MELBOURNE CUP.

sid are you missing out on his g1 and g2 form in staying races?

TRES BLUE UPDATES


RacingNetwork.com.au

Gai Waterhouse is looking forward to this coming Saturday not just because she has two runners in the $2.65 million Caulfield Cup (2400m).

Gai will put the saddles on former Irish gallopers Glencadam Gold and Julienas in the Caulfield Cup, but her attention earlier in the day will be drawn to the Werribee Quarantine Centre.

Her latest international arrival will be the highly-rated Tres Blue, a horse purchased and sent to Australia with one race in mind – the Melbourne Cup.

“I’m excited about him, can’t wait to see how he has travelled when he gets here on Saturday morning,” Waterhouse told Racing Network this morning.

“He’s a beautiful horse, totally different to Fiorente, but I’ve been studying his videos and watching his form and he’s an exciting horse with genuine class,” she settled.

“I’m really looking forward to him arriving.”


Round Table Racing on Twitter

Today's update on Tres Blue. His UK prep could not have gone better. Now wishing him the safest of travels to Aus.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xvbV6o3m5E

Think Masked Marvel should be there or thereabouts , on at 33s 2 weeks back.



Good luck all

Taking a shot with My Quest for Peace tomorrow.....Drawn pretty well with Glencadem Gold to his outside so he should get a sweet tow off that one. Also would ignore most of his form his season....no idea why they were running him in the Doomben 10000 other than to get him race fit and cherry ripe..should love this step back up to 12 furlongs. Corey Brown flying in for the ride too. also like the odds.....30/1 will do for me.

Wasn't Fiorente supposed to run in this? Will he head straight there now? On Twitter Gai Waterhouse keeps calling him a Superstar! Deffo the one to beat. He is perfectly bred for this race.

In the Caulfield Cup I mean ..

Fiorente is going for the Cox Plate.  In her blog, Gai talks about Fiorente doing the Cox Plate Melbourne Cup double.  ROFLMAO, I suppose.

Round Table Racing on Twitter

So pleased to report Tres Blue has arrived safely at Werribee. He looks bright + v relaxed.

Also on the plane were VEREMA, VOLEUSE DE COEURS, DUNADEN, RED CADEAUX, BROWN PANTHER, SHIKARPOUR and G1 Miler HAVANA GOLD.

wow, this is the first time I've looked at this thread

been looking at this race and came on to say 'really fancy Puissance De Lune'

and the very first reply to the OP on page 1 says they'll never beat it

He ran a shocker today Judo.

Big run from Fiorente in 3rd from his wide draw conceding 9KG to winner. He is clear favourite now. If he gets a decent draw i'm all in.

Puissane De lune is out of the Melbourne Cup after pulling up lame in the Cox plate.

Can anyone confirm that this time of the year in Australia is their spring?

spring started sept 1st

Does anyone know if Verema definitely gets in?

She is 27 on the list published today and I know the field size is 24 but I'm not sure if the Prix Kergolay is one of the win and you're in races.

Verema is 15th in order ......so is in.

Simenon is now 23 in order and is in as well now.

Top job thanks very much AFL.

Simenon isn't safely in just yet. The winners of the Lexus and Mackinnon stakes at Flemington on Saturday are exempt from the ballot. Could be a nervous wait.

I read somewhere today that Richard Hughes had been booked to ride Simenon so thought he was in. Maybe not 100% confirmed to run then...

Well pleased with Tommy Berry getting the ride on Tres Blue, this fella is top draw IMO and a massive plus. His winning ride on Military Attack earlier on in the year at Sha Tin was sensational, he's a big race jockey and his results this year and last year prove it.

The only negative Tres Blue has is the record of 3yr olds in the race but he gets to carry a low weight (8st 0lb), so for me it's more of a plus. His form winning the Grand Prix De Deauville G2 has been franked by Cirrus Des Aigles and Penglai Pavilion, both winning next time up and running well in two G1's respectively. 25-1 still on offer is a big price and after the news on Sunday that TB got the ride I topped up my 33-1 EW bets and added 25-1 EW with BV.

It looks like it will be Good, quick ground next Tuesday (sunny weather for 7 days) which will be another tick for Tres Blue, he has shown he likes Good ground coming a narrow 2nd in the German Derby (19 runners), plus he's by Anabaa Blue who loved quicker ground. I think more improvement will come on better ground and a longer trip. His gradual improvement has come when he has been stepped up in trip and I really do think this race is made for him... well, that's what I'm hoping for!!!

His inexperience might catch him out against some seasoned campaigners but he has already shown large fields and racing against older horses hold no fears.

I can't wait for next Tuesday, it should be a cracker.

Good luck all!

var/sim for me....it wouldn't be a pitty if the Ozzy's corrupted the race and gave multiple entries to the hopeless, in order to keep other peoples chances out. You have to laugh at people calling Gai Waterhouse the queen. Her horses take more drugs than Pete Docherty.

would be a pitty *

Ahead of next Tues, can anyone recommend a link that will offer live streaming of the race? I will not have access to ATR. Thanks in advance.

My apologies for the incorrect info re: Simenon.

Agree with everything you say Mr Dinos. Have been backing him for a good while now, still surprised there is plenty of 20s available. Tommy Berry is a huge plus.

Well I have done my short list:

Green Moon
Manighar (looking like not running imo)
Voleuse de Coeurs
Fiorente

just waiting on the draw now

Currently Fiorente is a standout 13/2, 4 places, with 3.65, whilst most others are 5/1. I've had a small nibble at the price. He's been running well over 10f and shorter in AUS when really he is bred for middle-distances and further. His best efforts have come over 12f on Soft and then 2 miles last year in this race. He is crying out for this trip.

yes sint, can't see me backing anything else, I will be happy to have a smaller price once he gets a decent draw

TRES BLUE UPDATE


Article from www.sportsfan.com.au

There is hardly a more encouraging phenomenon in racing than an enthusiastic Gai Waterhouse - and at Werribee on Wednesday she was at her passionate best.

The object of the Waterhouse ardour was her Melbourne Cup newcomer Tres Blue whose qualities have excited his trainer from the day he arrived from France.

But on Wednesday she discovered a new facet to a horse who is creeping steadily into Cup reckoning.

"He's very light on his feet," Waterhouse said.

"Every day he's been here he's improved. He's loving the work, he's doing it well and he's very happy.

"But I think you saw another aspect of him today."

Tres Blue galloped over 1400m at Werribee with race jockey Tommy Berry in the saddle, finishing off strongly and continuing his work well after the line.

"He picked up nicely and finished it off more like a sprinter than a stayer," Waterhouse said.

The gallop is likely to be Tres Blue's final fast work before Tuesday's race for which he is a $21 chance.

But his workload won't decrease for at least a few more days.

"He's put on an enormous amount of weight since he's been here - he's strengthened right up," his trainer said.

"In 10 days he's put on 25 kilos, he's just thriving.

"The more work he does the more he eats. He's loving it.

As unlikely as it may be that any doubt existed in the Waterhouse mind over Tres Blue, there was just a little to do with the horse's relative inexperience.

But such thoughts have since been expelled.

"I think he's well and truly mature enough," she said.

"No problems with maturity."

Gai is getting me excited!

judo - is the draw that relevant ? what does a good draw look like ?

The info below is from Racecaller Melbourne Cup Trends 2013

In the past 10 years 16 of 20 horses to finish 1st or 2nd have been drawn in stalls 7 to 15.

Shocking did amazingly well to win from stall 21 in 2009 as there has been a large big draw bias towards being drawn in the centre. The likely reasoning for this is that horses drawn on the inside will struggle to get a run if they do not break well while horses drawn wide may have to expend a lot of energy to get a good early position.

Sums it up pretty well IMO.

In the past 10 years 16 of 20 horses to finish 1st or 2nd have been drawn in stalls 7 to 15.

so that's what I will be looking for

yup useful site indeed

I think there was a headwind in Shocking's year, so when he was three wide or whatever and exposed in the back straight he was dealing with a tailwind, and therefore not inconvenienced.

Always good to learn.......I genuinely thought the draw was almost irrelevant.

Melbourne Cup Winners Draw
The draw for the Melbourne Cup is made on Victoria Derby day, three days before the race itself and as far as trends go, it doesn't appear to be as big a factor as it is in many races in Europe. The most successful Melbourne Cup draw is stall (or barrier) eleven with seven wins, whilst draw fourteen has had six winners.

It's widely regarded that the extremes are not good when it comes to the Melbourne Cup draw and trainers would prefer their horses to be drawn around the middle opposed to the low or high numbers.

http://melbourne-cup.betting-directory.com/betting-trends.php

I see Simenon now gets in (RP)

Fiorente seems unfancied over here, is drifting a bit and is 9.4 on the exchange.

My other bet in the race is Royal Empire for Godolphin. He has looked really progressive this summer winning at Listed and G3 level before finishing 2nd under penalties in another couple of Group 3s. Last time out he was conceding 10lb to Secret Number. He takes the same route as Lost In The Moment via Ascot who was a very creditable 6th at Flemington. 33/1 looks huge to me.

waiting for the draw but 9.4 is huge for Fiorente

Drawn 5 for Fiorente. 22 for Mount Athos. 11 for Royal Empire.

Barrier 20 for Tres Blue not great but I'm not going to lose any sleep over it. I backed Jakkalberry EW last year and he was in barrier 19 and nearly won (3rd), if you look at the history (since 1925) of the race, horses have won from nearly every barrier. The only one you wouldn't want to be in is 18 (Hawkspur), no horse has won the Melbourne Cup from that barrier since 1925!

MELBOURNE CUP (3200m), FLEMINGTON, NOVEMBER 5 . FINAL FIELD

(Apprentices cannot claim) Prize money: $6,000,000; 1st $3,600,000 and trophies $200,000; 2nd $900,000; 3rd $450,000; 4th $250,000; 5th $175,000; 6th-10th $125,000.

1 _ 3228 Dunaden (1) cw J Spencer 58.5 $26

2 _ s599 Green Moon (10) tc B Prebble 57.5 $26

3 _ 9624 Red Cadeaux (23) w G Mosse 56.5 $41

4 _ 0021 Sea Moon (7) w S Arnold 56.5 $14

5 _ s115 Brown Panther (6) dw R Kingscote 55 $21

6 _ 6143 Fiorente (5) wh D Oliver 55 $7.50

7 _ 1024 Foreteller (15) twh C Newitt 55 $21

8 _ 2212 Dandino (4) w R Moore 54.5 $9

9 _ 5004 Ethiopia (14) R McLeod 54.5 $61

10 _ 7531 Fawkner (8) twn N Hall 54.5 $16

11 _ s787 Mourayan (19) tdw B Avdulla 54.5 $101

12 _ 0917 Seville (9) m H Bowman 54.5 $19

13 _ 4935 Super Cool (13) th C Brown 54.5 $41

14 _ 0320 Masked Marvel (2) M Rodd 54 $31

15 _ 1582 Mount Athos (22) b C Williams 54 $7.50

16 _ 1122 Royal Empire (11) K McEvoy 54 $21

17 _ 1321 Voleuse De Coeurs (21) dwh J McDonald 54 $12

18 _ 1457 Hawkspur (18) wb J Cassidy 53.5 $11

19 _ 4223 Simenon (12) dw R Hughes 53.5 $19

20 _ 1801 Ibicenco (17) dw L Nolen 53 $41

21 _ 2511 Verema (3) w C Lemaire 53 $14

22 _ 3832 Dear Demi (16) tw C Munce 51 $16

23 _ 3211 Tres Blue (20) wh T Berry 51 $19

24 _ 3321 Ruscello (24) t C Schofield 50 $41

My final short list is:

Green Moon
Fiorente
Seville
Verema

Verema(3) and Simenon(12). That'll do me. One owner has about 5 horses, and they all got drawn 10 or under. What are the chances of any of them doing some rough work and ruining it for someone else ?

Will there be much pace in the race?

Verema pour moi. Hopefully things don't get too rough few her early from #3 (something Tres Blue doesn't have to worry about). otherwise looks good. trainer and jockey know how to get this done. 

Might play them both in an exacta.

Shirley.....Simenon has to race on or near the speed and  turn the pace on about a mile out.

The trainer has said he is aware that you need a horse that can both sprint and stay to win the Cup, and that is why he has set this horse for the race. 

So tactical speed to put itself into a position on/or setting the pace....and the stamina to grind them home from a mile out.

Simenon has never won a group race, be a bit strange if he won his first one in this race imo

Has it placed or run a good race in any?

A maiden won the Cox Plate last week.

a 3 year old with good form
Simenon is 6 and never won a Group race, was second in a 2 mile 4 furlong Grade 1 this year

Cheers, fair enough.

So it has the stamina and the trainer has said that he is aware that stamina alone is not enough for the cup.... so it must have some tactical speed as well.

A good combination for this race if it has the speed as well imo.

not for me, Seville as an ex Euro horse been second in the Dante Stakes, second in the Irish Derby is a much more likely type than Simenon, got lots more speed than him, likewise Fiorente who is a similar type

Simenon started life as a jumping horse

No worries ive got Simenon and Seville

Good luck.

simenon started life as a 1m2 horse..where do you get ur info from jud?

Judo, what you're forgetting with Simenon is the upgrade in stable since his early flat racing years. WPM has improved this horse enormously.

yet he still has not won a Group race

the (tres) blue and black panther show

jesus the commission on the aussie markets are scandalous

You might want to check the colour of yer panther. Strange how he is double the price of Athos though.

Graeme83

One owner has about 5 horses, and they all got drawn 10 or under. What are the chances of any of them doing some rough work and ruining it for someone else?

Aussie trainer Robert Hickmott is the man in question and he has SIX, yes SIX runners in this race and all of them are owned by N C Williams, Mr & Mrs L J Williams Et Al. I would love to know the riding instructions for this lot! I agree Graeme this could get messy and screw up the whole race, five of them are drawn middle to low. Are they going to sacrifice some of their runners to gain an advantage and if they so which ones will they be!?

I'm sort of glad Tres Blue is drawn away from all of these, it could be a right old mess for the ones drawn on the inside. The one I worry about is Verema, she's only a little thing and I don't think she will enjoy this group ganging up on her.

Something to think about if you haven't placed a bet yet!

Listed below are the horses trained by Robert Hickmott and the barrier they will come from.

GREEN MOON (10)
SEA MOON (7)
FAWKNER (8)
MOURAYAN (19)
SEVILLE (9)
MASKED MARVEL (2)

I think we all might need some luck in running!

I meant do, not so!

Absolutely Mr Dinos. Many talk about the higher draw being a disadvantage, but if they break fairly slowly or evenly, then there is no great difference. Infact, it might be an advantage. As you say, it can get a bit rough in the low draw when they are all vying for the best spot, especially of a slow/moderate pace. I'd want to keep away from the rabble, but i'm not too dissapointed. I've one drawn low, and one drawn mid. Horses can find traffic anywhere.

set up for Seville I think, was second to Green Moon in the Turnbull in 2012 and about 8lb better for a length, did not run in the Cup last year, now 5 looks perfect

Yep Graeme, in any race with this amount of runners there are going to be hard luck stories but when one trainer and owner has this big a mob of runners it becomes even more tricky, especially if some of them might not be there for the right reasons!

Seville is one of their pacemakers Judo, cannon fodder for team Williams!

Only joking.

I've ended up backing Seville, Fiorente and Verema for various different amounts for a total of 8 points (2.5 ew Seville)

I have reservations about every runner in the race and could write an essay on each and their suitability or not for this race having spent a good few weeks looking at them all in detail. I looked at about a dozen variables and put them in order in terms of how many ticks and crosses they each got. Covers breeding, training, days off the track, form in certain races, winning Group races, placing in Grade 1s, wins at certain distances, draw, country bred in and so on

Can only cross fingers now

Sea Moon has top class form. If he is still anything like the horse who trashed many of this field in the Hardwicke he will take beating.

lol

something funny years ago made me think of black panther lol

I am not a fan of Simenon for this race and he may well win, but placing second in a Group 1 or 2 is better than winning a Group 3.

With Verema all her wins have come in single figure fields.

I've nailed my colours to Fiorente, really think he is the one given he has only had one start at 2 miles, 2nd in this last year, and could be at his best over that distant. Surely connections will know a lot more about the horse now. Royal Empire is the other at big price with Kerrin McEvoy aboard.

GL all.

Looks like Royal Empire is the Pricewise pick.

I think Koukash was pished when he spoke up Mount Athos chances. He was actually on the wine i think it was. One thing that doesn't add up to me is the situation with the trainer and his criticism of Spencer. If this horse was being under cooked for the Mel Cup, then why would you publicly criticise the jockey ? Either way, i think Panther is a better horse than Athos at this present time, and is better drawn. Why Athos was 7/1 and Panther 20/1 yesterday doesn't make much sense to me. There's only 2 pounds in it. I think the prices are getting closer now...10/1 - 16/1.

When i say better draw,...that's only if things go smoothly.    *

Athos came last on my spreadsheet

M.a Last and Seville first ? I think your spreadsheet is sponsored by Smirnoff.

Win lay sea moon place lay red cadueax.

2 easy winning bets.

Brown Panther was a vey fair  four length  seventh  to Danedream  in the2012 KG , his run at Goodwood over two miles  a couple of months back  was an eye opener he clearly revelled in the extended trip , can't take his last run over ten furlongs too seriously  as this race has been the aim  since Goodwood .He has been handed a good draw in stall six  and has a very good chance of winning if the rider does not squander the draw,  but sits with or just off the pace  gl

no Seville was not first on the spreadsheet, I just applied some logic and he was the one that was left along with Fiorente, Green Moon and Verema as I posted earlier in the thread

Mount Athos passed only 5 of the 12 tests I set them which was lowest of all the entries, not just the final declarations

Will follow you in on this one Rick - this race is your specialty. Fingers crossed.

should warn you I've never backed the winner of this!

very surprised to hear your interested in seville judo... horse as always been a rat bag for me or at least he was when racing over here...his three old career was arguably one of the worse years for the classic generation and i still haven't figured out till this day how the winner of the irish derby got a rating of 121...he looks very exposed now but you never know...was surprised to see him this short though thought he would be a 40 poke not 19...will be a changed horse for me as his overall profile of 2 wins from 18 starts tells its own story...i suppose his run against green moon is your and other punters angle...it opened up like the red sea for him in the metropolotian handicap and he also had a perfect trip that day...anyway wish you well judo just don't like the horrible creature myself

for what its worth as am out of form at present...i quite like royal empire and sea moon but looks an ultra tricky race to solve this...voleuse de coeurs was an interesting runner until being drawn in the car park a shame for her

as you saw on Saturday I am in screaming form, smashing the crap out of it the last few weeks

anyway, I applied a loads of trends and stats, eliminated those that fail on too many key ones, used the draw, the trainer and come to a bet - that's it, a bet

fair enough judo wish you well with him

have thrown a few quid on tres blus ,royal empire and green moon,  ,good luck fellow insomniacs ,

By the way....Mull Of Killough runs in the race just after the Cup @ 4.55AM. Its a Listed Race with a red hot fav that makes the market. Jamie Spencer (won on him twice with very forward rides) takes over from Steve Arnold....after the Side Glance heroics on Saturday I thought I'd mention it in case anyone decides to go back to bed.

sea moon@14/1

g/l all except MT

red cadeaux e w @70

Seville and Ethiopia E/W
G/L all

I'm bang out of form but I think Royal Empire, Red cadeax are too slow, Mount Athos not looking same horse as last year,I'm against most but last time out Fiorente didn't impress me (she avoided a bigger penalty) Brown Panther a twicer. Dunaden consistent could surprise. R Hughes rarely gives horse a bad ride, Simenon for me. Also bet Ruscello- can't give a reason why

reason for Ruscello....Chad Schofield young kid in the form of his life....Cox Plate making all on the bottom weight Shamus Award....heroics on Saturday to get Ruscello in the Cup with his Lexus Stakes win. would be some story if Chad can do it again.

Tommy Berry (Tres Blue) said yesterday that he would like to follow Ruscello across to get some cover up near the speed. Both have shown to be good out of the gates in past races so it might not be impossible. I do think it's all going to depend on how the ones on the inside go, especially those six Williams horses.

Very open Melbourne Cup, good luck all!

Lovely result that!! Sweet.

What great races Red Cadeaux and Mount Athos ran from their wide draws.

Glad Mount Athos got drawn 22, Can't stand the owner.

So the owner who had 6 runners didn't even have one in the top 5. Was amazed at the amount of Aussie previews I read tipping Seville. 2 wins from 18 starts before today.

I would love to have seen Mount Athos win for Luca. Luca should have won the MC already. Bauer's jockey was very weak in the finish when he lost by a nose.

Just pleased it was a proper, well-run MC this year unlike last year's farce.

Well done Fiorente supporters , he looked a million Dollars  before the cox plate and has now  won a fair bit more than that ...thought brown panther might have done a bit better on   ground with a bit more give  as never looked happy ,but was given every chance by Jockey ,i think you have to get over there a  good few weeks before the cup to have a reasonable chance and a prep race is probably called for , Fiorente was sitting up  really as a  sound bet

Janthefish 04 Nov 13 21:52 Joined: 13 May 11 | Topic/replies: 61 | Blogger: Janthefish's blog
I'm bang out of form but I think Royal Empire, Red cadeax are too slow, Mount Athos not looking same horse as last year,I'm against most but last time out Fiorente didn't impress me (she avoided a bigger penalty) Brown Panther a twicer.

that's impressive, Jan. From just five horses, you nailed the tricast

Brown Panther suffered some big cuts to his leg so he ran a great race in the circumstances.

no need for that pedro...funny though

He did run a three legged sort of race , hear  the injury is not serious , so that is one good outcome

just reading the papers around melbourne.a picture of damien oliver passing the line on the winner.he appeared to have a set of spurs on his boots?i thought they were banned years a go?or am i seeing things..