R.Ascot : RPR & TS - I must have been rating a different R.Ascot

No doubt they are bent into shape. It's a fairly impossible task really. The race distances can't be relied upon for a start.
Maybe they should be called speed handicapped ratings. I suspect many of us so a similar thing with our own ratings.
Ascot must be even harder to predict, given the part artificial surface of the home straight.

Sandown

I'm not an RP member so I don't know the Topspeed ratings. It's also difficult for me to make direct comparisons as I prefer to use a much lower scale and prefer not to factor wfa allowances. What I can say is I have Al Kazeem running only a Listed/Gp3 time, although there was only one race on the round course that day so it's open to a wider interpretation than most. I agree Rizeena was a good time, as was No Nay Never. I can see why Remote could be rated higher if using a direct comparison with other races on the round course, but in my view, the slowish early pace and bunched finish is at odds with this. I did, however, rate him higher on his previous run and he's a horse I would be interested in backing again. Kiyoshi was very impressive on the clock, as well as visually, well above average for the race, although I'm not convinced about her long term.

As far as future betting goes I thought the most interesting performance was that of War Command, as in my opinion the time was pretty mediocre for such a seemingly visually impressive performance, I'll be looking to oppose that one.

SJ, I hadn't seen that Timeform rating, even more keen to lay oppose him now then

I'm not saying it was a rubbish time but I'd say it was slightly below average. Since the course alterations I have only Hellvelyn and Power below him. It looks as though the whole race fell apart around him. Of course, he might be better than that, or might improve on it, but as he was even a surprise to connections maybe that's as good as he is? As he's going to be priced up as a future superstar he has to be opposed by anybody that uses the clock as a guide.

cheers for that figgis,also feel that the stand side may have had a slight advantage.
Btw do you time boys take that into account as well?

Thanks for many replies

thanks again figgis i'll leave you in peace now.lol

i swear top speed figures are just plucked from the air...

Just to chat about ascot in general...and the 2 year olds...poor bunch in general

I have to say although it was a weak looking chesham I really liked the winner...he still has a lot to learn but can only improve physically...hope he can go on from this and although i'm not a heavy 2 year old backer i am interested to see how this fellow progresses...the mother was a really progressive mare and although the maiden he ran in first time looked a poor affair with a bunch finish, he himself looks progressive and is just a likeable individual...just hope they don't go mad with him as like i say it was a poor chesham but if he goes on from this he could be good... p.cole a worry though

Figgis I have War Command just 3lb less than what I gave dawn approach last year. thought it was a decent performance myself

Stevie, actually I have him only 2lbs less than the rating I had for DA. I had DA improving significantly in the National Stakes. I tend to think that the difference between a good winner and an average winner is too big where most official ratings are concerned, I don't know if that's because they overestimate the effect of weight or some other reason. I don't know what the official ratings were for the race since 2006 but I have only a 6lbs spread between best and worst over the last 8 years.

As I said, I'm not saying the performance was slow, just that it was ordinary and he's going to be priced up as much better than that. In my view he isn't on the evidence so far.

Apologies, I wasn't including Canford Cliffs, would be an 11lbs spread with him included.

btw Sandown, one of the difference between Topspeed this year is the 6f standard time was changed from 73s last year down to 72.4 this year. my one is 72.6. anyway must study carlisle now.

Wow, ped, I'm surprised you have WC so high, you obviously must have a higher 6f standard than me, in relation to the other distances on the straight track.

Yeah it can be problematic, ped. I still maintain that allowances can change even for races on the same part of the course when there has been no rain. I think this helps to blur the issue when compiling standards. However, for the Tuesday it was pretty straight forward for me, one allowance for the straight and one for the round.

Some observations re the future

1. War Command could turn out to be a G1 horse at 8f/10f
2. Al Kazeem is up to G1 class already
3. Rizeena and No Nay Never could both turn out  to be G1 class sprinters
4. Estimate is not yet in the same class as previous GC winners
5. Remote is better than his rating and can win at G2 class at least and possible G1 in time
6. Hillstar improved remarkbly and could go on to be G1 class
7. Berkshire is one to keep an eye on

Interesting that I differ with some over War Command who put up a fastish time with good splits and rates solid 2000 Gns material imo

Agree with most of that, Sandown, except WC obviously and Hillstar I have improving only 4lbs on his Newmarket run. I laid BOM in the race but it was a poor bet really as I'd figured that Hillstar was the main hope I had running for me and I ought to have backed him instead. I have it as just a bog standard King Edward performance, but wouldn't surprise me if he improved a bit more.

I think it's good that there are such varied opinions on this thread. It annoys me when I hear McNae on tv saying such and such ran a big/poor speed figure, giving the implication that all time enthusiasts are in agreement.

That Newmarket run of Hillstars was quite difficult to rate given the tail-wind that day which seemed to get stronger. I still gave it quite a decent figure but do have the ascot run 12lb better with a possible 2lb sectional mark up. I do think he improved for the step up in trip.

Your comment on Al Kazeem is interesting, I wonder where this better opposition is going to come from. From the look of the Eclipse he might well have to beat the same two horses again plus maybe Mars to win. Although there could be definitely an arguement made that there is a dearth of decent G1 1m 2f horses at the moment. I agree he didn't improve much in the performance (if at all) but I still think this will be good enough to pick up the eclipse for instance.

@Figgis, I am now on Al Kazeem ante-post at decent enough prices and would like him to win obviously, I have stated on the eclipse thread that I think he will go off a lot shorter, potentially 5/4 or 11/10 as a top price. If there aren't alot of entries then I could see even shorter than that. However I would agree that if he wins he could shorten up for a lot of races for which I wouldn't fancy him so much, for instance the Arc.

I remember when I was at Doncaster and Rasheeda was going nuts in the parade ring and thought I had done my money but he won so wouldn't put too much stock into it. It also didn't stop him being gambled from 8/1 to 3/1.

120p    WAR COMMAND
109p    KIYOSHI
108p    BERKSHIRE
108    RIZEENA
106p    COACH HOUSE
106    EXTORTIONIST
106    SANDIVA
105    ANTICIPATED
105    SUPPLICANT

Timeform's ratings have War Command well clear

My highest rated maiden before Ascot was the Leicester one in which Toormore beat Ertijaal.

Ertijaal won today, not a great time, although I managed to get a rough sectional to a path after 2f which he appeared to reach around 3s after the 6f hcap and then ran the final 4 around 2.5s quicker and he's beaten a reasonable horse in 2nd by 6.

Both him and Toomore I feel could match War command's rating.