**Chester Cup**

114     11655-    Simenon128J    6    9-10    W P Mullins    Johnny Murtagh     107    105    113
26    13558-    Thimaar19J b1    5    9-10    Donald McCain    Graham Lee     107    104    112
316     U/117-    Ile De Re165J      7    9-8    Donald McCain    Jim Crowley     105    101    113
411     78143-    Tominator60J      6    9-3    Jonjo O´Neill50    Tom Queally     100    102    115
519     1/267-    Softsong39J    5    9-0    Philip Hobbs    Adam Kirby     97    —    —
62     82130-    Address Unknown242    6    9-0    Richard Fahey45    Tony Hamilton     97    101    116
71     91033/    Investissement127J    7    9-0    David Pipe    William Twiston-Davies5     97    —    —
817     1310-    Olympiad207    5    8-12    D K Weld64    Pat Smullen     95    110    114
910    111124    Buckland7    5    8-11    Hans Adielsson67    William Buick     94    88    123
108     3857/5    Theology25    6    8-10    Steve Gollings100    Paul Hanagan     93    65    114
1115     14163-    Suraj175J    4    8-10    Michael Bell48    Hayley Turner     97    113    121
1213     71020-    Very Good Day207    6    8-9    Mick Channon54    Kieren Fallon     92    113    116
134     41/12-    Countrywide Flame34J      5    8-9    John Quinn67    Michael O'Connell     92    102    115
149     41120-    Montaser207    4    8-9    David Simcock56    Jamie Spencer     96    109    122
153     61/5-1    Justification24    5    8-8    A P O´Brien91    Ryan Moore     91    37    105
167     0/39-1    Ingleby Spirit25    6    8-8    Richard Fahey45    George Chaloner5     91    93    116
1712     3640-8    Good Morning Star11      4    8-7    Mark Johnston60    Joe Fanning     94    104    120
1818    06775-    Kiama Bay263      7    8-7    John Quinn67    Darren Egan3     90    98    118
195     6365-6    Perennial14    4    8-7    Charles Hills65    Franny Norton     94    105    122

Draw a bit of a worry... but Weld is very sweet on Olympiad.

He's had a lot of winners the last few weeks.

He has mate. He said this is a race he has always wanted to win, but has never had the right horse.

I would say he has had alot of runners mind. So not sure he's in top form yet. But Olympiad has been specifically targeted at this race, which is more than you can say for a few.

I am having a decent each way poke on Pipe's horse INVESTISSEMENT who could be very well in off this mark on old form

OK WTD is not great but 5lbs will count here and he has stall 1

how many Chester Cups have been won by NH trainers in recent years?

Theology for me!

Theology is one of the types of horse I dismiss instantly in flat handicaps and that is:

"5 years old or older and never won a handicap"

This group rarely win a handicap and long term, as a group, they make an absolutely enormous level stakes loss. I know because it is one of the lessons I learnt 25+ years ago directly from Roy Dodd author of the ABC Turf Handicap Manual.

Yes, once in a while, one may win but in the long run it will pay to dismiss all of them. King Of Jazz is another example, 5 years old ran 21 times and never won a handicap yet goes off in the first 3 in the betting virtually every time he runs.

Anyway, just sharing my experience

fair point judorick

but do you know 'technically' Theology has only ran in one turf handicap,two were listed h'cap's and the other was the queens prize on the a/w

yeah i know nit picking.lol

it matters not that they haven't tried it, simply reaching the age of 5 without winning a turf handicap makes them very very unlikely to ever do so

I'm willing to forgive Theology at the prices since he's not been beaten far a couple of times off much higher marks than this and has Chester Form. His comeback run was encouraging enough given the long lay off. Obviously I'll be hoping he improves from that run but has chances if he does. As SJ says he hasn't ran in many handicaps to buck that trend yet.

so what happens if a horse starts his career at three wins maiden then runs in listed group company before returning at 5,do you just put a line through him because he hasn't won a handicap?

only playing devils advocate btw and can see you reasoning but there could be exceptions shirley

did you know Simenon achieved that feat at ascot last season?

dont bet in many handicaps,but i do like reading peoples views/angles sorry judo but Address Unknown won his first h'cap last season at five also

YES sj there are exceptions and you are all welcome to continue backing horses in the hope they are an exception but I suggest you pay attention and see how many actually win over a season if you don't currently

Willie says that he's not expecting too much of Simenon.

i am not saying to back them (if you read my posts) but you cannot just put a line through them because they have not won a handicap by the age of 5,all horses are different(imo)

to to start spouting that i should pay attention(as if i am a silly school child is quite funny) i was was polite and merely trying to help.

Anyway good luck and hope you back many winners

btw very good day,also won his 1st handicap  at 5,as said only joining in the debate and i am sure you have done more research than me on the matter,as i am not a 'stats' man and take each horse on their merits.

Unoriginal but i've backed the favourite CWF. If he is not too knackered from his hurlding campaign he shouldn't be out the first 4 here, won at the track and decent draw.

Agree Sint good thing to me only negative maybe ground?

Personally think he kicked a little too early which ultimately cost him 4th place.