Irish Derby

I hope there will be a real strong pace in this race with the Godolphin pacemaker being supplemented. Galieleo Rock is still lightly raced and was inconvenienced by the slow pace as much as anyone at Epsom

ROTW will take all the beating, but it will be no "cakewalk" imo.
He has the turn of foot to seal it, the rest look more galloping types from what we have seen of them so far. Not my kind of price, but I expect the fav will land the Derby double.

Looks good doesn't it....

I'm backing Trading Leather, who tops my ratings, although I'm fully aware that if the Derby had been run more strongly then ROTW just may have rated higher than him. At the start of the year I thought TL might've developed into a Derby contender but he's been slow to improve on last year's form. However, I have his latest run as his best run yet and I wouldn't be surprised if he improved a bit more. Libertarian may have beat him in the Dante but I reckon he'll have the beating of that one tomorrow. I was surprised when Bolger expressed stamina doubts about TL earlier in the season, as I've always thought 12f would see him to best effect.

Of course there's still the little matter of overcoming the favourite, but as the Epsom form is yet to convince me that ROTW is anything more than an ordinary Derby winner I wouldn't even begin to think of backing him at that price. It's impossible to get a true handle on a horse when a race is run in the manner this year's Derby was, but if the race can be taken at face value, I would have ROTW as a 3lbs better horse than Battle of Marengo, which would leave nothing between him and TL. Obviously ROTW is still unbeaten and open to further improvement and  might prove he's even better than the bare Derby form, but as I can't see TL out of the frame he has to be a bet.

2 pacemakers in the race should ensure no funny business at the start. 12/1 is available about Galileo Rock but ive not checked the weather forecast so holding fire for now. There must be a market without the Fav, too.

Granted fast ground (g/f atm) Trading Leather should run well, looks a sound place bet or ew if u think he can beat ROTW.

Cap ' Orushes  ...probably daft   , said to be a pacemaker for Libertarian , but his heavily baulked run  in a field that included  TL  and GR   in October twelve  ,   at least worth a look

Your right Mac, "probably daft"
In to help with the pace, nothing more.

If  the Horse is to be sacrificed as an out and out   pacemaker  then that is a shame   , he is a real talent in his own right  .When he beat (now   106   rated Glean)  from the Hanon Stable last   year ,he  did it fair and square   , his  own OR of  97  may well be   misleading   , if he  has not gone backwards ,( his run LTO   at Ascot suggests otherwise ) then    a Rating close to that of Glean   is
not unrealistic ,a rating of that kind   put  him in here  as   a 25/1 shot  .

In terms of breeding,     New Approach   by a twelve furlong winning    Shirley Heights  Mare  he will   get the trip  just fine, however it is likely   that   he will be asked to perform an eight or nine furlong burn  up for Libertarian  ,  ironically a Horse   that may not stay  the trip  any better

This thread is about the derby not the st leger why do you keep talking about the trip when both horses have ran over this distance perfectly fine?

In the world of Athletics  There are   four minute milers  and  there are     three minute   forty nine second milers .I think the plan is to  go at a   very quick tempo from  the  Off  today  in the hope that they can  tap into Libertarians  stamina reserves at the buisness end  , they seem to have a very determined plan to do so    gl

Oh I see apologies! Usually when talking in terms of trip in horse racing it's about staying the trip. I'd expect a potential derby winner to be winning handicaps of 94 if I'm honest although Hillstar made me look a mug in similar circumstances in a group 2.

could have phrased it better , nearly all horses ,'stay the ,trip' ,  if the pace is modest  enough,   but as   connections  of Roberto proved    back in the Seventies a  well designed plan that involves  a furlong by furlong increase  of pace    can be  the undoing  even  of a Superstar .If ROW pulls it off today he  can be classed as a really good Horse imo

Sorry mac I just don't buy into the nearly all horses stay the trip of 1m4f if the pace is steady?? The Epsom Derby pace was very steady, yet i seen a few that did not get the 1m4f trip at Epsom. Tosh imo.

At the prices I am chancing Sugar Boy, who has some decent form.

Well done Figgis

well done winners  ... Cap O'rushes has run to about  110   , I did  not put  up Trading leather  who  i backed   as others had put that up earlier in the thrd    ''Tosh'' not one bit offended, will talk plenty of that

After my worst ever Royal Ascot this was all somewhat inevitable.

Thx Figgis I backed it after your write up and my own suspicions that the derby form was pish.

Good call Figgis. Don't think that can be ROTW's form though.

Cheers, gents. I think there's no doubt ROTW and Libertarian were below par. ROTW was noticeably warm but I still think he has to be regarded as a poor Derby winner, as there seems no reason to excuse him. If he'd been flat out in a fast run Derby, like Workforce, you could say he possibly hadn't recovered, but we all know that wasn't the case and his trial was also slowly run. If there was an occasion for him to show what he can really do then it should've been today.

I'd be inclined to forgive both of them on what was very quick ground. I think on good ground I'd back ROTW to beat Trading Leather if I thought the price was big enough.

I'd excuse a horse a few lengths on faster ground, unless the horse was a total mudlark then I'd excuse it more, but ROTW was so well beaten by some pretty ordinary horses that I'm not excusing him just on the ground. It will be interesting to see where they go next, as he'll have to face his elders next time and nothing he's shown so far suggests he can compete with them. Apparently they're giving him a rest, which means he'll be meeting them later in the year on less favourable terms, he'll need to improve during that time.

Think you have to come to the conclusion that, as is becoming increasingly common, it's a very bad crop of English/Irish middle distance 3 year olds. Obviously it's a shame that Kingsbarns and Telescope have both gone missing given they were 1st and 2nd favs for the Derby through the winter.

The Derby form is already shot to pieces and Trading Leather is hardly a proper Group 1 horse - wouldn't have got within 10 lengths of horses like Galileo, Montjeu, Sea The Stars etc.

Incidentally, Stevie, have you noticed how the 6f races were unbelievably slow in comparison with the 5f and 6f63y races? I've noticed it before at this particular meeting, they have to be moving the starting position, unbelievable.

There was also a 5f 2yo race that Cay Verde won last year that seemed quick compared to the 6f race. I'm always having problems with those races. need to look through the videos I think.

Yes, I remember that race, I put that one down to wind changes. In my view, the Curragh is amongst the worst for wind playing havoc with times, plus the round course can be problematic when the move the rails around. On occasions like today, though, I know it has to be changes to the starting stalls position.

yeah could perhaps work it out by timing to 1st furlong pole? think i might just do a collateral rating on the 5f sprint as Move in Time has probably run to his King's stand figure. Too many meetings to sort out today.

Fwiw, I have all the other straight course times comparable, only the 6f ones are out.

they seemed to go very slow in that 6f race figgis. I clocked 26.1 for first 2f. 11.7 last furlong compared to 13.1 for hcap. although hard to get accurate times.

or could be stalls further back as you say

The Railway Stakes? Must admit I've not really looked at the race in depth so maybe I spoke too soon in this instance. I just thought they looked to quicken around halfway and I would've expected a much quicker time from that class of horse, even allowing for a slowish early pace. I'll have a proper look tomorrow.

yeah railway stakes. the 5f pole to 4f pole seemed very slow in comparison to hcap.

O'Brien was offering no excuses for Ruler Of The World. He said: "There's a big chance the gallop caught him out - at Epsom they went slow and he kicked and won but he wasn't going away at the finish then.

"Joseph's [O'Brien] first thoughts were that he did not get the trip. He could be more of a 1m2f horse at the top level. He also did get very warm, which he hadn't done at Epsom."

Libertarian beat Trading Leather at York but produced a lifeless performance on his first start for Godolphin and was beaten a long way from home.

Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford said of Libertarian: "He was beaten too far out for it to be real. We'll just have to take him home and talk plans then."

I am traumatised that Festive Cheer got no run :(

Mac99 wasn't far off with his 66/1 poke.

I have settled on a figure of 107 for Trading Leather, that's
without WFA.

Nice run from Galileo Rock. He has no speed, just a stayer, strong pace was perfect. David Wachman got some more improvement from him.

Well done Figgis.

Yeah he looks one for the leger sint. I still like Libertarian for the leger as well as long as ground is not so quick.

Figgis, I did my figures for the curragh and they've come out ok. yes 5f and 6f 63y worked on same allowance on my standards.

The railway stakes I've given a sectional mark up of 30 based on last 2f of 22.1s. If you look at Formosina 2 years back he ran a quicker time but was 23.6 for last 2. Anyway that still only gives me 96 for the winner after 18 wfa but that'll have to do.
Of course i'm not very confident about those figures.

WD Figgis hope u had a gd few ££££ on. He did look the main danger to the fav.
Very tough horse & loves fast ground. Hope he has a crack at the KG with him, getting 12 lbs from the older horses & granted fast ground, he would have a shout.

Ta, lads.

Again WD figgis. Shame about the free loaders that "backed it" after the race was run?? SAD SAD SAD. Of course they did

Figgis well done   on two Counts , you  were  one of only seven or so  Forumites  to raise  their heads above the Parapet  and  up a selection for the Race  ,    this  is a real  pity as  the Irish Derby it  still one one of the  big races of the European   flat season , You named the winer and gave  solid reasons for doing  so  , TL   was  clearly the best  Horse in the race and could be called the winner a long way out  , if the Race   drew little attention   from the vast majority of   racing pundits on here    then you can be sure  a filthy    AT   slur   certainly will , much deserved  in my case  i hasten to add  ,  if not in others    , ok , so thanks to all  those   who  contributed  with views and selections on the race ,  we need more , much more than seven  points of view   if thriving unfettered  debate   on big races is to continue   on these  Racing  Forum

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I guess you are referring to me miller race? I did back it and have no reason to lie. I only had £10 e/w so it's not like lumped. I didn't post beforehand because I didn't feel I had anything worthwhile to contribute and solely backed it on what Figgis posted as I had a feeling none of the derby runners would win it,but it was only a feeling.