|
By:
Exactly, even when they're accurate they don't directly lead to a pot of gold but they're an excellent starting point. When people are given duff ratings then every other betting decision becomes dodgy.
|
|
By:
Impressive from The Fugue there.
Sandown, how are you liking seeing these sectionals on the screen and on the website now, is it making life easier? |
|
By:
Very helpful Stevie.It's worth taking your own splits to check just how good/poor they are when compared.
|
|
By:
Sandown
Hasn't there been some discrepancies between the on screen final times and the official ones? |
|
By:
Breathing operation planned for Toronado
By Paul Eacott 2:47PM 22 AUG 2013 TORONADO looks set to have a breathing operation after his disappointing last of six in Wednesday's Group 1 Juddmonte Stakes at York. The top-class miler was found to have been coughing after the race and connections revealed on Thursday that they are now looking at the option of operating on the brilliant winner of the Sussex Stakes. Assistant trainer Richard Hannon junior said: "What happened was very similar to the Guineas. We were happy with him coming into the race but he wasn't breathing right in the race and he just cut out and emptied. "He displaced his soft palate, just as he did at Newmarket, so we will probably have it cauterised. It only takes two weeks to have that put right so he'll come back in the autumn and go back to a mile at Ascot or in America." RP |
|
By:
Indeed Figgis. It's quite common for some reason.Not significant enough to be a worry. I just stick with the official time.
|
|
By:
Figgis and Sandown a couple of questions.
I don't follow speed figures or times only as a minor guide among many other things. Can you tell me if cutting the grass during a meeting like the July meeting at Newmarket has any effect on your speed figures? In the 70's when watering was pretty well non existent the courses always ensured there was a very good covering of grass how does that relate to watered ground without a good covering of grass? |
|
By:
No, times are compared with other races on the day, so the effect is the same for all.
|
|
By:
brigust1
Agree with Figgis, but I am aware that the direction of the grass cut may have an effect. Hence, "the golden highway" type comments.Also, I do not like heavy watering as it invariably is not even due to wind, drainage. And if it rains on watered ground then "red lights" flash.Finally, important to know reasons for draw bias such as joggers, vehicles etc compressing ground. Personally, I work with an error range of +/- 3-5lbs in the back of my head when looking at figures. |
|
By:
I think a bigger problem is the ignorance of the wind factor. When it is accounted for it is often underestimated and/or expected to be the same for every race. All races over the same part of the track are nearly always directly compared with others on the same part. Admittedly it has to be a starting point but it is ridiculous to stick to this when it doesn't really tally with what we've witnessed. A recent example is Our Obsession's previous York win, a direct comparison with the Gp2 would lead us to believe it was a pretty slow overall time. Even though the early pace may not have been the quickest I'd argue the overall time was pretty good. It was slow, however, for her race today.
|
|
By:
I agree with Sandown about watering and, for me, the other point that is overlooked is that watered ground can dry out rapidly from early races to later ones, this is rarely accounted for.
|
|
By:
Thanks for the replies lads, certainly makes very interesting reading on how you arrive at your figures, sometimes differently. I don't use time as much as you obviously do, prefer to see winning distances and use the class of the race. Ie, for me, if a horse wins a listed race by 2l lengths or more, it's worth a step up in grade, if a horse wins a group3 by 2 lengths or more, it's worth a step up to group 2 etc. Obviously, this theory has its faults and can be shot down. Would class and winning distance come into your figures, regardless of time?
Figgis, Thanks for the answers, pretty much what I was expecting, except a curt dismissal of the French guineas winner, especially considering the subsequent form of the beaten horses, they are littered with group wins and placings. Would the draw bias have a huge impact with you for that particular race? |
|
By:
Would class and winning distance come into your figures, regardless of time?
Yes definitely. Twonky, I think he's a horse with a decent turn of foot but he's limited in a fast run race. The French Guineas was slowly run, which, along with the draw, hindered Intello. |
|
By:
Twonky,
I will base my speed figures by looking at previous best speed figures for each runner but also by what speed figures I would expect for each class of race. I would then come to an allowance for each race and it would often be the same allowance when it's all going well but sometimes you'll see the allowance change for later races on in the card suggesting the ground has got faster or something or if there is a headwind or tailwind up the straight then I'll have to make adjustments for each race on the round course to allow for this. For instance in a 12f race they would be getting the benefit of the tailwind in the straight for less than the 10f race and getting the headwind for longer in the back straight. |
|
By:
Toronado pulled too hard early on and didn't get home. Decent miler though even if not as good as Canford Cliffs (despite what Richard Hughes says).
|
|
By:
Toronado has breathing problems and is being operated on. That answers a few questions anyway.
|
|
By:
Brigust, at the moment I think they've only said they'll probably have him operated on. If it was purely down to that then I'd fully expect him to show his best form again next time out, there's no reason why he shouldn't, as they've said it's only a simple matter to sort out. However, if he doesn't show his best form I'll believe that it was more than that.
Here is the trainer's excuse for Al Kazeem "I thought that the fast ground was 90 per cent responsible for his below par effort and the remaining 10 per cent was perhaps due to him being too fresh after his break," On times the ground was only slightly faster on Wednesday than when Al Kazeem put up his best ever performance in winning the Eclipse, in fact as there was a fresh tailwind at York and virtually none at Sandown I'd argue that it was probably a bit quicker at Sandown. Some may choose to believe the excuse put forward but for me the reason was more likely to be some fatigue after his earlier efforts, which was seen as a possibility before the race, instead of just an after time excuse. |
|
By:
Hi Figgis. When I thought Toronado might not run again this season it was based upon the fact I thought he was coughing. A soft palate operation is not so time related so he should run again this season. A small problem here though is that he weakened so badly at York. Was it due to lack of air or Hughes pulling him up? If it was the former he may need a run to let him know he can fully breathe again.
I'm taking the trainers excuse for AK with a pinch. I didn't think he would be placed and he wasn't. That was based on his form and nothing that happened in the race told me he was a proper Gr1 horse. I thought that before and still do. And this race may struggle to be considered a solid Gr1 race anyway. How good is the winner? Is he a solid Gr1 winner or more than likely a Gr1 place horse able to pick up the occasional weaker Gr1's. A bit like St Nicholas Abbey. The 2nd horse was running over too short a trip I thought but Bolger is running him in the Irish Champion next. He obviously doesn't think he has the class to win the Arc. I think Charlton thinks the same. |
|
By:
I said at the time that AK didn't enjoy the ground at Sandown and he won despite that. The uphill finish there is a help for horses with a soft ground preference running on firm ground. York being a flat surface is not so helpful in that respect. The horse is a big gross horse, not built to enjoy a fast surface. I don't know why they ran him at York knowing all of this. I also believe him to be better at 12f. They will probably send him to the Arc as it will be his last hurrah but I don't believe him to be up to the standard required.
The breathing problem for Toronado seems now to the only excuse being offered. Was the coughing related? It would explain his run at Newmarket. |
|
By:
For the POW, the ground, while not quite as fast as at Sandown, was very much in the good to firm bracket. I find it strange that he can put up two continuous improved peak performances on good to firm if he struggles to perform on it, but each to their own.
|
|
By:
Figgis
Ascot, like Sandown, rises fore the last 2f, so the same argument applies.Furthermore, the condition of the grass ia a big factor and at Ascot the grass is thick having been relaid in the past few years. York is flat and the grass/ground may be less helpful. It's not just about times.The horse's physique & action are major factors.Plus Sandown, Ascot, Curragh are all RH.May be a factor even though he has won LH at Newbury albeit off 95 in a h/c. |
|
By:
Curragh also rises at finish, of course. May be significant.
|
|
By:
Sandown, while other elements are relevant, for me the ultimate evidence is in the results, but as I said each to their own. It's all about opinions and all that but I don't follow some of your reasoning. After the POW you said Al Kazeem was a worthy Gp1 winner and up to standard, I thought he was a bit below. It could be argued you were more right than me as he went on to win another. You say he's a better horse on easier ground. How much would you estimate? If we're going to say a horse would be better than I think even a conservative estimate of better would be, say, 2lbs, anything less would be negligible. You also say he's better at 12f, which applying the same criteria would equal another 2lb. However, you say you don't believe he's up to Arc standard, a race over 12f often run on easier ground. Taking out exceptional winners like Sea The Stars, how much better would he have to be to be Arc standard?
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
for those who think Al Kazeem was below par, are you suggesting that a top form Mukhadram (probably no worse than 1 length his inferior) would have beaten DoW and Trading Leather on Wednesday?
|
|
By:
Ped, I reckon it would've been very close and I don't even rate Al Kazeem especially high. In the event that might not have been the case as Mukhadram has had some punishing races, it's no surprise that form gets turned around at this stage of the season.
|
|
By:
To win the Arc the winner needs to run to 130+ .I've got AK pegged in the mid 120's. Given soft ground he may run to a place.That said, he's relatively lightly raced for his age and at double figures there would be worse bets.
|
|
By:
Whilst there are question marks around RPR Solemia was 123 last year and Danedream was 128 the year before
I can't see anything this year that's really on the same level as Workforce, See the Stars or even Dylan Thomas For me there are a lot of evenly matched horse in this years Arc, which is why it looks an interesting race |
|
By:
Ash, there's certainly no outstanding contender, imo, and in years like that almost anything within Gp1 standard can win. There is also a strong possibility that the winner might not necessarily be the very best horse of the season but one who has been geared specifically towards the race and performs best on the day.
|
|
By:
totally agree with you Figgis
|
|
By:
I will be very, very disappointed if a 3 year old doesn't win the Arc.
|
|
By:
Reasons why AK is not the most likely Arc winner
1. Hasn't yet looked as though he can deliver 130+ rating 2. Has not had the ideal prep 3. WFA age seems to favour 3 yr olds , and disfavour 5 yr + w. There are are several better placed contenders being targeted at the race |
|
By:
Flintshire is still a dark horse for me, but as to the others there's nothing I've seen yet to make me want to back them. Maybe somebody can back a handful of them and hope to cover the winner but anybody who can confidently name the likely winner at this stage gets my respect.
|
|
By:
Treve's record breaking form in the Diane is working out and the trainer knows the Arc time of day. And Intello must be pretty good for them to run him in the Marois with the Arc in mind.
I am of the opinion a lot of horses run over 12f because they are basically slow. Not plodding slow but unable to win over much shorter distances. I think that shows class. |
|
By:
The French 3yos looks smart & as norm will be train with The Arc in mind.
But, like last year if the ground comes up heavy, its anyone`s race. |
|
By:
A few teething troubles with the on screen sectionals, judging by the Nunthorpe.
|
|
By:
Looks like the arc is shaping up to be the race of the season. Novellist, Intello, Treve ( red hot form post and pre Diane from the second third and fourth, and now throw in The Fugue, who like Treve is a 4l group1 winner against her own sex.
How would you guys rate the 2 females in that line up? Personally, I'd be against The Fugue. I think she needs a left handed track or a track with a long straight to cope with her long fluent action. The canadian international at Woodbine would, IMO, be her best chance of a group 1 against the males. |
|
By:
I couldn't have The Fugue on my mind. The race would have to cut up badly or form capitulate for her to have a chance. The Novellist is a strong stayer with form on any ground and will be a decent yardstick but I prefer the 3 year old's at this moment in time.
|
|
By:
Good morning Figgis. I don't know if you have read Hughes's column in the RP but he has confirmed a point I have raised on many occasions and that is the grass on racecourses. York underwent major course improvements, like Ascot and Doncaster among others, and Hughsie points out quite clearly how the grass type and cutting can make a difference in race times etc. It may also confirm AK's inability to act on the going. We will see.
|
|
By:
Brigust, I don't see the relevance to race times on the same day?
|