Horse Antepost
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These 849 comments are related to the topic:
National Hunt 2013/14 Big Races thread.
National Hunt 2013/14 Big Races thread.
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Replies: 849
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Fox Norton* FFS
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2pts jaunty journey 10/1 coral 1.15 newbury
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1-30 chep Ugly Bug 1pt 11/1 888
2-35 chep Knock A Hand 1pt e/w 20/1 365 5 pl 3-10 chep Frontier Spirit 1pt 20/1 various Balance 0 / 4 IP GI MAC 07-08 post stick a name down M8,early start? Good Luck All |
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1 pt win rule the world 7-2 laddies
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2.55 Leopardstown - Sir Des Champs 1pt EW 7/2, 3.65.
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tremendous punt Chelsea.
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-4pts
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+0.8 / 0 IP
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Ugly Bug -1
K A Hand -2 F Spirit -1 balance 0 / 0 IP VWP Chelsea and todays winners |
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time for you to do a tally up CH! Merry Xmas bosh.
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Sint, you have a persuasive tone, and as I'm sitting here saving myself for tomorrow may as well do a tally:
Rob Conti -2 Wishfull Thinking -2 Special Catch -2 Any Currency -2 Houblon Des Obeaux +36 Cue Card -3 Rajdhani Express -2 Thomas Crapper +35.2 Bradley -2 Rajdhani Express +2 Silver Eagle +2 Tanerko Emery -4 Clondaw Kaempfer -2 Bobs Worth -3 Master of the Sea -2 Lord Windermere -2.5 Puffin Billy -2.5 Twelve Roses -1.5 Houblon Des Obeaux -1 Handy Andy -2.5 Anay Turge -2 Duke of Navan -3 Roberto Goldback -2 Calculated Risk -2 Garde La Victiore -2 Garde La Victiore -2.5ip Thomas Crapper -2 Irving +5.5 Twelve Roses -2.5 Cue Card -2 Calculated Risk +7.5 Moutainous +57.5 Shantou Magic -2 Total cf +84.7 (2.5ip) A few observations: I'm 38, been betting since I was a young teen yet still make elementary misjudgements. Challow today perfect example. Decide want to take on Oscar Rock (doesn't look same horse since change of stable in hindsight). Decide the Ascot bumper form of Capt Cutter and Shantou Magic is key. CC finished ahead of SM 4l giving 7lb. Watch videos of this season and SM looks more impressive. Add trainer of SM much more positive re. ground, at prices, mentally toss coin and the visual impression of SM beats formbook. Result: -2 Not sure which of these season long threads but sure it was Sint that asked once upon a time if anyone had analysed whether covering win stake with a place bet was paying off. Whilst I haven't, and this season may be an anomoly, I'm sure if I do, the place stake is a waste. However, wouldn't pick Mountainous as 4pt w today so not sure how to make this work more profitably. Advice greatly received. Reluctant to let Bobs Worth pass today but tough to back after Haydock. Travelled much better and looks clear GC fav again. If I back Cue Card, you don't. Cheers everyone participating, great thread and some cracking punters out there showing consistent profits year after year. |
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Silver Eagle should be -2 but doesn't alter P&L
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G -4
Balance +34.6 / 4 IP Terrific shout with Mountainous today CS  In reply to your E/W question,I don't think there is a set answer.Some bets will be profitable as E/W pokes,and some not.For example I'd be reluctant to bet E/W on a competitive 15 runner H'cap,or a competitive 14+ runner non-H'cap,or say 20+ runner H'caps.In saying that,I did back E/W in the Taffy National today,as I had the concession of 5 places (would have needed 9 places to have collected though  )Similarly I'd be happy to back E/W on a 3/1 + runner in a 8 or 9 runner race as the place element would be heavily in my favour in most cases. I guess what I'm trying to say is each bet should be looked at on its respective merits.Backing solely win only,or solely E/W is wrong IMO.Not sure if that's helpful or not,and apologies if it's too simplistic,but that's my take on the situation. |
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2.00 Leopardstown
Our Conor 4pts @ 5/2 Boylesport Balance +30.6 / 8 IP |
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the idea is too make money or at the very least break even. I for one would never back a 3-1 shot e/w
3-1 1/5 the place is not the type of bet id do, but each to their own |
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1-15 donc Mister Dillon 1pt win 8/1 various
-1 / 1 IP |
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3.05 Leopardstown
Morning Assembly 4pts @ 6/4 **** Balance +26.6 / 12 IP |
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* Boylesport.
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Ante Post
Morning assembly 2pts win @ 14/1 RSA Chase(Lardblokes) |
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Next Sensation
12:40 Doncaster 1 point win 100/30 8888 sport |
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WP brandy & nocturnal
OC -4 MA -4 Balance +26.6 / 4 IP |
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WP Brandy
Thanks Hems M Dillon +8 Balance +8 / 0 IP Re Each Way...chelsea/hems,interesting points,seen many arguments for both sides coin. If we are talking simplistic,rarely do I back E/W in H,Caps,purely because I,m looking for horses whose current mark,as we all are,do not reflect their ability! However,always in two minds re graded races where prizemoney/value are uppermost in trainers thoughts,and possibly owners. ?worth a fred to get some views,every day should be a learning day. |
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Bob Ford 1.55 Haydock 2pt win @ 9/2 (v!ctor)
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WP nocturnal. Great pick
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Nice P&L CH.
Yes it was me who mentioned it a couple of years ago. On one thread I posted +130 points but if I had done Win only it would have been well over 200. Similarly, on the flat turf thread this year I posted a 19pt loss but again it would have been a +30pt profit to win bets. It is the only time in the last 4/5 years i've posted a loss on one of these threads. My staking has always been an issue in terms of maximising profit. Generally speaking with bets where I put on 3pts+ my strike rate is good so should just do win bets instead of eachway! Sometimes it can depend if there is strong favourite in the race but if the strike rate is good then should definitely just go Win only. Maybe in 2014. |
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+39.20 14 IP
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been a crap xmas for me a 5pt non runner and the rest placed
-5 ballycasey -3 TNO -2 jezki -1 al ferof -10.50 18 IP |
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What's the 'IP' mean fellas?
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in play so sint is 53.20 in profit well done sint
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bets placed ante-post Brandy so deducted from P&L. Long way to go yet alleged . Most of my in-play bets look shaky to say the least!
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Thank you.
Yea Sint looking good. Got lots of ground to make up |
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1-40 Uttox Ironic 11/1 365 1pt
2-10 Uttox Quick Decisson 6/1 365 1 pt +6 / 2 IP Brandy....don,t be fooled,they told me INFALLIBLE PUNTS!!!! Sint....thats serious difference in P/L re E/W ? Looking at Chelsea P/L reflects exactly same (hope thats ok CH ) His 3 best winners alone would have netted an extra 43 pts if win only to same stakes,adding another 50% to his excellent pts total. |
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Ante Post
Racing Pulse 1pt Win @ 20/1 Albert Bartlett (Vics NRFB) Racing Pulse 1pt win @ 25/1 Neptune (SJ) -1.2 / 4 IP |
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That's amazing. I've long believed e/w betting is the bookies' friend. The problem is psychological;
you bet (say) a 20/1 chance and you can't bear the idea of getting zilch if it comes 2nd. From now on (shoot me if I break this rule) I'm only having e/w against odds on favourites when B365 have a stupid set of prices that effectively leaves them overbroke. |
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nothing worse than backing one e/w to find the other one you liked goes and wins, its why in these instances I will back the 2 to win and I forget about e/w, like in the stewert family GC earlier in this thread, but on the other hand if only 1 horse is giving me that look then I will back each way, just have to take each race on its merits....
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Just bet/stake the way you feel most comfortable. The key is finding the horse for the right reason ( chance of winning and relative price ). Start changing your stakes and you run the risk of looking at your choice in a different light.
Anyway Happy New Year all |
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Cheltenham 12.10
Ballyalton 2.5pt w 2/1 lad |
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Happy New Year all.
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12-10 Vivaldi collonges 10/1 sj 1pt win
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happy new year sint and to all the regular posters
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