G1 Ire Champ Stks (this Sat on ATR 6.50)

Not sure if the ground thing is being overplayed with AK tbh. The going at Ascot and Sandown was as quick as you can get, almost. DOW has won twice on Soft albeit at a lower level. Probably best to wait until tomorrow so we know the going for sure.

If the going does turn up on the softer side of good, Kingsbarns would be an very interesting runner.

Did plenty on him AP for some big races this year, and I for one will be keeping a close eye on this beast.

Has the rain arrived at Leopardstown yet?

They had only 4mm over night (last night) Weather forecast is for 10/20mm over night into Sat morn. Fingers X for a gd bit of the wet stuff for me (gd at least) For Al Kaz to line-up 2moro. I think he could be a few pounds better horse on easier ground.

my mate is there tonite ,got the text at 8.46 raining in leop .am going tomorrow and its not often i say this ,but i hope its pouring down til about 3 o clock then blind n sun from then on ,good luck lads how ever you play am in the caponata and al kaz camp and am struggle n to find a better odds against shot than montiridge ,i kept think tawhid is a great price and this soft ground at haydock and is a safe bet as will probable be in the first three , but monty looks a beast and is only starting to fill his frame too i cant abandon him

Ratings wise, I have Al Kazeem top, The Fugue 2lbs behind, DOW 1lb behind her. I've always thought the ground factor has been overstated with Al Kazeem, I believe he was below par last time because of his earlier exertions, not because of the ground. He could return to his best today but he's not for me at the price. The Fugue's latest win was a career best and the first time I've thought she's capable of competing with the males. A 1lb advantage isn't really something to get stuck into but she comes here relatively fresh on the back of an improved run, whereas DOW has been on the go all year, he too put up a marginal career best last time but it was hard fought and I wouldn't be confident he can remain in that form again. Again I think ground requirements have been overstated for The Fugue, it was very soft in her Guineas and the Ribblesdale. I'll be keeping an eye on the weather but if the ground is good or slightly softer I can't see it being any problem for her and she'll be a bet.

Would have been very keen on the chances of The Fugue on fast ground figgis, she is at the very top of her game in such conditions imo. Had a small saver on her last night on hear at 6.4 if the forecast rain did not amount to much. Will wait till racetime now before taking anymore £££ interest in the race, by then we shall have the full state of the going with more showers still forecast.

DOW out due to ground

But which sort of ground has D.O.W. dodged.

My 2 bobs worth is on Kingsbarns at 9/2.

Looks like near gd ground. Bit of a surprise he is out because of the ground???
Takes a gd bit of spice out of the race

^^^ all part of the plan

What plan is that??

To let rival trainers think all the form was all tied in, then along comes their best 3 y/o making his seasonal debut in the Irish Champion. I point the finger and make these kind of comments, but i also backed the horse, so i at least believe what i say. They probably run Mars(ran against Kazeem at Sandown) against Kingsbarns at home, and i beat you the distance between Mars and Kingsbarns is the same distance betwee earth and Mars. 9/2 is win only thievery, with only the Fugue to beat.(if she runs)

Infact forget Mars, he's probably beating DOW at home.

Mars was sold a month ago iirc.

On appearances the ground doesn't look slow, the times also indicate the fast side of good ground, so the excuse does have the distinct whiff of bullsh1t.

Raining again but Al Kaz is no 5/4 chance even without DOW. Time to lay off that 7/2 bet?

Times still very much indicating fast side of good, even allowing for any possible wind assistance it couldn't be any worse than good.

Instead of realising AK has been over rated they will now claim The Fugue is a great racehorse.

I put myself off backing the Fugue because DOW was taken out. Something is amiss there. The ground didn't look that bad. Back to the drawing board. WD winners.

superb write up for the fugue, succinct and most importantly right, well done figgis

Thanks, roadrunner. I expected her price to shorten considerably after the withdrawal of DOW but it held up remarkably well.

Yes, well said Figgis, you've made me think a bit more about horses' form cycles this year, and the value in anticipating post-peak performance.

wd Figgis,
Brigust, I think the handicapper will probably say their 120 was correct for Trading Leather and therefore AL Kazeem has returned to his best of 124 and The Fugue will be up to 123. For me I think all 3 should be around 4lb lower.

I think I can agree with that Stevie though I never work to pounds or ratings myself I just use my intuition, for what it's worth. I have always thought AK was being rated too highly by beating opposition weak for a Group 1. Camelot gave it some sort of credibility but he and Main Sequence have confirmed all our fears about last years 3 year olds. With Ballydoyle housing this years top 3 year olds as well the waters may become even murkier.

I cannot under AOB's thinking or what on earth is going on in his stable and I suggest he doesn't know either. Clive Cox has 2 top class sprinters in his yard and has trouble placing them so goodness knows how AOB copes with placing the battalions he has. I suppose the short answer is 'badly'.

Excellent performance from The Fugue in yest big G1 in Ire.
Her turn of foot set her apart from the rest in a cracking race.
Ground looked no slower than on the gd (ish) side & the winning times on the card were not too much below standard. Classy performance.

I now think those sneaky bastards were keeping DOW in there to try and scare off the Fugue in the hope more rain turned up. They kept him right in there until it was obviously she wasn't going anywhere. I'm glad she won.

Trying to second guess the AOB team is never easy (if not bloody impossible)
Not sure about your thinking on the race full stop G83 (pre or post).
Just think they made a couple of poor judgement calls on the race yest (imo)

Every opinion Graeme has is underpinned by cynicism. No idea why. Just stick to the evidence.

At least my opinions are my own, Sint. You're one of these groupies who form online mates and ask their opinion on everything. Your 'what do we think of this race lads' approach is very telling. Miller, i don't think it was bad judgement at all. How do you mis-judge the going description when you're standing on the ground ?

what a shambles coolmore have made of group1s , with tactics like graeame quoted, and the other big powerhouse cheating by dominating maidens and hcaps . no wonder we all look to the 70s/80s as the great era .

Truth is that Coolmore don't have anything outstanding - DoW is their best horse.  Be interesting to see what they run in the Arc trials maybe nothing.

The truth is AT Coolmore is screwing up too often to be good for racing. This has been going on for far too long. AOB and his son are presiding over a stable full of potential champions while top class trainers get by with the occasional one. In the Irish Champion Stakes AOB had 12 entries. Where almost every other trainer had one. Racing is suffering badly while a group of old rich men play games working around a financial model. It stinks.

Trading Leather and Al Kazeem had hard seasons, The Fugue only had to run to 92 to score yesterday.

Agree with Brigust though, Al Kazeem been well overrated and nowhere near genuine Group 1 class. Keep asking the same question, what has he beaten?

92?

The preceding Group 3 a shocking affair, only 5 places from 19 attempts in listed / Group company between them and no wins.

The United States made all at just an ok gallop, scrambled home from nothing more than a high class handicapper in Elleval, with another smart handicapper in Belle De Crecy in 4th.

The Fugue won in only 0.37 secs quicker time. Both races run a similar 2-3 horse widths off the rail.

Difficult to see how can The Fugue highly on timefigures unless think ground deteriorated from the preceding contest.

the Group 3 field also carried 3lbs more than the Grp 1 for some reason

I'm sure the ground deteriorated, as it also did after the first race, it can only be an opinion but it's one I'd back. Think you also seem to be using quite low pounds per sec scales. Don't think I've ever seen an all age Gp1 won with a rating as low as 92 in a truly run race, which this race was. My figures would translate to 123 for The Fugue (Timeform type scale), minus her 3lb allowance, I had her 124 at York.

The United States carried 1lb less than The Fugue.

he's only a 3yo who should be getting 7lbs WFA from The Fugue less the 3lbs sex allowance in Ireland (compared to 5 in UK)

So what have you given The United States and Elleval?

TUS would translate to about 108. As I've said before, there is no need for wfa to be included in private speed ratings, and speed ratings scales should be more compressed than the official one.

so Elleval would be no worse than 107?
And presumably you have somewhere between 11-12lbs ground deterioration if The Fugue on 123?

Figgis when assessing a race do you look only at the bare bones or do you take other things into consideration? In the Irish Champion Stakes how many horses do you think were trained for that race? I suggest only The Fugue. Kingsbarns was having a first run of the season while Al Kazeem and Trading Leather were both on retrieval missions having had hard races only two and a half weeks ago. The Fugue on the other hand had had an easy prep race in the Yorkshire Oaks and was both on the top of her game and on good terms with herself mentally.
In the Marios only Moonlight Cloud could be considered 'targeting' the race and on top of her game as she was in the Gueest a week earlier. Like The Fugue she was on top of her game both mentally and physically. Add to that there are now loads of Group 1 races where only one or two horses are Group 1 horses. The Haydock Sprint, Yorkshire Oaks, Prix Rothschild are all recent Group 1's like that and the Matron Stakes wasn't even a Group 1 race at all, only in name.

Lost count of the amount of times you have made something up on a whim Graeme. Have you any evidence for that? I suggest you get yourself a girlfriend or some happy pills because you are one miserable sweaty, always type weird non-sensical crap on here of which their is loads of evidence. Clearly Milleracing has noticed it too, hence his comment.

Every bet you place has some weird cycnical angle behind ,and, in which case your are destined to lose. It's 2013 not 1980. Do analysis properly instead of sucking up the negativity. I know it's hard, but it's better than guessing.

Oh Sint, you got me. Rarely an argument goes by without you trying to favourably drop other peoples names, to try and get yourself some assistance. You are the overlord of di*k riding. Talking of d*cks, you absolutely suck at putting up your own opinions, and it has become evident that you rely on everyone else to do all the engine work. Here is my Sint impression * coughs to clear throat and attain that high pitched voice * hey boys, what are we doing today boys ? hey boys, i was thinking of backing this horse, what do we all think about that ? ...in short, man up bitch boy. MillerRacing backed the front 3 in the market, so i couldn't give a **** less what he thinks. If there was a walkover, he would back the same horse twice. I'm just warming up for the jumps. Let the barrel spin.

btw, anyone who thinks that all was above board with DOW is a gullible schmuck.

Man you're weird Graeme.

In fairness, Milleracing made his observation with no assistance from me. Go back and read it.

We look forward to you doing your brains yet again over the jumps this season.

"We look forward to you doing your brains yet again over the jumps this season."




Goodness me, he's almost addicted to getting assistance from others. I bet you the fat guy next door helps you finish your dinner, and other big man of a different variety helps you serenade the misses. I'm going to start calling you 'We Man' from now on.

Never bet on the fat guy, Graeme. That would be another one you lose.

And when I say WE, you did provide some entertainment last season, i'll give you that.

brigust1     
Figgis when assessing a race do you look only at the bare bones or do you take other things into consideration? In the Irish Champion Stakes how many horses do you think were trained for that race?

Brig, I think that was already accounted for in my analysis before the race.

pedrobob   
so Elleval would be no worse than 107?
And presumably you have somewhere between 11-12lbs ground deterioration if The Fugue on 123?

That's roughly about right. As I've said, though, putting speed figures into the official scale is putting a round peg into a square hole. The official scale was pretty much ripped off the Timeform idea. When Timeform came up with the scale they were using different pounds per lengths for times and form, which is pretty absurd, but probably stems from Whitford and Bull looking at form from different angles. This got rectified at some point in the seventies when Whitley was on board. Recently Timeform changed their pounds per second scale. The official pounds per length scale has also changed from the one they used earlier. If times had been used properly earlier then I don't believe the scale would be as it is now. I'm not knocking them, it's not easy coming up with a scale from scratch and it's only through years of experience that you notice the flaws. As they're public they don't have the advantage of being able to tinker with a scale like an individual can. On the whole it works, but I don't think you're going to get accurate speed figures by trying to fit them into that scale.

Figgis, agree with you about the difficulty of coming up with own or even relying on official scales for lbs per length, WFA etc.

Slightly disagree with your comment earlier that no need for WFA to be included in speed ratings. Otherwise, how do we come up with relative assessments for 2yos who are clearly at a physical maturity disadvantage with their elders, let alone 3yos with 4yos (though accept that 4yos+ etc do not neccessarily carry on improving their raw speed figures)

Trying to factor in WFA I think helps with interpreting the conundrum that Saturday provided ie one of the worst Group 3's (headed by a couple of moderate 3yos for the class) I've ever seen and run over the same CD as the Group 1.

We can obviously debate all day on the merit of Al Kazeem, but both you and Brigust seem to accept that Al Kazeem and Trading Leather have been asked too many questions this season and presumably well below their best on Saturday? That seems very simply the case to me, supported by a weak speed figure for a Group 1.

If you are saying the ground deteriorated badly in half an hour and The Fugue produced a lifetime or near lifetime best speed figure, are you suggesting that the filly can produce her best on soft(?) ground, something which appeared impossible according to trainer, jockey and owner beforehand?

Ped, even with my slower allowance for the last 2 races the ground still only reads good, and not even on the slow side of it.

Slightly disagree with your comment earlier that no need for WFA to be included in speed ratings. Otherwise, how do we come up with relative assessments for 2yos who are clearly at a physical maturity disadvantage with their elders, let alone 3yos with 4yos (though accept that 4yos+ etc do not neccessarily carry on improving their raw speed figures)

But why do you need a wfa scale to tell you that? If you rate the races and performances exactly as they are then you'll know precisely just how far the younger horses are behind their elders.

why do you need a wfa scale to tell you that?

If we judged all horses simply on their best pure speed figures, I think we would fail to recognise the ability of some champion 2yos, who for whatever reason failed to train on or were injured before they could mature as a 3 or 4yo and retired, never ran again.

Guess you would put the likes of Arazi and Three Valleys in this category as well as plenty of others (thinking back, maybe Try My Best or Tromos?)

By not awarding these horses an equivalent "WFA" timefigure, we would never identify these horses as some of the "fastest" horses to have run on the turf.

What if Frankel had got injured or died over the winter before he turned 3? Would pure speed figures for him as a 2yo have rated him probably the best there has been (in the last 30 years at least)? As good as they were, I suggest he would have rated way down the scale if that's all we had to rely on.

Fwiw, I don't think the ground slowed between the 2 races but in the Irish champion they went quite slow in the first 3f to the path before Manning stepped it up and it was that slow early part that caused the slowish time.

Figgis I mean after the race. You know now the particulars of the race do you take that into consideration when reaching a figure after the race.

If we judged all horses simply on their best pure speed figures, I think we would fail to recognise the ability of some champion 2yos,

Why would we? We know what an average 2yo performance is, we know what an above average 2yo performance. I didn't need any wfa to scale to tell me Frankel was a high class 2yo.

Stevie Gerrard 
Fwiw, I don't think the ground slowed between the 2 races but in the Irish champion they went quite slow in the first 3f to the path before Manning stepped it up and it was that slow early part that caused the slowish time. 

Stevie, a slowish first 3f is nothing unusual in a 10f race, as long as they didn't go chasing pace then the time deficit can easily be made up if they quicken up early enough, which they did. I've read stuff elsewhere that implies a race can only produce a good speed figure if a race is very evenly run, furlong for furlong, I strongly disagree. It's possible that it was slowly run, if I believed that I'd want to be with The Fugue next time, as it would mean she didn't have too hard a race. At this moment I don't believe that and I'd be against her next time.

Some people really do need to learn how to what is being said (G83) What 3 horses did I bet in the race?? I think if you clear that strange little head of yours & read the (pre) race views of mine, you will find that I had 2 bets (1 ante-p) & 1 lay in the race.
As for the way the race was run, it would not have mattered imo, the best horse (a filly) won the race.

You say you backed one, i said three, but the answer is two. You did have three separate bets though. However, don't become my victim for the jumps season with your constant little digs. I'm a beer drinker, so i know that Miller-light. You backed Al Kazeem, and layed him(2 bets). You also backed the Fugue.(third bet)

As regards times and early pace is thrown on it's head if FRENCH racing is studied,
they REGULARLY dawdle in the early stages, but sprint for home for about 2 1/2 furlongs, yet
overall times are excellent, this is an anomaly that I have noticed down the years, funnily
it transfers very well around the Globe!!!!!!!!!

bazzar, are you saying that French races with a sprint finish produce faster times than races where they go an even gallop all the way?

It is not unknown for very fast times where horses finish fast at the end of the race instead of going fast early on then slowing down.

The fastest time that a horse/athlete can run is when they achieve a even pace throughout.Don't take my word fo it.  A moments Google search got me this quote

If Pete Pfitzinger and Scott Douglas’ argument, in Road Racing for Serious Runners: Multispeed Training: 5K to Marathon (Human Kinetics, 1999), that "running an even pace is the most effective way to run the fastest time because it uses oxygen most economically and keeps lactate accumulation to a minimum", then a runner's race tactics should judge the threats to running an even pace on race day.

Fwiw I've discovered that for every 2 seconds slow in the first half of a race, a horse can only make up 1 second in the second half.Eg if a horses best time is say 96 secs over a mile then if he takes 52 secs for the first 4f then he most likely will not be able to go any faster than 46 secs in the second half making the overall time 98 secs.

Every athletics world record broken for decades has been run at even splits.
I find it difficult to believe that physiological rules would be different for horses

Back to wfa, I fully accept that officially that's the way it has to be done, averages and generalisations of improvement have to be used. If you use wfa in private speed ratings, though, you're limiting the accuracy of them. An example would be a 3yo like Toronado in the Sussex Stakes, he would be entitled to receive more pounds at that stage of the season than he would for the QE2, therefore incorporating wfa he would be given credit for running faster than he ever had in reality. Just to run to the same wfa figure in the QE2 he would need to improve 5lbs in real terms. If he ran exactly as fast in both races he would be rated as running 5lbs slower in the QE2, I can't see how this is a good way of rating times. We all know that on average 3yos do improve as the season progresses, but that is taking into account horses at the middle and lower ends of the scale. Does an average 3yo Sussex Stakes winner improve by 5lbs between then and the QE2? I'd say categorically no.

Sandown, yes that looks fair enough, I think most would agree that there's a certain point where the deficit cannot be got back, a horse obviously has speed limits. My argument is that a slightly slower opening 3f out of a 10f race isn't too much to be regained by the finish. The idea that the best figures are achieved only when there are very even splits might be good in theory, but doesn't stand up to the reality.

very even splits might be good in theory, but doesn't stand up to the reality.


Tell that to Mark Johnston

Sandown

I'm not a fan of the trainer, equally he doesn't seem to have a high opinion of punters. However, if you're talking about his instructions to jockeys to go at an even pace for the horse and pretty much ignore what everybody else is doing, then I think it's sound advice. Doesn't seem to stop some of his in form favourites getting stuffed 10 lengths plus though

Pedro, why not peruse some past big races and find out for yourself.

What about Kingsbarns? Is it kosher to send out a horse that the trainer must have known was a complete
no-hoper? It wasn't unfancied either, being the same SP as the winner. I'd feel pretty cheesed if I'd
backed it (and I don't want a lecture about eyeing them up in the paddock).

Looking at both the 10f races on saturday, The Fugue would have been around 15l behind The United States after 3f but then she was ahead of him by the 3f marker. After that both came home at around the same speed. I have been going through a few past races at Leopardstown  and I do feel in the Irish Champion that they went too slow in the early section and then perhaps slightly too fast in the 2nd section.

Anyway there are 3 possibilities for the time to be slower than expected and they are a)that the ground deteriorated b)the race was not run in an efficient manner or c) the horses all ran way below their best. I'm going with b.

"Listen" AOB esk, G83, you should just stick to what you bet (pulled-up looser).
Never mind what I or anyone else bets in races, then again it sounds like you need all the help you can get, in all forms of life. Keep taking the tabs & stay off the lager.

Get a grip of yourself Miller, you old trout. You tried to take credit for the winning horse( with the face when The Fugue won) who you then tried to deny backing by saying you only backed one horse. You are bottom of the fools ladder. What kind of punter are you anyway, laying off a 7/2 shot ?

^ Tw At.

Like I say G83, you really do need to stay off the lager & keep taking those tabs.
Oh yes, & learn to read pre-race posts better, it mite help you out by not making an ass of yourself (prob not )
As for what kind of punter I`am, that would be something your deff not, a successful one.
Stick to going to the bingo with your granny