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cryoftruth
29 Jul 13 20:50
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Date Joined: 22 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 7,102 | Blogger: cryoftruth's blog
Hi Soldier

hope all is well with you.

Any idea which Ballydoyle beast will be over for the International?

I was thinking that the likely candidate might be Magician. He looked brilliant in the Irish Guineas, but has already won over 10 furlongs.

Any news you can share?

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Replies: 229
By:
soldieroffortune
When: 29 Jul 13 22:37
cryoftruth I hope all is well my friend.

Once again Mrs soldieroffortune has deliberately booked our holiday in Spain to coincide with your meeting there in York. For the last time I've told her that if she does it again next year I'm leaving home! You should have seen the smile on her face! Shocked

You could well be spot on with Magician. An excellent early season he had and for a couple of reasons you could put a line through his run there in Ascot the last day. He'd hurt himself leading up to the race and in hindsight they should have left him at home. The International would be perfect for him and I reckon they'll send him over.

Mars in my opinion has a big race in him. He's had a busy campaign and competed well at the highest level, without quite getting his head in front. He hated the soft ground there at Leop the last day and if it's Good or on the fast side with you in York he'd go well on it.

Ruler Of The World is interesting and they might drop him back in trip for this. I was in Epsom for his English Derby win and he sparkled that day - his trainer had a job to hang onto him when they were leaving the parade ring and you could tell he was absolutely spot on for the race. It wasn't him at all when he ran a bit flat in the Derby next time, and a bit like Mars a break and a rest are probably in order. You look at him on his breeding as a Galileo out of a Kingmambo mare and certainly he'd have enough speed to win your race in York.

The other one they might consider is Most Improved. He looked well and truly in need of the race the last day and he'll strip a lot fitter next time. He's got a bit to prove though now.

Expect a couple of Ballydoyle raiders cryoftruth and without doubt one of them will take home the prize! Grin
By:
San Quentin
When: 30 Jul 13 07:47
any news on kingsbarns?sof
By:
soldieroffortune
When: 30 Jul 13 21:34
SQ a single run or at best a couple of races is the best they can hope for this season given his injury problems in the spring, plus I'd heard he was still heavy in his weight. They won't bring him to the track unless he's spot on.

With the season drawing on my own view is they should look at calling time on it this season and focus on a future career for him at 4 and beyond. Look at a horse like Yeats who missed his season at 3 and went on to absolute greatness. Kingsbarns has a huge amount of talent and ability and there is very little point in trying to run him as a 3YO at the possible expense of a potentially glittering career as part of the older generation.
By:
San Quentin
When: 31 Jul 13 08:47
thanks for your thoughts sof
By:
Millerracing67
When: 31 Jul 13 13:00
I like Magician & took the small amount of 20s about him on here for this.
Fast ground would be a must over 10f+ & York's flat speed track would suit him.
He & Al Kazeem would be my 2 atm, the later would not want it to fast tho.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 05 Aug 13 12:10
There are more than just you me and soldieroffortune fancy Magician for this by the looks of the betfair market.

small stakes admittedly.
By:
keynes
When: 06 Aug 13 12:26
soldierofortune, do you think Ernest Hemingway will run in the Ebor? He is a beautiful colt with great potential, who was very impressive last day.
By:
soldieroffortune
When: 07 Aug 13 20:43
keynes you're right he's an absolutely beautiful colt by Galileo out of a Darshaan mare. Superb he was there the last day as you say.

They won't go down the Ebor route with him but expect him to appear at the Leger in Ireland. Longer term I can absolutely see this fellow as a Cup horse and there are some big prizes to be won with him for sure! Yeats would be the greatest racehorse I ever followed, so it's good to find one to follow him down a similar path.
By:
soldieroffortune
When: 08 Aug 13 21:31
Excellent win for him tonight keynes and the Irish Leger looks like the next step.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 13 Aug 13 07:00
I think there may be a new favourite for the International before long.

Toronado (132 T/F) probably has better form than Al Kazeem (129), and is certainly bred to stay (timeform said that he "has prospects of staying 12 furlongs".

Hope Toronado and Magician come to York; it would then have the makings of a real cracker.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 15 Aug 13 16:01
Magician not in 5day dec's Plain
By:
Try My Best
When: 15 Aug 13 20:05
Toronado doesn't look like another 2 furlongs will be up his street imo irrespective of his breeding and I think the Coolmore camp will have Camelot right back to his best next week. His second to the fav in ireland beaten under 2 lenghts when he was obviously not at the peak of his capabilities doesn't look too bad to me now. I know everybody has written him off as a poor Derby winner but I believe in this horse and I think 1m 2f on quick ground on a nice level course will be too his advantage.
By:
brigust1
When: 15 Aug 13 20:39
I know where you are coming from TMB but I cannot find a form line of his for him to return to. If he had been good, beating good horses then there is the hope he can return to that level but I can't find a level of form that, if he reached it, he would be in with a chance with.
By:
A_T
When: 15 Aug 13 20:52
Fascinating installment in the Coolmore guessing game series
By:
Try My Best
When: 15 Aug 13 21:17
His form against AK in Ireland when not quite right would not put him far behind surely Brigust or am I clutching at straws. I just think the fav has had plenty of tough races, Toronado I can't have at the trip and I never heard O'Brien talk about Ruler of the World in the same way as Camelot.I know people will go on about the coolmore hype but at the prices I think Camelot is the value after a nice break.
By:
brigust1
When: 15 Aug 13 22:28
I was all over Camelot in his last race thinking AK was given an easy time in their first meeting. But watching the race several times I think the 4 lengths in the POW was just about right. I know AOB said they had been too easy on the horse and it was now rime to get serious and the fact they have kept him in training must mean something. After all when he first met AK he was 1/3.

My problem is I don't rate Al Kazeem at all. Has he improved or is the opposition poor? If he has improved then so has Mukhadram and Ektihaam and Thomas Chippendale and so has Declaration of War. Have they all improved or is the opposition weak?

That then only leaves the 3 three year olds and surely Toronado has the best form? Trading Leather won the Irish Derby but his other form is not great and he beat Hillstar whose other form is not great. I know CDA was the fly in the ointment in the King George but I can't make him out at the moment.

In conclusion I think the only true Group 1 horse in the race is Toronado.
By:
brigust1
When: 15 Aug 13 22:38
Of course that is assuming Ruler of World doesn't run. The betting suggests not but he is the one who could put the pace into the race. In the Derby he looked like a 10f horse and through Libertarian and Mars the form us there.Add to that there are no guaranteed front runners I can see him setting out in front and having the class and stamina to stay there. Will he run though?
By:
Millerracing67
When: 16 Aug 13 10:09
Like a lot of punters this season (brigust) you still don't rate Al Kazeem ???
I like him & after the Ire race where he took care of Camelot in ready style I was in no doubt he would do so again at Royal Ascot.
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Aug 13 12:54
The problem Miller is that as a punter you have to decide. You cannot go with everything. Of course I did back him in the Eclipse but only because it wasn't a proper Group 1 race imo. The horses he has beaten are either out of form or not true Group 1 so 4/5 is flipping short. Don't you think?

I've already backed Ruler of the World at big prices to win a monkey and I have had a small stake saver on Camelot just last night. I think my money is already lost but you never know.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 16 Aug 13 16:37
That seems a strange way of punting imo. You don't rate the horse but backed him in the Eclipse ??? The only thing I agree with in your post's is that 4/5 is very short atm, but that's because the rest are not certain runners yet. If some of the gd ones turn up nxt wk he will be odds against ( Toronado, Ruler of T W).
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Aug 13 16:45
You have to understand the basics Miller. The Eclipse was a weak race and he was clearly the best horse. In saying I dnt really rate him doesn't mean he cannot win races ffs. The International, at the moment, looks significantly stronger than the Eclipse but if it cuts up badly then AK may end up being a good thing. It is all relative. If the current field ran as it is I doubt very much AK would be odds on he is ony that because of the doubts surrounding the others, as you say. No matter what I think about the rating of a horse that doesn't mean he isn't going to be highest rated in some races, does it?
By:
Millerracing67
When: 16 Aug 13 17:00
I understand the "basics" of racing very well brigust. The form of the Eclipse (a weak race iyo) is soild imo, Declaration of War is one of the main form guides into the top G1 form this year over 1m/10f. In my time in racing & betting I have never bet a horse to win a race that I "just don't rate" Crazy  But every punter to their own.
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Aug 13 18:12
You think the Eclipse was a solid Gr1 race? The winner apart the only other horse rated 120 was Mukhadram who achieved his high rating by beating beaten my Al Kazeem so a rating by association. So it wasn't that solid Miller.
I don't rate Al Kazeem as being a top class Group 1 horse but I think his rating should be at least 4lbs lower. We'll see what happens in the future.
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Aug 13 18:13
*being beaten by
By:
sinndar001
When: 17 Aug 13 09:05
Hi SOF,

Would you have any insight into the chances of Hall Of Mirrors in the Voltiguer? I have been looking forward to him since his comfortable win in Gowran. I was there that day and I thought he was a striking colt. While that win was off 87 he appealed as the type to improve as a 3yo and possibly develop into a Derby horse. Alas that wasn't to be but it's great to see him with an entry in a race like this and here's hoping he'll develop into a top middle distance stallion prospect.

Cheers.
By:
A_T
When: 17 Aug 13 11:07
Coolmore have 8 still in the race so the odds must be against it even running.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 17 Aug 13 18:09
they only have 4 left in now A_T - DoW, ROTW, Kingsbarns and Camelot - interesting that Kingsbarns is still in and that they have no pacemaker!
By:
brigust1
When: 17 Aug 13 19:02
My thinking was that they were running either ROTW or Camelot with a view to making their own running. Don't think they will run both but what do I know? I think one will run here and the other in the Irish Champion.
By:
A_T
When: 17 Aug 13 21:27
ReaseHeath I was actually referring to the Voltigeur.

I would think DoW will be their only runner in the International. Not sure why the others are still entered but that's the sort of thing they do.
By:
Akak
When: 18 Aug 13 21:21
Looks like Toronado will be in the line up. Money for him now ante-post. Will probably go off favourite. LoveLoveLove
By:
Millerracing67
When: 19 Aug 13 10:25
Hannon has given him the go-ahead for the big 1 on wed Cool.
Thank god for that, as it looked a 1 horse race until now.
Very interesting race now & fast ground will be in his favour.
If he gets the trip well he could take the beating, but he will need to with Al Kazeem in the race. Will Charlton let him go again if it comes up very fast going tho??? If the weather is correct its going to be quick come day 1 on Weds.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 19 Aug 13 10:36
Disagree it was a one horse race without Toronado - hoping Trading Leather might be some value now that Toronado runs.
By:
brigust1
When: 19 Aug 13 10:38
I was wrong about AOB once again. He has Declaration of War in and he is also entered in the Haydock Sprint. What is he at?

Glad to see Toronado running and the 3 year olds look well represented in this so we should get some idea where they stand.

If AK is evens or less I will be taking him on. I could be wrong but that's racing.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 19 Aug 13 10:57
Don't rate Al Kazeem and Toronado, while the classiest horse in the race, has stamina to prove (and he had a hard race at Goodwood). Declaration Of War has been on the go a long time and Rewarded is a no hoper, so split stakes on Hillstar @ 14/1 and Trading Leather @ 7/1 will do for me.Happy
By:
elisjohn
When: 19 Aug 13 11:03
id have thought that Charlton would have a pace maker in, this is going to be very tactical, will trading leather dictate a slow pace upfront and kick 2 out,    cant see this race being run to suit ak at all
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 19 Aug 13 12:10
I like Trading Leather but will take another couple of looks at his Dante run before getting involved, that was probably his most disappointing performance of the season and it was over CD.
By:
brigust1
When: 19 Aug 13 12:54
If Trading Leather goes slow he will be playing into Toronado and DOW's hands. I think there will be a strong pace, maybe even Hillstar will make it but I don't think this will be tactical.
By:
EastLower Gooner
When: 19 Aug 13 14:41
Looks pretty straight forward for Al Kaz.....
By:
brigust1
When: 19 Aug 13 14:59
Head to head with you EG am I? Looks like I'm doomed.
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