EBOR - York 24th August

yup ante post market suspended, waiting on the entries (not declarations) to be posted at todays forfeit stage

be able to get stuck in after

Did anyone else read that TOMINATOR had picked up an injury and would not race again THIS YEAR or did I imagine it?

opinion tipped up in rfo.

bazzar     06 Aug 13 16:28 
Did anyone else read that TOMINATOR had picked up an injury and would not race again THIS YEAR or did I imagine it?

Jonjo O'Neill's dual Northumberland Plate winner Tominator will miss the Betfred Ebor and faces a lengthy spell on the sidelines.

The popular grey got up in the final strides a Newcastle a few weeks ago to provide O'Neill and former jump jockey Graham Lee with a major success on the level. However, he will now miss the rest of the Flat season and will not be going jumping in the winter either.

"He's out for the season unfortunately," said O'Neill.

"It's a ligament injury he picked up at Newcastle.

"We'll leave him off for as long as he needs now, he's only six, so we'll give him all the help he needs.

"He won't be going jumping, that's for sure."

Tominator was around a 20-1 chance for the Ebor at York next month.

so RFO tips the ante post fav who:
1. runs off a mark higher than any horse horse has won off for donkey's
2. to carry a weight 5lbs higher than any has won carrying for at least
3. comes from a stable yet to win the race

seriously, professional journalists tipping this?

Thanks BJG, can't understand why he is still in the race and there has been an acceptance stage today for the EBOR.

judorick     06 Aug 13 18:35 
so RFO tips the ante post fav who:
1. runs off a mark higher than any horse horse has won off for donkey's
2. to carry a weight 5lbs higher than any has won carrying for at least
3. comes from a stable yet to win the race

seriously, professional journalists tipping this?




Stoute has won this race three times.
This 'pro'has backed it !

Some professional journos and punters don't use stats and trends judo and there are plenty of other reasons for fancying the horse. I've yet to back it myself though as I prefer to wait til nearer the day.

not got involved yet,but would have to look at Opinion(bit put off by price and would hang on till day)Not a 'stats' man myself but respect others who use them,but surely he is capable of winning off a mark of 103(looked slightly unlucky off that mark at haydock)Pondering wether to give  Caravan Rolls On another chance,if the going remains on top.

good luck what ever you do

Positive there s a big one in Caravan Rolls on but startin to become a little frustrating and his mark has gone up 6lbs without winning!

spot on BJG

That said its quite possible a higher mark than normal will b required to even get in here? Has the makings of a decent looking race thus far

My memory includes SEA PIGEON who won with a high weight and a mare trained by VINCENT O'BRIEN carried top weight and won by 12 lengths.

no-one give stencive a chance ?

Dont think there will EVER be a easier winner of the race than "The Captain's" Sir Montagu

Think GLADRAGS was a VERY easy winner.

SONGCRAFT seems rather large.......

Slight blip in the memory box the mare was GLADNESS who won the EBOR with top weight by 12 lengths, trained by VINCENT O'BRIEN.

Mr M Mackem

Stencive (given decent luck in running) is home and hosed imo. Two major provisos though - he needs to run, and he needs to stay well enough. No doubt at all that he is exceptionally well handicapped. There is a chance he could win the Ebor by quite a decent margin as he outclasses this field.

Weather forecast set fair and fairly hot for next week so definitely going to be on the quick side.

stenscive caught my eye too in this-haggas was gutted in the interview after his last race even tho they won it with his stable companion you could see they thought this was the1. whats your view on him judo??how does he fit into or not fit in your stats trends etc?

like yourself,spothediference,i'm looking for judorick's next post on this.His record this past summer has been spot on in these races.I've already backed Opinion in this and I know judo's not so keen on him here.Quite like to know his thoughts for backup.

Stencive is out and misses the rest of the season

Shame classy handicapper/ group horse. Would not have been sure about the trip for him tho.

not looked at race properly yet, but can't get Harris Tweed's last run out of my head, this will be immeasurably tougher but...

What time is next declaration stage?

Market Suspensions:
12pm, 19th August - Confirmation Of Entry Stage

Sorry. Missed the bit after that...

This market will close at 10am on the 22nd August. A day of the race market will be available shortly after.

Sadly not going to make the trip down to York this year Too many things on at home atm & cancelled my booking on Fri
The weather looks gd for the wk (dry & sunny) Enjoy the 4days lads if your going.
Took a small interest on here about Handsome Man last wk in the hope of fast ground (he wants it quick imo) small interest at 50s, Opinion would be my other 1 on a very short list, wont play on him till sat morn tho, would expect him to be the same price he is atm if not bigger.

What's the maximum runners? Looking at Sir Mark's Pallasator but it's number 40 so will need a few to come out, but just how many?

think it's 20.not sure though

Sorry, I was looking at them alphabetically. DOH

20 runners for the Ebor. Not sure he will line-up on fast going willie?

I really fancied Genzy at a big price (33/1+) after his run behind Bishop Roko and was gutted they chose to run him on Saturday at Newbury - ran pretty well too and would have been a player in the Ebor.

Any news as regards Saturday acceptors?

53 still in and only 20 can go. Is that correct? 20 doesn't sound a lot.

But I don't doubt youse. Were there many balloted horses last year?

20 is max Pete. Only 19 ran last year.

Bishop Roko for me could be big improver hopefully,slight worry entered Friday this was supposed to be target maybe why still such a big price?

Just waiting on the draw but my short list for this is now down to:

NO HERETIC
CARAVAN ROLLS ON

Have taken 20s and 14s

I think it's likely to be just the one bet for me and that's No Heretic

I know he can be a lazy bugger but this looks just the type of race in which Tropical Beat can outrun his odds of 25/1. The likely strong gallop should help him settle - a nice pipeopener at Muss of late ( form boosted today ) - course form when a good 3rd last year - ground no issue - hopefully Tudhope will deliver him on cue!!

anyone get the draw?

the draw is up on the cards on sporting life site

judo

NO HERETIC drawn 15
CARAVAN ROLLS ON drawn 12

ta

maximum ew bet NO HERETIC

I've gone max EW Caravan Rolls On so hopefully one of us will get it right. Good luck.

I've had a saver last week on the Caravan, 2 points at 14s when I posted the short list

GL mate

backed Steps To Freedom at 25/1. 6lb lower than 3.5 length defeat last year.

sint - makes sense. I have backed that horse over fences, over hurdles and over a cliff. The time has come to stop my obsession.............watch it sluice up ! Good luck.

8st 8lbs or under is the only stat I look for in this race, been a real money-spinner. Just the 2 this year.
Hanoverian Baron, already done this one on here ante-post, though I'm worried this maybe too far. He was unlucky last time, didn't get a run when going well.
No Heretic, Darren Egan's claim makes him the other one and looks the more likely winner.

Hanoverian down to run tomorrow 1.55, bit puzzling.

Bit worrying

Highland Castle will do for me. Fits all the trends available at 38.

I only got 9 quid on at 157, souldancer, but thought it would run Friday and sold it at 70 last night. If they pull it out tomorrow I'll be wishing I'd kept it.

Would have been having a good bet on Genzy if he hadn't run last week - can't understand why they did it. Rain is forecast as well which will suit him.

Would also have fancied Ted Veale but for some reason he had a run yesterday which surely can't be ideal.

Ted Veale's connections probably thought he needed a penalty to get in. As it turns out he didn't and it's a positive for me that they were so desperate to get in.

presumably they declared Hanoverian Baron for tomorrow in case he did n't get in the Ebor?

I expect he'll be a non runner in the morning.

they might as well run on friday coz he's got norfolk and chance in this

Can I ask for opinions on these three please

Bishop Roko
Genzy
Tropical Beat

high probability of rain coming in tomorrow night and Saturday morning according to metcheck.

...just saying

not had a bet in this yet so it makes sense to wait now.

The one thing I didn't want of No Heretic was rain, hopefully won't be too much though, I see turnip says its just started raining after they watered this evening

yep, just saw that myself - will take it as a cue to stop studying tomorrow's card and wait until the morning.

Guarantee  is  in the picture if it rains enough ,  he was a very  good winner of the Melrose  last year , he has not performed so well  so far this  year  but i guess this is the race they want to win with him

Yes he has a chance mac, he didn't want to know earlier in the season but they gelded him and his 2 runs since have been a bit better and the rain and cheek pieces will help. Obviously Opinion will like the ground but the price is already short enough on that one

I meant to say the cheek pieces might help

Of course No Heretic might be ok on the ground, he did flop in his one soft ground run but he did take a keen hold that day and was also reported to have banged himself.

But I do think he is a fast ground horse really. Still that's the chance you take ante post

Hanoverian Baron non-runner today. Well he's gotta better chance than my usual ante-post,they usually don't make the race. Think the rain will help.

I've ended up with 1100/5, souldancer, would rather he'd run today at 16/1 though. Also like Genzy, but as unclepuncle mentioned  the run last week will be hard to overcome. GL all.

very boring here think Opinion is neigh on bet to nothing e/w,while i will be having a pop at Saptapadi at big prices (e/w)

steps of freedom out

saddo, that beats me, I left it till I seen the claimer for the weight,69.0 my average.

Murphy a major negative imo, had Beasley booked for today.

Purely on form Tiger Cliff is going to be hard to beat. Typical Cecil improver, have to bet this one too. Bit of a disaster, don't like betting 3 usually means I'm wrong.

bishop roko and genzy for me

With more rain forecast later 2day its time for a re-think (if it does) My main hope wont mind some cut in the ground (Opinion) but my small interest on Handsome Man (wants fast ground) looks done for. Hopefully no more rain hits the track & a few ££ on Opinion will do for me 2moro.

I wouldn't give up on Handsome Man, he does have some softer ground form including a Royal Ascot 2nd last year. He's a big price so there's bound to be some doubts. Not convinced his Northumberland Plate blowout was just a ground thing, nobody seemed bothered about the ground when they made him joint favourite. Too big a price to let him run loose now.

The ground was not soft today at all! Just hoping the rain stays away but we'll see.

Happy with my bet on Bishop Roko now rain has come and more to come very likely, but not for my saver Handsome Man but price 50s on here needs it quick?

A back to form Guarantee would be of interest at around 20s. Very impressive winner here last year in the Melrose. Winning form at York on easy ground is a plus & has showed signs of a return to form lately. Worth a bit of ew interest at the prices.

No Melrose winner gone on to win Ebor (last 30 yrs) but agree he has a chance on run behind stable mate Sun Central.

Opinion.
Very few (6 in 30 yrs) Ebor winners won a B hcp or higher in current year and the only 4yo to overcome the stat was Purple Moon who won a listed hcp

Beltin it down

Tropical Beat for me.

saptapadi at 45/1 looks overpriced,think i will vote tory after it weighs-in

Going to go with Blue Surf in the conditions.

No Heretic is out

and tropical beat figgis

Oh right, wasn't a big bet for me anyway, no bet then.

backed saptapadi at 40s 3 days ago, im bound to now get a ridiculous rule 4 even though you cant still get 33s.

Just hoping Saptapadi can emulate Moyenne Corniches win in this race in 2011.

Still think the price is far too big at 33/1 for, and 8/1 to place.

fingers crossed

I am not betting on this.
These I do not like:
Sheikhzayedroad; Opinion; Bishop Roko; Satapadi; Hanoverian Baron.

anyone like caravan horse here...I do

wd souldancer, and bad luck saddo thought he had it

WD, souldancer, laid off Genzy at 1.7 but only for steak back .

I am not betting on this.
These I do not like:
Sheikhzayedroad; Opinion; Bishop Roko; Satapadi; Hanoverian Baron.

How did I do it?
Sheikhzayedroad (9th); Opinion (10th); Bishop Roko (13th); Satapadi (8th); Hanoverian Baron (12th).

but only for steak back

Rump? Sirloin?

unclepuncle
19 Aug 13 11:39

I really fancied Genzy at a big price (33/1+) after his run behind Bishop Roko and was gutted they chose to run him on Saturday at Newbury - ran pretty well too and would have been a player in the Ebor.

A disappointed Ian Williams suggested his runner-up had hit the front too soon and targetted a trip to France for the five-year-old.

He said: "You would have thought he was the winner a furlong out but he didn't find ads much in front as he might have done. He might just have felt last weekend's race in his legs.

So Ian Williams throws away the chance of winning a £155k first prize by running him a week before in a race where a 4th place won him £3.5k.
What a fu*king plonker.