how will Mubaraza like the going?

final decs anyone?

TAR

Mark Johnstone has Red Orator entered and confirmed at 5day decs - 31 on card with only 20 to run. Still sporting chance he could get into the two 'reserves'. Come the final (two day) decs and Lieutenant Miller (30) is first reserve so second reserve must be Red Orator. But no - the xxxtard has apparently withdrawn him! What is he playing at - does he just enjoy squandering his owners' entry fees/forfeits and putting punters away?!?

NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE NOTES
WEDNESDAY, 25 JUNE 2008
Northumberland Plate Hcp NEWCASTLE Late June
A new experiment here with this race. Gathering other peoples stats and intergrating with own stats is the intention. Sources are Betfair Forum and Racing papers.

Academic Rambler 22 Jun 10:07 (Betfair Forum)

I have a shortlist of the Ascot Stakes mob, Alleviate (won't get in shirley), Bogside Theatre (ground a plus) and....Desert Sea.
The stats knock a lot out, e.g. the Chester Cup crew.
bit tenuous sorry was using the 6-week plus break as a negative, Chester Cup being 7.5 weeks ago.

Juicy 22 Jun 20:21 (Betfair Forum)

The strongest indicators to me appear to be a run within 5 weeks, weight under 9 stone ( 9 of last 10 ) and decent form over 2 miles.

Mirjan, Unleash and Archduke Ferdinand had not shown flat form over 2 miles but had a recent run under the belt, the former two obviously having decent 2 mile form over jumps.
Juniper Girl, Sergeant Cecil and Bay Of Islands had all won Class 3 handicaps, JG and SC having good Class 2 form

Bangalore and Toldo had won class 2 races.

All had a run within 5 weeks of the Plate.

Bukit Tinggi looks to be improving, has a nice weight and, like Juniper Girl last year, showed good form at Ascot the previous week.
BT quickened up in the straight at Ascot but was outstayed. A drop in trip coupled with the Newcastle long straight will suit down to the ground.

Dark Destroyer 23 Jun 17:10 (Betfair Forum

knock out the high draws (although didn't the last year or so tend to disprove that one),




Juicy 23 Jun 18:46
" knock out the high draws "?

After stalls 13 and 16 have produced the last two winners - when Toldo won from stall 16 the first three home were drawn in the top 5 stalls

Charlton2005 24 Jun 18:17

I have Braddocks big race guide (which I am sure most of you know about).
It says that 8 of the 13 winners 1975 to 1988 had run at Royal Ascot.

"This short span of 9 to 11 days for these winners suggests they were at or close to peak fitness at the Royal Ascot meeting which may have given them a vital edge over their rivals for this race"

Also, "All the beaten favs were 1st or 2nd in their previous race"

whereas "only 3 winners were successful in their previous and only two others had prior wins that season"
Can you or anyone else update the numbers from 1989 onwards!

Academic Rambler 24 Jun 18:28
Cyrian 1998 was the last to run in the Chester Cup and win the Pitmans (he ran at Royal Ascot though, finishing 8th). None of the last 9 winners ran in the Chester Cup, period.

A 6-week plus break appears to be a big negative, for reasons perhaps that Charlton has alluded to.

Juicy 24 Jun 19:16

I think every horse in the last ten years has had a run of some description ( jumps / flat ) within 6 weeks of the race.

Juniper Girl ran at Ascot before winning ( same 11 day break as Bukit Tinggi )
Toldo ran at Haydock 3 weeks previous
Sergeant Cecil ran 3 weeks previous

Horses in form, with a run, under 9 stone. After that a preference for those showing form over similar distances.




Muffin Man 23 Jun 18:57 (Betfair Forum 2007)

After a shocker of a week at Ascot punting wise, time to have serious look at Northumberland Plate.
Geordieland a likely non-runner, weights should go up 8lbs, with Sentry Duty likely to carry it, as Scriptwriter won't be running imo.

Trends for the race include...

Positives
4yos
Carrying 8st 11lbs or less
Drawn in stalls 1 to 7
Raced in less than a dozen handicaps
Trained by George Moore, Amanda Perrett, Rod Millman, James Fanshawe or any dual purpose trainer
Ran well in Queens Vase or Ascot Stakes

Negatives
Aged nine+
Double fig draw
Trained by Johnston/Stoute
Out of the first 3 in most recent start
Off the track for longer than 6 weeks
Unproven over one mile six furlongs
Hold up performers

Mystic Wind 26 Jun 08:31 (2007)

None of the last 5 winners had run at Royal Ascot, but 7 of the previous 14 had. York's June meeting (abondoned this year) has also supplied a few winners. In fact none of the last 19 winners had a break of more than 6 weeks coming into this race.


platinni 26 Jun 17:34 (2007)

there were 5 Plus 9 stone winners; 4 of them were on firm ground and the other was Bangalore in a false run muddling race. i think thats a very strong trend?

trev w 26 Jun 17:40 (2007)

lowest rated winner in last 10 yrs was 85,thats winged and above.

Far From Trouble 25 Jun 15:33
Ok, had a look at the stats for the past 20 years and this is what I have come up with:

Only 2 of the last 20 winners have been rated less than 85 (one at 73 the other at 69) This eliminates Bentley Brook and everything from Bollin Derek and downwards (Amerigo, Tignabreuch, and Donegal rated greater than 85, but all extremely unlikely to get in so they are left out)

Only 2 of the last 20 winners have been rated over 100 (one at 105 the other at 104) This eliminates Eastern Anthem, Tungsten Strike, Carte Diamond and Ajaan

Only 3 of the last 20 winners aged 7+ so out goes Colloquial, Greenwich Meantime, Kasthari, Mudawin, Inchnadamph, Akarem and Arc Bleu

16 of the last 20 winners had previously won at distance of 14f+, so out goes Far From Old, Pippa Greene, Tilt, Bogside Theatre, and Spring City

16 of the last 20 winners had had a run within 21 days of the race. Out goes Highland Legacy, Double Banded, Halla San and Rationale
This leaves:
Lost Soldier Three
Gee Dee Nen
Whispering Death
Bukit Tinngi
Desert Sea
Missoula

Of these the stand out horse for me is Gee Dee Nen. His win at Haydock was boosted by Acropolis (in 3rd) running a fine race when 3rd to Birkside next time out and Missoula winning at Ascot. Missoula is now 2lbs worse off with Gee Dee Nen.

Bukit Tinngi could still be ahead of the handicapper after his creditable run at Ascot and the step back to 2m will be ideal for him.

Desert Sea has gone up 10lb for his win last time out and that may just be enough to stop him winning here
Lost Soldier Three is very much on the downgrade and I can't see him winning here
Whispering Death ran well last tiem out but this is very competitive and I just can't see him winning here.

My bets:
Gee Dee Nen 1pt e/w at 14-1 Bukit Tinngi 1pt win at 7-1

trev w 25 Jun 15:54
12 carried a penalty in last 10 yrs no winners..


My Stats – The Racing Detective
Stats applicable to this years runners.

Chester Cup previous run No winners from 12 qualifiers going back to 1995 and certainly no winner since 1983.

No Ascot Stakes Hcp winner has won in last 25 years. Seven qualifiers have run with 3 finishing 2nd.

Only one 5yo has won the race in last 25 years.
There have been 17 winner on last run 5yo's in last 25 yrs that contested a total of 15 Northumberland Plate races. None won.

There were 21 who finished in first four placings in Ascot Stakes since 1985 who ran in Northumberland. That figure covers 19 races .
Resulted in 2 winners (both 2nd in Ascot race) and 4 seconds - usually the winner at Ascot.
Two unplaced horses in Ascot stakes have won - reversing form with placed horses- from 37 qualifiers.

And finally horses that finished 4th in Ascot Stakes Hcp and ran in Northumberland Plate finished 00000000. (eight in total) Bukit Tinggi 4th this year

So all you fans of
Missoula, Far From Old, Gee Dee Nen, Desert Sea, Highland Legacy,
Double Banded, Tilt, Inchnadamph and Bukit Tinngi may wish to revise your bets.


For the Draw considerations I consider that the going is a key factor in any draw analysis.
25 years
Heavy (2 races) 13, 20. generally high by winners and 3rds having high numbers but the 2nds were low.

Soft (2 races) 5, 2. Definitely low by winners and places

Good to Soft (1 race) 1. The only time the lowest number has won in 25 yrs and the 2nd was drawn 2 indicating very low - similar to Soft going results.

Good (3 races) 7, 6, 3. Generally low with only one high number in placings.

Good to Firm (8 races) 16, 9, 20, 9, 9, 7, 3, 20. Generally medium to high. 1989 produced the low number winner & 2nd but from the 24 placings of these 8 races only 8 were in the first 5 draw. The higher figures are greater emphasis considering most of these races had reduced field size from the normal 20 runners.

Firm (9 races) 17, 4, 7, 5, 4, 7, 3, 6, 7. medium to low because the maximum field size was not reached in any of these races. Only 4 of the 27 placings in these were high numbers.

Most winners of this have won at either Ascot, Newbury, York with Ripon and Doncaster as supporting tracks and normally duplicated to the first three.
You get the odd result (4 hurdlers have won) but generally the trends for this race are about 60 to 65% in favour of stats.

RESULT
1st ARC BLEU 14/1 (was 6/1 in early pre race day betting drifted on day as high as 22/1 on betfair)
2nd Halla San 16/1
3rd Bogside Theatre 10/1
4th Akarem 50/1

Backed all the first four and Mudawin (7th) to small stakes.
£22 on winner at varying prices from 12 to 22/1 providen a £210 profit on race against a £65 outlay.
REVIEW
The stats were pretty good this year knocking out the main contenders.
The low draw assisted in support for the winner (drawn 5 after withdrawals) and 3rd was drawn 4.
Course winners finished 2nd & 3rd

Some other postings from the Forum.
Beaten Fav stats.
Age Win-Place-Runners
3yo 0-0-1
4yo 1-4-21
5yo 1-4-11
6yo 0-0-3
7yo 0-0-4
8yo 0-0-2
9yo 0-0-1     

Only Highland Legacy 4yo - this year

Stevie Gerrard 27 Jun 13:17
'And finally horses that finished 4th in Ascot Stakes Hcp and ran in Northumberland Plate finished 00000000. (eight in total)'
I find stats like that totally pointless.
(Bukit Tinggi unplaced - I rest my case)

Pinza 27 Jun 20:38 (aka The Racing Detective)
Regarding Martins horse. It won a valuable hcp (£44K) comfortably and has run over hurdles. A few (5) hurdlers have won Northumberland and 8 have won off very low or bottom weights in past 25 years.
Nothing is standing out on stats this year so I'm going for another high priced hurdler with a couple of quid on Martins.


Charlton2005 27 Jun 20:43
Pinza
On the ratings though it seems to be miles behind - 10 lbs or so over this distance is about 10-12 lengths.
I am a layer of the top few but not huge stakes (like I laid HTN and Yeats at RA!!)
Good Luck and thanks for sharing the info.

Preview & Review Update on Northumberland Plate 2010
The short list for race and comments.
Chiberta King (10th) – Never ran beyond 14f and unusual jockey booking.
Stanstill (4th)– Hit a purple patch last year but two efforts in maidens at track.
Overturn (WON) – Hurdler with 3 wins like Unleash 2003.
Deauville Flyer (5th)– Has a lot in its favour and only concern is that it hasn’t run in a valuable race yet. Three penalty carriers have won in last 26 years.
Aaim To Prosper (8th) – Good run at Ascot and bottom weight with 5lb claimer aboard. Jockey hasn’t ridden for Meehan and has only ridden one long distance race winner (14f+). A concern over draw
REVIEW
The winner suitably named as the low draw theory was thrown out of the window again this year. I am not really convinced over the low draw aspect anyway as in fields of 15 or more data shows;
draw 1 to 5 = 9 wins
draw 6-10 = 5 wins
draw 11-15 = 1 win
draw 16+ = 6 wins (with highest draw winning on 4 occasions)
3yo’s and older horses 6 & 7 years old feature 5 times in high draw.
The highest draw winners were on Good to Firm, Firm and Heavy going.
The theory about the weight 8-11 and below is another that is not absolute as 7 above 9-0 stone have won. The only two 5yo winners were high weights.
Hurdlers have won 7 races since 1988 (23 races) a near 30% strike rate
Overturn followed Tamarpour and Unleash who both won 3 hurdle races on trot in current year prior to Northumberland Plate. Mirjan had also won 3 hurdle races in 2000 and had won a total of 7 hurdles prior to his 33/1 surprise win 2004.
Around 13 past winners came from Royal Ascot, varying races from handicaps to Gold Cup.
Cover Up and Zero Watt both won at Ascot and were beaten in photo finishes in Plate and only Windsor Castle (3yo) won at Ascot (Vase) so have the feeling that the penalty may stop back to back wins for 4yo’s and upwards. Juniper Girl, Far Cry and Tarmapour all 2nd at Ascot support that theory.
Also the theory about runs in valuable races worked against the fav Deauville Flyer. The Plate is the most valuable handicap race in Brittain so the winner needs to have tested the water in similar company and the value of previous race runs shows that. The 3yo’s and lightly raced 4yo’s do not always fit this category.
Toldo was the only winner (data from 1988) that started his career over 5f. Two more winners started as sprinters over 6f but the bulk of 20 winner started from 7f to 12f.

Looks like the ground is already on the soft side. Another case of the clerk of the course ruining a good meeting.

forecast till 4.00pm.rip up your good ground fancies and dig out the grinders.national hunt trainers won last 3.mr henderson?

Does anyone else think Noble Alan has a massive chance tomorrow?

Looks sure to be soft for the big race 2moro
Will be no great surprise to see a few of the fancied runners taken out because of the ground .

Official going is g/s for 2moro. Looked to be slower than that 2nite (soft)
Think its to be dry over night & 2moro, so prob be g/s come race time 2moro.

Not a strong betting race for me, but i think Mashaari is interesting, bought out of John Gosdens yard, has form in the soft, has won over 2m2f and is lightly raced.

Throw in that its well weighted and trined by a very shrew Geordie in the shape of Brian Ellison.

Had a small bet for an interest.

Good luck everyone.

With Tiger out real shame about Miller not getting a run with the ground changing.

Tom ? Facts

Yep

Times today would suggest good ground so I'm on Mubaraza!

nice one facts

Dont know why you found my post funny Facts ? So Some tipster put it it up, how the fook am i supposed to know when im up going through races at stupid o clock in the morning ?

Any way i dont read what tipsters put up, i prefer my own oppinion, you seem a **** that likes to take the piss, so fook u.

Well done on your pick by the way.

I wont bother posting on here again.

Hope your happy, eventually, when you have been rude to everyone, you can have a thread/forum all to youself.