Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 2391 comments are related to the topic:
2000 GUINEAS (2014)
2000 GUINEAS (2014)
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 2,391
|
By:
Brigust, you probably won't agree, as I know you like your horses from years gone by, but I rate Australia's 3rd place finish 1lb better than Nashwan's 1 length beating of Exbourne. I'm certainly not saying he'll add the Eclipse and King George to his tally, like Nashwan did, as you just never know how horses will come out of races, but I think he can do something similar in the Derby.
|
|
By:
Brigust if you had 7/1 Australia and did not trade out then no sympathy I`m afraid.
 |
|
By:
Exactly my point Sandown. When you consider Parbold is about the same horse as Shifting Power an therefore WC should have won the Gns on that form and considering Austalia is clearly a better horse then the result is well skewed for me.
Figgis I never was a Nashwan fan and, like Frankel, benefited from a poor era. I thought this was a better Gns as well and Nashwan was well backed for his largely because there were no stars in the race to start with. |
|
By:
brigust1
You may not have read all of the post race posts but the winner finished in a split faster than any winner in the past 10 years. In fact on the Derby thread I saod that looking at my data base, only Zafonic |& Kings Best finished faster allowing for going. Only Dancing Brave was even faster ( in a slowly run race) and proved to be a middle distance horse. I don't think the winner will stay 12f - he is too fast - but many think he has the breeding for it. On running style, I don't agree but I do think that he is a good winner - ptrojects to 129 on my figures - and he can win more 8f races. (Better figs than WC ) |
|
By:
I did trade out Felt as I stated well before the race but as I was away I did have a bet. I left instructions with a mate to take 4s if it was on the day.
I did read that Sandown but that only further leads me to believe the race turned into a sprint. |
|
By:
I do still have a 20/1 Derby/Arc double.
 (Sorry if that's being smug). |
|
By:
Sandown, are you using your own timings this year or Turftrax? As at least one of the Turftrax 1000 Guineas sectionals looks decidedly iffy, to say the least, not for the first time, and gives rise to doubts about their accuracy elsewhere.
|
|
By:
[u]but I rate Australia's 3rd place finish 1lb better than Nashwan's 1 length beating of Exbourne
Can't have that. Nashwan ran to 128 on my figs Australia ran to 115. Such is the room for differences of opinion.  |
|
By:
Sandown, are you using your own timings this year or Turftrax? As at least one of the Turftrax 1000 Guineas sectionals looks decidedly iffy, to say the least, not for the first time, and gives rise to doubts about their accuracy elsewhere.
I'm relying on Turftrax. Which one looks iffy? |
|
By:
You`re allowed to be smug but not a smart arse.
|
|
By:
The obvious one is the final furlong differences between the winner and second, the winner supposedly running slightly quicker, when anyone can see the second gained inside the last furlong.
|
|
By:
Can't have that. Nashwan ran to 128 on my figs Australia ran to 115. Such is the room for differences of opinion.
So you would also have Exbourne winning this year's Guineas very easily? Also Danehill and Markofdistiction would be comfortable winners? As you use 2lbs per length it would mean Monsagem, Lunar Mover, etc, would've also gone close? Possibly you have used a sectional mark up for Nashwan in relation to the close up runners, but I wouldn't expect his mark up to be much more than Exbourne who seemed to be a similar distance behind him for the last few furlongs. For me, there's no way Exbourne could be rated better than this year's first 3. |
|
By:
Figgis
I can't get too excited by these historic comparisons. I do know that horses get dragged into running faster in coming behind a good winner than they are capable of repeating, so if you are right about Exbourne (dont know if you are) then that could be an explanation |
|
By:
Did not have much to say about Australia before the guineas because his form was somewhat obscure ,his reputation was what made him second favorite for the 2000 not what he had done on the Track .
I think he ran really well in the 2000 , he was up against Toomore( group one Winner) and War Command the same, they were going at it more or less from the Off ,Toormore did too much and was done for earlier than he should have been as was War command and others . There appears to be evidence that the first half of the race was run a little quicker on the stand side than the far side , this and the fact that the group one winners were on the Stand side leads me to believe that Australia must be in some way exceptional, they went faster than was sensible owing to the unfortunate split and yet he did not drop out as others up with the pace on the stand side did . I do not in any way accept that J Obrien was responsible for his defeat , that seems to me to be an unfair reading of the Race as it unfolded . |
|
By:
Personally I'm not interested in arguments about who was best, etc, but it's only by using historic comparisons that I can be sure of having an accurate scale and knowing what can be expected.
|
|
By:
The obvious one is the final furlong differences between the winner and second, the winner supposedly running slightly quicker, when anyone can see the second gained inside the last furlong.
Does look odd, I admit. Perhaps worth a query to Turftrax? Could be a parallax issue. |
|
By:
Given that the stand side runners in the Guineas may well have had a tougher time of it than the far side runners, it follows that Shifting Power may have run a bit of a stormer ....Hughs had better watch out that Fallon does not get the spare ride in the Irish 2000 if that is where he is going next
 |
|
By:
Sandown 07 May 14 20:39
The obvious one is the final furlong differences between the winner and second, the winner supposedly running slightly quicker, when anyone can see the second gained inside the last furlong. Does look odd, I admit. Perhaps worth a query to Turftrax? Could be a parallax issue. Is this in relation to the 1000 Guineas? |
|
By:
Yes, geoff
|
|
By:
bought the 1 day pass on timeform before to compare my figures to theirs.
For the 2000 they had Tfr 125 124 123 tfig 125 124 123 1000g tfr 113 112 111 tfig 105 105 104 so quite similar to my own figures. the topspeed figures in the RP however seem very low and both the 1000 and 2000 guineas way behind their figures from previous years. |
|
By:
I would like to see both Toormore and War Command go for the Irish guineas as I think both horses under performed to some degree and it could be in the Irish Guineas we'll get the questions as to how good each are answered presuming we get decent ground, I suspect neither of them are going to be superstars but surely they are better than they showed in the english guineas.
|
|
By:
No arguments with the form figures, they have a 12lbs difference between the 2 Guineas, I have 11lbs on time, although the fillies version was compromised by the way it was run. I fail to see how there could be a massive 20lbs difference on timefigures, even with the knowledge the 1000 wasn't strongly run.
|
|
By:
Figgis the 2000 was 0.79s quicker and the ground had quickened up on the sunday, surely has to be around 18-20lb better on timefigures?
|
|
By:
Stevie, I have the ground quicker in general on Sunday, but I have the 2000 allowance faster than some others that day. Whether or not I'm right about that, taking the Sunday card in isolation, there is no way I could rate the 1000 so low without having the other races ridiculously low.
|
|
By:
It's pretty likely WC will go for the Irish 2000 Gns as may Toormore. The Guineas was probably allof the best 3 year olds at a mile and with the winner likely to go for the Derby, Kingman would find Ascot an easier mile, Australia Derby, Shifting Power French 2000, Charm Spirit (could go to Ireland), Noos to July Cup, Kingston Hill to Derby that only leaves Toomore and WC.
|
|
By:
Thanx Figgis .
Its an optical illusion that Lightning Thunder finished well and was making rapid progress on Miss France. Its difficult to comprehend watching the race from the stands side camera,(and i wouldnt have known otherwise) however straight after the race CH4 showed the best part of the last furlong from the opposite side of the track and Lightning Thunder appeared to be slightly ahead and it was Miss France and Ihtimal that appeared to finish better. A classic example on the straight tracks with camera looking down the course whereby we all get fooled by the camera angle. RP comments Lightning Thunder: strong run to chase winner towards finish, never quite getting to winner viewed from the other camera angle the comments would have been different. |
|
By:
good stuff geoff, that one had me baffled.
|
|
By:
Geoff, I agree that the appearance that LT was making progress towards the line was exaggerated by the angle, but I still find it hard to believe she was closer at the furlong pole than the post.
|
|
By:
Figgis, my argument re WC before the race was whether he would have been trained for the Guineas or not. Imo, and the evidence suggests too, he was not. He'd been layed at massive odds all winter and after the race AOB starts talking about how badly he needed the run. Everything else, the comments about going to France, booking Ryan Moore, all of it is just a smoke screen. Aus beat him on the day, but if they were to have a re-match over 1 mile (highly unlikely) how would you bet? Noone needs to be told about how important the breeding side of the operation is to Ballydoyle. They believed Aus could win the Guineas so trained him for it. They were not going to risk missing out on a Guineas/Derby winner by having their Dewhurst winner 100% fit. Same scenario with Rip Van Winkle & Mastercraftsman.
Re Toormore, I don't think he has trained on/progressed, which was stated on here after the Craven run. His main rival that day had a heart problem. Then throw in the fact the owners were desperate for him to end up top 2yo last season. Why? So they could sell him imo. |
|
By:
Fast ground at the Curragh and I'd fancy a big run from War Command, I'm sure he's capable of a 120 over a mile on fast ground but we shall see.
|
|
By:
Sint, in a rematch over 1 mile I'd have Australia odds on, as I suspect most books would. You may turn out to be right about War Command not being fit, but if you're saying Toormore hasn't trained on then it would be difficult to say WC definitely has, as up to now he's shown even less than Toormore.
|
|
By:
Even before the Greenham run Richard Hughes was talking about riding NOT in the Guineas ahead of Toormore. Writing was on the wall from then really. Had he not have been so comprehensively beaten by Kingman, Hughes would have rode NOT.
|
|
By:
Its an optical illusion that Lightning Thunder finished well and was making rapid progress on Miss France.
Good stuff geoff m. The parallax problem is always with us especially when the camera is at an angle and the horses are someway from a furlong marker or any other clear marker. The finish at Sandown always finds people out such is the angle of the finishing line. I would have been surprised if it was a technical issue given how sound the Turftrax technology appears from their description of the methodology. |
|
By:
Getting beaten 5 lengths in a Group 1 Classic when unfit is a great run. He'll turn the form around with Toormore by 2 lengths + at The Curragh and i'll bet accordingly.
 |
|
By:
I'm sure he's capable of a 120 over a mile on fast ground but we shall see.
No disagreement there, there never was. |
|
By:
Possibly geoff's explanation is correct, I am sometimes sceptical, however, given their past record of sometimes not even having a final time that matches the official one, and even manipulating the data after the event.
|
|
By:
toormore was over rated as a 2yo, more and more some of these trainers are being very astute in the placing of their best horses, theory is they are lightly racing a few of their better prospects, and the more forward better horses. are taking in the group 1 trial races
ect, are not always the best in the yard. |
|
By:
Roadrunner, I seem to remember similar being said after Sky Lantern's Nell Gwyn defeat last year, but before her Guineas win obviously
|
|
By:
more and more some of these trainers are being very astute in the placing of their best horses, theory is they are lightly racing a few of their better prospects, and the more forward better horses. are taking in the group 1 trial races
roadrunner, Hannon always run his Guineas horses in a trial, O'Brien does exactly the opposite. It depends on the trainer. Even Saeed Bin Suroor changed his policy this year by giving the likes of Be Ready a trial for the Guineas whereas normally he gives the Greenham / Craven meetings a miss |
|
By:
sintonian
i see your angle in regards war command as the stable has used the english guineas as a prep for ireland in the past is your angle purely how the stable have worked in the past or do you rate his 2 year old form?? i still have major reservations about him in regards his juvenile form, yes his coventry romp was a good performance but did he really progress on from this?...i don't think he did and need convincing about him this season before forming a solid judgement about his true ability and certainly in regards parting with cash... he will probably be an underlay with a lot seeing the o'brien not off angle in the irish guineas, so it will be interesting to see what they price him up at i am not with others that he could be a 120+ horse at this stage...i will be happy for him to show this on the track, as he certainly hasn't convinced me he is capable of that |