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Can't see a thread on this cavalry charge so with the 5 day decs out later thought it was time to start one.
Have my eye on one at a big price (over 50 on here) but not sure of running plans yet.
Have my eye on one at a big price (over 50 on here) but not sure of running plans yet.
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Looks like Hallelujah has been taken out who I was looking at only yesterday.
Macs Power interesting off 95 given his form in big handicaps, not sure of his current well-being mind.
Burwaaz another outside to look at closely.
Macs Power interesting off 95 given his form in big handicaps, not sure of his current well-being mind.
Burwaaz another outside to look at closely.
Burwaaz was the one I was eyeing up Sint - 'great minds think alike' as they say.
However he has a couple of other entries this weekend so I won't play a/p until I know he's running.
However he has a couple of other entries this weekend so I won't play a/p until I know he's running.
Good course form from his 2yo days Uncle! Not sure he is a reliable beast though was swishing his tail lto.
Burwaaz
Only one win ever and I think the stable has d-icked around with him too much distance-wise.
It's the trickiest race of the year the night beforehand, never mind at the five-day stage but thought BACCARAT looked of interest after his run on Saturday, where he missed the break, got badly messed around due to Any Ryan's fall but still finished 6th.
Should get a run off 94? If not there's the consolation race earlier.
Only one win ever and I think the stable has d-icked around with him too much distance-wise.
It's the trickiest race of the year the night beforehand, never mind at the five-day stage but thought BACCARAT looked of interest after his run on Saturday, where he missed the break, got badly messed around due to Any Ryan's fall but still finished 6th.
Should get a run off 94? If not there's the consolation race earlier.
A couple interest me at big prices.
Pabusar has dropped some 13lb in the ratings and gave signs of a return to form last time out.
Free Zone has a couple of very good runs to his name and is another that has slipped in the ratings.50/1 looks too big.
Pabusar has dropped some 13lb in the ratings and gave signs of a return to form last time out.
Free Zone has a couple of very good runs to his name and is another that has slipped in the ratings.50/1 looks too big.
On the face of it York glory with just six more pounds to carry for the Ascot win has a good chance of following up , but may get held up in traffic this time . Shropshire is five pounds better in with York Glory and has R. More on board , I recall UnclePuncle has put this one up once or twice , but that has not influenced me in any way 
only an fool would consider the ideas of a rival Pundit !!
so to be clear York Glory to win , Shropshire second
only an fool would consider the ideas of a rival Pundit !! so to be clear York Glory to win , Shropshire second
I agree York Glory must have a good chance - as does Tropics
I did put up Shropshire for the Wokingham and the big 6f Handicap on 1,000 Guineas day
.
I just feel he has gone up in the weights for not winning and maybe now his chance has gone - will still have to have a small bet on him just in case (like with Loving Spirit last week).
.I just feel he has gone up in the weights for not winning and maybe now his chance has gone - will still have to have a small bet on him just in case (like with Loving Spirit last week).
if you didn't back York Glory at Royal Ascot when he was chucked in off 9lb lower then there's no way you should be backing him now at a shorter price with less chance.
I did back him and I say he will not win this race, there will be something with enough in hand
I did back him and I say he will not win this race, there will be something with enough in hand
no ran off 100 in the Wokingham, 109 in the Stewards, will need to run to 120 to win
I agree that Rex is a very decent price at 20/1 with Billies - just never been too sure about him in really big fields.
9lb higher mark, 7lb more weight on back. so not sure where mac got the 6.
judorick 01 Aug 13 15:07
no ran off 100 in the Wokingham, 109 in the Stewards, will need to run to 120 to win
How do you work that out ?
no ran off 100 in the Wokingham, 109 in the Stewards, will need to run to 120 to win
How do you work that out ?
because I make big money backing in these races and that's my estimate of what it would take to win
for instance Rex needs to run 114 but I think he can
for instance Rex needs to run 114 but I think he can
for instance, York Glory ran off 100 in the Wokingham but his winning effort was rated 114 by RPR and that is typical of horses winning big races like this
so I work on the basis that they will need to run 10lb above their BHA mark to win. I then decide whether I think they can or cannot do that to make a shortlist
my short list for this race is Rex Imperator and Racy
so I work on the basis that they will need to run 10lb above their BHA mark to win. I then decide whether I think they can or cannot do that to make a shortlist
my short list for this race is Rex Imperator and Racy
At his best Rex is in a class of his own , but his effort at Ascot against York Glory was woeful , did not look interested? .I guess the money on the day will speak for his chance gl
Alright Judge. I'm in the Rex Imperator camp as well. I backed him to win earlier in the week and will go in again each way tomorrow. Personally, i'm surprised he isn't favourite - travels well like a proper horse which is important for the Stewards Cup as tactical speed is often critical, classy sort, progressive form, looks all over a future group grade sprinter - the price of 20/1+ puts me off a little as i thought he would be 8/1.
will be in Group races later this year! They've done well to keep it quiet, although bet they are pissed he got put up 3lb for getting beat
off 101 he would have been royally chucked in like York Glory was at Ascot, 104 is a bit trickier he will need a good trip and splits to come when he needs them
all the best to your brother mate
off 101 he would have been royally chucked in like York Glory was at Ascot, 104 is a bit trickier he will need a good trip and splits to come when he needs them
all the best to your brother mate
Can't see that anyone has mentioned the winner yet??
DINKUM DIAMOND been a long time follower of this one. Connections always felt this was going to be a top draw sprinter but he never quite made it. I think one of the reasons is because they campaigned to often over 5f when he was crying out for 6f. Go back to his 3yo season and he began that with 2 very good 6f performances, first in a good listed race with the likes of society rock behind and then in the 2nd by the time he got a clear run Elzaam had flown. He was then dropped back to 5f for the rest of the season and did run some good races but didn't really hit the heights hoped for. Last season was in many ways disappointing but with the weather we had it was soft all year and he just didn't perform, the only time he really did get his ground he beat the useful yardstick Masamah. He has looked right back to his best form in his last 2 runs, i think the 6f here is ideal for him, and of the contenders from the wokingham he is the best off at the weights. I'm on at 20/1 but the 16/1 still widely available is great value.
DINKUM DIAMOND been a long time follower of this one. Connections always felt this was going to be a top draw sprinter but he never quite made it. I think one of the reasons is because they campaigned to often over 5f when he was crying out for 6f. Go back to his 3yo season and he began that with 2 very good 6f performances, first in a good listed race with the likes of society rock behind and then in the 2nd by the time he got a clear run Elzaam had flown. He was then dropped back to 5f for the rest of the season and did run some good races but didn't really hit the heights hoped for. Last season was in many ways disappointing but with the weather we had it was soft all year and he just didn't perform, the only time he really did get his ground he beat the useful yardstick Masamah. He has looked right back to his best form in his last 2 runs, i think the 6f here is ideal for him, and of the contenders from the wokingham he is the best off at the weights. I'm on at 20/1 but the 16/1 still widely available is great value.
Happybacker 01 Aug 13 22:20
Can't see that anyone has mentioned the winner yet??
I think the winner has been named tbf !
Can't see that anyone has mentioned the winner yet??
I think the winner has been named tbf !
Will pass it on Judge thanks. We are going to Goodwood tomorrow, shame we didn't pick a harder card! 
Ok thanks Judge will have a bit on. I'm not confident on anything really at Goodwood. I've had a bit on the Cox pair in the mile handicap, Dream Tune and Halfaguinea as think they are both overpriced despite their draws and will have a bit on Nargys in the fillies and mares race as my brother thinks she has a race in her. I like the Simcock horse Gucci D'oro in the first race at Musselburgh (of all courses), I backed him several times on the all weather and thought once he won he would win a few on the spin and he basically bolted up as he liked last time and should get a fair pace to track tomorrow and go in again (hopefully). Any way, good luck tomorrow
Hoof It - Fallon reunited in a Hcap.Could see this running a big race.
agreed Hoof It would have a big chance if back to his best. Also Heaven's Guest and Ninjago had their form boosted by Moviesta today. I think both have good chances.
interesting race , good writeup on Dinkum Diamond who ran so creditably at Ascot and what about Louis the Pious , if we get a drop of rain tomorrow morning , he will be right there ...but some might remember `Hoofit put up one of the best performances ever seen in this race when he won in 2011, if they have got him near his best the rest of the runners will be playing for minor places , always a great spectacle looking forward to it
Louis The Pious and Barnet Fair tentatively against the field for me, it's impossible, my head hurts now.
Barnet fair looked in top form lTO but just concerned that six furlongs stretches him , the rain has come which tempers my enthusiasm for York Glory but still in my short list
York Glory ( maybe goes best on firmish ground)
Louis The Pious ( race looks long term plan, rain that fell may help )
Rex imperator ( has to be in short list )
Hoof it ( Massive on 2011 form , but breathing op and connections quiet about his chance ?? )
Shropshire ( reliable sort with R Moore up and five pound turnaround with York Glory from last time )
was going to add a couple more , it is a Bookmakers benefit race with loads of possibilities even old Harrison George
might show up for a long way gl
York Glory ( maybe goes best on firmish ground)
Louis The Pious ( race looks long term plan, rain that fell may help )
Rex imperator ( has to be in short list )
Hoof it ( Massive on 2011 form , but breathing op and connections quiet about his chance ?? )
Shropshire ( reliable sort with R Moore up and five pound turnaround with York Glory from last time )
was going to add a couple more , it is a Bookmakers benefit race with loads of possibilities even old Harrison George
might show up for a long way gl
agree mac wide open, you could even make a case for the big outsider Polski Max if you excuse last 2 runs.
His penultimate run was run in driving rain and maybe the ground was loose on top, then last time perhaps ground was too quick as he couldn't get into it but his first 2 runs this season weren't bad (although he did get the run of the race at Ponty and had a nice draw against the rail at Hamilton).
A more likely one at a big price could be Burwaaz who was a useful 2yo and has dropped to 97. He's often looked like he's been keeping something to himself and blinkers could do the trick.
His penultimate run was run in driving rain and maybe the ground was loose on top, then last time perhaps ground was too quick as he couldn't get into it but his first 2 runs this season weren't bad (although he did get the run of the race at Ponty and had a nice draw against the rail at Hamilton).
A more likely one at a big price could be Burwaaz who was a useful 2yo and has dropped to 97. He's often looked like he's been keeping something to himself and blinkers could do the trick.
yes, Burwaaz from 109 down to 97 may be the best of the three year olds . Another horse for the extended short list is Dinkum Diamond who won the race he was in on the far side at Ascot, he is a serious player if the jockey can find a better route from the draw this time
juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuudoooooooooooooooo!!!
superb mate
superb mate
the winners looks group class if he gets that pace. He looked that impressive when he won at windsor last year.
hey you'll be getting a load more followers on twitter now judo
Facts, was not saying eff off to you on that 1000 horses dead thread, but to the OP 
Judorick , that was impressive , because you have done it before , well done , had to have a saver on and did , wish i had taken the twenty to one !!
cheers! it's no accident, I was studying this race for a month pretty much
shortlist given was Rex and Racy,1st and 4th
shortlist given was Rex and Racy,1st and 4th
Brilliant call JR. You sounded supremely confident, so I had a few quid on. Well done, hope you made plenty.
can't remember many people putting up grand national winner, wokingham winner and stewards cup winner plus plenty of others in difficult races
why are you not an expert on channel 4? i'm not even joking
why are you not an expert on channel 4? i'm not even joking
coz I win so much money I don't have to bother, and I'm not even joking. That's just how it is. Wokingham day was special as I had York Glory, Lethal Force and Opinion.
Anyway, the one to take out of the Stewards, other than the winner, was Ninjago. Will be a group horse for sure
Anyway, the one to take out of the Stewards, other than the winner, was Ninjago. Will be a group horse for sure
I 'll respond on this much more sensible forum !
As you've watched the replay of the race so many times - do you not think Tropics could have done better - or was it all a positioning/bad draw thing ?
As you've watched the replay of the race so many times - do you not think Tropics could have done better - or was it all a positioning/bad draw thing ?
Both Rex Imperator and Ajjaad raced in that smaller group towards stands side, I think that was an advantage. Tropics ran well from his position but I don't he has anything in hand of his mark now. Ninjago was the most eyecatching from the back but they pointed that out on channel when reviewing race so might be overbet next time as will be in a lot of people's notebooks.
with Ninjago I am thinking more long term, like what level he will reach when he's fully mature as a 4 or 5 year old, I probably won't be interested in him this year.
If you have followed me on the flat this year you will know I focus on the 4 and 5 year olds and he will go in my notebook for next year
Tropics off 106 was badly weighted and over raced, if they wanted to do better here they should have skipped the SkyBet Dash. As it turned out the far side was a disadvantage so Ninjago did well for a youngster to get so close after racing that side.
Not much else to take out. Winner awarded 115 on my initial post race handicapping (gave 9lb and 3.25 length beating to 95 rated Racy, who I had rated 105 pre race, knocked down to 100 because of track bias = 115 conservatively)
If you have followed me on the flat this year you will know I focus on the 4 and 5 year olds and he will go in my notebook for next year
Tropics off 106 was badly weighted and over raced, if they wanted to do better here they should have skipped the SkyBet Dash. As it turned out the far side was a disadvantage so Ninjago did well for a youngster to get so close after racing that side.
Not much else to take out. Winner awarded 115 on my initial post race handicapping (gave 9lb and 3.25 length beating to 95 rated Racy, who I had rated 105 pre race, knocked down to 100 because of track bias = 115 conservatively)
you think Racy could go well in something like the portland judo?
nope, strike him from consideration, 6 years old never won a handicap, probably never will. In fact, if they are 5 and never won one, assuming they didn't start late like Tropics
sorry, to be clear, probably run well but not win. See what Imean?
sorry, to be clear, probably run well but not win. See what Imean?
aye, I suppose he'll go to york for that 5 1/2f hcap first, Ellison is a good trainer but can't see him getting much more improvement out of it but can see him finishing in the places though.
judo i know your a follower of Lethal Force, do you think connections are wise to run him on soft tomorrow against Moonlight Cloud?? Surely the going in France will be in the mares favour.
Another one Judo well done mate was on at 20s and 18s,you are on a roll matey well done, cant wait for proper jumps again!
cheers mate! me too, although winning bundles this flat season it's not like a Hennessey, Paddy Power, King George, Cheltenham etc weekend
just got back from a great day at the Test Match, well done Judo, not just tipping the winner but thoughts on York Glory and the reasoning,mate.
you deserve it 'cos it's obvious you work hard at it.
you deserve it 'cos it's obvious you work hard at it.
Agree but if you can win money on flat you are good mate keep it going!
will do fellas, will post the results of my work
already eyes on the Ebor
already eyes on the Ebor
kabooooom is right judooo. read this thread during the week and backed rex+racy made nice profit mate just want to say thanks.great work u cant win them all but u certainly did on stewards 2013. keep ud the good work. are u more a jumps fan or does it matter?
glad I could help
I would say I am 'fan' of National Hunt racing and I do very well punting on the top class jumps action at the big meetings and chases in particular from the PP meeting at Cheltenham through to Whitbread Gold Cup day. Cheltenham Festival and Grand National meeting the most important two weeks of the year punting wise and the most exciting and enjoyable for me
I'm not really a 'fan' of flat racing at all. There are certain meetings I enjoy but really I just specialise in the top class Handicaps and big festivals as a punter and I do very well indeed from them. I don't do the day to day grind at all on the flat.
I would say I am 'fan' of National Hunt racing and I do very well punting on the top class jumps action at the big meetings and chases in particular from the PP meeting at Cheltenham through to Whitbread Gold Cup day. Cheltenham Festival and Grand National meeting the most important two weeks of the year punting wise and the most exciting and enjoyable for me
I'm not really a 'fan' of flat racing at all. There are certain meetings I enjoy but really I just specialise in the top class Handicaps and big festivals as a punter and I do very well indeed from them. I don't do the day to day grind at all on the flat.
Well done Judo, excellent write up, easy win. Couldn't ask for more.
Excellent Judo! Can I ask what race/races specifically suggested to you he could run 10lb higher? I feel an insight could help my own methods of form study if you care to share?
3 races
firstly when he bolted up at Windsor as a 3 year old, looked a very smart sort
secondly running second over 7 furlongs, beaten a length by Diescentric when giving him 9lbs - Diescentric now rated 106, Rex 104
thirdly running second to Tropics at Windsor giving him 7lbs, Tropics then went on to win the Sky Bet dash off 6lb higher, Rex was 9lb better off for a length
Combine this with running in the first 6 in the Wokingham (a key stat), his age, trainer record in the Stewards Cup (1-1-3),add in entries in 2x Gr2 and 1x Gr1 races later this year and...
it all made sense to me, does that help?
check it out
firstly when he bolted up at Windsor as a 3 year old, looked a very smart sort
secondly running second over 7 furlongs, beaten a length by Diescentric when giving him 9lbs - Diescentric now rated 106, Rex 104
thirdly running second to Tropics at Windsor giving him 7lbs, Tropics then went on to win the Sky Bet dash off 6lb higher, Rex was 9lb better off for a length
Combine this with running in the first 6 in the Wokingham (a key stat), his age, trainer record in the Stewards Cup (1-1-3),add in entries in 2x Gr2 and 1x Gr1 races later this year and...
it all made sense to me, does that help?
check it out
Yes, thank you very much. Just looking now and the his run behind Fulbright worked out well too, especially since he pulled hard.
Do you keep your own stats or can you find them somewhere? Trainer record in the race for example. That's an area I often overlook.
Do you keep your own stats or can you find them somewhere? Trainer record in the race for example. That's an area I often overlook.
I don't keep records myself on trainer stats but I use Racecaller.com forum and I have a squad of helpers on my mailing list who I give research tasks to, sometimes get stuff from olbg.co.uk forum
judorick 03 Aug 13 23:04
will do fellas, will post the results of my work
already eyes on the Ebor
Was on Opinion immediately following his run in The Old Newton Cup
will do fellas, will post the results of my work
already eyes on the Ebor
Was on Opinion immediately following his run in The Old Newton Cup
Thx for response. Will keep those sites in mind when trying to improve my own punting. I guess as with anything you get out what you put into it.
judorick 03 Aug 13 17:40 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 17,284 | Blogger: judorick's blog
Not much else to take out. Winner awarded 115 on my initial post race handicapping (gave 9lb and 3.25 length beating to 95 rated Racy, who I had rated 105 pre race, knocked down to 100 because of track bias = 115 conservatively)
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Racing Post Ratings awarded Rex Imperator 116 and Racy 97
I had it 115 and 100,so they rated him 4lb more superior than I did
Not much else to take out. Winner awarded 115 on my initial post race handicapping (gave 9lb and 3.25 length beating to 95 rated Racy, who I had rated 105 pre race, knocked down to 100 because of track bias = 115 conservatively)
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Racing Post Ratings awarded Rex Imperator 116 and Racy 97
I had it 115 and 100,so they rated him 4lb more superior than I did
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