Forums

Horse Antepost

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
jamesp
25 May 13 12:44
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 2,468 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
After some unpredictable results in 2009 (Ghanaati), 2011 (Blue Bunting) and 2012 (Homecoming Queen), the reputation of the 1000 Guineas as a good 'trends race' for antepost punters (with most winners of the race having already shown smart form in pattern company as juveniles) was restored this year by the victory of Sky Lantern, who had won at Group 1 level as a two-year-old.  It may seem a bit early to be setting up a new thread on next year's race, but it is worth noting that 13 of the last 24 winners of the race had already made their racecourse debut by the end of June in their two-year-old season (5 of the last 11 winners of the race had made their juvenile debut by the end of May), e.g. Attraction (29 April 2003), Finsceal Beo (23 April 2006), Natagora (1 May 2007), Homecoming Queen (30 April 2011), Sky Lantern (24 May 2012).

Here's a list of the top fillies so far this season (up to 22 May, with their Racing Post Ratings, Timeform rating where known in brackets, and form figures):

92  Sandiva (R.Fahey)   -1
91  (98p)  Beldale Memory (C.Cox)   -11
90  (91p)  Fast (R.Hannon)   -1
89  Heart Focus (J.Bolger)   -231
88  (86p)  Bye Bye Birdie (A.O'Brien)   -2
87  Alutiq (E.Johnson Houghton)   -131

Sandiva looked an above average prospect when scooting away with a modest maiden race at Nottingham recently and, being by a Guineas winner out of a mare that won at up to 11f, she looks sure to improve when stepped up in trip.  Beldale Memory, who has already earned some black type after readily winning the Marygate Stakes (Listed) at York on her second start, looks sure to make her mark in pattern company this season but is speedily bred (by Camacho out of a 5f winner by Primo Dominie) and unlikely to stay a mile.  Richard Hannon has already sent out several winning two-year-old fillies this season, the most impressive of which was the aptly-named Fast, who showed blistering speed to burn off her rivals at Chepstow first time out.  None of the speedy Hannon-trained fillies I have seen on the track this season strike me as possible Guineas types.  The only filly that has really caught my eye so far this season is Bye Bye Birdie, narrowly beaten on debut at Naas in a maiden race which Aidan O'Brien has used to introduce some of his best fillies in recent seasons:

2012 Delight (6th, beaten 10 lengths)
2011 Maybe (1st, won by 4½ lengths) RPR 92
2010 Together (3rd, beaten 4½ lengths) RPR 71
2009 Lillie Langtry (2nd, beaten 2½ lengths) RPR 80
2008 Heart Shaped (3rd, beaten 3½ lengths) RPR 80

Last year's representative was well beaten and ultimately proved disappointing, but Aidan's four previous runners all turned out to be high class performers at around a mile.  Bye Bye Birdie showed considerable promise first time out, showing a good cruising speed and coming to win her race before being worried out of it close home by the more experienced Jim Bolger-trained winner Heart Focus.  The winner and runner-up both hold entries in the Gr.2 Railway Stakes and the Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes and Bye Bye Birdie, who will appreciate faster ground than she encountered at Naas, looks nailed on for a maiden (she is scheduled to run at the Curragh today) before going on to much better things in the future.  She is bred to get a mile next season: she is by Oasis Dream (like Aidan's Irish 2000 Guineas winner Power) out of Slink (by Selkirk), an unraced sister to Prix Marcel Boussac winner Sulk and half-sister to top-class 10-12f performer Eagle Mountain, very useful miler Wallace (Gr.3 placed) and 8-9f winner (including Gr.3) Dank.  At Naas she looked a nice sort of filly, with scope for improvement.  I'll be surprised if she fails to make her mark in pattern company.  I have taken 33/1 for the Guineas (not a great price, considering Maybe was the same price after winning the same Naas maiden by 4½ lengths a couple of years ago!).  She should win comfortably this afternoon (unless there is a really smart sort among the newcomers).
Pause Switch to Standard View 1000 GUINEAS (2014)
Show More
Loading...
Report jamesp April 29, 2014 11:20 PM BST
I agree with geoff m regarding Vorda: I can't believe she's such a massive price.  Philippe Sogorb said after the Prix Imprudence: "It may have looked like she had a good run, but it was not ideal for her as she hit the front much too soon. She likes to run at others rather than the other way around."  Christophe Lemaire will surely ride her differently at Newmarket and if she stays she's the one they all have to beat (granted luck in running). She is reportedly in phenomenal form.
If Betimes wins I will give up ante post betting!!
Report cryoftruth April 30, 2014 3:00 AM BST
Hard to be confident as the lack of a really serious star makes all entries keen to have a go. I found it hard to rule out any of the runners for certain. Unbeaten horses are a seriously unknown quantity and "could be anything" to use a cliche.

The one I like best is Miss France. Her win in the Oh So Sharp Stakes last year was full of promise, coming from last to first and then dossing in front, and that over an inadequate 7 furlongs - she needs a mile. She has the necessary stamina and looked to have the class and the scope as well. They have given her experience of HQ Which can be important - not all horses take to the undulations, and this suggests they always thought of her as a Guineas filly.

I am not at all concerned about her reappearance race, it was a prep and a pipe opener and that's it.

I think she should be favourite and as often happens there has been an over reaction to her prep race.

Having said all that I would see her as a 6/1 favourite in a race as open as this one.
Report cryoftruth April 30, 2014 3:05 AM BST

If Betimes wins I will give up ante post betting!!


James

I would warn against such rash promises. I remember a few years ago my buddy saying something similar. It was at the start of the QEII at Ascot when a top class field was led in the early stages by a handicapper trained up North called Buzzards Bay. " If this wins I'll eat the Hoover" was the claim. The rest of course including the 50/1 SP is history. He never ate the Hoover though - welsher!
Report the bairn April 30, 2014 12:34 PM BST
cryoftruth has summed up my very own thoughts on the race quite beautifully, I just hope he is right. every  horse seems have a question mark against it in some form. cheers.
Report deepingfox April 30, 2014 11:32 PM BST
Cryoftruth, please keep on seeking the golden nuggets in AntePost betting, even if BETIMES wins the 1000 Guineas.

Its long-odds that she will win, I know, but I think she had a better than 80/1 chance to win when I backed her on Monday after the 5-Day Decs, for sure.

After all the Tapestry, Rizeena, Kiyoshi form in Ireland, was blown out of the water by Chrisellium, at Newmarket a month later, and she started at 33/1, and on form looked to have no chance.

On balance I don't think the market leaders are "all that", and if I had to pick one it would probably be the Course winner MISS FRANCE.

But at the odds it would be
BETIMES 1000 Guineas 40/1 bookies, maybe better on BF.
CAMBRIDGE Oaks 20/1 bookies (got 25's on Monday) - she could be 5/1 or less if she wins Sundays Pretty Polly.

At the mo I have no long-priced alternative to KINGMAN that I am prepared to back with cold-hard cash, and I think the Derby is a picture best left until after Sunday.
Report jamesp May 1, 2014 8:10 AM BST
deepingfox, it was I who made the tongue-in-cheek promise about giving up antepost betting if Betimes wins the Guineas (COT was simply quoting me).  But seriously, it would be a body-blow if Betimes were to break all the trends by winning the classic off the back of a solitary first-time-out all-weather maiden win right at the end of her two-year-old season (in December), following the less-than-predictable wins of Ghanaati (2009), Blue Bunting (2011) and Homecoming Queen (2012)...

More positive noises are emanating from the Vorda camp, with jockey Christophe Lemaire saying: "She has a lot going for her and overall she looks the right type for the Guineas."  If there is a bit of cut in the ground I know that the Hills team will be bullish about Kiyoshi's chances.  Incidentally, I don't agree that the Moyglare form was "blown out of the water" by Chriselliam in the Fillies' Mile: after all, the winner went on to land a Grade 1 race at the Breeders' Cup and Rizeena ran a fine race in second (clear of the smart Ihtimal).  But, like everyone has said, it's a very open-looking race this year.  We should ignore the bare form of the trial races, it all depends on how the fillies have developed over the winter (and how much they have come on for their prep races, if any), how well they have been trained for this race, and how the race develops on the day (the draw, luck in running and jockeyship).  When all these factors are taken into account, it frankly looks a bit of a lottery!  It's usually best to focus on the two-year-old form, as this is often the best guide and pretty much all we have to go on (apart from connections' comments and our interpretation of muddling trial races).  So I'm sticking with Vorda, Rizeena, Kiyoshi, Tapestry, Miss France and Sandiva as the potential winners in my book, and I will hope to break even or limit losses if anything else wins.
Report roobuck May 1, 2014 8:40 AM BST
At all have said it is an incredibly open renewal.

I have backed two. Vorda before the Imprudence and Joyeuse, as per page 1 of this thread.

Vorda was value before the Imprudence for a Cheveley winner and still is after her trial. Clearly the trip is a concern but like a couple of others have said, the price doesn't make sense in relation to others.

The more I look at the race the more actually I am thinking Joyeuse has a chance. I do think she will improve for the step up, personally think there is no issue on that score. Bizarrely I am enthused by the run of Noble Mission. Yes she will improve for the run, but more the hope that they will have learnt that this family clearly do not like being amongst horses and are far more positive with her rather than anchoring her out the back.

Decided that once declared will back both again but e/w.

Good luck all and well done again james for a great thread
Report bazzar May 1, 2014 9:21 AM BST
Agree with you ROOBUCK, if they allow her her head she will relish the situation and she will get 10 furlongs at least.
Have her at all prices from 16s to 33s with street books and bigger on here, only a small bettor, though.
Report ashleigh May 1, 2014 1:27 PM BST
my titania n/r, dirty scope.
Report Millerracing67 May 1, 2014 2:40 PM BST
Shame Plain She looked to hold a gd shout in what looks a very open 1000gns.
Report unclepuncle May 1, 2014 5:18 PM BST
Typical - had 20/1 on her from last year.Cry

Just leaves me with Lucky Kristale at 25/1 - though I did prefer LK out of the two so still hopeful.
Report zilzal1 May 1, 2014 6:15 PM BST
Im going to take the trial form as nonsense, Miss France imo could well be better at 10f and to think fto that a muddling pace trial over 7f would suit is silly

Think 9-1 is massive, hopefully some pace to aim at should see her go very close
Report Graeme83 May 1, 2014 6:59 PM BST
Does fabre have a separate runner for the french 1000?
Report zilzal1 May 1, 2014 7:03 PM BST
Not sure, but he did say that he would be happier at Newmarket because of better ground
Report Tennisboy May 1, 2014 7:42 PM BST
but guineas is 8f not 10?!?!

I don't rate Miss France. IMO she has done nothing to warrant such a short price and there are plenty of others who have proved a lot more. Her last run was terrible.
Report zilzal1 May 1, 2014 7:51 PM BST
A strongly run 8f should be fine. I cannot for the life of me see how a muddling pace at 7 would suit her at all and expect her to leave that run well behind
Report lobster luck May 1, 2014 8:31 PM BST
Who rides Rizeena?  Is Ryan Moore destined for an Irish filly? Richard Hughes could step I guess.
Report Tennisboy May 1, 2014 8:58 PM BST
Might be Hughes indeed.

Why does BetFair shut the market when the entries are declared and open a new one? Slightly annoying if want to lay off any high trades.
Report geoff m May 1, 2014 9:18 PM BST
Why does BetFair shut the market when the entries are declared and open a new one? Slightly annoying if want to lay off any high trades.
2 differing markets ante post and day of the race. You need to ensure laying off high trades before ante post market closes otherwise you could need  a sizeable bank to cover day of race laying of high priced ante post bets.
Report Tennisboy May 1, 2014 9:42 PM BST
Damn it. Lesson learned!!
Report sintonian May 1, 2014 9:52 PM BST
Ryan is going to ride Rizeena I think? He's been riding her on the gallops anyway.
Report Jonny R May 1, 2014 10:20 PM BST
I agree, you cant go on Miss France's last race, it was a slow run race and she didnt show her true running imo, also the trainer said it was used as a trial for the 1000, get on get paid !
Report roobuck May 1, 2014 10:43 PM BST
I'm sorry Miss France backers, yes she did look good at Newmarket but what did she beat and by how far.

She may improve but that form is way below others in the race imo
Report geoff m May 1, 2014 11:09 PM BST
Way below who?
She won very comfortably @ Newmarket and whilst that isnt the strongest form in the book on her previous run she beat the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac winner Indonessiene readily by over a length.
Indonessiene beat Queen Catrine by a couple of lengths in the Boussac so  on that formline Miss France has every chance with the market leaders Razeena and Lucky Kristale.
Second in the Boussac was Lesstalk In Paris who won the G3 Prix De La Grotte on seasonal reappearance.
4th to Miss France on her debut win was Xcellence who won the Prix Imprudence trial on reappearance
Report geoff m May 1, 2014 11:24 PM BST
taking it a step further 6th in the Boussac was Wonderfully who had finished 3 lengths behind |Rizeena & just over a length behind |Ihtimal in the Fillies Mile @ Newmarket.
7th in the Boussac was Sandiva who won the nell Gwyn on reappearance.
Miss France deserves her place amongst the market leaders. If you do the math theres every reason to rate her in front of Rizeena.
Report roobuck May 1, 2014 11:31 PM BST
Yes but Lesstalk In Paris has overturned the form in the Prix de la Grotte and you could argue that Excellence has improved past Miss France being that Miss France also ran in the imprudence. You cannot use that form as a positive whilst saying it shouldn't be used against Miss France.

The reality is that she won the Oh Sharp Stakes by less than a length against horses that have failed to frank the form.

I'm not saying she cannot win but will argue against the fact she should be favourite and that 9/1 is 'massive'
Report geoff m May 1, 2014 11:31 PM BST
Having gone thro that excercise  what intrigued me was Queen Catrine placed in the Duchess Of Cambridge/ Lowther & Prix Marcel Boussac yet @ a staggering 200s or so on here would the 20 odds in front of her in the market finished in front of her in those races?
Think i will take a big price nibble.
Report geoff m May 1, 2014 11:36 PM BST
Well alot of prices in the 1000 appear very generous to me as I see the fav  Rizeena as a shocking price. Ive taken a bucket load of her @ 8s for a trading aspect but quite happy to offload that to the naieve @ 4.5
Report roobuck May 1, 2014 11:37 PM BST
Geoff you are using form from a race that Miss France did not run in.  Yes Miss France won a good maiden, but it was a maiden
Report roobuck May 1, 2014 11:39 PM BST
No agree Rizeena is a shocking price now
Report geoff m May 1, 2014 11:45 PM BST
I think its reasonable to use that maiden(actually conditions race) win as both Miss France and Indonessiene where on 2nd outings Indonessiene had won on her debut so obviously knew the game.

Miss France comments led entering final furlong and quickened clear, pushed out, readily  sounds like she won with a bit in hand.
Report roadrunner46 May 2, 2014 12:04 AM BST
think rizeena has shown shes a very good horse, only beaten at newmarket by a horse that was peaking late in the season, she was having
her 8th race of the year, had raced allover europe in very competitive races. deserves her place at the head of the market IMO.
Report roobuck May 2, 2014 12:11 AM BST
Yes roadrunner but not @ 3/1 .......imo. If you went in at the bigger prices fair enough, but now almost at a price to lay off as she is no value now
Report geoff m May 2, 2014 12:19 AM BST
roadrunner:only beaten at newmarket by a horse that was peaking late in the season
she has been beaten 3 times @ newmarket.
Report roadrunner46 May 2, 2014 12:29 AM BST
rizeena had long season, can be forgiven for that last defeat at newmarket and the winner went onto to prove it was decent group 1 performer. how many group 1 winners are in the 1000 guineas? that last race was just a bonus race IMO. dont think the newmarket track
is a problem. has a very good chance on sunday and should perform like a good fav and make the frame at the very least. 3/1 is short
now, most people on here would of been backing at 9/1 only a few weeks ago.
Report roobuck May 2, 2014 12:35 AM BST
There is a Group 1 winner @ 16/1 currently
Report jamesp May 2, 2014 9:35 AM BST
Personally, I'm a bit sceptical about the form lines involving Miss France, Indonesienne, Queen Catrine and Rizeena.  In the conditions race at Chantilly on 31 August Miss France had about 4 lengths in hand of ordinary fillies like Ghzayel and Honeysuckle Rose, so it's safe to assume that Indonesienne put up a massively improved effort in the Boussac next time (on very soft ground).  It's also safe to assume that Queen Catrine improved significantly for the step up to a mile on soft ground in the Boussac (compared with her earlier form over 6f on good to firm).  There remains a lingering suspicion that Rizeena was not at her best in the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (Clive Brittain felt that her usual sparkle simply wasn't there on that occasion).  I do like Miss France and backed her straight after her Gr.3 win at Newmarket, but at this stage it's all about her potential rather than solid form, and it's hard to rate her above the likes of Rizeena, Vorda, Kiyoshi et al.
PS Queen Catrine may wait for the French Guineas.  We'll find out this morning.
Report thornton reed May 2, 2014 10:27 AM BST
J Wonder, Amazing Maria and Queen Catrine out
Report jamesp May 2, 2014 10:44 AM BST
Cape Factor, My Titania, Balansiya and Al Thakhira also out, leaving 19 runners.  The draw shouldn't be too much of an issue, as the stalls will be placed in the centre of the track, but Vorda is not ideally drawn in 19 (with Joyeuse close to her in 17); on the other side, Bracelet is drawn 2 and Ihtimal 3.  Christophe Lemaire will want to drop Vorda in from her high draw and get some cover.
Report thornton reed May 2, 2014 11:02 AM BST
Couple of antepost losers for me so far but no serious damage done. At current prices I likeKiyoshi and Princess Noor. I think Princess Noir has a better chance of staying than Vorda and there was only 3/4 length between them. She has certainly improved for blinkers andon pedigree a mile should be fine. She certainly handles the dip and she isn't too far off the principals on her Cheveley Park form.  Kiyoshi obviously quirky but has the best piece of form on offer in my eyes and 16s too big.
Report jamesp May 2, 2014 11:20 AM BST
Not sure myself that Princess Noor will be so effective over a mile.  She showed loads of speed in her final two starts (in blinkers) and there is plenty of speed on the dam's side of her pedigree (her dam is a half-sister to the sprinter Land Of Dreams and the grand-dam Sahara Star was a 5f performer).  7f should be fine, but the mile will be unknown territory for her.
Report harry callaghan May 2, 2014 11:24 AM BST
richard hughes rides rizeena
Report harry callaghan May 2, 2014 11:42 AM BST
1 (1)     547-176  Alutiq            3 9-0     Eve Johnson Houghton E J McNamara  93         66/1
2 (11)     1-      Betimes           3 9-0     J H M Gosden          William Buick 86         33/1
3 (2)     81-1      Bracelet          3 9-0     A P O'Brien          R L Moore        106        
4 (12)     1-12      Euro Charline     3 9-0     M Botti          A Kirby        101         16/1
5 (3)     3113-11  Ihtimal           3 9-0     Saeed bin Suroor     S De Sousa    114         8/1
6 (17)     1316-3      Joyeuse           3 9-0 h     Lady Cecil          James Doyle   104         20/1
7 (13)     411D3-      Kiyoshi           3 9-0     C Hills          J P Spencer   111         12/1
8 (10)     26431-4  Lady Lara         3 9-0     A P Jarvis          K Fallon        100         66/1
9 (18)     51365-4  Lamar             3 9-0     J Tate                  L Morris        96         80/1
10 (14) 1124-      Lightning Thunder 3 9-0     O Stevens          Harry Bentley 110         33/1
11 (15) 11611-      Lucky Kristale    3 9-0     G G Margarson          T P Queally   108         8/1
12 (8)     51291-3  Majeyda (USA)     3 9-0     C Appleby          M Barzalona   101         50/1
13 (5)     47302-5  Manderley         3 9-0     Richard Hannon          P J Dobbs        98         80/1
14 (4)     911-6      Miss France       3 9-0     A Fabre          M Guyon        112         8/1
15 (16) 19512-      Princess Noor     3 9-0 p1     R Varian          Andrea Atzeni 111         33/1
16 (7)     112312-  Rizeena           3 9-0     C E Brittain          R Hughes        113         10/3
17 (9)     11217-1  Sandiva           3 9-0     R A Fahey          L Dettori        109         16/1
18 (6)     112-      Tapestry          3 9-0     A P O'Brien          J P O'Brien   112         7/1
19 (19) 11217-2  Vorda             3 9-0     P Sogorb          C P Lemaire   114          12/1
Report Millerracing67 May 2, 2014 12:14 PM BST
Does AOB not have some kind of gents agreement with Moore about riding his horses when not needed by Stoute? I think so.
Report Millerracing67 May 2, 2014 12:16 PM BST
Personally I`am just glad to see the 3 fillies I backed line-up for the race (so far)
Miss France, Rizeena & Tapestry. Cool
Report Tennisboy May 2, 2014 12:31 PM BST
Suspected Hughes would be on board.

Sandiva down to 14s now - got her well over 60s, good draw, trainer said shes in great nick and no rain due. I am feeling optimistic.
Report geoff m May 2, 2014 12:40 PM BST
day of race market now open
Report sj May 2, 2014 7:11 PM BST
Rizeena has every right to be head of the market,but one thing keep nagging me,her dam never beat a horse home at three(yeah i know she was not as good)but for me its still worrying,at least at the price she is now
Report kincsem May 2, 2014 9:53 PM BST
My worry about Rizeena is the final furlong.  She might not get a mile.
Report Millerracing67 May 3, 2014 12:40 PM BST
Don't think the mile will be any probs for her myself.
Report jamesp May 3, 2014 1:09 PM BST
Kiyoshi seems to be out Cry
Report jamesp May 3, 2014 1:14 PM BST
She's lame.  Rotten luck for Charlie and the team.
Report Tennisboy May 3, 2014 4:22 PM BST
I hope they dont split into 2 groups tomorrow like today - that was awful
Report geoff m May 3, 2014 4:49 PM BST
will split @ least 2 you could even get 3.
Haafds guineas was a nightmare they scattered all across the rowley mile.
Report mac99 May 3, 2014 8:31 PM BST
Strong fancy that ihtimal will win the 1000 tomorrow even though Outstrip bombed today Rizeema the danger maybe.
Report Saritamer May 3, 2014 10:43 PM BST
Fancy Ihtimal strongly also,possibly be best over further so may have to be special to win this but really professional and a fast run race could see her run past them up the hill. The Fillies mile at end of last season was a farce of a race that was nearly 5 seconds outside standard on good/firm ground and didn't suit at all.
Report geoff m May 4, 2014 9:43 AM BST
Well @ least the market finally wakes up to the reality what a competitive event this is.
After yesterday probably only 3 or 4 in this field would be a shock/surprise.
Report mac99 May 4, 2014 11:07 AM BST
The watered ground of the last two furlongs that may have contributed to the defeat of kingman yesterday  will help Ihtimal a strong pace would also be useful .
Report gouger May 4, 2014 11:16 AM BST
Congratulations on another brilliant thread James. I haven't contributed but have really enjoyed reading all the opinions and theories expressed on the thread. Looking forward to the 2015 thread. Good luck to everyone with their bets today
Report bosra shame May 4, 2014 12:47 PM BST
Having been confident about Rizeena since September, I am now going off her on race day !
Is this what is called sqeuaky bum time ?
Report FELTFAIR May 4, 2014 1:22 PM BST
This just for Harry.Grin

Looked at the runners for the first time today so have no "all green" book for you to interrogate.Grin

The "clock" horses are Tapestry and Rizeena for what it`s worth, I never trust fillies to replicate form over the Winter.

Have put Tapestry in an each-way Lucky Fifteen and if they all lose I will have lost a round of drinks from my 2000 Guineas winnings.Grin
Report Steamship May 4, 2014 2:20 PM BST
Gone in heavy on Sandiva who I think is overpriced along with Princess Noor. Good luck all
Report ReaseHeath May 4, 2014 3:05 PM BST
very tricky...but I've backed Ihtimal and Sandiva.

Both win only.
Report Pinza May 4, 2014 3:08 PM BST
out go...numbers on racecard
1(nr),2,3,4,8,9,13,14,16, That's four of first six in betting gone (as far as the winner is concerned)

I've a problem with Ihtimal because of the 10f win in Meydan. Normally 8f is maximum win distance. I'm not aware of any winner coming from winter racing in Dubai. They tried with Devotee in 2009 and I may have missed another I'm not aware of.

Problem with Sandiva on basis that the three past Nell Gwyn winners managed a win or 2nd placing in Grp 2 or Gp 1 race and Sandiva has only decent Grp 3 runs.

Also Lucky Crystal won the Lowther. The criteria is placed at Gp 1 level and Lucky K has won two Grp 2 races. It's a tight call on this one though.

Lightning Thunder who scores highly so far was placed in Rockfel and that race produced 17 qualifiers who ran in Gns failed to win

Up until last year no 6f winner that ran over 8f had won.
That stat was broken by Sky Thunder but may effect Joyeuse, Lucky Krystale, Princess Noor and Vorda.

So what's left?
MAJEYDA and TAPESTRY
Report mac99 May 4, 2014 3:20 PM BST
Ground is g/f with little  give ,stick with ihtimal but tricky now gl
Report harry callaghan May 4, 2014 3:39 PM BST
feltfairLaughall good fun

anyone like this euro charline here...really think this is tight but if she does progress after getting bounced allover newmarket last time she may just improve a bit...horrible betting race very tight knit
Report Sandown May 4, 2014 3:45 PM BST
My first and only (I think) contribution to this thread.

Rizeena for me is well ahead on my figs and is a decent price. Savers on Fabre's and Tapestry
Report Sandown May 4, 2014 3:45 PM BST
My first and only (I think) contribution to this thread.

Rizeena for me is well ahead on my figs and is a decent price. Savers on Fabre's and Tapestry
Report Graeme83 May 4, 2014 3:47 PM BST
Money seems to be flying in for Ihtimal
Report Stevie Gerrard May 4, 2014 3:58 PM BST
wd Miss France backers
Very good thread james
Report roadrunner46 May 4, 2014 4:03 PM BST
great thread james thread, and cracking race for viewing purposesHappy. oh so sharp win was good marker.
Report mac99 May 4, 2014 4:06 PM BST
well done  miss france pickers - Ihtimal not a bad run in third .
Report Cmon the Town May 4, 2014 4:15 PM BST
Oh well, I fancied Rizeena since last autumn, but Miss France was also in the reckoning since last year as well.
Report Jonny R May 4, 2014 4:58 PM BST
Use were told - anyone watching that last race (slowly run) she ran in thinking it was no good, listen to what trainer said, it was used as a trial for the 1000 - shes diff speed, up with the pace in a truely run race and nutted the line loverly juberlee Grin
Report jamesp May 4, 2014 6:37 PM BST
The steady early pace meant that it paid to be handily positioned rather than held up at the back of the field.  Full marks therefore to Maxime Guyon, who had the winner in what turned out to be the perfect position (in spite of the trainer's instructions to hold her up in midfield!), tracking the pacesetting Manderley.  Miss France promises to be even better over an extra couple of furlongs.  Lightning Thunder ran a blinder, proving that her Rockfel run was all wrong, and might have prevailed if she had raced slightly more handily.

Rizeena was a bit disappointing and this looked some way below her best form of last season: Clive has made a slow start to the season and his horses have yet to hit form.  Vorda raced a bit keenly through the early stages and was given too much to do; there's still every chance that she will get a mile.  Joyeuse was similarly given too much to do and didn't last home.  Lucky Kristale pulled hard and had no chance of lasting the mile on this occasion.  There was clearly something amiss with the well-backed Tapestry, who was virtually pulled up.  Bracelet failed to progress from her reappearance win and probably wants slower ground and a longer trip.

It  turned out to be a horrible betting race for antepost punters, with so many fancied runners (plus a number of fancied fillies that were withdrawn close to the race) and no stand-out form.  On the whole, it was quite a good result for trends followers, as the winner was a highly rated and progressive Group race winner as a juvenile (and therefore fitted the usual profile for this race established over recent decades).  Well done to all those who backed the winner.
Report Millerracing67 May 4, 2014 6:56 PM BST
Thank GOD Miss France held on & won the 1000gns 2day CoolCoolCool
Would have made it a great wkend had Kingman done the same in yest 2000gns Plain
Glad a stood by my view that Miss France`s trial was a farce of a "race" & to just draw a line through it. Looks a very gd filly & will get further in time (10f).
Report PeteTheBloke May 4, 2014 8:26 PM BST
Thanks Jamesp for a great thread. Intelligent discussion is live and well on the BF forum.

I look forward to the 2015 thread - I daresay it's only a few weeks away...
Report Masterminded May 4, 2014 8:33 PM BST
Great thread and well done to the Miss France backers
Report jair1970 May 5, 2014 11:15 AM BST
Fascinating that Tapestry emulates her dam in looking great at 2 then running no race in the 1000 Guineas...
Report sintonian May 5, 2014 7:29 PM BST
wd James, Miller, Zilzal and any other backers. I personally thought she was a poor price!

There are some interesting post race comments about today. Clive Brittain is ''certain'' Rizeena is better than that and rues not running in a trial. AOB has said he made an error by running Tapestry as he left her ''light''. The runnings of War Command and Tapestry, combined with the weakness on here over the winter, and literally replica scenarios of what happened with Mastercraftsman and Misty For Me. Both to win the Irish Guineas?!
Report sintonian May 5, 2014 7:30 PM BST
* are literally replica
Report jamesp May 5, 2014 10:57 PM BST
It's infuriating to read O'Brien's comments about leaving Tapestry 'light': how is it possible that he manages to get the filly 'too fit', then gives her an easy time by not giving her much work before the Guineas, then reveals after the race that he left her 'light'??  It's not the first time he's made a complete mess of preparing a filly for the Guineas.  Sheer incompetence on his part.  He should have expressed these concerns before the race or not run her at all (thereby saving day-of-the-race punters their cash).

Clive may be rueing the fact he didn't run Rizeena in a trial, so why did he change the successful route he took with Pebbles and Sayyedati??  Another filly that probably wasn't given the chance to show her true form.

It makes the punter's job a whole lot harder if the trainers don't do their job properly! Sad
Report jair1970 May 6, 2014 12:33 AM BST
Brittain is notorious for overrating (and overfacing) his horses so whilst Rizeena had form, it's possible that she isn't as good as he thinks.

Regards O'Brien, similarly, his proclamations rarely bear good scrutiny. He says he left her 'light' WTF? He's taken to blaming himself for defeats recently and it's just meaningless chatter.

Like I said, her dam bombed out in this race too, maybe she's not trained on?

War Command was always prepping for Ireland.  He seems to do this every year now with a likely type.  Very frustrating but Mastercraftsman, Roderic O'Connor, Power all did the same...
Report sintonian May 6, 2014 8:35 AM BST
We'll see how she runs next. If AOB didn't believe Tapestry was still a decent horse I doubt he would be saying those things. Now he has put pressure on himself to get ger right as people will be expecting improvement now.



Speaking at the Curragh, he said: "She was a little bit light and the trainer shouldn't have run her. She was fit here when we took her here to gallop and, although she worked well, I was a little bit worried she was too fit then.

"Because of that I didn't do much work with her before the Guineas; I did two bits of work with her with Bracelet and she was a lot better. When she worked so well I let her run, but I had it in my head that she was too light and Joseph said she cantered down to the four [furlong marker] and he knew she wasn't going to win so he eased up on her. It was trainer error.

"I'll give her a break and try to get the condition back on her then hopefully go again."
Report sintonian May 6, 2014 8:40 AM BST
Remember, she was being layed at 30/1+ in the week previous so someone knew she was not going to be fit. Market is a great indicator re AOB's classic horses (ante-post). THEY gamble alright!
Report jamesp May 6, 2014 9:32 AM BST
I doubt if the owners fiddle with the small amounts available in the antepost market on Betfair, but perhaps some of the stable staff do.  Anyway, it wouldn't surprise me now if Tapestry went on to win the Irish Guineas (if she's ready in time!) or the Coronation Stakes.

jair1970, Tapestry's dam Rumplestiltskin sustained a career-ending injury when she was beaten in the Guineas won by Speciosa; it's impossible to know for sure whether she trained on or not.
Report sintonian May 6, 2014 11:21 AM BST
Yep I don't mean the owners but the stable staff definitely get involved.
Report Figgis May 6, 2014 12:52 PM BST
That Moyglare form is still suspect, in my view.
Report jamesp May 6, 2014 1:52 PM BST
Well figgis, the Moyglare form hasn't exactly been boosted by recent events (including Carla Bianca's disappointing display at Dundalk last month); on the other hand, Tapestry was clearly way below her Moyglare form in the Guineas, and I'm prepared to give Rizeena another chance: if she had managed to reproduce her Fillies' Mile form she would have been entitled to go close in the Guineas.
Report Figgis May 6, 2014 2:01 PM BST
Yes, I'm not suggesting that Tapestry ran anywhere near to her best and it's a run that can be forgotten, although O'Brien's Maybe never recaptured her form after disappointing in the Guineas. The Fillies Mile form may have been franked somewhat with the winner going on to win in America but it is still a bit shaky with the pace of the race being so slow. I still think Rizeena's best run was in the Queen Mary and I've not seen her repeat that since.
Report Stevie Gerrard May 6, 2014 2:13 PM BST
Figgis,
How many pounds would an average 1000g winner be behind an averages 2000g winner on your figures?
Report Figgis May 6, 2014 2:23 PM BST
Stevie, the average for my 2000g winners has gone up in recent years, even excluding Frankel from distorting the averages, whereas 1000g winners averages have remained very similar, although I had Sky Lantern a few pounds above average last year. I'd say usually the difference is anywhere between 6 and 10 pounds, if that helps.
Report Stevie Gerrard May 6, 2014 2:39 PM BST
yes I'm thinking around 10lb myself, I can remember a few years ago before doing my own figures I thought Ghanaati had a decent chance against Rip Van Winkle and Paco Boy, not that I had a bet mind but she got well beat and I thought she must have run some way below form. Having gone back and done some figures since, I now think she wasn't quite as good as I thought she was at the time.

Again last year I gave a huge figure for Kiyoshi in the Albany after adjusting the allowance too much, but without many seasons of figures to go on I thought it was a plausible figure but now having gone back and rated many past albanys and other 2yo races I realised it wasn't.
Report Figgis May 6, 2014 2:45 PM BST
SG, for me the average difference between the two sexes at the top end of the scale over a mile has been bigger in recent years, although Sky Lantern did manage to bridge the gap a bit last year. I don't know if this is just due to a good recent period for colts or if this is a long term trend, as it's remained the case for a few years now I suspect the latter.
Report Figgis May 6, 2014 3:00 PM BST
As for Ghanaati, I thought her Coronation Stakes win was an improvement on her Guineas victory and the fillies allowance gave her a good chance in the Sussex, I'm sure she ran below form in the event but I had RVW improving a bit for the drop back to a mile so in my opinion he would've beaten her even if she'd been on form.
Report Stevie Gerrard May 6, 2014 3:11 PM BST
You do get these exceptional fillies coming along like Zarkava, Goldikova, black caviar and treve etc that can compete with and beat the best colts but they are normally way ahead of the other fillies around. Don't think I've seen a 3yo filly this season that will reach those levels.
Report Figgis May 6, 2014 3:17 PM BST
No me neither. I'm hoping Sky Lantern can make what I would call typical improvement from 3 to 4 this year, as I think she could be up with very good fillies/mares like Moonlight Cloud and Goldikova if she does. I never take such improvement for granted, though, and don't factor it in until I see proof.
Report Millerracing67 May 6, 2014 5:05 PM BST
Did not like the look of Tapestry in the paddock before the 1000gns myself.
She looked very light behind the saddle for me, looked more like a greyhound than a racehorse imo. Would have concerns about her atm in that condition, looks like she needing a gd dinner (& plenty of).
Thought Razeena ran like a filly just short of top fitness & looked like she had done well to my eye from 2/3yrs. Travelled well in behind the pace, just a touch keen (fresh).
Would expect to see her take a gd step forward for the run & she could well be the one to beat in the Ire 1000gns. Will be interesting if the 2nd&3rd turn-up their to take her on.
Report Stevie Gerrard May 6, 2014 5:13 PM BST
Interesting stuff miller, those paddock views always very helpful and seems to back up what the trainers were saying.
Report sintonian May 7, 2014 12:04 PM BST
Lydia Hislop's view of Tapestry/Rizeena.

'' It was bizarre to see Tapestry backed into 4/1 favourite in the minutes prior to the off, given her far-from-appealing paddock appearance. I described her as "very fit, sparely made, lean". Her popularity was probably more a product of the lack of confidence in any previous market leaders.

She lost her position quickly in the Dip and was eased immediately. Trainer Aidan O'Brien has since stated that he regrets running her and plans to "give her a break and try to get the condition back on her". She must be a doubtful Oaks runner. To my mind, her appearance and demeanour only lend weight to my concern that, like her dam and siblings, she has not trained on.

Stablemate Bracelet, who finished 14th, did not enhance her Oaks claims as I expected. She looked well in her coat and was relaxed beforehand but got outpaced and made little impact. She may well stay 12 furlongs but she isn't good enough on this showing.

Rizeena was on her toes, sweating and then increasingly edgy in the paddock prior to her seasonal debut in the Guineas. She was a little keen in the race and could only keep on at the one pace. She may be more effective short of a mile. Neither pedigree nor temperament offers Oaks encouragement.''
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com