BHA's Handicapper Blog for Royal Ascot

25th June 2013

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/goracing/blogs/handicappers.asp
Royal Ascot is always the pinnacle of the summer season and this year’s jamboree will go down as one of the all-time greats. A royal winner of the most prestigious event of the week proved a fantastic centrepiece and a supporting card featuring a poignant double for Warren Place and the return of ‘the real’ Dawn Approach ensures it will live long in the memory.

The Lady Cecil-trained pair will be discussed in Phil Smith’s Head of Handicapping Blog which focuses on all of the 1m2f and 1m4f action, but there’s a bumper update here on the best from the other distances, leading off with Her Majesty’s infamous Gold Cup success.

ESTIMATE COMES OUT BEST

What looked beforehand to be an open Gold Cup ended up going to the favourite, with The Queen’s filly Estimate outstaying the boys, writes Stephen Hindle.

Quite how much of the money that made her the jolly was put down more in hope than in expectation I’m not sure, but those who did back her, and many who didn’t, were celebrating a royal winner as Estimate held on well to score by a neck from the Irish-challenger Simenon, with Top Trip filling third only a length further back for France, in what was a thrilling finish.

On official marks Estimate actually went in to the race as one of the lower rated, but that didn’t really tell the whole story. Staying has always looked her game, as she showed when making a name for herself when upped to 2m for the first time in last year’s Queen’s Vase, winning by five lengths. That race, however, is traditionally filled with horses that are unproven in Group company and is therefore not usually a contest where the winner can be given a high rating. It’s no surprise that a further step up in trip has brought about more improvement.

She clearly loves Ascot, having won not only that race but another Group 3, the Sagaro Stakes, on her 2013 reappearance. Furthermore, as the only filly in the Gold Cup, she was receiving weight all round, which means that even though I’ve factored in an extra 1lb for ground lost when edging to her left and possibly idling, the best horse in the race on the maths is the second Simenon.

Like Estimate, Simenon also came into the race rated 108, but he was a real eye-catcher on his 2013 reappearance, making up any number of lengths in the final two furlongs of the Chester Cup and finishing a good fourth off a mark of 107. Another who likes the Royal meeting, Simenon had won both the Ascot Stakes and Queen Alexandra Stakes last year.

The first two had clearly improved, so I looked closely at Top Trip in order to set the level. Rated 114 internationally last year, it seemed more than reasonable to assume he’s at least as good this time round. Another reason for thinking that Top Trip was worth 114 was the fifth, German raider Altano. Rated 112 going in, Altano ended up further back than ideal the way the race unfolded and, when faced with the choice of his having run to his mark or 1lb below it, I felt more comfortable having him just below.

Colour Vision isn’t a great help when it comes to rating the race. Whilst this clearly represents a return to form, he can’t be rated as highly as when successful in last year’s Gold Cup when he received a mark of 117.

Even with the view I’ve taken, I have sixth-placed El Salvador and seventh-placed Model Pupil outperforming their marks, so it seems sensible at this point to err on the side of caution.
Estimate comes out 114, with Simenon 115 and Top Trip another 114. I have Colour Vision running to 112 but as he was hanging, I’ve lowered him only to 113.

Overall it comes out as a sub-standard renewal in terms of the winner and second, yet the ratings of those a bit further back are higher than average, which partly underlines a lack of a true pace but I think also confirms that it was an open Group 1 which, if lacking real quality at the top, did have some strength in depth.

With that said about the winner, Sir Michael Stoute thinks Estimate could continue to improve judging by his comments post-race and I certainly wouldn’t disagree. She’s made only seven racecourse appearances, she’s unbeaten at 2m+ and is unlikely to be sent to the well too often, while her stamina has arguably still not been fully tested.


THREE-YEAR-OLDS PROVE THE BEST BY MILES

Is anybody else out there getting a slight sense of “déjà vu” with the personal duel that is starting to develop between this year’s top three-year-old milers Dawn Approach and Toronado, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

Remember 2008 when Henrythenavigator beat Raven’s Pass in the 2000 Guineas, the St James’s Palace and again in the Sussex Stakes – on each occasion by a smaller margin than the previous run – only for John Gosden’s colt to finally wrench away the miling crown from his old adversary in the Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot in October?

I wonder if a similar scenario is due to be played out in front of us this summer.

Back to 1m after the Derby debacle Dawn Approach (124+) landed the St James’s Palace by a short head from Richard Hannon’s colt (123+) to take the personal score between them to 2-0 but boy did Toronado make him work hard and many felt he was an unlucky loser – both suffered interference when Glory Awaits (111 but retains pre-race 114) ducked left two furlongs out but some felt Toronado got the worst of it. The level for the race is gained using French challenger Mshawish running to his pre-race 114, suggesting third placed Mars has improved again to a mark of 117 and that fifth and sixth placed Glory Awaits and Dundonnel both ran 3lb off their very best.

A performance figure of 124+ for Dawn Approach is the second highest posted in the race since the turn of the century with only Shamardal’s 125 when winning the race at York in 2005 being higher, whilst Toronado’s figure of 123 would have been good enough to win eight of the previous ten runnings of the race – they are two high class colts and will hopefully both turn up fit and well for the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood for Round Three!

From a visual point of view, the most impressive winner over 1m all week was Sky Lantern in the Coronation Stakes. Under a masterful ride from Richard Hughes, she overcame being drawn 16 to draw right away from the field and stamp her authority with a four length success. The figures for the race appear to fit quite well and I have taken the view that third placed Just The Judge has reproduced her 110 performances from both the English and the Irish 1000 Guineas, suggesting that Sky Lantern has run to 119 and French-trained runner-up Kenhope has performed to 111. This was another performance well up to scratch in the recent history of the race, with only Indian Ink’s (another for the Hannon/Hughes combo) six length romp in 2007 being considered superior since the turn of the century at 121.

As far as the older milers are concerned, Farhh’s absence from the opening Queen Anne left the race with a very open look about it and so it proved with two of those left trailing in his wake in the Lockinge fighting out the finish. A winning figure of 118 suggests that Declaration of War’s performance in the race was superior to only that of Ad Valorem (117) in 2006 but the way he quickened having met trouble in running suggest there may be more to come and he would make a fascinating gatecrasher to the Dawn Approach/Toronado party at Goodwood should Aidan O’Brien choose to tread that path!


MAY THE FORCE BE WITH YOU

The 6f Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes has gained a reputation in recent years of attracting a truly international field and this year was no exception, with challengers from America, Australia, Bahrain, France and Ireland taking on their British hosts, writes Stewart Copeland.

Much of the focus beforehand was on the favourite Society Rock, and whether he could repeat his 2011 success in the race having shown himself as good as ever in the Group 2 Duke of York on his seasonal reappearance.

However the honours instead fell to the Clive Cox-trained four-year-old colt Lethal Force, who’d been beaten a head into second by Society Rock on the Knavesmire, comprehensively turning the tables despite being 5lb worse off.

Soon at the head of affairs racing with plenty of enthusiasm, Lethal Force was asked to stamp his authority on the race over two furlongs out and never looked in danger of being caught despite the strong late challenge of the patiently-ridden Society Rock. The winning distance was a decisive two lengths, with a further one and three quarter lengths back to the Bahrain runner, Krypton Factor.

When two horses are ridden in such contrasting fashion, my main focus is to consider whether one has gained an advantage over the other as a result of the tactics employed, and how that would impact on my overall view of the race. The sectional timings which were available at Royal Ascot proved a big help for my analysis.

Having studied them closely I came to the conclusion that even though Society Rock might have been at a slight disadvantage given how the race panned out, I’m of the opinion that Lethal Force still ran out a worthy winner on the day. A further overall time comparison with the Wokingham winner, the 109-rated York Glory, shows Lethal Force covered the 6f in 0.43s quicker, whilst carrying an additional 2lb as well, which is what you’d expect given the respective quality on show in the two races.

Therefore, having decided that, the next job was what to rate Lethal Force. As we do in such races, we not only calculate the level on the current form of those he beat, but also how it fits in a historical context based on the standards we keep, and what we would normally expect a winner to achieve in the race. Both these methods pointed me to a figure of 120, easily a career best for Lethal Force having been rated 111 coming in to the race, but one fully deserved in my view. That also meant Society Rock ran a shade below his rating of 117, which tied in with how I felt the race panned out.

To add further substance to Lethal Force’s rating, this meant that Krypton Factor reproduced his previous turf best rating of 111, which he ran to in last year’s renewal won by Black Caviar. It’s worth pointing out his current rating of 117 is based on his form on the Tapeta at Meydan, which at present looks his favoured surface.

Since the turn of the millennium the average winning rating has been in the region of 117/118 so it’s fair to say this year’s renewal looks above average. Indeed this past decade only a couple of winners have posted a higher figure in the race with Starspangledbanner in 2010, and Choisir in 2003, interestingly the sire of the aforementioned, both achieving 121.


WAR IN COMMAND AT THIS EARLY STAGE

Most of the two-year-old races at Royal Ascot were won impressively resulting in above-average figures, writes Matthew Tester. I got the impression that we have a really good crop of winners but that there was not huge strength in depth behind them.

Both the fillies’ races were won decisively. Rizeena comes in at 106 for her Queen Mary and I really think she will rate higher in time. The form of the placed horses rather holds down the figures although you had to be impressed by the style of the win.

Kiyoshi earned a 112 from me for her rather wayward win in the Albany, beating horses like Sandiva and Heart Focus who were already proven performers. I was also very taken with Joyeuse who got anything but a clear run and should prove much better for the experience.

The big colts’ races also worked out strongly. War Command is pencilled in for now at an exceptional 119. This is the same sort of figure as for other wide-margin Coventry winners like Canford Cliffs and Three Valleys. He must have taken connections massively by surprise to be their third-string and go off at 20/1. A trainer would normally know if he had a two-year-old who was that far ahead of everything else, so I will feel more comfortable once he gets the chance to do it again. Three Valleys went on to win the Middle Park and was then beaten only a head in the Dewhurst. Canford Cliffs came back from injury to win five Group 1s. Let us hope that War Command is the real deal.

No Nay Never smashed the juvenile course record to win the Norfolk. He did it from the front whereas every other two-year-old winner of the week had been held up. I was really impressed and he gets an above average 110 for the win.

Berkshire also made a great impression with the style of his victory in the Chesham. He only had to run to 104 to win it but he could be a major player in the championship races at the end of the season. Finally, Extortionist earned a 104 in the Windsor Castle, but the one who really caught my eye there was My Catch in fifth. He made up plenty of ground late on and can be expected to step up considerably on his 102 performance