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Think Masked Marvel should be there or thereabouts , on at 33s 2 weeks back.
Good luck all |
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Taking a shot with My Quest for Peace tomorrow.....Drawn pretty well with Glencadem Gold to his outside so he should get a sweet tow off that one. Also would ignore most of his form his season....no idea why they were running him in the Doomben 10000 other than to get him race fit and cherry ripe..should love this step back up to 12 furlongs. Corey Brown flying in for the ride too. also like the odds.....30/1 will do for me.
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Wasn't Fiorente supposed to run in this? Will he head straight there now? On Twitter Gai Waterhouse keeps calling him a Superstar! Deffo the one to beat. He is perfectly bred for this race.
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In the Caulfield Cup I mean ..
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Fiorente is going for the Cox Plate. In her blog, Gai talks about Fiorente doing the Cox Plate Melbourne Cup double. ROFLMAO, I suppose.
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Round Table Racing on Twitter
So pleased to report Tres Blue has arrived safely at Werribee. He looks bright + v relaxed. ![]() Also on the plane were VEREMA, VOLEUSE DE COEURS, DUNADEN, RED CADEAUX, BROWN PANTHER, SHIKARPOUR and G1 Miler HAVANA GOLD. |
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wow, this is the first time I've looked at this thread
been looking at this race and came on to say 'really fancy Puissance De Lune' and the very first reply to the OP on page 1 says they'll never beat it ![]() |
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He ran a shocker today Judo.
Big run from Fiorente in 3rd from his wide draw conceding 9KG to winner. He is clear favourite now. If he gets a decent draw i'm all in. |
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Puissane De lune is out of the Melbourne Cup after pulling up lame in the Cox plate.
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Can anyone confirm that this time of the year in Australia is their spring?
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spring started sept 1st
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Does anyone know if Verema definitely gets in?
She is 27 on the list published today and I know the field size is 24 but I'm not sure if the Prix Kergolay is one of the win and you're in races. |
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Verema is 15th in order ......so is in.
Simenon is now 23 in order and is in as well now. |
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Top job thanks very much AFL.
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Simenon isn't safely in just yet. The winners of the Lexus and Mackinnon stakes at Flemington on Saturday are exempt from the ballot. Could be a nervous wait.
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I read somewhere today that Richard Hughes had been booked to ride Simenon so thought he was in. Maybe not 100% confirmed to run then...
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Well pleased with Tommy Berry getting the ride on Tres Blue, this fella is top draw IMO and a massive plus. His winning ride on Military Attack earlier on in the year at Sha Tin was sensational, he's a big race jockey and his results this year and last year prove it.
The only negative Tres Blue has is the record of 3yr olds in the race but he gets to carry a low weight (8st 0lb), so for me it's more of a plus. His form winning the Grand Prix De Deauville G2 has been franked by Cirrus Des Aigles and Penglai Pavilion, both winning next time up and running well in two G1's respectively. 25-1 still on offer is a big price and after the news on Sunday that TB got the ride I topped up my 33-1 EW bets and added 25-1 EW with BV. It looks like it will be Good, quick ground next Tuesday (sunny weather for 7 days) which will be another tick for Tres Blue, he has shown he likes Good ground coming a narrow 2nd in the German Derby (19 runners), plus he's by Anabaa Blue who loved quicker ground. I think more improvement will come on better ground and a longer trip. His gradual improvement has come when he has been stepped up in trip and I really do think this race is made for him... well, that's what I'm hoping for!!! His inexperience might catch him out against some seasoned campaigners but he has already shown large fields and racing against older horses hold no fears. I can't wait for next Tuesday, it should be a cracker. Good luck all! |
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var/sim for me....it wouldn't be a pitty if the Ozzy's corrupted the race and gave multiple entries to the hopeless, in order to keep other peoples chances out. You have to laugh at people calling Gai Waterhouse the queen. Her horses take more drugs than Pete Docherty.
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would be a pitty *
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Ahead of next Tues, can anyone recommend a link that will offer live streaming of the race? I will not have access to ATR. Thanks in advance.
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My apologies for the incorrect info re: Simenon.
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Agree with everything you say Mr Dinos. Have been backing him for a good while now, still surprised there is plenty of 20s available. Tommy Berry is a huge plus.
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Well I have done my short list:
Green Moon Manighar (looking like not running imo) Voleuse de Coeurs Fiorente just waiting on the draw now |
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Currently Fiorente is a standout 13/2, 4 places, with 3.65, whilst most others are 5/1. I've had a small nibble at the price. He's been running well over 10f and shorter in AUS when really he is bred for middle-distances and further. His best efforts have come over 12f on Soft and then 2 miles last year in this race. He is crying out for this trip.
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yes sint, can't see me backing anything else, I will be happy to have a smaller price once he gets a decent draw
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TRES BLUE UPDATE
Article from www.sportsfan.com.au There is hardly a more encouraging phenomenon in racing than an enthusiastic Gai Waterhouse - and at Werribee on Wednesday she was at her passionate best. The object of the Waterhouse ardour was her Melbourne Cup newcomer Tres Blue whose qualities have excited his trainer from the day he arrived from France. But on Wednesday she discovered a new facet to a horse who is creeping steadily into Cup reckoning. "He's very light on his feet," Waterhouse said. "Every day he's been here he's improved. He's loving the work, he's doing it well and he's very happy. "But I think you saw another aspect of him today." Tres Blue galloped over 1400m at Werribee with race jockey Tommy Berry in the saddle, finishing off strongly and continuing his work well after the line. "He picked up nicely and finished it off more like a sprinter than a stayer," Waterhouse said. The gallop is likely to be Tres Blue's final fast work before Tuesday's race for which he is a $21 chance. But his workload won't decrease for at least a few more days. "He's put on an enormous amount of weight since he's been here - he's strengthened right up," his trainer said. "In 10 days he's put on 25 kilos, he's just thriving. "The more work he does the more he eats. He's loving it. As unlikely as it may be that any doubt existed in the Waterhouse mind over Tres Blue, there was just a little to do with the horse's relative inexperience. But such thoughts have since been expelled. "I think he's well and truly mature enough," she said. "No problems with maturity." Gai is getting me excited! ![]() |
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judo - is the draw that relevant ? what does a good draw look like ?
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The info below is from Racecaller Melbourne Cup Trends 2013
In the past 10 years 16 of 20 horses to finish 1st or 2nd have been drawn in stalls 7 to 15. Shocking did amazingly well to win from stall 21 in 2009 as there has been a large big draw bias towards being drawn in the centre. The likely reasoning for this is that horses drawn on the inside will struggle to get a run if they do not break well while horses drawn wide may have to expend a lot of energy to get a good early position. Sums it up pretty well IMO. |
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In the past 10 years 16 of 20 horses to finish 1st or 2nd have been drawn in stalls 7 to 15.
so that's what I will be looking for |
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yup useful site indeed
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I think there was a headwind in Shocking's year, so when he was three wide or whatever and exposed in the back straight he was dealing with a tailwind, and therefore not inconvenienced.
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Always good to learn.......I genuinely thought the draw was almost irrelevant.
Melbourne Cup Winners Draw The draw for the Melbourne Cup is made on Victoria Derby day, three days before the race itself and as far as trends go, it doesn't appear to be as big a factor as it is in many races in Europe. The most successful Melbourne Cup draw is stall (or barrier) eleven with seven wins, whilst draw fourteen has had six winners. It's widely regarded that the extremes are not good when it comes to the Melbourne Cup draw and trainers would prefer their horses to be drawn around the middle opposed to the low or high numbers. |
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http://melbourne-cup.betting-directory.com/betting-trends.php
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I see Simenon now gets in (RP)
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Fiorente seems unfancied over here, is drifting a bit and is 9.4 on the exchange.
My other bet in the race is Royal Empire for Godolphin. He has looked really progressive this summer winning at Listed and G3 level before finishing 2nd under penalties in another couple of Group 3s. Last time out he was conceding 10lb to Secret Number. He takes the same route as Lost In The Moment via Ascot who was a very creditable 6th at Flemington. 33/1 looks huge to me. ![]() |
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waiting for the draw but 9.4 is huge for Fiorente
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Drawn 5 for Fiorente. 22 for Mount Athos. 11 for Royal Empire.
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Barrier 20 for Tres Blue not great but I'm not going to lose any sleep over it. I backed Jakkalberry EW last year and he was in barrier 19 and nearly won (3rd), if you look at the history (since 1925) of the race, horses have won from nearly every barrier. The only one you wouldn't want to be in is 18 (Hawkspur), no horse has won the Melbourne Cup from that barrier since 1925!
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MELBOURNE CUP (3200m), FLEMINGTON, NOVEMBER 5 . FINAL FIELD
(Apprentices cannot claim) Prize money: $6,000,000; 1st $3,600,000 and trophies $200,000; 2nd $900,000; 3rd $450,000; 4th $250,000; 5th $175,000; 6th-10th $125,000. 1 _ 3228 Dunaden (1) cw J Spencer 58.5 $26 2 _ s599 Green Moon (10) tc B Prebble 57.5 $26 3 _ 9624 Red Cadeaux (23) w G Mosse 56.5 $41 4 _ 0021 Sea Moon (7) w S Arnold 56.5 $14 5 _ s115 Brown Panther (6) dw R Kingscote 55 $21 6 _ 6143 Fiorente (5) wh D Oliver 55 $7.50 7 _ 1024 Foreteller (15) twh C Newitt 55 $21 8 _ 2212 Dandino (4) w R Moore 54.5 $9 9 _ 5004 Ethiopia (14) R McLeod 54.5 $61 10 _ 7531 Fawkner (8) twn N Hall 54.5 $16 11 _ s787 Mourayan (19) tdw B Avdulla 54.5 $101 12 _ 0917 Seville (9) m H Bowman 54.5 $19 13 _ 4935 Super Cool (13) th C Brown 54.5 $41 14 _ 0320 Masked Marvel (2) M Rodd 54 $31 15 _ 1582 Mount Athos (22) b C Williams 54 $7.50 16 _ 1122 Royal Empire (11) K McEvoy 54 $21 17 _ 1321 Voleuse De Coeurs (21) dwh J McDonald 54 $12 18 _ 1457 Hawkspur (18) wb J Cassidy 53.5 $11 19 _ 4223 Simenon (12) dw R Hughes 53.5 $19 20 _ 1801 Ibicenco (17) dw L Nolen 53 $41 21 _ 2511 Verema (3) w C Lemaire 53 $14 22 _ 3832 Dear Demi (16) tw C Munce 51 $16 23 _ 3211 Tres Blue (20) wh T Berry 51 $19 24 _ 3321 Ruscello (24) t C Schofield 50 $41 |
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My final short list is:
Green Moon Fiorente Seville Verema |