Trends for the past 10 runnings of the Poule d'Essai des Poulains below (http://tinyurl.com/cggtqbh):
Age Race for 3yos
Breeding Irish bred: 4-9-46 American bred: 4-3-30 French bred: 1-5-27 British bred: 1-2-22 Other: 0-0-3 Irish & American bred horses have won 8 of last 10 from 59.4% of total runners 8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner (1 exception by Danzig who won all 3 career starts before an injury ended his career prematurely, other exception by Verglas, who was 2nd in Irish 2000 Guineas) 7 of 10 winners were by a sired who won or placed in a group 1 over 5F to 1M (1 exception was Danzig and other 2 sires had finished in first 2 in the Arc) 10 of 10 winners were born before 10th April
Recent/Past Form 9 of 10 winners won on one or both of their first 2 runs as a 2yo 9 of 10 winners had had between 4 and 8 career starts 10 of 10 winners had 1 to 3 previous runs that season 9 of 10 winners had run in the past 30 days 7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time 8 of 10 winners (last 4) posted an RPR of 106+ on last turf start 8 of 10 winners ran at Longchamp last time out 6 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race 5 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a group 1 (other 5 were having first try in a group 1) 8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F 5 of 7 French trained winners had won at Longchamp over 7F or 8F (1 exception was 2nd in 7F group 1 and 3rd in 1M group 3 on two course starts & other was having first run here) All 3 Godolphin winners since 2000 ran in UAE Derby or UAE 2000 Guineas on previous start
Other Races Prix De Fontainebleau winner (Gengis): 11739109 (3-1-8) Prix Omnium winner (): 616616 (2-0-6) Vintage Stakes winner (Olympic Glory): 12 (1-1-2) Tattersall Stakes winner (Havana Gold): 153 (1-1-3) Prix Machado winner (Anodin): 1502 (1-1-4) Prix Jean Luc Lagardere winner (Olympic Glory): 123d906 (1-1-6) Prix Thomas Bryon winner (US Law): 61 (1-0-2) Prix Des Melezes winner (Gengis): 961 (1-0-3) Greenham Stakes winner (Olympic Glory): 2702 (0-2-4) Prix Djebel winner (Style Vendome): 43020 (0-2-5) Prix Caius winner (Mutin): 30 (0-1-2) Prix La Flèche winner (Penny's Picnic): 49 (0-0-2) Prix Francois Boutin winner (Style Vendome): 800 (0-0-3) Prix des Chenes winner (Pearl Flute): 670 (0-0-3) Prix du Perche winner (Etalondes): 4478 (0-0-4) 7 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De Fontainebleau last time out, finishing 114d6133 3 of 7 French-trained winners ran in Prix Jean Luc Lagardere, finishing 142 3 of 7 French-trained winners ran in Prix Omnium, finishing 112 2 of 7 French-trained winners ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 72 2 of 3 non-French-trained winners ran in the Vintage Stakes, finishing 14
Trainers Aidan O’Brien (2-5-22) has won 3 of the last 11 renewals and seen 7 of his 22 make the frame in past 10 years. Andre Fabre (2-2-8) trained the winner in 2003 & 2010 and has seen 4 of his 8 runners make the places in past 10 renewals. Didier Guillemin (1-0-1) won this in 2011 with Tin Horse, his only representative in the race. Jean-Claude Rouget (0-2-8) has seen 4 of his 8 runners make the first 4 while Nicolas Clement (0-1-1) and Richard Hannon (0-1-4) have each saddled a placed finisher. Freddie Head (0-0-3), John Gosden (0-0-3) & Robert Collet (0-0-6) have failed to saddled a placed finisher from their collective 12 runners in last 10 runnings. British based trainers (1-3-36) have won just 1 of the last 10 despite having represented almost 30% of the total runners. Irish trained runners (2-7-27) have also won 2 of the last 10, when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record reads 0-2-5.
Draw If you omit 2004 when there were only 7 runners the draw stats read: Horses drawn 1 to 4: 3-9-36 Horses drawn 5 to 8: 4-3-36 Horses drawn 9 to 12: 1-3-32 Horses drawn 13 or higher: 1-3-17 10 of 11 renewals with 10+ runners since 2000 have been won by a horse drawn 9 or below.
Price No really strong trends on prices with the 4 winners between 2003 and 2006 all going off shorter than 7/1 and last 6 winners going off 33/1, 21.5/1, 7/1, 10/1, 10/1 & 33/1. Favourites (3-3-11) have won 3 runnings in the last 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 0.39.
Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: • Irish or American bred • Sired won a group 1 over 5F to 1M (or placed in an Arc) • Born before 10/04/2010 • Had 4 to 8 career starts • Won one or both of first two starts as a 2yo • Ran at Longchamp last time out • Run in past 30 days • Posted an RPR of 106+ on last turf start • Finished in first 4 in a group 1 (or having first try in a G1) • Won over 7F or 8F (ideally at Longchamp) • Finished in first 4 in Prix Jean Luc Lagardere and/or Vintage Stakes as a 2yo • Finished in first 3 in Prix Omnium • Finished in first 3 in the Prix De Fontainebleau last time out • Drawn 9 or lower • Trained in France or by Aidan O’Brien
Unlike our Guineas there doesn't look to be any obvious star milers here, but this race does have more strength in depth than ours and I'd say it looks better than most renewals of the race. It's impossible to be confident as I have only a few pounds between, Olympic Glory, Intello, Havana Gold, Style Vendome and Gale Force Ten. Gale Force Ten is a doubtful stayer and Havana Gold was very poor last time so I couldn't have those two. Olympic Glory narrowly tops my ratings on his Lagardere win, he wasn't very impressive in the Greenham but there was a noticeable lack of pace on so that may have been the reason. On the other hand, he's a short price for a horse I can't be sure has trained on. Many people were talking about the time Hot Snap put up at the Craven meeting but I was more impressed with Intello's performance on the same day, at the prices he looks hard to keep out of the frame, given a truly run race, which we don't always get here.
Unlike our Guineas there doesn't look to be any obvious star milers here, but this race does have more strength in depth than ours and I'd say it looks better than most renewals of the race. It's impossible to be confident as I have only a few pounds