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All Derby bets on the Drrby are now in ashes - unless you have backed Australia.
To me eyes this was the most impressive performance by a 2yo this season. The penny has taken a little while to drop, but now he is staring to get to understand what is required he looks simply awesome.
In terms of the Derby its all over, but unless somethign decent emerges its quite possible he can take the 2000 Guineas en route. After this the 66/1 best odds I can find for the triple crown look almost sensible.
To me eyes this was the most impressive performance by a 2yo this season. The penny has taken a little while to drop, but now he is staring to get to understand what is required he looks simply awesome.
In terms of the Derby its all over, but unless somethign decent emerges its quite possible he can take the 2000 Guineas en route. After this the 66/1 best odds I can find for the triple crown look almost sensible.
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That's fighting talk. You're getting me excited too.
He's not even the best two year old in their yard as will become apparent before the year is over.
They`re taking a long time to get it ready if that`s the case.
I was impressed and I timed him running the last 3f 1.2s quicker than La Colline. He's definitely top of my derby short list at the moment.
I gave him a speed figure of 106 and a sectional of +13 so I have him on 119p.
had Free Eagle running around 20lbs slower than his debut win over CD. Can only assume Smullen knew something wrong with the horse and didn't ask him anything.
The winner is decent, but quotes of 6/1 for Guineas and Derby are complete overreaction to a race that fell apart. War Command would be a grade higher than Australia over the Guineas trip imo
The winner is decent, but quotes of 6/1 for Guineas and Derby are complete overreaction to a race that fell apart. War Command would be a grade higher than Australia over the Guineas trip imo
I'll be very surprised if he could win a Guineas, doesn't have the pace for that on what I've seen so far. He has to be on any Derby shortlist, however, and of the likely runners he'd probably be the one to beat in the RPT. Still a long way off to say a race like the Derby is his for the taking, it was a decent performance, just about up to the standard you'd look for in a potential Derby winner, but I've seen better over the years that never made the grade, yesterday's Coolmore runner in the Gp1 for instance.
Clerkmore 08 Sep 13 11:52 Joined: 27 Sep 01 | Topic/replies: 646 | Blogger: Clerkmore's blog
He's not even the best two year old in their yard as will become apparent before the year is over.
is this a horse that has run already or unraced?
He's not even the best two year old in their yard as will become apparent before the year is over.
is this a horse that has run already or unraced?
Another certain G1 winner in the making.Can't believe that Free Eagle was beaten so easily though but on my figs he ran as well as he did before but no better but had looked very good previously. Australia improved a ton and he is top of my short-list for the Derby.
I think he may be referring to Horseguardsparade. That opinion, however, may have to revised after yesterday. Bloodlines are another consideration. But lots to look forward to at Ballydoyle.
Geez another triple crown horse. So soon? Not convinced in the slightest Free Eagle ran to his best. 4/1 is truly disgusting ante-post odds.
AOB is saying this horse is the best he has ever had. So soon after Camelot & St Nick?
http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/aidan-obrien-australia-is-a-dream-horse-29564559.html
"Everyone probably knows we always thought he was the best horse we've ever had," O'Brien said.
"I don't want to be blowing up the horse but he was always doing things no two-year-old has ever done before."
Looks a steal at ante post prices if we can believe that, still think I'll hang fire, myself
"Everyone probably knows we always thought he was the best horse we've ever had," O'Brien said.
"I don't want to be blowing up the horse but he was always doing things no two-year-old has ever done before."
Looks a steal at ante post prices if we can believe that, still think I'll hang fire, myself
27th best he's ever had iyo? He's a joke!
Very rarely back single figure odds AP this far out, but had to take a bit of the Laddies 8/1 after the race.
Very rarely back single figure odds AP this far out, but had to take a bit of the Laddies 8/1 after the race.
For the Derby, that is. cryoftruth memtioned 66/1 for the Triple Crown. Cant find it anywhere but worth a few beans imo.
Are you going to be around for the Jumps, CCM? Where is that horse of yours starting out .. the one with Dermot Weld.
Yes cant wait for the jumps to get going Sint and will hopefully do the ten to follow this year.... seem to enjoy the flat less and less every year!
We've sent him to Dessie Hughes mate.... had a minor injury over the summer but seems to be back to 100% now and hoping to have him out early November. He will be chasing this season and looks built for the game! Been schooled a fair bit and absolutely jumps for fun, so our hopes are pretty high.
We've sent him to Dessie Hughes mate.... had a minor injury over the summer but seems to be back to 100% now and hoping to have him out early November. He will be chasing this season and looks built for the game! Been schooled a fair bit and absolutely jumps for fun, so our hopes are pretty high.
"Everyone probably knows we always thought he was the best horse we've ever had," O'Brien said
Is that he really said? Better than Galileo, High Chapparral, Hawk Wing, Rock of Gibraltar, Dylan Thomas, George Washington, Henrythenavigator, St Nicholas Abbey, Giant's Causeway..... etc ??
If everyone knew Australia was better than that lot, I'm a little confused as to how he went of 5/2 in a 4 horse race Group 3 contest last Sat.
Surely the Coolmore boys would have given up the foreign exchange activity on a Saturday evening, unloaded on this fellow and made him a 1/10 shot?
Think Aidan a great trainer and a nice guy, but really needs to give on the hyperbole, it's embarrassing especially after the Camelot fraud.
Is that he really said? Better than Galileo, High Chapparral, Hawk Wing, Rock of Gibraltar, Dylan Thomas, George Washington, Henrythenavigator, St Nicholas Abbey, Giant's Causeway..... etc ??
If everyone knew Australia was better than that lot, I'm a little confused as to how he went of 5/2 in a 4 horse race Group 3 contest last Sat.
Surely the Coolmore boys would have given up the foreign exchange activity on a Saturday evening, unloaded on this fellow and made him a 1/10 shot?
Think Aidan a great trainer and a nice guy, but really needs to give on the hyperbole, it's embarrassing especially after the Camelot fraud.
Good stuff mate. Always think Weld under races his horses a bit too much tbh, but what do I know. Look forward to seeing him out, looked really good last season despite the fact I can't remember the name!
He's called Some Tikket. I dont believe Chasers are his forte tbh, hence the decision. Heard he might be packing the National Hunt game in soon anyway.
Only problem with the horse is that he appears completely unable to go right handed. I always thought this was over stated with some horses, until we got this fella. But he literally wont do it at all. Ran out first time, and then was more or less pulled up on his last start and Barry said he hated every second of it and pulled the whole way. He was impressed he even completed! At least its not the other way round, as most of the top tracks for him are at least left handed!!
Only problem with the horse is that he appears completely unable to go right handed. I always thought this was over stated with some horses, until we got this fella. But he literally wont do it at all. Ran out first time, and then was more or less pulled up on his last start and Barry said he hated every second of it and pulled the whole way. He was impressed he even completed! At least its not the other way round, as most of the top tracks for him are at least left handed!!
Mind you, Im being hopeful there thinking only of Chelts!!! Punchestown and Fairyhouse wont be any good for him 
Agree with you figgis. I cannot remember any horse bred for 12 furlongs on both immediate sides of the pedigree winning a Guineas - ever. Nijinsky might have been.
I got no odds on my round of phone calls from Hillz, and Paddy wanted to swap e-mails before they would offer. I am banned from Boylz and OkKorale so ended up with reliable B365 for 66's and had a tenner because its all I could get. It's not value though but something to have a giggle about.
I thought Oz was going okay and quickened to dispute the lead with Free Eagle and then suddenly he seemed to get the hang of what Jo wanted and he definitely really quickened very well. A turn of foot like that and a horse that settles so well is a perfect Derby horse. It's not hard to rate him 120 with the time form big P already and he's a certainty to improve. If ladies are still 8/1 its pretty decent value. I reckon 6/1 is about right.
I know it's hype to some extent, but the breeding is sumptuous. Galileo is about the most successful sire ever and Ouija Board was a triple breeders cup winning Oaks filly with tons of class and a good turn of foot. Now he has demonstrated he has inherited some of the class at the very least, the sky is the limit. He could (emphasise COULD) be one of the greats.
I got no odds on my round of phone calls from Hillz, and Paddy wanted to swap e-mails before they would offer. I am banned from Boylz and OkKorale so ended up with reliable B365 for 66's and had a tenner because its all I could get. It's not value though but something to have a giggle about.
I thought Oz was going okay and quickened to dispute the lead with Free Eagle and then suddenly he seemed to get the hang of what Jo wanted and he definitely really quickened very well. A turn of foot like that and a horse that settles so well is a perfect Derby horse. It's not hard to rate him 120 with the time form big P already and he's a certainty to improve. If ladies are still 8/1 its pretty decent value. I reckon 6/1 is about right.
I know it's hype to some extent, but the breeding is sumptuous. Galileo is about the most successful sire ever and Ouija Board was a triple breeders cup winning Oaks filly with tons of class and a good turn of foot. Now he has demonstrated he has inherited some of the class at the very least, the sky is the limit. He could (emphasise COULD) be one of the greats.
Coolmore go for some strange names. How about bull5h1t?
If Australia is their greatest ever horse then the United States must be an absolute beast.....
No doubting that Australia has everything needed to win the Derby and if the race were next month I wouldn't hesitate to back it. But, 6/1 for a race 9 months away? Might have considered it even at that price in the days when credit betting was possible but how the hell is it sensible to tie up a chunk of money other than with the intention of laying it after its next race, assuming it has one this year - and it wins of course. Which it should .
Sandown
Agree about the price, utterly ridiculous, as are O'Brien's statements about the horse, imo. It's not like we haven't heard this kind of stuff before on a regular basis is it? I think both SNA and Kingsbarns had better Derby credentials as 2yos but neither even made the gig.
Agree about the price, utterly ridiculous, as are O'Brien's statements about the horse, imo. It's not like we haven't heard this kind of stuff before on a regular basis is it? I think both SNA and Kingsbarns had better Derby credentials as 2yos but neither even made the gig.
Figgis
My biggest gripe in racing is the demise of credit betting and along with it the A/P market. It used to provide a huge source of entertainment and even if the race was months away it didn't matter as you had chances to take more than one position in a race which would compensate for any non-runners. I would say that it accounted for 90% of my winnings over a longish period but now - well as no bookmaker will take my bets I'm stuck with this site, which is useless or I use contacts to go through the odd one or two bookmakers where credit is still available, if you put enough turnover through them. If there is one way that Betfair could improve this site it would be to use their Sportsbook to take credit bets and then they could hedge on the exchange which would improve liquidity no-end. But, of course, that would mean taking a risk, something the current management seems loathe to do.
My biggest gripe in racing is the demise of credit betting and along with it the A/P market. It used to provide a huge source of entertainment and even if the race was months away it didn't matter as you had chances to take more than one position in a race which would compensate for any non-runners. I would say that it accounted for 90% of my winnings over a longish period but now - well as no bookmaker will take my bets I'm stuck with this site, which is useless or I use contacts to go through the odd one or two bookmakers where credit is still available, if you put enough turnover through them. If there is one way that Betfair could improve this site it would be to use their Sportsbook to take credit bets and then they could hedge on the exchange which would improve liquidity no-end. But, of course, that would mean taking a risk, something the current management seems loathe to do.
As for AOB's comments, well we all take them with a pinch of salt, don't we? The fact is, though, that they invariably have the cream of the horses, he is a trainer who has a clear MO, and for me I am well up backing Coolmore horses so I have no complaints. They run a business, are extremely successful at it, and it's the way it is. We just have to live with it.
I'd harbour a guess and say that the 'greatest horse we've ever trained' tag is trundled out every season in the hope they have a good horse who meets a poor batch of 3y/o.
Sandown
Ante post betting pre-season is something of a rarity for me these days, as there is very little value offered by the bookmakers compared to years gone by. Sky Lantern was unusually good value last year, I won't be having an ante post 1000 bet this year the way things are looking at the moment. Frankel was available around 20/1 for the Derby after his impressive Doncaster win, ok he didn't end up getting aimed at the race, but Australia's price is ludicrous in comparison. Years ago Reference Point was the same price as Australia after demolishing the RPT (then the Futurity) field, I'd say his Derby chances were more apparent than O'Brien's candidate. As to Betfair, they could offer lower commission rates for ante post bets, it might not make a huge difference but it'd be something. I think the real problem here is that average punters, or even pros, just have no interest in laying a horse at generous odds such a long way away from a race, I know I don't.
Ante post betting pre-season is something of a rarity for me these days, as there is very little value offered by the bookmakers compared to years gone by. Sky Lantern was unusually good value last year, I won't be having an ante post 1000 bet this year the way things are looking at the moment. Frankel was available around 20/1 for the Derby after his impressive Doncaster win, ok he didn't end up getting aimed at the race, but Australia's price is ludicrous in comparison. Years ago Reference Point was the same price as Australia after demolishing the RPT (then the Futurity) field, I'd say his Derby chances were more apparent than O'Brien's candidate. As to Betfair, they could offer lower commission rates for ante post bets, it might not make a huge difference but it'd be something. I think the real problem here is that average punters, or even pros, just have no interest in laying a horse at generous odds such a long way away from a race, I know I don't.
cheers CCM. Interesting point re course direction but at least there are loads of top tracks going left-handed, Leopardstown, Aintree, Newbury etc. Arvika Legioniere was deplorable left-handed last season but mopped up every time he went right-handed.
well as no bookmaker will take my bets I'm stuck with this site
Surely there are ways around this, particularly for ante post bets.
Surely there are ways around this, particularly for ante post bets.
"this horse has done things no other 2yo has done here before......"
apparently Australia gets up in the morning and makes Aidan bacon and eggs whilst bringing him a copy of The Irish Field tucked under his near fore...
apparently Australia gets up in the morning and makes Aidan bacon and eggs whilst bringing him a copy of The Irish Field tucked under his near fore...
Surely there are ways around this, particularly for ante post bets.
Even commission agents want money upfront unless they have BM's who offer credit & for that you need t/o.
Even commission agents want money upfront unless they have BM's who offer credit & for that you need t/o.
Sure, I can get on in shops away from where I live - or used to live - but as I say having money tied up for months reduces liquidity unless its for small amounts, and for small amounts I can't be bothered.
Ladcrooks are amongst the worse bookies at the moment. You cannot phone then any more as they have scrapped their phone betting.
I took their stand out 8/1 about Oz, but having stood out they then decide to go an unnecessary4/1 against the top priced 6/1 today. What was wrong with 5/1 or even 9/2?
I am certain that 66/1 was a bet for a laugh and no value at all. Oz is about 12/1 to get to the 2000 Guineas and if he ran no shorter than 3/1 to win it. Then there is the getting to Epsom and winning, and after Camelot maybe Coolmore will be a bit more hesitant about another crack at the triple Crown. Realistically Oz is about 200/1 minimum to actually win the triple crown. B365 were sporting in their 66/1. Ladbrokes got publicity in today's post by quoting a laughable 25/1 - that greedy and totally p1ss taking price says everything you need to know about that firm.
I took their stand out 8/1 about Oz, but having stood out they then decide to go an unnecessary4/1 against the top priced 6/1 today. What was wrong with 5/1 or even 9/2?
I am certain that 66/1 was a bet for a laugh and no value at all. Oz is about 12/1 to get to the 2000 Guineas and if he ran no shorter than 3/1 to win it. Then there is the getting to Epsom and winning, and after Camelot maybe Coolmore will be a bit more hesitant about another crack at the triple Crown. Realistically Oz is about 200/1 minimum to actually win the triple crown. B365 were sporting in their 66/1. Ladbrokes got publicity in today's post by quoting a laughable 25/1 - that greedy and totally p1ss taking price says everything you need to know about that firm.
What I can't understand, is why you AP bettors don't stick up a grand at the price you want to punt at
on here and see if it gets taken. I know it's not credit betting, but I wouldn't be surprised if you got
a lot of your bets laid. For layers like me (and I can't name the others that I know) the only way we can
take a decent bet is if we've laid some decent bets. I'm always seeing people whinge about "the two quid
merchants" but they forget that £2 at 200.0 is a £400 bet for me. I can't start taking bets to win a grand
until I've fielded some money. It's logical.
on here and see if it gets taken. I know it's not credit betting, but I wouldn't be surprised if you got
a lot of your bets laid. For layers like me (and I can't name the others that I know) the only way we can
take a decent bet is if we've laid some decent bets. I'm always seeing people whinge about "the two quid
merchants" but they forget that £2 at 200.0 is a £400 bet for me. I can't start taking bets to win a grand
until I've fielded some money. It's logical.
Pete, there are just too many morons around. Using Australia as an example, people are trying to get small sums matched on here for 11/2, when 6/1 is still available with the books. If a grand was stuck up there would just be the usual queue jumpers for smaller stakes.
Well, I take the point Figg, but while you're being cagey with your grand, I'm going to be cagey with
mine. It's not very funny having to pay 20% to BF either, and the bigger layers are coughing up a good
bit more than 20%.
Meanwhile the bookies would rather milk the mugs for a guaranteed percentage than take on the punters
for a chance of a pay day. The W1lliam Hi1ls and Vic Ch@ndlers of old wouldn't even recognise bookmaking
today.
mine. It's not very funny having to pay 20% to BF either, and the bigger layers are coughing up a good
bit more than 20%.
Meanwhile the bookies would rather milk the mugs for a guaranteed percentage than take on the punters
for a chance of a pay day. The W1lliam Hi1ls and Vic Ch@ndlers of old wouldn't even recognise bookmaking
today.
Pete, I've already said I wouldn't want to lay races ante post myself, so I'm not having a go at those who do on here, but the fact remains there's little value in it on here for the backer, often less than with the books.
Probably true, Figg. In the week or two before the race - in the strong markets - you can get a decent
bet here and normally beat the books. Apart from that, you're right. Mind you, I've taken a couple of beatings
myself when I've banked on decent liquidity and haven't got it.
bet here and normally beat the books. Apart from that, you're right. Mind you, I've taken a couple of beatings
myself when I've banked on decent liquidity and haven't got it.
PS Just compared the Derby to Oddschecker and you're right about the morons 
Pete, when you lay so far in advance how do you manage to balance your book, with little liquidity and only a few horses wanted to be backed seriously?
Just patience.
That's why it has to be done little by little. I haven't got the funds to stick up bets that take out a grand
when there are still 6 or 8 months till the race. You learn all the time, as well - some races aren't ever going
to give you the value but you don't find that out till you've tried. For example, Chelts this year was terrible
value on most races - the RSA was up for about 10 months and yet I simply could not get the book balanced. The
Gold Cup was betting over-broke for weeks at a time all the way from Christmas (it showed as approx 105% but that
was with 10% provided by horses at 300+). The Triumph was a good race last year, but poor this year - liquidity
for the punter was well down.
The handicaps are exclusively for the deep of pocket because BF don't allow the layer to offset liabilities any longer.
They changed the rules about 2 years back, which is why the Grand National market is a shadow of its former self.
I wish I had a magic wand and I'd make a new exchange which would be like a cross between BF now and BF 10 years ago.
That's why it has to be done little by little. I haven't got the funds to stick up bets that take out a grand
when there are still 6 or 8 months till the race. You learn all the time, as well - some races aren't ever going
to give you the value but you don't find that out till you've tried. For example, Chelts this year was terrible
value on most races - the RSA was up for about 10 months and yet I simply could not get the book balanced. The
Gold Cup was betting over-broke for weeks at a time all the way from Christmas (it showed as approx 105% but that
was with 10% provided by horses at 300+). The Triumph was a good race last year, but poor this year - liquidity
for the punter was well down.
The handicaps are exclusively for the deep of pocket because BF don't allow the layer to offset liabilities any longer.
They changed the rules about 2 years back, which is why the Grand National market is a shadow of its former self.
I wish I had a magic wand and I'd make a new exchange which would be like a cross between BF now and BF 10 years ago.
I'm puzzling over this now, Figg. Why is there a £50 bet up to lay at 6.2? Logic all says it should be
snapped up by someone who bets it at 7.0 with the books. Even if you don't fancy a long-term arb with
a very fine margin, it must be a good lay for the field layers. It doesn't say a lot for BF's liquidity,
does it?
snapped up by someone who bets it at 7.0 with the books. Even if you don't fancy a long-term arb with
a very fine margin, it must be a good lay for the field layers. It doesn't say a lot for BF's liquidity,
does it?
Pete, no it doesn't, not as far as ante post goes anyway.
Well I am happy enough with the 8/1 Ladbrokes gave me last year about Oz as he obviously ran a storming trial in the 2000 Guineas.
However I must say I was extremely impressed with the run of True Story at the Craven meeting.
This was really quite remarkable and unless simply everything else in the race was miles below form he must have already run a rating of - well who knows what to be honest.
He had back in second the horse Ger Lyons thought was a Derby candidate - Obliterator. Third and 4th were listed ot group 3 class colts of Hannon. Obliterator had won a really decent maiden last year very easily. Ger Lyons did not send him over for the good of his health. He was well backed and is highly regarded. He appeared totally outclassed yet without True Story in the field he would have himeslef thrashed a decent field and been a lot shorter for the Derby and rightly so too.
These horses were all 95-105 rated beasts. Barley Mow just won a listed race at HQ's Guineas meeting very well and he waa 4th. True Story did not just win, he missed the break and raced keenly. Then he ended up going alongside the second without being asked and when ridden took a little while to get going before slaughtering Obliterator by 7 lengths, pulling right away at the end and staying on very strongly. Oblierator thrashed the others with the very worthy Barley Mow over 6 lenghts back in 4th.
Its actually impossible to rate the performance but it could be as high as 126.
What True Story did in the Fielden Stakes looks quite astonishing even now watching it again but its even more amazing when you look at his pedigree as he clearly has tons of stamina with the dam's side chock a block with staying blood (and class) with the grand dam no other than triple crown winning Oh So Sharp.
True Story looks sure to stay 12 furlongs for sure and he looks a really superb prospect. The only down side to True Story could be his temperament as he was hard to get into the stalls and its possible that the jamboree that is the Derby, with all the noise etc may cause him to boil over. That aside though he already looks a 130+ horse and at current odds its hard to see how he is not a major factor this year. The Dante may be his final pre Epsom run and I would imagine he would splatter the oppostion there before going qite short for Epsom in the betting.
So there you are, the mighty Oz with his flash breeeding and top class form, sure to improve for a trip (on breeding) but blessed with speed to burn against True Story with his flash breeeding and top class form; a real immovable object v the irresistable force job.
I personally doubt anything much will trouble this pair and it looks a really cracking year for 3yo's already with the first 7 or 8 in the Guineas looking quite useful and True Story's Fielden Stakes run looking just amazing.
However I must say I was extremely impressed with the run of True Story at the Craven meeting.
This was really quite remarkable and unless simply everything else in the race was miles below form he must have already run a rating of - well who knows what to be honest.
He had back in second the horse Ger Lyons thought was a Derby candidate - Obliterator. Third and 4th were listed ot group 3 class colts of Hannon. Obliterator had won a really decent maiden last year very easily. Ger Lyons did not send him over for the good of his health. He was well backed and is highly regarded. He appeared totally outclassed yet without True Story in the field he would have himeslef thrashed a decent field and been a lot shorter for the Derby and rightly so too.
These horses were all 95-105 rated beasts. Barley Mow just won a listed race at HQ's Guineas meeting very well and he waa 4th. True Story did not just win, he missed the break and raced keenly. Then he ended up going alongside the second without being asked and when ridden took a little while to get going before slaughtering Obliterator by 7 lengths, pulling right away at the end and staying on very strongly. Oblierator thrashed the others with the very worthy Barley Mow over 6 lenghts back in 4th.
Its actually impossible to rate the performance but it could be as high as 126.
What True Story did in the Fielden Stakes looks quite astonishing even now watching it again but its even more amazing when you look at his pedigree as he clearly has tons of stamina with the dam's side chock a block with staying blood (and class) with the grand dam no other than triple crown winning Oh So Sharp.
True Story looks sure to stay 12 furlongs for sure and he looks a really superb prospect. The only down side to True Story could be his temperament as he was hard to get into the stalls and its possible that the jamboree that is the Derby, with all the noise etc may cause him to boil over. That aside though he already looks a 130+ horse and at current odds its hard to see how he is not a major factor this year. The Dante may be his final pre Epsom run and I would imagine he would splatter the oppostion there before going qite short for Epsom in the betting.
So there you are, the mighty Oz with his flash breeeding and top class form, sure to improve for a trip (on breeding) but blessed with speed to burn against True Story with his flash breeeding and top class form; a real immovable object v the irresistable force job.
I personally doubt anything much will trouble this pair and it looks a really cracking year for 3yo's already with the first 7 or 8 in the Guineas looking quite useful and True Story's Fielden Stakes run looking just amazing.
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