Horse Antepost

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
20 Jun 13 15:49
Date Joined: 04 Aug 11
| Topic/replies: 3,217 | Blogger: Millerracing67's blog
The 1st Big all age G1 clash over here is just over 3wks away.
Would be very interested in Farhh if he is going to be ready for it?
Any reports on his wellbeing??
Pause Switch to Standard View Coral Eclipse Stks.
Show More
Report Stevie Gerrard July 10, 2013 4:02 PM BST
Hot snap 115+ for nell gwyn
Report Figgis July 10, 2013 4:03 PM BST
Best figure, for me, was the Coronation, only a 2lbs improvement over her Guineas win, though. I've always maintained the Nell Gwyn time was misleading. Think she was underrated for the Guineas win and even though her Coronation win was an improvement, it probably looked even better than it actually was due to the way the race was run. Still, should be nothing capable of beating her on Friday, assuming she's in the same form and it doesn't develop into a farce.
Report Millerracing67 July 10, 2013 8:28 PM BST
Figgis/Sandown.  You both seem a bit 2 hung-up on how high Al Kazeem is being rated for his G1 wins this season & how he compares with past winners of Sat's Eclipse Stks. That point of view is just that, "a point of view" the handicapper will be the one who will have the official say on that matter, as well as timeform, we punters will agree or disagree on it.
I'am more interested on the betting winners side of thing myself. As for the 3s on offer on sat morn with Hills & Lads, I managed to get £50 on with both books & the rest on at 5/2 with bet365, so your point on that matter holds no water.
I stand by my view that Al Kazeem ic a smart G1 horse & it will take a very smart performance from something to beat him this season.
We shall see.Shocked
Report mac99 July 10, 2013 9:59 PM BST
hey Figgis/ Sandown    i know this is a bit off topic  but what do you think  about the chances of  SpaceShip tomorrow , ran a great race at Ascot  LTO  from a poor  draw  ( 15)  , this is a good bit less demanding   I would have said , you know on a lime through Cap O'rushes and his run in the Irish Derby  this horse  should now be racing ofExcitedGrinoff 108 min  !
Report mac99 July 10, 2013 10:00 PM BST
* line
Report Stevie Gerrard July 10, 2013 10:18 PM BST
didn't get a great figure for me mac although races weren't truly run on round course that day. Cap O rushes came from a long way back that day and was a bit keen early on so was clearly alot better than that. Space Ship has yet to post a decent figure for me and I think he will find it tough off this mark at 10f.

I have actually backed Goodwood Mirage who I gave a figure of 95 to lto and is my clear top rated, the form has also been boosted by sennockian star. but anyway good luck with your bet.
Report mac99 July 10, 2013 10:25 PM BST
I was aware  Cap O'rushs posted the best final furlong  time in the field that day and  Space ship  has a bit to prove   speed wise,    but a  three pound rise for that effort  was very fair  imo
Report Figgis July 10, 2013 10:33 PM BST
I agree with Stevie, Space Ship is in the lower half of the field on my ratings at the weights, but don't let that put you off as the race is much too difficult for me. Fwiw, my highest rated at the weights is Party Royal but he has no form over this trip. My next best is another Johnston runner, Greeleys Love, who has been beaten a combined distance of over 50 lengths on his last 2 starts and as a Johnston runner probably means it will bolt up tomorrow Wink.
Report mac99 July 10, 2013 10:34 PM BST
Goodwood mirage  progressive profile  , but the  sire Jeremy  puts me off  ,does he get ten furlong horses ?    he will  fly home now!!  gl
Report mac99 July 11, 2013 7:50 AM BST
space ship   may have run  some way  below his best  at  Epsom on his penultimate run ,  if he runs like he did there  and his held up out the back   today he will  probably  stay out the back , needs to ridden just off the pace  imo,  On the Epsom form  Greelys love  is a  serious contender  have not investigated  the chances of Party Royal  but who could be Shockedastonished by a  Johnston  outsider gl
Report Stevie Gerrard July 11, 2013 9:32 AM BST
I remember jeremy as a miler mac but probably now he's most famous as being the sire of triumph hurdle winner Our Connor.
Anyway not alot of sire stats on Jeremy yet.

so far
5f 2/45 -35.00
6f 5/68 -12.87
7f 6/45 -3.37
8f 4/23 +45.00
10f 2/11 +21.00

good or faster 9/128 7% -69.00
g/s and softer 11/81 13.58?% +68.26

I suppose the main worry on those stats would be the ground
but it's usually well watered for this meeting
Report Stevie Gerrard July 11, 2013 11:09 AM BST
I think an interesting race from a sectionals point of view was the maiden space scope finished 4th in behind Telescope last year. There were 3 mile races that day, the nursery and the hcap races truly run and the telescope maiden which was a steady pace. Telescope finishing the last 3f in around 34.4 compared to 37.1 for red avenger in the nursery and 36.5 for the hcap race.

Anyway this is where I agree with Sandown, my speed figure for the race wasn't telling me anything other than it was a steady pace. It's not until you add in sectionals that you can see the winner and 2nd that day are decent horses.  Space ship on the other hand didn't get as big a mark up as he had the run of the race but still suggested he was a high 80s horse as too was Soviet Rock.

A few good horses in that race that the bare speed figures didn't do justice to.

Now even if my sectional workings aren't that reliable, I still think it gives you a better idea of how good a horse is rather than not making any adjustments for pace.
Report Figgis July 11, 2013 12:55 PM BST
Yes, I totally agree, that race was obviously run at a slow pace. When I put a figure on a horse like that I know it's highly likely that it's capable of better and I'm mindful of that in future. A bit like when I rate a debut winner, although many decent debut winners go backwards next time, some more likely to if they're form certain yards, but that's a separate matter.

Where I disagree is that you can pinpoint how much a horse should be marked up for a good closing sectional/too fast early sectional. I think the outcome of this is very hit and miss. While there is some logic to it, there are also many horses who can run very fast for a given split, but that doesn't necessarily mean they will be able to run faster overall when that pace is rationed. Also I know how much wind can effect races from one race to the next, I'm sure the same is true for sections of a race. Anybody who thinks that wind has a uniform effect during an afternoon is being very naive.

As I said before, I'm not commenting on Sandown's workings as I don't know them exactly. There are probably people out there who have refined their methods to be pretty accurate. I'm only commenting on available published work I've seen.
Report Figgis July 11, 2013 12:59 PM BST
*wind can affect
Report Stevie Gerrard July 11, 2013 1:37 PM BST
yes there are flaws with them that's for sure. Obviously an out and out galloper with a good cruising speed setting a steady pace would not be getting marked up enough against say a horse that didn't truly stay but had a good to turn of foot. Yes the wind can mess things up also. I still find them worth doing though but don't trust them like I do my speed figures.

Anyway good days racing today and interesting to see what happens with that coventry stakes form.
Report Figgis July 11, 2013 1:46 PM BST
Yes, I was just thinking the same Stevie, a poor run from SJH wouldn't necessarily devalue the form, as he was beaten nearly 7 lengths, but it would give a doubter like me a bit more evidence. I have Brown Sugar top rated, but with promising once raced winners, Canyari and Figure of Speech not far behind. I'm laying the fav, he might be better than the Coventry form, I think a few there ran below their capabilities, but I think he's poor value.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 11, 2013 1:49 PM BST
I have good ratings for Brown Sugar, Canyari, Astaire and Figure Of Speech. Figure of Speech impressed me most but the call has to be lay the fav.
Report Sandown July 11, 2013 2:00 PM BST
I am very sanguine about whether others have doubts about the value of using sectional times and their  quantification into ratings. Truth be told, from a purely personal point of view,I'd rather not have others get involved in their use.The more that do, the less the edge will provide value. What is true that the interpretation of sectionals has taken me quite a long time to perfect. So, even if the availability of sectionals increases (which I doubt as their provision isn't of commercial value) I doubt that many will have the desire or the expertise to invest a goodly amount of their time.Needless to say, I do not spout on about each and every race for fear that my methods will become too clear. So, no proselytizing from me lads.Grin
Report Figgis July 11, 2013 2:04 PM BST

Just out of curiosity, what did you make of The Fugue in the POW. I know she was reckoned to have done a good late sectional and that some reckoned it meant she was capable of troubling the colts. Personally, I thought as the race was nothing special a fast late sectional didn't mean very much. For me, the best performance on the clock she'd ever given was last year's Musidora, which again wasn't particularly notable.
Report Figgis July 11, 2013 2:05 PM BST
Actually I had the POW perfectly matching the Musidora run.
Report Sandown July 11, 2013 2:12 PM BST
The run of SJH will have no bearing on War Command as on my ratings he is miles behind that one.I would lay him too, Figgis. Cue egg on face.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 11, 2013 2:15 PM BST
well jallota and SJH ran well enough there to boost war command
Report Figgis July 11, 2013 2:21 PM BST
I'm still happy enough with that to be against WC, providing he's up against other top 2yos, I'm not sure that will happen in his next race, though.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 11, 2013 2:23 PM BST
well I had SJH 10lb behind Figure Of Speech so I'm not all that happy with it really. I will have to wait and see what ratings I come out with today before looking back at coventry. I'm sure Figure Of Speech is better than that.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 11, 2013 2:26 PM BST
Something not right about that race with Whalewhrigh station not far behind. Will have to look back at race and sectionals
Report Figgis July 11, 2013 2:30 PM BST
I think with the Coventry, Stevie, like lots of times when there's a wide margin winner, some behind didn't quite run to their optimum. SJH was probably a bit better than the bare form. Plus these lightly raced 2yos can be quite erratic. A fast time can be as much of a hinderance as a blessing. We remember the ones that go on but there are just as many that need time to recover, or never do.
Report Figgis July 11, 2013 2:31 PM BST
Report Sandown July 11, 2013 2:33 PM BST

Just out of curiosity, what did you make of The Fugue in the POW

Well, I have a different interpretation for you to consider. The Fugue put up a better performance imo in the POW than in the Muisidora, so much so that I was not entirely surprised by her run at Sandown. The Ascot run followed a break of 7 months and then 17 days later she runs again. In the paddock at Sandown she looked out-classed by AK and DOW at least in terms of condition. Now, I'm not saying that she did bounce but it is entirely plausible that she did. She was not on my short list at Sandown, for sure, but she ran much worse than expected given she had her ground and her trip. That was not her form.

Forgive me, but no more from me until after racing.
Report Figgis July 11, 2013 2:36 PM BST
Fair enough, I'm sure that wasn't her true running, but still think she's never shown anything to suggest she can compete with colts at the highest level. She is, however, still lightly raced as a 4yo and open to more improvement.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 11, 2013 2:38 PM BST
Jallota I had on 86 for Newmarket maiden and then 77 in coventry. I had Figure of Speech 94+ for his maiden win. So I am quite pleased that Jallota beat SJH as it does seem I may be right with that one in the coventry. Whaleweigh station I only had on 78 for his last run and he's only 2l behind today. So FOS must have run below best today as he beat that one 4l lto
Report Stevie Gerrard July 11, 2013 2:48 PM BST
looking at the last 2f sectionals, I will probably give mark ups of around 9 or 10lb to the winner and figure of speech and less for those up with the pace. I'll wait til they're all up on the turftrax site.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 11, 2013 3:20 PM BST
Maputo impressive there. I think Goodwood Mirage needs 12f with cut.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 11, 2013 3:23 PM BST
track record broken
Report Stevie Gerrard July 11, 2013 4:53 PM BST
not a great overall time from Montiridge there but some quick closing sectionals. 6f maiden pace was quite steady as well. Hopefully this 5f hcap will be truly run. wind 9mph behind I think.
Report Figgis July 11, 2013 5:22 PM BST
Maputo's time, while certainly being good, is another where it is definitely out of step with the rest of the card, imo, even allowing for some of the other races being less than truly run. Unfortunately when this happens the winning time is so exaggerated that it's obvious to all and sundry and often results in the horse being poor value next time.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 11, 2013 5:42 PM BST
well I can't tell for sure but looking at the sectionals that came up on the screen even the 5f race was a little on the steady side. anyway need to do all my ratings and then study tomorrows so will have to get on with it.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 11, 2013 7:20 PM BST
well at least the doncaster races proved easy to rate today and a good figure for muthmir in the maiden. still not sure what allowance to use for newmarket, going to wait for sectionals to appear on turftrax site.
Report mac99 July 11, 2013 7:29 PM BST
Space ship  never in with a chance today , maputo magnificent , what can you say   , had it all  lined up for  a  good bet at Goodwood  , not far off monterosso  , maybe  better  , will they suupplement for the king george ?   120 performance   today , Shall steel myself  for the appearance of crazy faces !!   Goodwood Mirage unlucky to come up against    Mob  pace tactics from Johnston
team ,  gets   ten furlongs  alright
Report Stevie Gerrard July 11, 2013 7:37 PM BST
yes even though they went quite quick both space ship and Goodwood mirage could not make up enough ground from the back, possibly they could both be a bit better. I'm looking at around 111 on my figures for maputo which isn't bad.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 11, 2013 8:42 PM BST

sectionals up now for those interested. im switching off. too much racing
Report mac99 July 12, 2013 7:51 AM BST
Start rant.

backing  Spaceship yesterday was  not wise .  The fear that  WB  would sit well  off the pace  turned out to be the reality  .The Horse  stays a mile  and a half  , he was not badly drawn  in the proper sense of that word ie drawn wide on a turning Track ,   there was little  to be gained  by hold up tactics  he was not a doubtful stayer    nor was the  ground  soft ,  a pace collapse  in the last furlong or so  was improbable

Perhaps some top Jockeys  would benefit from  a few rides over the  Sticks  were  at least on   quick ground such exaggerated waiting  tactics  are seldom employed  , that way instead of the usual   routine  debrief  at the end of a  big race    they might  experience  the  visible  anger   of  connections who  could have done  with the  ten or fifteen grand place money !  ,

Seasoned  professional riders  like  G .Lee and  Johny .Murtagh do not set their mounts  impossible tasks,  neither to be fair does  Dettori  , R.Moor has weaned himself off the practise  and become a great Jockey in doing so    . WB is a great rider with   top of the range  timing and strength in a finnish   but he still  on ocassions   needs to  use a bit of common sense   if he is to stay at the top,    all  imo , the winner   would have  won  whatever tactics  were employed , but that is not the point

end of Pocket talking rantCry did hedge so no great damage done Wink
Report mac99 July 12, 2013 8:08 AM BST

will check out those sectional , should be  revealing
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 8:51 AM BST
yes lots of interrsting sectionals yesterday.

Have a look at the 5f race this compared to last year

Jedward 1st 2f

Last sovereign

Jedward final 2f

Last sovereign final 2f

Final 2f fininishing speed
Jedward 97.36%
Last Sov 104.41%

So can you see how different the pace was in both those
races. Anyway I have done my speed figures and sectional mark ups now and quite happy with them. GL today
Report Figgis July 12, 2013 10:41 AM BST
I expected Sky Lantern to be shorter. On these terms I have her 9lbs in hand of Giofra and 12lbs in hand of Elusive Kate. I've made no allowance for EK improving with age, as there was no sign of it in the Queen Anne. It was her first run of the year so she still might improve but even if she does it's highly unlikely to be as much as 12lbs. A slow pace would reduce the benefit of the weight allowance, nevertheless I'd still make SL much shorter.
Report mac99 July 12, 2013 10:53 AM BST
Burning blaze
I thought   his two length defeat  of Cour  Valant last year was hot  stuff
and  then  very unlucky in running at  At newmarket   in May  gl
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 11:19 AM BST
I have Elusive Kate on a 109 for her sun chariot which included my wfa allowance. Sky Lantern I have on 116. So 7lb difference plus another 3lb as my wfa is diff to bha one. so 10lb diff. But Elusive Kate could get the run of the race and I'm slightly worried SL might take a keen hold. so I may play in-running
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 11:25 AM BST
probably my best bet of the day is Chord Chart in the ascot 6f nursery. I gave him a 70 at wolves plus an 18lb mark up for last 2f which puts him well clear on my ratings. So looks pretty good IF my mark up is correct. I've been steadily backing him all morning.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 11:31 AM BST
of course if my mark up is wrong then he's a bad bet.
Report Sandown July 12, 2013 12:59 PM BST
stevie g

I gave him a 70 at wolves plus an 18lb mark up for last 2f

Be careful with 5f/6f races where because of the smaller relative difference between early furlongs and last 2f, and because sprints are usually fast from the off, I have found that projections using last 2f from these distances can considerably over-estimate potential.
Report Figgis July 12, 2013 1:26 PM BST
How do you rate Rizeena, Stevie? I have her 7lbs clear, although she probably had a fairly hard race at Ascot and this is obviously 1f further.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 1:28 PM BST
cheers sandown I shall bear that in mind.
Actually looking back at it I have him running the last 2
1.3s quicker than archie stevens in the claimer but the last 3 was only slightly quicker. they slowed down between the 3 and the 2 in the maiden with a time there a second slower than archie in the claimer around 12.5 v 13.5. although not that easy to get accurate sectionals.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 1:35 PM BST
well if I used the same allowance at the curragh 6f as I used for the 7 that day then bye bye birdie is 12 lb behind. But I think it could me more like 6 behind if I change allowance. But think Rizeena should be hard to beat Figgis.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 1:38 PM BST
form wise though if you thought Heart Focus ran to her naas form or even her Ascot form then Bye Bye Birdie is going to go close getting 3.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 1:42 PM BST
and of course Queen Catrine could be anything, charlie hills has some really good 2yos this year
Report Figgis July 12, 2013 1:50 PM BST
My mistake, I have her 8lbs clear of Bye Bye Birdie, I think her Ascot run was top class, I don't rate the O'Brien filly too highly.
Report Sandown July 12, 2013 1:54 PM BST
stevie g

Just a little more clarification. IF a fast last 2f in a sprint is linked to a slowish first 3f then the projection can be false  because WHEN it comes to the horse running in a FAST early pace over the same sort of trip, then the horse will be running a reverse pace profile. Hope that helps.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 1:58 PM BST
According to my spreadsheet. purely on my ratings she should 1.23 with bye bye birdie 15.38, 30.75 bar those 2. But I really need to look into changing my formula
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 2:03 PM BST
sorry didn't take off the 3lb penalty. which changes it to 1.42 riz, 7.1 bye bye.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 2:04 PM BST
Thanks Sandown. That does make sense.
Report mac99 July 12, 2013 2:10 PM BST
fabulous looking filly that  Reezena , if they paid out on sheer presence ExcitedGrin
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 2:13 PM BST
well could not have picked that one.
Report mac99 July 12, 2013 2:14 PM BST
but they don't , ground?
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 2:15 PM BST
I wonder if she went off a bit quick in the albany into that headwind
Report Figgis July 12, 2013 2:18 PM BST
Winner was second worst on my figures! Just as well Rizeena was too short for me to back, whereas I'll take that kind of price on an older horse (I have backed Sky Lantern) I always want a bit more value for a 2yo. Some punters apparently specialise in backing 2yos but I find them a bit erratic for my liking. Rizeena stumbled out of the stalls and never looked happy.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 2:19 PM BST
she did finish those last 2f slowly in the albany. I really should have done my sectionals that day
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 2:20 PM BST
although I wouldn't have marked her up enough to get anywhere near Rizeena
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 2:27 PM BST
based on first 2 races I shall be looking at a figure of 106 for Lucky Kristale now. 1lb lower than what I gave to Rizeena at Ascot
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 2:38 PM BST
rubbish that chord guest. actually that sartorious had my best 2ns best speed figure at the weights on the thirsk run. should have had a saver really at that price
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 2:38 PM BST
rubbish that chord guest. actually that sartorious had my best 2ns best speed figure at the weights on the thirsk run. should have had a saver really at that price
Report mac99 July 12, 2013 2:46 PM BST
you put one up Stevie , that is what counts
Report Figgis July 12, 2013 2:47 PM BST
Disappointing to see Hughes content to let the race turn into a sprint finish, nullifying his weight advantage, but I suspected as much when I made the bet, so I knew of the risk.
Report mac99 July 12, 2013 2:47 PM BST
just backed  E kate , same old tactics of veering across course to win , but they all do it now
Report Figgis July 12, 2013 2:49 PM BST
Sorry for the aftertiming Stevie but I had Sartorialist best in, the only trouble is I never backed him Cry
Report mac99 July 12, 2013 2:51 PM BST
I also  am in line for  visit by  AT inspector Whoops done it again
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 2:54 PM BST
I thought after the 1st 1/2 furlong hughes was going to make it but then he dropped back
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 2:56 PM BST
Figgis, i'm not surprised as the thirsk time was good unless like me you downgraded it a touch for being first race on softish ground. thought it may have got chewed up after that.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 2:59 PM BST
you might still get this figgis
Report Figgis July 12, 2013 3:00 PM BST
Yes, Stevie, I thought so too. I think jockeys are often too scared (and tactically naïve) to take control of a race, particularly on a better class horse, when ironically it is on the better horses that they should make use of that speed advantage. Having said that, there is no proof that she'd have won anyway.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 3:04 PM BST
anyone having a bet in the sprint. Secretinthepark has my highest figure for the win in 2000 guineas day. hoping the break since last time sees him return to form
Report Figgis July 12, 2013 3:10 PM BST
No bet for me, Stevie, but I agree with your top rated, that win must've taken a lot out of him, will be interesting to see if he returns to that form.
Report mac99 July 12, 2013 3:12 PM BST
robot boy  and chillworth icon   a couple of likely  ones  at prices  now Burning blaze out gl
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 3:12 PM BST
did you change your going allowance after rain burst that day?
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 3:13 PM BST
gl mac
Report Figgis July 12, 2013 3:18 PM BST
On Guineas day you mean? Yes, I have the ground getting slower from the Guineas onwards, which explains why many rated the Guineas slower than I have it. Actually there's an argument that the 5f race was more wind assisted than the others anyway, as the first race didn't look particularly slowly run to my eyes, however, that's debatable.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 3:21 PM BST
blimey that elusive kate race was slow
Report Stevie Gerrard July 12, 2013 3:27 PM BST
anyway I think we've gone off topic about the eclipse for long enough. time for the thread to drop off the page weighed down with all my losers
Report Fallen Angel July 12, 2013 9:24 PM BST
Personally I don't see anything wrong with Al Kazeem's rating. Again the eclipse was a smart performance, took time to get to the winner but was well in charge at the finish. Some horses will always just do enough to win, it doesn't necessarily mean they aren't very good animals. We will see in the Arc exactly how good but to win three group 1's on the bounce takes a certain toughness which shouldn't be discounted in the horses ability.
Report jair1970 July 12, 2013 11:42 PM BST
This is a good thread, don't give up on it. Sod the Eclipse!  :)
Report Sandown July 14, 2013 1:56 PM BST
Trainer Roger Charlton confirmed he does not intend to run Al Kazeem on fast ground again this season. He said: "He is on his holidays and he's very happy. We've seen a few races this week when horses haven't produced their form on fast ground and that can happen.

"He really wants good or good to soft ground and I don't think I'll get away with running him for a fourth time on really quick ground. Hopefully by August or September we'll have some really nice, fresh ground and he can go for the Juddmonte International or the Irish Champion Stakes.

"There's also the Champion Stakes which is a special race, but the Arc is worth £2.2 million to the winner and he is disputing favouritism for that, so that has to be his main aim."

RP July 14

As I suspected, it seems that the ground was too firm for AK and his antics at the end were mostl likely due to that fact. His performance was very meritorious in the circumstances. Nevertheless, it was yet another hard race and the effects will tell. But I belive that his rating is fair. He could rate higher given ideal conditions - after a long break.
Report Figgis July 14, 2013 2:10 PM BST
I'd have to disagree with Charlton on that. Of AK's 12 races half of them have been on G/F and I've not seen any improvement in his form when it's been slower. Good or slower ground might be better for the horse's legs long term (debatable as softer ground can also be responsible for leg problems) but I doubt that it will allow him to run any faster.
Report Sandown July 14, 2013 2:37 PM BST
AK has improved this year and won three G1's all on GF ground so clearly he will go on fast ground. But its clearly a case of "in spite of" and not "because of" and that is down to the fact that he is a heavy-topped horse who doesn't have a fast ground action. We can credit him with courage in so doing. It's not a case of whether he can run "faster" relatively speaking but a case of doing so more comfortably and possibly with greater reserves as a result. He has to beat other horses not run fast times. We mustn't be blinkered into thinking that's all that matters.
Report Figgis July 14, 2013 2:54 PM BST

I know times are not the be all and end all, I can't see how anyone could hope to profit believing that. I also know that until a horse is beaten we really can't say for sure how good it isn't. However, I also know that sooner rather than later a top horse will run a fast time. The longer a horse goes without achieving a good time performance the more doubtful I become. Especially one that, to me, doesn't look like he has loads in reserve.

The point is that AK is being regarded as a top class horse. In my opinion he hasn't proved he's up to the usual standard I would expect of a multiple Gp1 winner. It all comes down to price. If AK was widely regarded as fluking his wins and priced up accordingly I would be looking for the possibility that he was underrated. As things stand I think he's overrated, so I am only interested in opposing him when I get the chance.

It depends how you play the game. Some people like to try to take something from every race they bet in. Therefore you can make reasoned arguments for why half the field can win and cover them accordingly for a small steady profit. That isn't my approach. While I'm not as gung ho as I used to be years ago, I still like to make a decision and go with it, knowing I'll have my fair share of losers but have confidence that the winners will outweigh the losses.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 14, 2013 3:25 PM BST
Good to read that, he deserves a nice rest and I hope he comes back fresh and well and ready to run to his best with no excuses.

As for the ratings, to me it just exposes the flaws with collateral ratings and race standardisation. Mukhadram 125 is 1lb higher than Snow Fairy and St Nicholas Abbey. Laughable
Report unclepuncle July 14, 2013 3:28 PM BST
Have to agree - AK is nothing more than a decent enough Group 2 horse (115+/-?) to my eyes.
Report Figgis July 14, 2013 4:13 PM BST
Just to emphasise the point about the price influencing the decisions, I backed AK in the Tattersalls. I had him with a 2lb advantage over Camelot. As I don't make automatic adjustments for wfa improvements Camelot still had to prove to me he had improved as a 4yo. For all I knew he could well have done, but I thought AK was a value price in the circumstances. I had AK highest rated in the POW, but even though I couldn't see what would beat him I had him on a lower than average mark for the race and thought he was vulnerable to an improver so decided not to back him. As it turned out this was the wrong decision, but at the price I didn't kick myself too much over it.

It's sometimes difficult to know whether to back your highest rated horse when he's still lower than you'd normally expect the winner to be. One of my big regrets was not backing Benny The Dip in that year's Derby at a big price. Aside from the Guineas winner Entrepreneur, who was unproven further than a mile and imo had looked to have a hard race, BTD was highest rated but not up to average standard. I thought surely something will come along a bit better on the day and was routing for Silver Patriarch on the run in to spare me one of those "if only" moments. BTD prevailed by a torturous short head.

Anyway, back to AK. I again had him narrowly highest rated in a substandard Eclipse but saw no value in his price. I took the view that Declaration Of War didn't have much to find and could probably be a bit better than his Queen Anne run. In hindsight this was obviously wrong, the Queen Anne win is as good as he is and he probably peaked there. At the price he was, though, it's not a bet I regret too much, it wasn't impossible he could've improved again and I've certainly had worse bets. AK might go on to prove he's been fooling me all along, keeping a bit for himself and that he is indeed a proper Gp1 horse. If he does I'll take it on the chin and freely admit I was wrong, as I know that more often when I oppose such horses I'm right.
Report Sandown July 14, 2013 4:32 PM BST

Camelot may be an example of a horse which gets bottomed/has a very hard race and then takes a long time to recover. I believe that the Irish derby win in heavy ground was such a run and the Arc trip just made matters worse. I've often thought this about really gruelling races and their after effect. The Grand national can do it, so can the Arc and the Melbourne Cup especially if a trip is involved.Doubt if they will keep Camelot in training for another season but if they did I wouldn't be surprised if he performed much better.Think of other sports like boxing. Ali and Frazier took a huge amount out of each other after The Thriller in Manilla.They were never the same afterwards.
Report Figgis July 14, 2013 4:50 PM BST
Yes, I completely agree. There is a lot of revisionism going on now about Camelot's Derby, but while not being the very best I've seen it was up with the better ones, certainly better than average. I still believe his Guineas was the worst I've seen over the last few years, but that's not too bad for a horse seen more as a middle distance prospect. In a decent year he might've got a place. I had no financial interest in him for the Derby, so no reason to want to overrate him, but I'm not going to downgrade the performance now just because he's regressed.

This is another important issue we have to deal with every time we see a horse clock a fast time, or a few fast times. On one hand I'm enthusiastic, but then I always have to wonder how much it will have taken out of the horse. Sometimes the fault lies with me and I've overrated a performance, other times it's just that the horse is no longer able to run to that form again, probably because of a physical problem. I'm sure with Camelot it's a case of the latter.
Report Figgis July 20, 2013 12:05 PM BST
As for the Sky Lantern appeal, I think the right decision was reached as far as the rules stand. However, the rules as they stand do absolutely nothing to encourage jockeys to adhere to them and when a big prize is at stake I'd say they actually encourage the opposite.

I thought maybe one good thing that might come out of it was that Hannon and Hughes would reflect on their own (non) tactics in the race and learn from it. But then I saw an interview with Hughes where he said the pace wasn't a factor, so maybe not.
Report pedrobob July 20, 2013 10:41 PM BST
Hughes said before the race if they went no pace, he would lead.
Apparently they were 20 lengths slower at some point compared to 2012 Falmouth.
So they already knew what to do. Unfortunately Hughsie went back on the deal
Report Figgis July 21, 2013 12:28 AM BST
I thought he'd said that too, ped. As I said before, as a punter I knew there was a possibility it might happen but still took the chance, my own fault, but if I'd known for sure Hughes would play the race like that I definitely wouldn't have made the bet.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.


Instance ID: 13539