again in the rear he made a big move towards the inside part of the track to gradually get in contention but at the same time, the ridiculous well treated short squeeze was motoring down the outside making his winning move.

As your eyes were drawn to SS over on the far side KGR looked momentarily as if he was going to be swallowed up for 3rd as his effort looked to be petering out but not a bit of it, he surged again to secure the minor honour and appeared to finish full of running. Its well worth taking a look at that effort again as many would have focused on the very impressive winner.

This was undoubtedly a massive step forward. The subsequent efforts of those around him to slightly question the run but not that of the 5th home Hey Dude who managed a silver medal behind tonto in the haydock group 2 race.

So there we have it. the evidence in favour of KGR.

At a general 25-1 he is well worth an interest even on the intello run over c and d alone.

Sure he may not have the best of the draw being wide on the stand side wing but we have no way of knowing that is set in stone. The nearest potential pace appears to be in the 21 and 26 boxes of RTP & Area 51 but if I was Mr Bailey and I really wanted to have a far crack at winning this race, I would send the g-teed stayer STRICTLY SILVER to the front near side from the high draw to ensure at the very least he was able to keep KGR in the race.  At the same time, if there wasn't much pace on as looks likely on this side, he may pinch an easy lead and steal the race, if the bias did happen to be with him.

Good Luck to backers and layers alike. Happy
Report judorick September 27, 2013 9:31 AM BST
Well with the weather set to stay dry and the going set to be good to firm I think it's safe to get involved

http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/courseservices/NEWMARKET/maps/27-09-2013/811.jpg

My final short list was:

Tha'ir
Code of Honour
Danchai
Graphic
Chapter Seven
Red Avenger

I have taken 2 points ew 16/1 CODE OF HONOUR with 5 places and the tiny bet SlyBet let me have 6 places

and 1 point ew 40/1 THA'IR with BetVC 5 places

so far that is, I might well add some more and will be watching the weather closely as both those want fast
Report unclepuncle September 27, 2013 9:47 AM BST
I've added Strictly Silver @ 40 on here to my antepost bets on Jacks Revenge and Code Of Honor.

Will be gutted if Educate wins having gone in large on him at Haydock when he would have won easily but for traffic problems - but even with Murtagh onboard his higher mark and his poor form in 2 runs at New'Mkt put me off.
I've also looked time and again at Haggas's runners as he is to be repsected and Danchai was my biggest winner of the year in the John Smiths, but I just can't fancy any of them. In fact of his I'd probably stick with Danchai.

Good luck all.
Report dunlaying September 27, 2013 3:56 PM BST
Fury e/w for me. He was co favourite for the race last year off of 106 and has only had two races since. The handicapper seems to have been generous in dropping him to 98 as there was nothing wrong with his comeback run and he was not disgraced in the Hunt Cup .
Report Millerracing67 September 27, 2013 5:01 PM BST
With the ground becoming faster by the min, some of these to the front of the betting could be taken out, as their best runs have come on softish ground.
Think Red Avenger is interesting at a price for a few ££ ew 2moro, he will love the fast ground & gets 10f which is a plus in this race as is the jock booking.
Report sintonian September 27, 2013 5:08 PM BST
Silver Camb first 5 home filled by middle-to-high, mostly, though it's just one race.
Report GoldCupWinner September 27, 2013 5:15 PM BST
Definitely think middle is the place to be which is worrying for my fancy drawn right on the rail.
Report GoldCupWinner September 27, 2013 5:18 PM BST
Another boost for last years race as well which has worked out really well. Bronze Angel drawn in the middle, just the huge lay off is a concern.
Report rogerthebutler September 27, 2013 5:33 PM BST
Wouldn't be so quick to go with those drawn in the middle for the 'real thing' tomorrow.

There's a serious number of hold-up horses berthed in the middle third of the draw, with only (on my figures)GRAPHIC and ROBERT THE PAINTER (in stalls 20  and 21) likely to put the pace to the race in this section of the draw.
Report Stevie Gerrard September 27, 2013 10:00 PM BST
The draw wouldn't bother me too much as one of the best times of today was the Zurigha race and they raced on the far rail in that race. I know Penitent didn't show much when sticking to that rail in the next but I think the ground was against him and he had a hardish race recently on soft. Really I think it will just come down to where the pace is. You cant trust jocks anyway as remember a couple of years ago the whole field came stands side despite the far side looking favoured before the race.
Report armpits September 27, 2013 10:03 PM BST
Anyone know off hand what the going has been for the last few renewals?
Report mac99 September 27, 2013 10:51 PM BST
I think Bronze Angel  has the best form in the race  by a few pounds , but if the firming  ground has gone against him  then  Danchai   comes into it  at least for a place  , he was able to handle the early pace when he won at York over ten furlongs  , just cant see him out of a place with  Buick up , also having a small bet on  Prince of Johan  a  very game horse  who is well suited by  firmer ground , looked as good as ever when he  won at Sandown   a couple of runs back and of course won the race   two or three years ago  gl
Report mac99 September 27, 2013 11:02 PM BST
Prince of Johanne*
Report rogerthebutler September 28, 2013 9:34 AM BST
From my midweek shortlist, I've sided with FORGIVE for my biggest bet.

Ground is coming right for her and she runs well at Newmarket. Draw in 10 looks good as far as you can tell, but the braindead jockeys factor so eloquently expressed by Tom Segal in the Weekender, means any analysis of draw and pace can go out the window the moment the stalls open. Anyway, Richard Hughes isn't the worst to have on top in this situation and Field of Dream and Boonga Rongetta should give her a tow into the race.


She has been running on well over shorter trips and has a third on soft ground at Goodwood over 9 furlongs so today's distance isn't a worry. She has tactical speed, is well weighted, sufficiently mature without being exposed and is thought she is capable of black type and at 33/1 the price isn't shabby either.

Of the Haggas contingent I'm afraid it's QUEENSBERRY RULES for the reasons outlined by many previously. Ditto KING GEORGE RIVER if he's not drawn out of it on the stands side.

Finally, JACKS REVENGE, who is in good form over over 7 f last time out and a step back up in trip (never won below a mile) should suit. He goes well in big fields and man-of-the-moment Oisin Murphy's claim is like gold dust here. I've no doubt he can execute the waiting tactics needed.

Good luck to all players - a fascinating race and one of my favourites of the entire year. Anyone tipping the winner can dine out on it for the next 12 months!
Report GoldCupWinner September 28, 2013 9:59 AM BST
Forgive won't win. The form is ****! King George River for me! Would have Bronze Angel if trainer in better form.
Report Facts September 28, 2013 10:21 AM BST
Has to be GRAPHIC for me, now that the ground has gone against Ascription( assume it wont run)
Report SOULDANCER September 28, 2013 10:27 AM BST
Jack's Revenge e.w. 20-1. 2lb lower than last year,8th, with apprentice of the moment onboard. Had doubts last year after 60 day break, didn't think he'd be fit enough. No such problem this year so hopeful of a big run.
Report judorick September 28, 2013 10:59 AM BST
As I was saying earlier in the thread, plenty of soft ground horses were left in but already several are non runners (Chapter Seven, Top Notch Tonto) and Ascription is 99% certain to be withdrawn around noon if there is no significant rain.


I've ended up having these on my side


Tha'ir & Code of Honour (main bets for decent stakes, each way 5 and 6 places)


and win only savers on these (quite cheap because big odds)


Forgive
Graphic
King George River
Red Avenger


Fingers crossed one of them wins
Report FELTFAIR September 28, 2013 11:19 AM BST
Impossible event but as I will be attending have backed each-way two top pilots, Moore and Ajtebi.
Report sintonian September 28, 2013 11:25 AM BST
Code Of Honor only bet for me in this, eachway at 25/1 & 20/1. Slightly concerned about his stall in 28, especially so given the two non-runners are near him, but no doubt in my mind he is well handicapped off 99.
Report judorick September 28, 2013 12:19 PM BST
fingers crossed Sint, he's my main hope too
Report dunlaying September 28, 2013 12:30 PM BST
I have added Captain Bertie to my portfolio. He has been given every ounce that the official handicapper could fairly give him but it may just be that an extended trip is what he needs. So,with hope rather than confidence I had a couple of shillings at big odds.
Report HaylingBilly September 28, 2013 1:21 PM BST
Entered the fray. Its THAIR for me.
Report ThunderRoad September 28, 2013 3:16 PM BST
Thair for me also. Crazy price. GL
Report judorick September 28, 2013 3:46 PM BST
Code of Honour into 12.5, Tha'ir into 19.5

Love
Report unclepuncle September 28, 2013 3:56 PM BST
How annoying was that.Cry
Report Stevie Gerrard September 28, 2013 3:56 PM BST
bad luck with code of honour, thought he was going to get up
Report judorick September 28, 2013 3:59 PM BST
gutted
Report FatoteSport September 28, 2013 3:59 PM BST
What did Code of Honour trade into? 1.9ish?
Report sintonian September 28, 2013 4:02 PM BST
Beat in a photo. Call me a pocket talker but that is a bad ride for such a well handicapped horse. GUTTED.
Report sintonian September 28, 2013 4:03 PM BST
Jockey had him right out the back!
Report unclepuncle September 28, 2013 4:05 PM BST
Educate was drawn on the wrong side but Code Of Honor was given a crazy amount to do and would have won in another 2 strides.
Report sintonian September 28, 2013 4:05 PM BST
Speechless tbh.
Report saddo September 28, 2013 4:07 PM BST
Ta, dickie, not a single wd from the ante post clique. Happy
Report judorick September 28, 2013 4:09 PM BST
switched right round the whole field to the centre and then back to the rail, gets beat a head

ffs
Report judorick September 28, 2013 4:11 PM BST
that's coz most of us were on code of honour and feel aggrieved we haven't collected
Report Stevie Gerrard September 28, 2013 4:13 PM BST
wd saddo and you put it up early
Report sintonian September 28, 2013 4:18 PM BST
No Clique on here Saddo. Me and Judo have argued before on the National Hunt forum. We're just licking our wounds from that ride on Code of Honor. For me it was the difference between a £1k return or £5+. Sorry to be vulgar, like, but that's the facts of the matter.

Anyway, well done with Educate! Bookies have taken a beating today.
Report Stevie Gerrard September 28, 2013 4:33 PM BST
btw saddo what price did you manage to get on it?
Report rogerthebutler September 28, 2013 5:13 PM BST
Well done saddo.

I got it all wrong and can't fathom form for love nor money at present - it'll turn round; it always does.

No clique here though my friend.
Report HaylingBilly September 28, 2013 5:32 PM BST
Congratulations for all on EDUCATE. Saddo great pick and early too !

Massive commiserations for those on CODE OF HONOUR........I would be hacked off with that ride tbh.
Report slowerthanjohn September 28, 2013 6:08 PM BST
Thankfully the line came in timeGrin Educate deserved that, the race looked ideal just the fact he'd gone up 4lb put me off going in big but happy enough, though you can never have enough on a winner! It was mentioned he'd ran badly at Newmarket before but I'm sure it was the July course.
Report Stevie Gerrard September 28, 2013 6:18 PM BST
don't forget john both those Newmarket runs were before he was gelded and that operation seemed to settle the horse down as he was a bit free in both of those races.
Report unclepuncle September 28, 2013 7:40 PM BST
I mentioned Educate might not like the track and Murtagh said he wasn't happy hence him drifting all the way from the far side once he met the dip - that and the penalty for running at Goodwood were the only things puttng me off (he'd been on my mind as my Cambridgeshire horse for about 4 months.Cry)
Report rogerthebutler September 28, 2013 8:42 PM BST
Yeah, it's sad when you're horse gets chinned in a photo but Educate stays straight and he wins by much further, bad ride or not on the runner up.

Anyway, it's like a cross between a rhino and an elephant - not relevant.
Report papa laz September 28, 2013 9:16 PM BST
Unlucky Judo and the rest with Code of Honour, an 'unenterprising ride'...Impressed again with you Judo, u will win big soon mate with your analysis no worries...luck evens its self out...
An enjoyable ante-post thread again, roll on the next big handicap
Report spothediference September 29, 2013 2:20 AM BST
unlucky judo mate so close but 3 in a row was asking for too much lol.hope u still had profitable weekend,keep up the good work.look forward to reading ur thoughts again.
Report SOULDANCER September 29, 2013 9:16 AM BST
good call Saddo, hope you won loads.
Report ashleigh September 29, 2013 1:34 PM BST
anyone know if yeager was taken out or balloted out?
Report roobuck September 29, 2013 3:55 PM BST
Well done all those who collected on the winner.

I too wanted Code of Honor to prevail but I don't really subscribe it was down to the jockey. The horse was drawn high in the largest group and by being held up, it have the jockey the options as to where to make his run. If he had been mid pack and closer to the rail, would he have got all the splits?

As it was, by making his move up the middle he was never impeded and had a clear long run at it. The fact is he won his side easily and in a race of over 30 runners that's all you can do imo. The winner didn't have anywhere as near as good a tow into the race and drifted markedly losing far more ground and potential momentum than Code of Honor did.

All things considered, think Educate was a worthy winner. Always too easy to blame the jock
Report mac99 September 30, 2013 7:26 AM BST
well done educate  and coh supporters,  only two in it  really , some smart  pickers here  well done all
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