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Racecaller08
17 Jul 13 15:07
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Date Joined: 15 Feb 08
| Topic/replies: 73 | Blogger: Racecaller08's blog
Trends for the past 10 runnings of the Summer Plate at Market Rasen on Saturday (http://tinyurl.com/nw7yfbn) below:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-4
6yo: 1-3-18
7yo: 3-5-37
8yo: 1-8-29
9yo: 2-6-33
10yo: 2-2-20
11yo+: 1-1-12
The ages of winners has been fairly evenly spread out. No strong trends here.

Breeding
Irish bred: 7-15-77
French bred: 3-5-37
GB bred: 0-5-28
USA bred: 0-1-6
Other: 0-0-5
10 of 10 winners were Irish or French bred.
3 of the 4 French bred winners since 2000 came from the Pipe stable.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-7 or more: 0-11-33
Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 3-3-31
Horses carrying 10-7 to 10-13: 6-6-48
Horses carrying 10-6 or less: 1-6-41
Top Weights: 272322PP543P0 (0-7-13)
7 of the 13 top weights have been placed but no winner has managed to carry more than 11-5 to victory since 2000.
9 of 10 winners carried between 10-7 and 11-5.
Horses carrying a penalty (1-1-3) have gained a win and a place from 3 runners.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 138 or higher: 1-7-28
Horses rated 127 to 137: 8-15-86
Horses rated 126 or lower: 1-4-39
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 127 to 137

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start
7 of 10 winners won last time out
6 of 10 winners ran at Stratford or Ffos Las last time
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 130+ in 1 or both of last 2 runs
9 of 10 winners had won a chase since 1st April (exception 2nd in class 2 handicap chase on only start since 1st April)
8 of 10 winners had run in 9 to 19 chases in Great Britain (2 exceptions were novices who had run in 5 chases and won last 2)
8 of 10 winners had run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (2 exceptions had run in 13 & 14)
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 5F or further
9 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 chase in Great Britain but no higher (exception had won a class 4 but placed in listed handicap chase)
0 of 10 winners had won a NH race in Great Britain worth more than £13,000

Other Races
Highest placed finisher from 32Red Handicap Chase here in Sept: 1185813 (3-1-7) - Bobowen was 2nd in the race
Sheppard Family Handicap Chase winner (Finger Onthe Pulse): 2 (0-1-1)
Perth Gold Cup winner (Problema Tic): 82P (0-1-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in 32Red Handicap Chase here in Sept, finishing 263
2 of 10 winners ran in Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase, finishing 45
2 of last 4 winners won a class 3 Ffos Las handicap chase last time
2 of 2 novice winners won a class 3 Stratford novice chase last time

Racing Tactics
2 of 10 winners made all
5 of 10 winners tracked leaders
3 of 10 winners were held up

Trainers
Peter Bowen (4-4-23) has trained 4 winners in the past 10 years and he also saddled the close 2nd last year.
David Pipe (1-2-7) has gained 1 win and 2 places from 7 runners since 2003. His father also had a strong record in the race (won it in 2005 & 2005).
Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-9) won this in 2009 and Lawney Hill (1-0-1) trained last year’s winner.
Evan Williams (0-3-7) and Paul Nicholls (0-2-9) have both saddled multiple placed finishers.

Price
No strong trends on the prices, with 7 of 10 winners going off between 3/1 & 9/1 while the other 3 winners were sent off between 16/1 & 25/1.   
Favourites (3-3-12) have won 3 of the last 10, showing a level stakes profit of 1.75.

Summary:           
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Irish or French bred
·         Carrying 11-5 or less
·         Horses carrying a penalty do well
·         Officially rated 127 to 137
·         Finished in first 3 last time out  (ideally won)
·         Posted an RPR of 130+ in 1 or both of last 2 chase starts
·         Has won over fences since 1st April
·         Has run 9 to 19 times over fences in Great Britain
·         Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
·         Won over 2M 6F+
·         Won a class 2 or 3 chase in Britain (but no higher)
·         Finished in first 5 in Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase in October
·         Previously finished in first 6 in 32Red Handicap Chase here in September
·         Trained by Peter Bowen, Evan Williams or David Pipe

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Replies: 6
By:
boy wonder 07
When: 19 Jul 13 11:09
thanks I don't normally like betting horses raised 12lb for their last victory but paddy the hare broke the course record and looks a horse on the up his stablemate pineau de re went off fav at uttoxeter and ran very well from the front his first race for the yard if he needed that he could be the danger dropped 2lb
By:
BJG
When: 19 Jul 13 11:33
1     7/3-22    Woolcombe Folly62    10    11-12    Paul Nicholls33    Harry Derham5     153    152    160
2     6251-1    Bocciani71 p      8    11-2    Brian Ellison    Aidan Coleman     143    151    155
3     611P5-    Viva Colonia5F      8    10-13    Brian Ellison    Noel Fehily     140    149    158
4     F-0510    Problema Tic20 tb      7    10-12    David Pipe67    Tom Scudamore     139    125    158
5     1621-6    Pineau De Re20      10    10-10    Dr Richard Newland67    Richard Johnson     137    121    168
6     43-232    Buck Mulligan41      8    10-8    Evan Williams47    Adam Wedge3     135    149    159
7     11F4-    Royale´s Charter205      7    10-8    Nick Williams    Nick Scholfield     135    125    160
8     1-31U3    Gentleman Anshan13    9    10-7    Rosemary Gasson100    Ben Poste5     134    150    158
9     2PF0-4    Galaxy Rock20 b      9    10-6    Jonjo O´Neill50    A P McCoy     133    145    166
10     P10-F7    Bobowen17      7    10-6    Dr Richard Newland67    Sam Twiston-Davies     133    138    162
11     32-311    Paddy The Hare13 p      8    10-5    Dr Richard Newland67    Tom O'Brien     132    113    158
12    30-081    Finger Onthe Pulse18 t      12    10-4    Jonjo O´Neill50    Maurice Linehan5     131    148    158
13     7-1611    Dineur6 5x    7    10-3    Peter Bowen33    Donal Devereux     130    137    158
14     3FF1-2    King´s Legacy75P      9    10-2    Lawney Hill    David Bass     129    —    —
15     480-34    Donnas Palm30 b    9    10-1    Tim Vaughan67    Michael Byrne3     128    148    160
16     928-14    Grey Soldier27 t    8    10-0    Sophie Leech100    James Best3     125    115    145
By:
Facts
When: 19 Jul 13 19:35
DINEUR for me.Top of his game - and Trainer could win with the stable cat at the moment !
By:
boy wonder 07
When: 19 Jul 13 21:36
wont get home
By:
sintonian
When: 19 Jul 13 22:54
Paddy The Hare for me too.
By:
Facts
When: 20 Jul 13 15:04
boy wonder 07     19 Jul 13 22:36 
wont get home




tbf - got home better than PTH !
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