Irish Derby

ROTW will take all the beating, but it will be no "cakewalk" imo.
He has the turn of foot to seal it, the rest look more galloping types from what we have seen of them so far. Not my kind of price, but I expect the fav will land the Derby double.

I'm backing Trading Leather, who tops my ratings, although I'm fully aware that if the Derby had been run more strongly then ROTW just may have rated higher than him. At the start of the year I thought TL might've developed into a Derby contender but he's been slow to improve on last year's form. However, I have his latest run as his best run yet and I wouldn't be surprised if he improved a bit more. Libertarian may have beat him in the Dante but I reckon he'll have the beating of that one tomorrow. I was surprised when Bolger expressed stamina doubts about TL earlier in the season, as I've always thought 12f would see him to best effect.

Of course there's still the little matter of overcoming the favourite, but as the Epsom form is yet to convince me that ROTW is anything more than an ordinary Derby winner I wouldn't even begin to think of backing him at that price. It's impossible to get a true handle on a horse when a race is run in the manner this year's Derby was, but if the race can be taken at face value, I would have ROTW as a 3lbs better horse than Battle of Marengo, which would leave nothing between him and TL. Obviously ROTW is still unbeaten and open to further improvement and  might prove he's even better than the bare Derby form, but as I can't see TL out of the frame he has to be a bet.

Granted fast ground (g/f atm) Trading Leather should run well, looks a sound place bet or ew if u think he can beat ROTW.

Your right Mac, "probably daft"
In to help with the pace, nothing more.

This thread is about the derby not the st leger why do you keep talking about the trip when both horses have ran over this distance perfectly fine?

Oh I see apologies! Usually when talking in terms of trip in horse racing it's about staying the trip. I'd expect a potential derby winner to be winning handicaps of 94 if I'm honest although Hillstar made me look a mug in similar circumstances in a group 2.

Sorry mac I just don't buy into the nearly all horses stay the trip of 1m4f if the pace is steady?? The Epsom Derby pace was very steady, yet i seen a few that did not get the 1m4f trip at Epsom. Tosh imo.

Well done Figgis

After my worst ever Royal Ascot this was all somewhat inevitable.

Good call Figgis. Don't think that can be ROTW's form though.

I'd be inclined to forgive both of them on what was very quick ground. I think on good ground I'd back ROTW to beat Trading Leather if I thought the price was big enough.

Think you have to come to the conclusion that, as is becoming increasingly common, it's a very bad crop of English/Irish middle distance 3 year olds. Obviously it's a shame that Kingsbarns and Telescope have both gone missing given they were 1st and 2nd favs for the Derby through the winter.

The Derby form is already shot to pieces and Trading Leather is hardly a proper Group 1 horse - wouldn't have got within 10 lengths of horses like Galileo, Montjeu, Sea The Stars etc.

There was also a 5f 2yo race that Cay Verde won last year that seemed quick compared to the 6f race. I'm always having problems with those races. need to look through the videos I think.

yeah could perhaps work it out by timing to 1st furlong pole? think i might just do a collateral rating on the 5f sprint as Move in Time has probably run to his King's stand figure. Too many meetings to sort out today.

they seemed to go very slow in that 6f race figgis. I clocked 26.1 for first 2f. 11.7 last furlong compared to 13.1 for hcap. although hard to get accurate times.

The Railway Stakes? Must admit I've not really looked at the race in depth so maybe I spoke too soon in this instance. I just thought they looked to quicken around halfway and I would've expected a much quicker time from that class of horse, even allowing for a slowish early pace. I'll have a proper look tomorrow.

O'Brien was offering no excuses for Ruler Of The World. He said: "There's a big chance the gallop caught him out - at Epsom they went slow and he kicked and won but he wasn't going away at the finish then.

"Joseph's [O'Brien] first thoughts were that he did not get the trip. He could be more of a 1m2f horse at the top level. He also did get very warm, which he hadn't done at Epsom."

Libertarian beat Trading Leather at York but produced a lifeless performance on his first start for Godolphin and was beaten a long way from home.

Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford said of Libertarian: "He was beaten too far out for it to be real. We'll just have to take him home and talk plans then."

Mac99 wasn't far off with his 66/1 poke.

I have settled on a figure of 107 for Trading Leather, that's
without WFA.

Yeah he looks one for the leger sint. I still like Libertarian for the leger as well as long as ground is not so quick.

Figgis, I did my figures for the curragh and they've come out ok. yes 5f and 6f 63y worked on same allowance on my standards.

The railway stakes I've given a sectional mark up of 30 based on last 2f of 22.1s. If you look at Formosina 2 years back he ran a quicker time but was 23.6 for last 2. Anyway that still only gives me 96 for the winner after 18 wfa but that'll have to do.
Of course i'm not very confident about those figures.