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R.Ascot : RPR & TS - I must have been rating a different R.Ascot

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Replies: 95
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jun 13 17:32
Yes, it was a conspiracy by Timeform and the racing world to keep Frankel's lofty reputation intact Grin
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 29 Jun 13 07:18
Finalised my Ascot ratings and I'm not making any more changes for at least a few days
My top 10 2yos

Kiyoshi 114
War Command 111
No nay never 110
Rizeena 107
Berkshire 106
Coach house 105
Extortionist 104
Supplicant 103
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Jul 13 11:56
I see Topspeed today has DOW a huge 22lbs behind Al Kazeem, which is baffling to me.
By:
pedrobob
When: 06 Jul 13 13:02
agree, I made it 4lbs?
Suspect they have a problem with the 5f to 1m comparison of standard times? If Topspeed raises Declaration of War (93), then will have to raise the 5f Windsor Castle winner (Extortionist 97) to a figure perhaps "doesn't like".
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Jul 13 13:11
I have AK only 1lb higher, ped. As I've said before, I certainly don't expect everyone to agree, but 22lbs is ridiculous.
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Jul 13 13:15
The 1lb higher rating is from his Curragh run, I rate the POW run 1lb below the Queen Anne.
By:
pedrobob
When: 06 Jul 13 13:24
Laugh ironically, I have the Curragh as a slow race
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Jul 13 13:33
Ped, I can understand that, though. After repeated viewings of the Curragh race I'm not convinced it was as slow run as the comparative times suggest, so, rightly or wrongly, I made some adjustments for wind, as I often do for the Curragh.
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Jul 13 18:45
Pedrobob, well your 4lbs was much closer to the result than my 1lb. How do you rate today's race? My immediate reaction was I must've underestimated the POW but I find it difficult to rate the Eclipse any higher than below average, which is surprising as the pace looked fair enough.
By:
pedrobob
When: 07 Jul 13 00:40
agree Figgis, just a modest gallop produced a slow time for a Group 1. They're a poor bunch imo and though he keeps winning, don't have Al Kazeem anywhere near Arc standard.
Visually, thought the pace was slow in the first half, they were racing all over each other?
By:
Figgis
When: 07 Jul 13 01:26
Yes, I agree, after watching the race again I can see the pace was steady for most of the way. Maybe he's better than we're giving him credit for and he's capable of running faster if needed. Like you, though, I'm against him when he faces stronger in form opponents. Still, he deserves credit for toughness and consistency, attributes that some more talented horses don't possess.
By:
pedrobob
When: 07 Jul 13 10:23
looking at database, actually have him only 5-6lbs behind Orfevre, but bit more behind Intello (8*, notional figure) and Treve (11*), but as you say maybe Al Kazeem can go quicker yet.
One thing for sure, had the 3yos as a poor bunch bar Dawan Approach (and then Toronado in the St James Palace) all season, though the French Diane and Jockey Club winners above did very well imo.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 07 Jul 13 11:21
the bha figures look too high to me.
Al Kazeem a 126 horse going into eclipse, Mukhadram a 125 horse and Miblish a 116 horse, that's miles out. Miblish can only be 104/5 max Mukhadram 114. Al Kazeem I have on a 119 after sectional adjustment at ascot which put him 5 ahead of Mukhadram.

It seems to me some modest horses have contested prestigious races and been awarded high marks.
By:
Smiley
When: 07 Jul 13 11:22
AK getting damned with faint praise.

This is a very good horse that is improving with every race. Considering that it was arguably not his best distance, certainly not his best ground, he hosed up yesterday. He has speed, stamina and guts.

I think he is the real deal.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 07 Jul 13 11:38
Oh actually it looks like the handicapper has rated the Ascot race through The Fugue's 116. Despite that horse having been given far too much to do on sectionals and was having first race of season.
By:
pedrobob
When: 07 Jul 13 12:17
think a lot of Al Kazeem's form rests on how high you rate Camelot.

Personally don't rate Camelot at all and think one of the biggest hype jobs Coolmore ever produced. Ran possibly one decent figure in the Derby (115), but not given him timefigure of higher than 90 in 6 starts since.

So remove Camelot, and what has Al Kazeem beaten? Beat Mukhadram twice narrowly, that horse's best effort is a 1/2 length beating of Main Sequence in a Group 3, who in turn hasn't won in 7 starts

AK beat Declaration of War yesterday, who in turn won the poorest Queen Anne in decades. The close 2nd and 3rd Alhamaheer and Gregorian in the Queen Anne had won 3 (listed, conditions and Grp 3) of their previous 14 collective starts between them

Agree that Al Kazeem keeps winning and very consistent, but not earned anything higher than timefigure of 100 in 11 career starts, well short (so far) of winning something like an Arc
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