Horse Antepost
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After some unpredictable results in 2009 (Ghanaati), 2011 (Blue Bunting) and 2012 (Homecoming Queen), the reputation of the 1000 Guineas as a good 'trends race' for antepost punters (with most winners of the race having already shown smart form in pattern company as juveniles) was restored this year by the victory of Sky Lantern, who had won at Group 1 level as a two-year-old. It may seem a bit early to be setting up a new thread on next year's race, but it is worth noting that 13 of the last 24 winners of the race had already made their racecourse debut by the end of June in their two-year-old season (5 of the last 11 winners of the race had made their juvenile debut by the end of May), e.g. Attraction (29 April 2003), Finsceal Beo (23 April 2006), Natagora (1 May 2007), Homecoming Queen (30 April 2011), Sky Lantern (24 May 2012).
Here's a list of the top fillies so far this season (up to 22 May, with their Racing Post Ratings, Timeform rating where known in brackets, and form figures):
92 Sandiva (R.Fahey) -1
91 (98p) Beldale Memory (C.Cox) -11
90 (91p) Fast (R.Hannon) -1
89 Heart Focus (J.Bolger) -231
88 (86p) Bye Bye Birdie (A.O'Brien) -2
87 Alutiq (E.Johnson Houghton) -131
Sandiva looked an above average prospect when scooting away with a modest maiden race at Nottingham recently and, being by a Guineas winner out of a mare that won at up to 11f, she looks sure to improve when stepped up in trip. Beldale Memory, who has already earned some black type after readily winning the Marygate Stakes (Listed) at York on her second start, looks sure to make her mark in pattern company this season but is speedily bred (by Camacho out of a 5f winner by Primo Dominie) and unlikely to stay a mile. Richard Hannon has already sent out several winning two-year-old fillies this season, the most impressive of which was the aptly-named Fast, who showed blistering speed to burn off her rivals at Chepstow first time out. None of the speedy Hannon-trained fillies I have seen on the track this season strike me as possible Guineas types. The only filly that has really caught my eye so far this season is Bye Bye Birdie, narrowly beaten on debut at Naas in a maiden race which Aidan O'Brien has used to introduce some of his best fillies in recent seasons:
2012 Delight (6th, beaten 10 lengths)
2011 Maybe (1st, won by 4½ lengths) RPR 92
2010 Together (3rd, beaten 4½ lengths) RPR 71
2009 Lillie Langtry (2nd, beaten 2½ lengths) RPR 80
2008 Heart Shaped (3rd, beaten 3½ lengths) RPR 80
Last year's representative was well beaten and ultimately proved disappointing, but Aidan's four previous runners all turned out to be high class performers at around a mile. Bye Bye Birdie showed considerable promise first time out, showing a good cruising speed and coming to win her race before being worried out of it close home by the more experienced Jim Bolger-trained winner Heart Focus. The winner and runner-up both hold entries in the Gr.2 Railway Stakes and the Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes and Bye Bye Birdie, who will appreciate faster ground than she encountered at Naas, looks nailed on for a maiden (she is scheduled to run at the Curragh today) before going on to much better things in the future. She is bred to get a mile next season: she is by Oasis Dream (like Aidan's Irish 2000 Guineas winner Power) out of Slink (by Selkirk), an unraced sister to Prix Marcel Boussac winner Sulk and half-sister to top-class 10-12f performer Eagle Mountain, very useful miler Wallace (Gr.3 placed) and 8-9f winner (including Gr.3) Dank. At Naas she looked a nice sort of filly, with scope for improvement. I'll be surprised if she fails to make her mark in pattern company. I have taken 33/1 for the Guineas (not a great price, considering Maybe was the same price after winning the same Naas maiden by 4½ lengths a couple of years ago!). She should win comfortably this afternoon (unless there is a really smart sort among the newcomers).
Here's a list of the top fillies so far this season (up to 22 May, with their Racing Post Ratings, Timeform rating where known in brackets, and form figures):
92 Sandiva (R.Fahey) -1
91 (98p) Beldale Memory (C.Cox) -11
90 (91p) Fast (R.Hannon) -1
89 Heart Focus (J.Bolger) -231
88 (86p) Bye Bye Birdie (A.O'Brien) -2
87 Alutiq (E.Johnson Houghton) -131
Sandiva looked an above average prospect when scooting away with a modest maiden race at Nottingham recently and, being by a Guineas winner out of a mare that won at up to 11f, she looks sure to improve when stepped up in trip. Beldale Memory, who has already earned some black type after readily winning the Marygate Stakes (Listed) at York on her second start, looks sure to make her mark in pattern company this season but is speedily bred (by Camacho out of a 5f winner by Primo Dominie) and unlikely to stay a mile. Richard Hannon has already sent out several winning two-year-old fillies this season, the most impressive of which was the aptly-named Fast, who showed blistering speed to burn off her rivals at Chepstow first time out. None of the speedy Hannon-trained fillies I have seen on the track this season strike me as possible Guineas types. The only filly that has really caught my eye so far this season is Bye Bye Birdie, narrowly beaten on debut at Naas in a maiden race which Aidan O'Brien has used to introduce some of his best fillies in recent seasons:
2012 Delight (6th, beaten 10 lengths)
2011 Maybe (1st, won by 4½ lengths) RPR 92
2010 Together (3rd, beaten 4½ lengths) RPR 71
2009 Lillie Langtry (2nd, beaten 2½ lengths) RPR 80
2008 Heart Shaped (3rd, beaten 3½ lengths) RPR 80
Last year's representative was well beaten and ultimately proved disappointing, but Aidan's four previous runners all turned out to be high class performers at around a mile. Bye Bye Birdie showed considerable promise first time out, showing a good cruising speed and coming to win her race before being worried out of it close home by the more experienced Jim Bolger-trained winner Heart Focus. The winner and runner-up both hold entries in the Gr.2 Railway Stakes and the Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes and Bye Bye Birdie, who will appreciate faster ground than she encountered at Naas, looks nailed on for a maiden (she is scheduled to run at the Curragh today) before going on to much better things in the future. She is bred to get a mile next season: she is by Oasis Dream (like Aidan's Irish 2000 Guineas winner Power) out of Slink (by Selkirk), an unraced sister to Prix Marcel Boussac winner Sulk and half-sister to top-class 10-12f performer Eagle Mountain, very useful miler Wallace (Gr.3 placed) and 8-9f winner (including Gr.3) Dank. At Naas she looked a nice sort of filly, with scope for improvement. I'll be surprised if she fails to make her mark in pattern company. I have taken 33/1 for the Guineas (not a great price, considering Maybe was the same price after winning the same Naas maiden by 4½ lengths a couple of years ago!). She should win comfortably this afternoon (unless there is a really smart sort among the newcomers).
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Well, there is no denying that Bye Bye Birdie was disappointing there at the Curragh. She looked like she would win comfortably (traded at 1.02 in running) but whether through greenness or jockey error she started to idle in front and got collared on the line. Tap Dancing finished 7 lengths behind her at Naas but finished much closer this time, so it looks like she hasn't progressed from that very promising debut run. I won't tear up my antepost vouchers just yet: Aidan's juvenile fillies tend to progress well with racing and she could yet develop into a pattern class filly.
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Michael Halford, trainer of Glassatura: "She's very smart and has shown us a lot at home. I thought she might need the run but she's come to hand quickly." So perhaps it wasn't quite such a disappointing performance from Bye Bye Birdie after all, perhaps she just ran into a very smart filly. Both fillies will be worth following.
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It's never too early for you to fire up the 1000 Guineas thread James
 . I was quite taken with Kiyoshi who won her maiden at Goodwood last week, having previously ran in fourth place in the hot Fire Break maiden at HQ.Owned by Qatar Racing ( only a matter of time before they win an English classis with their level of investment ) and reportedly well regarded at home by the Hills camp, she is being aimed at the Albany Stakes |
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I liked Kiyoshi on debut, Spencer gave her a kind ride alright and she looked the best horse in the race IMO, she's won since, she goes to Ascot & she's owned by the new Classic contenders on the block.
Certainly one to keep a close eye on. |
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Thought that was a taking performance from Joyeuse, interestin to see her next time
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14s is ridiculous mind
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It was a decent performance but on the face of it, a very poor race.
But I've taken a little of the 25s. Newmarket has really been talking up this horse for the last month, much more than either of Frankel's other siblings since. I think this was also the race Cecil introduced Chachamaidee though not 100% sure. A decent filly could not be in better hands Clearly has stacks still to prove so not getting carried away. |
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Royal Ascot next for her. I didn't see the run but apparently she was wearing a cross noseband or something.
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She wore a hood sint which I admit is slightly disconcerting.
I've watched it a couple of times since and whilst she hasn't got his stride, she seemed to race with a level of exuberance that was similar.. |
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I wouldn't even begin to compare her to Frankel Roo. We'll never see a horse like him again.
I've seen the race now. She was impressive but nothing out of the ordinary imo. |
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i wonder what price she would have been if she wasn't frankel's sibling? a two year lingfield winner on debut,wearing a hood.
Not knocking her performance but some of the quotes are laughable,at this moment in time |
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Of course we won't sint and apologies if you think I was. Just one characteristic was similar, but I accept that could be because she was running against trees.
All AP pricing is to an extent ludicrous and trust me its a small bet but Juddmonte families are amongst the best for providing group class winners from the same dam. At this stage breeding must surely play a part into calculations as to whether a horse has pretensions for a classic. Connections tend to try and temper hype on the whole but it is very clear that she is very well regarded. What that turns into could be a puff of smoke |
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Sure get the breeding angle. Good luck sir! I had wondered where you had got to!
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I too was very taken with the debut of Joyeuse on Tuesday evening and felt that the 25s on offer for the Guineas (up to Wednesday morning) was a very fair price indeed (16s is now the top price, thanks to all the hype, and she is even as short as 12s in places). The use of a hood first time out is a little bit of a worry and I guess there might even be a slight doubt about her getting a mile, as she is by Oasis Dream (whereas her champion half-brother Frankel was by Galileo and her useful middle distance siblings Noble Mission and Bullet Train were by Galileo and Sadler's Wells respectively). The form is almost certainly nothing to shout about, but the style of victory was very promising indeed and she should be even better suited by faster ground.
I'm not at all worried by the fact that she was making her debut at lowly Lingfield, since Henry's two previous winners of the race were both very smart fillies. The last time he won the equivalent race was in 1991 with Musicale, who scored by 4 lengths on debut and went through her two-year-old season unbeaten, culminating with an easy victory in the Rockfel Stakes. On her three-year-old reappearance Musicale won the Fred Darling Stakes and was then sent off favourite for the 1000 Guineas, finishing unplaced behind Hatoof (possibly failed to get the mile). Two years earlier Henry won the same maiden race with Chimes Of Freedom, who scored by 6 lengths on debut and later won the Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes (by 6 lengths) and was a close third in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes. She flopped on her three-year-old reappearance in the Fred Darling Stakes but bounced back to win the Gr.1 Coronation Stakes by 5 lengths. For me, therefore, it is a good omen that Henry used this Lingfield maiden in which to introduce the highly regarded Joyeuse. It is highly unusual for me to have backed two fillies for next season's Guineas before the end of May. The O'Brien filly Bye Bye Birdie surprisingly failed to progress from her debut (most of the stable's juvenile fillies tend to improve significantly for their debut run) and now has quite a lot to prove. Joyeuse has made a very promising start and it will be interesting to see whether Henry keeps her to 6f this season or steps her up in trip. There have been a number of other promising maiden winners in the last few days, notably Kiyoshi (should stay a mile), Red Lady, Glassatura and Kaiulani. Next Monday's Listed race at Naas should be worth watching: entries include Sandiva, Glassatura and Heart Focus; Aidan O'Brien has entered six unraced fillies, including the superbly bred Adeste Fideles, Bracelet (full sister to Wading) and Terrific (full sister to Together); Richard Hannon, who won last year's renewal with Sky Lantern, has three entries. |
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Sandiva was an impressive winner of the Listed 6f contest for fillies at Naas this afternoon, showing a high cruising speed before staying on well in the final furlong to pull clear of the runner-up. The winning time was 1.64s faster than the time achieved by Stubbs in the sluggishly-run colts' race half an hour earlier; it was slightly faster than the winning time achieved by Lillie Langtry (on similarly good to firm ground) in the same race four years ago. The form has a solid look to it: the runner-up Heart Focus (beaten 2 lengths) narrowly beat the well-touted Bye Bye Birdie last time out over course and distance; the third Fig Roll (beaten 6½ lengths by the winner), stablemate of last year's winner Sky Lantern, showed a lot of promise when beating previous winners at Salisbury last time; the fourth Glassatura, finishing just ahead of a regally-bred O'Brien-trained newcomer, is highly regarded and narrowly beat Bye Bye Birdie at the Curragh on debut; the sixth Corncockle had shown plenty of speed when landing a Newmarket 6f maiden on her second start. The Gr.3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot was mentioned as a possible next target, but if she were mine I would be inclined to step her straight up to Gr.2 company and go for the Cherry Hinton Stakes at Newmarket. Looking further ahead, she looks likely to get a mile next season: she is by the 2000 Guineas winner Footstepsinthesand (best offspring to date Chachamaidee, Gr.1 winner over a mile), out of Miss Corinne (by Mark Of Esteem out of 10-12f performer Percy's Girl), who won at up to 11f in Italy. She looks a very smart filly in the making.
This was by far the best performance by a two-year-old filly so far this season and not surprisingly the pre-race quotes of 33/1 for the Guineas were quickly revised down to a top price of 20/1, though she is now as short as 14/1 and 16/1 in places. I have availed myself of the 20/1 and added her to my portfolio. I never expected to have three fillies in the portfolio at this early stage of the season, so I just hope it's not a case of my judgement going awry!! The running of Heart Focus in second gives me hope that Bye Bye Birdie will prove to be a lot better than her second run (behind Glassatura) suggests... |
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Interesting some see a hood on Joyeuse as a negative? Only piece of headgear I don't mind seeing personally. Essentially do the same job as earplugs which also have had plenty of positive results. If you can prevent a horse from using up nervous energy pre race and during it by blocking out noise it's only a positive for me.
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Interesting maiden on Friday at Newmarket which should throw up a decent filly. Some good looking fillies on paper and was won by brilliant Albany winner Newfangled last season. At the moment in terms of the Guineas Joyeuse the only one to taken my eye in terms of classic potential but that's probably down to her pedigree combined with winning well in a weak maiden. Hopefully see a bit more about her at Ascot. Wonderfully winning on debut is also interesting as not many AOB fillies seem to do so first time out. Obviously being a sister to Mars she catches the eye on paper also.
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I agree that the fillies' maiden at Newmarket tomorrow should be worth watching. Interesting that MB rides a newcomer for Saeed Bin Suroor in preference to Ihtimal, who showed promise on debut at Goodwood (when second to Kiyoshi). The Gosden, Hannon, Hills and Cecil newcomers obviously command respect. James Tate's newcomer Lamar is interesting too: she's by Cape Cross out of Deveron (placed in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac) and holds an entry for the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes.
The ratings experts have taken a shine to Sandiva's performance at Naas on Monday: she has been given a Racing Post Rating of 105, which is the joint-best rating achieved in that Naas Listed contest since its inception in 2003. Timeform were even more impressed, giving her a rating of 108p and describing her as an "exciting prospect". It's interesting to set her Naas performance in context with other winners of the race: 2003 Miss Childrey RPR 87 (won by ½l) 2004 Damson RPR 104 (won by 2l, 1½l; later won Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes and Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes) 2005 Rumplestiltskin RPR 103 (won by 1½l; later won Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes and Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac) 2006 Brazilian Bride RPR 100 (won by 2l, hd) 2007 You'resothrilling RPR 95 (won by 1l, 1¼l; later won Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes) 2008 Cuis Ghaire RPR 105 (won by 3½l, 2l; later runner-up in the 1000 Guineas) 2009 Lillie Langtry RPR 99 (won by 2½l, nk; later won Gr.2 Debutante Stakes, won two Gr.1 races at three) 2010 Radharcnafarraige RPR 99 (won by 3l, 2½l) 2011 Teolane RPR 101 (won by 2½l, 2l) 2012 Sky Lantern RPR 102 (won by ½l, 3l; later won Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, won the 1000 Guineas this year) 2013 Sandiva RPR 105 (won by 2½l, 4l) Sandiva's winning time at Naas (1m 10.26s) was one of the fastest achieved in the race, bettered only by Cuis Ghaire (1m 9.30s), Brazilian Bride (1m 9.80s) and Rumplestiltskin (1m 10.20s) in the days before they produced times to the nearest hundredth of a second (hand-held times?). Clive Brittain's Rizeena takes high rank following her 3 lengths win in the National Stakes (Listed) at Sandown. The highly regarded daughter of Iffraaj is clearly a speedy type and was allowed an uncontested lead at Sandown, so it remains to be seen whether she can build on that performance over longer trips against better opposition. Bye Bye Birdie has been entered for all-gender maiden at the Curragh on Sunday. Here's a list of the top fillies so far this season (up to 3 June, with their Racing Post Ratings, Timeform rating where known in brackets, and form figures): 105 (108p) Sandiva (R.Fahey) -11 99 Heart Focus (J.Bolger) -2312 96 (100) Rizeena (C.Brittain) -511 92 (91p) Fast (R.Hannon) -1 91 (98p) Beldale Memory (C.Cox) -11 88 (86p) Bye Bye Birdie (A.O'Brien) -22 |
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Isn't it a negative that they need one in the first place though Masterminded? That's the way I look at it. I don't mind it so much if it is a one off.
Have to ask the question .. who will train Joyeuse now after the sad loss of Sir Henry Cecil? I was really taken with Sandiva, too. I've no idea what price she is for next seasons Classic but suspect if anyone else trainer her she'd be a few points shorter. |
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Sandiva is the one I really like for the Guineas at this very early stage, but she could face quite a stiff test next time if Richard Fahey takes up the option of running her in the Gr.3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, as it has been mooted as a possible next race for Joyeuse, Kiyoshi and Wedding Ring (among others). I took 20s Sandiva for the Guineas after the Naas race and she was top price 16s when I last checked prices (as short as 12s with Koral). I'm not a great fan of the Albany Stakes (as a stepping-stone for potential Guineas fillies) and would prefer it if Fahey gave a short break before getting her ready for either the Cherry Hinton (sorry, the Duchess of Cambridge!!) or the Lowther and then the Cheveley Park Stakes (or the Moyglare Stud Stakes if he wants to try her at 7f this year).
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"gave her a short break"...
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Rizeena continues to progress nicely and won yesterday's Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes in the style of a filly that should continue to make her mark in top sprint races this season. The winning time (59.29s) was fast, reflecting the strong early pace, but times generally were fast yesterday and it was still slightly slower than the times achieved by Ceiling Kitty last year (59.18s) and Maqaasid in 2010 (59.17s). I'm not convinced that it was a strong renewal of the Queen Mary: the fillies weren't well strung out at the line and Fig Roll, beaten 3½ lengths by Rizeena, had been beaten 6½ lengths by Sandiva at Naas previously and didn't seem to be suited by the drop back to 5f. Using Fig Roll (4th), Survived (6th) and Alutiq (7th) as a guide to the form, it's difficult to rate the winner much higher than about 100 (RPR), which would put her on a par with recent winners of the race such as Ceiling Kitty (RPR 103) and Langs Lash (RPR 98), well behind the smarter recent winners of this race such as Jealous Again, Flashy Wings, Damson, Attraction, Queen's Logic and Bint Allayl. Trainer Clive Brittain is convinced that Rizeena will stay a mile next year and sees her as a Guineas filly, with the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes her likely next start, followed by the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes (the route followed by Clive's previous Guineas winner Sayyedati), but she possesses plenty of speed and is quite speedily bred (by Iffraaj out of a 7f winner by Statue Of Liberty). On the other hand, she has plenty of physical scope and if longer distances bring about further improvement she could well develop into a Guineas filly. 20/1 looks plenty short enough for the Guineas at this stage.
Of potentially much greater significance, as far as the Guineas is concerned, is tomorrow's Gr.3 Albany Stakes, which sees the unbeaten Sandiva (the likely favourite) tackling the highly-rated Joyeuse and a host of other promising and lightly raced maiden winners, including Wonderfully, Wedding Ring and Kiyoshi. Aidan O'Brien's Bye Bye Birdie, who showed a lot of promise first time out, has not progressed as one had hoped. Although she managed to scrape a maiden win over 5f, she looked outpaced in the Queen Mary and probably needs better ground and a longer trip. |
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I was surprised they ran Bye Bye Bordie so soon after her maiden win n soft ground. Just 3 days. Maybe she will do a Homecoming Queen and improve next season.
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Unlikely sint (that she will do a Homecoming Queen), but you never know!
 After all, Homecoming Queen failed to win any of her first seven races as a two-year-old and finally got off the mark in a Fairyhouse nursery off a handicap mark of 72; it was very hard to believe that she was ever going to develop into a Guineas filly! Another recent Guineas winner Speciosa managed to scrape a Beverley maiden win on her fourth start (RPR 74) and at that stage looked nowhere near pattern class. Fillies do sometimes make rapid and unexpected progress, but it's rather offputting that they chose to drop Bye Bye Birdie to the minimum trip (with cheekpieces) after two defeats at 6f. She's highly regarded and her breeding suggests that she should train on well from two to three (like her dam's siblings Eagle Mountain, Wallace, Sulk and Dank), but it has to be admitted that she's been rather disappointing so far... |
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My concern with Sandiva as a Guineas filly is that she looks exceptionally fast over 6f for this stage of the season. I wonder if she'll stay the mile or even train on next year. On my figures that Naas performance was the quickest I've seen by a 2yo filly for years, if it was as good as it seems and she's in the same form the Albany should be a formality.
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Sandiva comes from a family that tends to stay well and train on well: her half-brother Wentworth (by Acclamation) ran a blinder in yesterday's Britannia Handicap over a mile at Royal Ascot (4th of 27, not beaten far, from a poor draw), her half-sister Irish Cliff (by Marju) won over the minimum trip as a juvenile in Spain and is now a useful miler, her dam Miss Corinne won over middle distances and is half-sister to 12f winner Percy Isle, her grand-dam Percy's Girl (by Blakeney) won over 10f and was a sister to Percy's Lass (11f winner, stayed 12f) and half-sister to the top-class mare Braiswick (10-11f winner, including the Cheshire Oaks). If she takes after the dam's side of her family Sandiva should get further than 6f and should train on from two to three, but one can never be sure about these things: she has shown so much speed in her two races to date that there must be slight doubts (I agree).
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jair1970 28 May 13 12:10
I liked Kiyoshi on debut, Spencer gave her a kind ride alright and she looked the best horse in the race IMO, she's won since, she goes to Ascot & she's owned by the new Classic contenders on the block. Certainly one to keep a close eye on. Hope you were on ? I was impressed with the turn of foot. A definite strong Guineas prospect imo. |
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I suppose it wasn't a bad run by Sandiva behind the impressive winner, but for me that was below what she did last time. I'm not having Fahey's excuse about the ground. Maybe she'll come back later in the year, the Naas run might've took something out of her, I'm not a big fan of the yard though at the top end of the game.
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Headcarriage was worrying?
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Yes, head to the left and looked totally uncomfortable compared to last time, where, personally I don't think the ground was any slower.
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My immediate reaction was that there was something amiss with Sandiva. The head carriage suggests that she wasn't enjoying the fast ground. I expect they will try to get her back for the Lowther. The winner was extremely impressive and would have won even more easily if she had kept a straight course: she deserves to be Guineas favourite at this stage and for once I think the bookmakers got it about right with their quotes of 12/1 and 10/1.
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Yeah I was on.
It's strange how these things go, I watched Kiyoshi in her maiden and she was given the tenderest introduction, so felt she'd go in easily next up which she did. At that point, I just felt she was good and I was hopeful today, but it looked a very good field beforehand today (Sandiva, Joyeuse, Wedding Song, plenty that could be anything). As such she was a nice price. Those looking for hope on those behind can take hope from the fact that the ground was pretty quick but Spencer gave her the sweetest of rides, unhurried, bringing her through patiently and bounding clear whilst going 1 right for every two forward. Big plus is the owner: Guineas sponsor, so anyone on should get a run, fitness permitting [Oddly the first 3 races were all won by horses held up dead last today.] |
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Time to reflect on the juvenile fillies events at Royal Ascot.
The first thing to say about the Gr.3 Albany Stakes is that it looked a cracking renewal of the race beforehand, chock-full of promising maiden winners, and it threw up a well above average winner in Kiyoshi. There may have been excuses for heavily backed favourite Sandiva (trainer Richard Fahey reckoned that his filly didn't enjoy the firm ground), but even allowing for the possibility that she ran a bit below her previous Naas form (Heart Focus finished closer to her this time than was the case at Naas), the winner looked in a different class, coming from well off the pace and quickening up like a very smart filly to make up several lengths and then sprint clear (despite veering across the track) to win with plenty in hand. The form has a rock-solid look to it, with the smart Sandiva finishing second, the highly regarded Joyeuse third and the useful Heart Focus (previously rated RPR 99) providing a good yardstick in fourth (beaten 4 lengths). The form is given a further boost by the fact that there was another two lengths back to the remainder, headed by previously unbeaten fillies Wedding Ring, Lucky Kristale and Wonderfully, followed home by other last-time-out winners in 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th. At this stage Kiyoshi looks a better prospect than any of the other recent winners of the Albany, including last year's ill-fated winner Newfangled. The latter was made 10/1 favourite for the Guineas straight after last year's Albany, so Kiyoshi looks fairly priced at similar odds for next year's Guineas. Her breeding suggests that she should relish a step up to a mile next year, she has a lovely fluent action and a good temperament (I'm not at all concerned about her wayward steering once she went clear in the final furlong) and is certainly the best filly seen out so far this season. Sandiva is clearly a smart filly and will be hard to beat in Gr.3 company when stepped up to 7f next time: the Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket or Prestige Stakes at Goodwood would be a suitable next target, but she won't want it too firm. Things didn't quite work out for Joyeuse (she found herself a bit far back and short of room before staying on well when the race was all but over), but she remains a filly of considerable potential and is clearly progressing along the right lines (she reportedly sparkled in her work a few days before the Albany). Wonderfully ran well in the circumstances and will improve for a longer trip. The Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes looked a competitive race on paper, but the result suggests that it wasn't a terribly strong renewal. The winner has been given a Racing Post Rating of 107, which looks excessive: I find it very hard to believe that Fig Roll (beaten 3½ lengths in fourth) improved by 9lbs on her Naas performance (when beaten 6½ lengths by Sandiva) or that Tim Pitt's filly One Chance, a 66/1 shot on the strength of a Warwick maiden win, ran to a mark of 96 in finishing third. Nevertheless, Rizeena is clearly a very useful and progressive filly, who will have no trouble stepping up to 6f later in the season. Trainer Clive Brittain is reportedly keen to aim her at the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes next time, which will give us a much better idea of her Guineas prospects. None of the beaten fillies make much appeal as far as the Guineas is concerned. Wind Fire, the only filly in the race, ran a blinder to finish third for trainer David Brown in the Gr.2 Norfolk Stakes, but she will need to improve further to take a hand in the top fillies' races later in the season. Latest betting for the Guineas: 10/1 Kiyoshi, 20/1 Rizeena, 20/1 Sandiva, 20/1 Joyeuse. There was a little bit of 12/1 available (to limited stakes) about Kiyoshi straight after the Albany, but it only lasted a few minutes. She's only 7/1 and 8/1 in places, but 10/1 looks a fair price and she's now my principal bet for the Guineas. |
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......Latest betting for the Guineas: 10/1 Kiyoshi, 20/1 Rizeena, 20/1 Sandiva, 20/1 Joyeuse. There was a little bit of 12/1 available (to limited stakes) about Kiyoshi straight after the Albany, but it only lasted a few minutes. She's only 7/1 and 8/1 in places, but 10/1 looks a fair price and she's now my principal bet for the Guineas.
Agreed. Was very impressed with Kiyoshi's performance. There was a feeling you were witnessing something special |
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Nice one Jair.
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Trainer Charlie Hills, appearing in the Jury in Monday's Racing Post, says of Kiyoshi: "She has done it very well and the way she picked up was impressive. She's very exciting as we hadn’t done a lot with her. We're not going to rush her and she'll run over seven furlongs next time. Whether we then go for the Fillies' Mile, we'll see, but it’s a possible aim. She's also in the Moyglare."
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That's more like it! Bye Bye Birdie, who was a bit disappointing in the Queen Mary (not well drawn, outpaced on the fast ground, never got into it), bounced back to form at the Curragh this afternoon to capture the Gr.3 Grangecon Stud Stakes by a comfortable 3 lengths. I'm a bit surprised that she went off such a big price (9/2), considering she was beaten only half a length on debut behind Bolger's more experienced filly Heart Focus (5/4F). The step back up to 6f (on better ground) suited her and the application of a visor clearly helped to sharpen her up her, as she's reportedly quite a lazy filly. Last year's winner Sendmylovetorose went on to win the Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes and Aidan O'Brien's last winner of this race Listen went on to be second in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes before winning the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile; it remains to be seen whether Bye Bye Birdie can progress to those heights, but today she started to fulfil the promise she showed on debut and hopefully she will go on from here. She will stay further. Heart Focus ran OK in second and was clear of the remainder. She probably ran more or less up to her previous level of form behind Sandiva (at Naas) and Kiyoshi (in the Albany).
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Aidan O'Brien on Bye Bye Birdie: "She had the headgear on today as Joseph thought she was keeping plenty to herself. She came back from Ascot four kilos heavier, so that's usually a sign that they are not overdoing it. She can go anywhere now. She has loads of ability."
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'She has loads of ability' is a particularly striking turn of phrase from Aidan.
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