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Trends for the past 10 runnings of the Summer Plate at Market Rasen on Saturday (http://tinyurl.com/nw7yfbn) below:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-4
6yo: 1-3-18
7yo: 3-5-37
8yo: 1-8-29
9yo: 2-6-33
10yo: 2-2-20
11yo+: 1-1-12
The ages of winners has been fairly evenly spread out. No strong trends here.
Breeding
Irish bred: 7-15-77
French bred: 3-5-37
GB bred: 0-5-28
USA bred: 0-1-6
Other: 0-0-5
10 of 10 winners were Irish or French bred.
3 of the 4 French bred winners since 2000 came from the Pipe stable.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-7 or more: 0-11-33
Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 3-3-31
Horses carrying 10-7 to 10-13: 6-6-48
Horses carrying 10-6 or less: 1-6-41
Top Weights: 272322PP543P0 (0-7-13)
7 of the 13 top weights have been placed but no winner has managed to carry more than 11-5 to victory since 2000.
9 of 10 winners carried between 10-7 and 11-5.
Horses carrying a penalty (1-1-3) have gained a win and a place from 3 runners.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 138 or higher: 1-7-28
Horses rated 127 to 137: 8-15-86
Horses rated 126 or lower: 1-4-39
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 127 to 137
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start
7 of 10 winners won last time out
6 of 10 winners ran at Stratford or Ffos Las last time
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 130+ in 1 or both of last 2 runs
9 of 10 winners had won a chase since 1st April (exception 2nd in class 2 handicap chase on only start since 1st April)
8 of 10 winners had run in 9 to 19 chases in Great Britain (2 exceptions were novices who had run in 5 chases and won last 2)
8 of 10 winners had run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (2 exceptions had run in 13 & 14)
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 5F or further
9 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 chase in Great Britain but no higher (exception had won a class 4 but placed in listed handicap chase)
0 of 10 winners had won a NH race in Great Britain worth more than £13,000
Other Races
Highest placed finisher from 32Red Handicap Chase here in Sept: 1185813 (3-1-7) - Bobowen was 2nd in the race
Sheppard Family Handicap Chase winner (Finger Onthe Pulse): 2 (0-1-1)
Perth Gold Cup winner (Problema Tic): 82P (0-1-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in 32Red Handicap Chase here in Sept, finishing 263
2 of 10 winners ran in Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase, finishing 45
2 of last 4 winners won a class 3 Ffos Las handicap chase last time
2 of 2 novice winners won a class 3 Stratford novice chase last time
Racing Tactics
2 of 10 winners made all
5 of 10 winners tracked leaders
3 of 10 winners were held up
Trainers
Peter Bowen (4-4-23) has trained 4 winners in the past 10 years and he also saddled the close 2nd last year.
David Pipe (1-2-7) has gained 1 win and 2 places from 7 runners since 2003. His father also had a strong record in the race (won it in 2005 & 2005).
Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-9) won this in 2009 and Lawney Hill (1-0-1) trained last year’s winner.
Evan Williams (0-3-7) and Paul Nicholls (0-2-9) have both saddled multiple placed finishers.
Price
No strong trends on the prices, with 7 of 10 winners going off between 3/1 & 9/1 while the other 3 winners were sent off between 16/1 & 25/1.
Favourites (3-3-12) have won 3 of the last 10, showing a level stakes profit of 1.75.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Irish or French bred
· Carrying 11-5 or less
· Horses carrying a penalty do well
· Officially rated 127 to 137
· Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)
· Posted an RPR of 130+ in 1 or both of last 2 chase starts
· Has won over fences since 1st April
· Has run 9 to 19 times over fences in Great Britain
· Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
· Won over 2M 6F+
· Won a class 2 or 3 chase in Britain (but no higher)
· Finished in first 5 in Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase in October
· Previously finished in first 6 in 32Red Handicap Chase here in September
· Trained by Peter Bowen, Evan Williams or David Pipe
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-4
6yo: 1-3-18
7yo: 3-5-37
8yo: 1-8-29
9yo: 2-6-33
10yo: 2-2-20
11yo+: 1-1-12
The ages of winners has been fairly evenly spread out. No strong trends here.
Breeding
Irish bred: 7-15-77
French bred: 3-5-37
GB bred: 0-5-28
USA bred: 0-1-6
Other: 0-0-5
10 of 10 winners were Irish or French bred.
3 of the 4 French bred winners since 2000 came from the Pipe stable.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-7 or more: 0-11-33
Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 3-3-31
Horses carrying 10-7 to 10-13: 6-6-48
Horses carrying 10-6 or less: 1-6-41
Top Weights: 272322PP543P0 (0-7-13)
7 of the 13 top weights have been placed but no winner has managed to carry more than 11-5 to victory since 2000.
9 of 10 winners carried between 10-7 and 11-5.
Horses carrying a penalty (1-1-3) have gained a win and a place from 3 runners.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 138 or higher: 1-7-28
Horses rated 127 to 137: 8-15-86
Horses rated 126 or lower: 1-4-39
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 127 to 137
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start
7 of 10 winners won last time out
6 of 10 winners ran at Stratford or Ffos Las last time
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 130+ in 1 or both of last 2 runs
9 of 10 winners had won a chase since 1st April (exception 2nd in class 2 handicap chase on only start since 1st April)
8 of 10 winners had run in 9 to 19 chases in Great Britain (2 exceptions were novices who had run in 5 chases and won last 2)
8 of 10 winners had run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (2 exceptions had run in 13 & 14)
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 5F or further
9 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 chase in Great Britain but no higher (exception had won a class 4 but placed in listed handicap chase)
0 of 10 winners had won a NH race in Great Britain worth more than £13,000
Other Races
Highest placed finisher from 32Red Handicap Chase here in Sept: 1185813 (3-1-7) - Bobowen was 2nd in the race
Sheppard Family Handicap Chase winner (Finger Onthe Pulse): 2 (0-1-1)
Perth Gold Cup winner (Problema Tic): 82P (0-1-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in 32Red Handicap Chase here in Sept, finishing 263
2 of 10 winners ran in Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase, finishing 45
2 of last 4 winners won a class 3 Ffos Las handicap chase last time
2 of 2 novice winners won a class 3 Stratford novice chase last time
Racing Tactics
2 of 10 winners made all
5 of 10 winners tracked leaders
3 of 10 winners were held up
Trainers
Peter Bowen (4-4-23) has trained 4 winners in the past 10 years and he also saddled the close 2nd last year.
David Pipe (1-2-7) has gained 1 win and 2 places from 7 runners since 2003. His father also had a strong record in the race (won it in 2005 & 2005).
Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-9) won this in 2009 and Lawney Hill (1-0-1) trained last year’s winner.
Evan Williams (0-3-7) and Paul Nicholls (0-2-9) have both saddled multiple placed finishers.
Price
No strong trends on the prices, with 7 of 10 winners going off between 3/1 & 9/1 while the other 3 winners were sent off between 16/1 & 25/1.
Favourites (3-3-12) have won 3 of the last 10, showing a level stakes profit of 1.75.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Irish or French bred
· Carrying 11-5 or less
· Horses carrying a penalty do well
· Officially rated 127 to 137
· Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)
· Posted an RPR of 130+ in 1 or both of last 2 chase starts
· Has won over fences since 1st April
· Has run 9 to 19 times over fences in Great Britain
· Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
· Won over 2M 6F+
· Won a class 2 or 3 chase in Britain (but no higher)
· Finished in first 5 in Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase in October
· Previously finished in first 6 in 32Red Handicap Chase here in September
· Trained by Peter Bowen, Evan Williams or David Pipe
Show More
thanks I don't normally like betting horses raised 12lb for their last victory but paddy the hare broke the course record and looks a horse on the up his stablemate pineau de re went off fav at uttoxeter and ran very well from the front his first race for the yard if he needed that he could be the danger dropped 2lb
1 7/3-22 Woolcombe Folly62 10 11-12 Paul Nicholls33 Harry Derham5 153 152 160
2 6251-1 Bocciani71 p 8 11-2 Brian Ellison Aidan Coleman 143 151 155
3 611P5- Viva Colonia5F 8 10-13 Brian Ellison Noel Fehily 140 149 158
4 F-0510 Problema Tic20 tb 7 10-12 David Pipe67 Tom Scudamore 139 125 158
5 1621-6 Pineau De Re20 10 10-10 Dr Richard Newland67 Richard Johnson 137 121 168
6 43-232 Buck Mulligan41 8 10-8 Evan Williams47 Adam Wedge3 135 149 159
7 11F4- Royale´s Charter205 7 10-8 Nick Williams Nick Scholfield 135 125 160
8 1-31U3 Gentleman Anshan13 9 10-7 Rosemary Gasson100 Ben Poste5 134 150 158
9 2PF0-4 Galaxy Rock20 b 9 10-6 Jonjo O´Neill50 A P McCoy 133 145 166
10 P10-F7 Bobowen17 7 10-6 Dr Richard Newland67 Sam Twiston-Davies 133 138 162
11 32-311 Paddy The Hare13 p 8 10-5 Dr Richard Newland67 Tom O'Brien 132 113 158
12 30-081 Finger Onthe Pulse18 t 12 10-4 Jonjo O´Neill50 Maurice Linehan5 131 148 158
13 7-1611 Dineur6 5x 7 10-3 Peter Bowen33 Donal Devereux 130 137 158
14 3FF1-2 King´s Legacy75P 9 10-2 Lawney Hill David Bass 129 — —
15 480-34 Donnas Palm30 b 9 10-1 Tim Vaughan67 Michael Byrne3 128 148 160
16 928-14 Grey Soldier27 t 8 10-0 Sophie Leech100 James Best3 125 115 145
2 6251-1 Bocciani71 p 8 11-2 Brian Ellison Aidan Coleman 143 151 155
3 611P5- Viva Colonia5F 8 10-13 Brian Ellison Noel Fehily 140 149 158
4 F-0510 Problema Tic20 tb 7 10-12 David Pipe67 Tom Scudamore 139 125 158
5 1621-6 Pineau De Re20 10 10-10 Dr Richard Newland67 Richard Johnson 137 121 168
6 43-232 Buck Mulligan41 8 10-8 Evan Williams47 Adam Wedge3 135 149 159
7 11F4- Royale´s Charter205 7 10-8 Nick Williams Nick Scholfield 135 125 160
8 1-31U3 Gentleman Anshan13 9 10-7 Rosemary Gasson100 Ben Poste5 134 150 158
9 2PF0-4 Galaxy Rock20 b 9 10-6 Jonjo O´Neill50 A P McCoy 133 145 166
10 P10-F7 Bobowen17 7 10-6 Dr Richard Newland67 Sam Twiston-Davies 133 138 162
11 32-311 Paddy The Hare13 p 8 10-5 Dr Richard Newland67 Tom O'Brien 132 113 158
12 30-081 Finger Onthe Pulse18 t 12 10-4 Jonjo O´Neill50 Maurice Linehan5 131 148 158
13 7-1611 Dineur6 5x 7 10-3 Peter Bowen33 Donal Devereux 130 137 158
14 3FF1-2 King´s Legacy75P 9 10-2 Lawney Hill David Bass 129 — —
15 480-34 Donnas Palm30 b 9 10-1 Tim Vaughan67 Michael Byrne3 128 148 160
16 928-14 Grey Soldier27 t 8 10-0 Sophie Leech100 James Best3 125 115 145
DINEUR for me.Top of his game - and Trainer could win with the stable cat at the moment !
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