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@clay davis. You obviously haven't read the of the thread. As stated already I think the horse will win, I have back it heavily ante-post. However I have to agree that there are some questions to answer which would need a yes before backing at even. I am trying to look at every angle. However as stated numerous times on here, I think the horse will win I have backed it accordingly
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It was the comment about translating his dirt form to turf. His turf form is good enough to win this easily. His run behind Wise Dan is arguable his best ever run
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yes I noted the run in the breeders cup in the intro. The time in that race is breath taking. It marks him as potentially a real world class animal. I agree this is the huge question about the rest of field in this race as none of them have show that propensity of class.
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about the price, innit? If I'd backed him at 5/2,11/4 which was around about the price when Farhh was still in the race then I'd be pretty content with life.
Not at odds on though, lengthening now but 8/11,4/5 in places when I made my comments. He might do the same to this field that Farhh did to a lot of 'em in the Lockinge. But Farhh was 5/1 that day. |
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Yeah that is a fair point. I laid a decent chunk at 1.91 this morning to knock the stake out and a bit on top. I'm normally sitting on some kind of ante-post gamble that gets taken on in the morning and this looked like another one where the bookies were going to go evens in the morning. I wouldn't be surprised if there was some 5/4 about from lads or hills. he might even drift further. Half the time its not about identifying the winner but identifying how the trading of the big firms will impact the price you take.
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they've just said on ATR that one of those firms will go 5/4 tomorrow morning - Ladbrokes, I think (was only half listening).
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interesting i just checked Kate millers twitter and they are enhancing four of the big ones at RA, i would imagine AK will be one.
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The form of the British and Irish runners doesn't look up to scratch this year but I'm not sure Animal Kingdom is that far in front of them. A 2 length win (admittedly comfortable) over an ageing Red Cadeaux isn't brilliant Gp1 form. Wise Dan aside, I'm not convinced the Breeders Cup Mile form is all that, Obviously doesn't look quite top class and, imo, Excelebration was a bit below par. It's still the best form on show and he's a deserved favourite but I don't think he should be so short, he might well prove he's a class above but he's not a betting proposition in my eyes.
I'm having a few quid on Gregorian. He needs to improve on what he's shown but I think he could still be progressing. I thought his latest win was his best effort yet, the bare form is somewhat below what will be required here but I really liked the way he ran his race. They didn't go that quick early and he looked to me like he could've gone a bit faster if needed, there's a possibility that the way the race was run didn't allow him to show his true superiority. In a race where likely improvers look thin on the ground he's a fair price. |
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Didn't AK have a shocking draw in Dubai as well?
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A tricky race this...have been racking my brains trying to get this horse beat...
having had it off on wise dan in last years breeders and followed him through his career i personally felt he ran below his woodbine form in the mile and still won...i adjusted his rating to 123 that day compared with his supreme woodbine romp 128+ and with that i only had animal kingdom at 120 in which i thought was his best turf run but the race itself was a mess and he shouldn't be upgraded to much... his run in another weak looking world cup was nothing special and red cadeaux holds the form down as does side glance just an average grade 2 horse over here. it looked like a good grade 2 on paper to me but he himself was the only proven grade 1 horse who turned up anyway harping on but for me i have animal as a ceiling horse on turf whom will struggle to achieve a much higher rating than 119-120 on turf over a mile... but the problem still remains who can run to a figure borderline of 120 in order to beat him i was keen on elusive kate but have missed the price and wanted a price to find out if she has trained on anyway don't like the simcock horse and aljamaheer whom i respect in this just doesn't seem that willing so am going to go against my beliefs and back the o'brien horse who i just cannot have running his race last time and whom i slated pre race in the lockinge... he is the only horse who i see being able to improve to being able to run to 120 and put it up to animal kingdom...think he may well be ridden differently and will prefer the ground less fast...penitent is worth a small mention in the place market but for me it will only be small stakes here as feel the horse i have come up with is a risky proposition and respect animal kingdom in what is a weak renewal of the queen anne...whatever happens its great they have turned up for the challenge as the race needs him and he will take some beating as is a top class colt |
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Gregorian & Elusive Kate are the 2 for me who could topple Animal Kingdom.
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@harry callagham interesting that you have wise dan running so below form considering the speed figure on the race
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fallen angel...
yes i did consider the speed figure but for me the track rode like a road as the track record was also broken in the turf sprint the same evening from average horses...the proximity of obviously who ran third that evening who i don't consider in the same league as wise dan said to me it was just workmanlike from wise dan just an opinion you obviously thought it was better as did other speed figure fans, i didn't... |
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Harry - they went quite slow in the first quarter in the BC Mile and still broke the track record and still post an excellent speed figure. I like that. The 3rd got the run of the race in front and an easy lead on slow fractions - after the first quarter they just kept quickening and quickening and quickening. Animal Kingdom was still the last horse off the bridle. I like the Breeders Cup Mile form a lot.
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i'm not knocking the form clay just saying i didn't give it the figure that others did because of how the track was riding on the night
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If Excelebration was in this race I'd have no qualms about lumping him but for Animal Kingdom it's a different day, different course, different country. Much like the lockinge I don't think there is a genuine group 1 miler in this field bar the favourite. I don't see any form to justify the hype of DOA. Elusive Kate has that one good group one run in france but the rest of her form amounts to group 2/3 level imo. Trade Storm ran well in Dubai but he most likely had "assistance" and I've seen a lot of daubai form not translate over here. Red Cadeaux for instance since you mentioned him.
Gregorian has form in weak group ones and will have to improve and Bick prefers the filly. |
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I think Trumpet Major may be worth chancing at the prices. I know he has become a little inconsistent but he does have some form which would give him place chances here, if not win if the favourite does under perform.
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Is the far side high or low stall numbers?
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nm it's high
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the stands rail is high hope this helps
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What? Says the opposite on what I found.
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The far side is now the side of LOW numbers, the BHA changed how the draw is announced and have regulated for ALL courses.
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DOW's going to take the world of beating in the Classic imo. fort larned, oxbow, verrazano and orb aint got sh*t on him.
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