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Racecaller08
10 May 13 09:59
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Date Joined: 15 Feb 08
| Topic/replies: 73 | Blogger: Racecaller08's blog
Trends for the past 10 runnings of the Poule d'Essai des Poulains below (http://tinyurl.com/cggtqbh):

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
Irish bred: 4-9-46
American bred: 4-3-30
French bred: 1-5-27
British bred: 1-2-22
Other: 0-0-3
Irish & American bred horses have won 8 of last 10 from 59.4% of total runners
8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner (1 exception by Danzig who won all 3 career starts before an injury ended his career prematurely, other exception by Verglas, who was 2nd in Irish 2000 Guineas)
7 of 10 winners were by a sired who won or placed in a group 1 over 5F to 1M (1 exception was Danzig and other 2 sires had finished in first 2 in the Arc)
10 of 10 winners were born before 10th April

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won on one or both of their first 2 runs as a 2yo
9 of 10 winners had had between 4 and 8 career starts
10 of 10 winners had 1 to 3 previous runs that season
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 30 days
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time
8 of 10 winners (last 4) posted an RPR of 106+ on last turf start
8 of 10 winners ran at Longchamp last time out
6 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race
5 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a group 1 (other 5 were having first try in a group 1)
8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
5 of 7 French trained winners had won at Longchamp over 7F or 8F (1 exception was 2nd in 7F group 1 and 3rd in 1M group 3 on two course starts & other was having first run here)
All 3 Godolphin winners since 2000 ran in UAE Derby or UAE 2000 Guineas on previous start

Other Races
Prix De Fontainebleau winner (Gengis): 11739109 (3-1-8)
Prix Omnium winner (): 616616 (2-0-6)
Vintage Stakes winner (Olympic Glory): 12 (1-1-2)
Tattersall Stakes winner (Havana Gold): 153 (1-1-3)
Prix Machado winner (Anodin): 1502 (1-1-4)
Prix Jean Luc Lagardere winner (Olympic Glory): 123d906 (1-1-6)
Prix Thomas Bryon winner (US Law): 61 (1-0-2)
Prix Des Melezes winner (Gengis): 961 (1-0-3)
Greenham Stakes winner (Olympic Glory): 2702 (0-2-4)
Prix Djebel winner (Style Vendome): 43020 (0-2-5)
Prix Caius winner (Mutin): 30 (0-1-2)
Prix La Flèche winner (Penny's Picnic): 49 (0-0-2)
Prix Francois Boutin winner (Style Vendome): 800 (0-0-3)
Prix des Chenes winner (Pearl Flute): 670 (0-0-3)
Prix du Perche winner (Etalondes): 4478 (0-0-4)
7 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De Fontainebleau last time out, finishing 114d6133
3 of 7 French-trained winners ran in Prix Jean Luc Lagardere, finishing 142
3 of 7 French-trained winners ran in Prix Omnium, finishing 112
2 of 7 French-trained winners ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 72
2 of 3 non-French-trained winners ran in the Vintage Stakes, finishing 14

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (2-5-22) has won 3 of the last 11 renewals and seen 7 of his 22 make the frame in past 10 years.
Andre Fabre (2-2-8) trained the winner in 2003 & 2010 and has seen 4 of his 8 runners make the places in past 10 renewals.
Didier Guillemin (1-0-1) won this in 2011 with Tin Horse, his only representative in the race.
Jean-Claude Rouget (0-2-8) has seen 4 of his 8 runners make the first 4 while Nicolas Clement (0-1-1) and Richard Hannon (0-1-4) have each saddled a placed finisher.
Freddie Head (0-0-3), John Gosden (0-0-3) & Robert Collet (0-0-6) have failed to saddled a placed finisher from their collective 12 runners in last 10 runnings.
British based trainers (1-3-36) have won just 1 of the last 10 despite having represented almost 30% of the total runners.
Irish trained runners (2-7-27) have also won 2 of the last 10, when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record reads 0-2-5.

Draw
If you omit 2004 when there were only 7 runners the draw stats read:
Horses drawn 1 to 4: 3-9-36
Horses drawn 5 to 8: 4-3-36
Horses drawn 9 to 12: 1-3-32
Horses drawn 13 or higher: 1-3-17
10 of 11 renewals with 10+ runners since 2000 have been won by a horse drawn 9 or below.

Price
No really strong trends on prices with the 4 winners between 2003 and 2006 all going off shorter than 7/1 and last 6 winners going off 33/1, 21.5/1, 7/1, 10/1, 10/1 & 33/1.
Favourites (3-3-11) have won 3 runnings in the last 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 0.39.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Irish or American bred
•    Sired won a group 1 over 5F to 1M (or placed in an Arc)
•    Born before 10/04/2010
•    Had 4 to 8 career starts
•    Won one or both of first two starts as a 2yo
•    Ran at Longchamp last time out
•    Run in past 30 days
•    Posted an RPR of 106+ on last turf start
•    Finished in first 4 in a group 1 (or having first try in a G1)
•    Won over 7F or 8F (ideally at Longchamp)
•    Finished in first 4 in Prix Jean Luc Lagardere and/or Vintage Stakes as a 2yo
•    Finished in first 3 in Prix Omnium
•    Finished in first 3 in the Prix De Fontainebleau last time out
•    Drawn 9 or lower
•    Trained in France or by Aidan O’Brien

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Replies: 13
By:
jair1970
When: 10 May 13 10:59
Great work.  Bravo.
By:
turnip turns
When: 10 May 13 11:23
2000g


NO. DRAW    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
112     2111-1    Olympic Glory22      3    9-2    Richard Hannon    Richard Hughes     —    123    129
216     411-14    Etalondes38      3    9-2    J-C Rouget    Gregory Benoist     —    84    115
31     23-1    Lion D´Anvers16    3    9-2    J Van Handenhove    Ronan Thomas     —    59    116
46     1313-3    Us Law28      3    9-2    P Bary    Christophe-Patrice Lemaire     —    92    122
53     211-11    Style Vendome38    3    9-2    N Clement    Thierry Thulliez     —    85    124
613     21-2    Dastarhon20      3    9-2    Mme Pia Brandt    Umberto Rispoli     —    —    108
75     2463-1    Gale Force Ten37 p    3    9-2    A P O´Brien    Ryan Moore     —    123    127
810     127-    Flying The Flag239    3    9-2    A P O´Brien    C O'Donoghue     —    89    120
94     70-135    Princedargent28      3    9-2    H-A Pantall    Fabrice Veron     —    94    114
1015     73136-    Pearl Flute192      3    9-2    F-H Graffard    Mickael Barzalona     —    108    120
1111     U112-2    Havana Gold24      3    9-2    Richard Hannon    Jamie Spencer     —    103    119
127     25    My Approach38    3    9-2    Robert Collet    Gerald Mosse     —    52    114
1314     4011-3    Penny´s Picnic38    3    9-2    D Guillemin    Thierry Jarnet     —    116    124
1418     9141-1    Gengis28      3    9-2    G Doleuze    Stephane Pasquier     —    92    123
152     332-11    Bright Strike20    3    9-2    John Gosden    William Buick     —    87    97
169     2111-2    Morandi28      3    9-2    J-C Rouget    Christophe Soumillon     —    101    128
178     22-1    Anodin20 b      3    9-2    F Head    Olivier Peslier     —    58    109
1817     11-1    Intello25      3    9-2    A Fabre    Maxime Guyon     —    99    123



1000g


NO. DRAW    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
15     61541-    Flotilla191      3    9-0    M Delzangles    Christophe-Patrice Lemaire     —    106    124
210     74143-    Sage Melody171    3    9-0    M Delzangles    Umberto Rispoli     —    96    111
311     2112-3    Topaze Blanche28      3    9-0    C Laffon-Parias    Olivier Peslier     —    111    123
412     211-2    Tuna Papita42    3    9-0    F Rohaut    Thierry Thulliez     —    98    113
517     16-1    Zurigha29      3    9-0    Richard Hannon    Richard Hughes     —    97    110
619     1-13    Vaunoise35      3    9-0    J-C Rouget    Gregory Benoist     —    73    114
79     612-15    Show Gorb38    3    9-0    P Sogorb    Francois-Xavier Bertras     —    78    116
818     2114-3    Spinacre38      3    9-0    P Bary    Gerald Mosse     —    73    120
920     463-32    Meri Shika35    3    9-0    J Bertran De Balanda     —    103    118
1014     111-2    Tasaday28      3    9-0    A Fabre    Mickael Barzalona     —    77    118
1113     182-1    Morning Frost59    3    9-0    C Ferland    Julien Auge     —    94    108
124     1711-3    Melbourne Memories22    3    9-0    Clive Cox    Ryan Moore     —    109    113
133     315-44    Dauphine Russe28    3    9-0    F Doumen    William Buick     —    89    117
141     421-51    Baie D´Honneur16      3    9-0    D De Watrigant    Ioritz Mendizabal     —    70    120
1516     250-11    Kenhope28      3    9-0    H-A Pantall    Thierry Jarnet     —    74    120
1615     17-265    Kensea25    3    9-0    H-A Pantall    Fabrice Veron     —    79    116
176     11    Esoterique14      3    9-0    A Fabre    Maxime Guyon     —    103    126
182     1213-1    Alterite47      3    9-0    J-C Rouget    Christophe Soumillon     —    110    122
198     5012-4    Cocktail Queen29      3    9-0    David Elsworth    Jamie Spencer     —    90    115
207     4116-5    Waterway Run25    3    9-0    Ralph Beckett    Jim Crowley     —    112    115
By:
sintonian
When: 10 May 13 11:51
CARNAGE.
By:
turnip turns
When: 10 May 13 12:10
very much so sint,think i'll leave it out tbhCrazy
By:
Lumberg
When: 10 May 13 17:36
What's the ground gonna be like in Paris?
By:
sintonian
When: 10 May 13 18:02
think they are expecting it to be Good. Dry forecast is what I read.
By:
Lumberg
When: 10 May 13 18:20
Thanks Sint
By:
unclepuncle
When: 12 May 13 09:40
Dastarhon @ 100Shocked in the 2,000 and Topaze Blanch @ 8/1 in the 1,000 for me.

Good luck.
By:
Figgis
When: 12 May 13 13:01
Unlike our Guineas there doesn't look to be any obvious star milers here, but this race does have more strength in depth than ours and I'd say it looks better than most renewals of the race. It's impossible to be confident as I have only a few pounds between, Olympic Glory, Intello, Havana Gold, Style Vendome and Gale Force Ten. Gale Force Ten is a doubtful stayer and Havana Gold was very poor last time so I couldn't have those two. Olympic Glory narrowly tops my ratings on his Lagardere win, he wasn't very impressive in the Greenham but there was a noticeable lack of pace on so that may have been the reason. On the other hand, he's a short price for a horse I can't be sure has trained on. Many people were talking about the time Hot Snap put up at the Craven meeting but I was more impressed with Intello's performance on the same day, at the prices he looks hard to keep out of the frame, given a truly run race, which we don't always get here.
By:
Figgis
When: 12 May 13 13:19
Cracking call, uncle, where did you pull that from?? I said Intello would be hard to keep out of the frame but Guyon almost managed it.
By:
bobbyjo
When: 12 May 13 13:25
Goodness me that was unlucky Uncle, great shout
By:
unclepuncle
When: 12 May 13 13:37
Thanks guys - but I only had it for the win.Cry
By:
turnip turns
When: 12 May 13 20:46
2000g.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?fea...layer_embedded&v=g8lwcbzTLrk#!


1000g.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?fea...layer_embedded&v=DJFNG-1QsK0#!
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